Model 3 v2

[flamingoezz]

Does anyone else get the feeling from Elon's comments early on that his plan for the model 3 is greater than we're getting in version 1? It feels to me like a decision had to be made to cut out certain things to make it to production on time and on budget, and may have even been done strategically to keep a stream of buyers steady even after the tax credits phase out in the US.

Many other manufacturers have stated planned EV launches in 2019 & 2020. By this time, Tesla will certainly run out of tax credits. While they will hold an advantage in battery pricing and have a headstart on working out self-driving tech, I think other manufacturers will be very competitive due to a $7500 incentive. Making a major update to the Model 3 to coincide with this seems to make sense -- perhaps the space ship controls, a finished interior, HUD.

Many of us expected at least one of these things (if not more) at launch, but I think it is a measured move with the demand being what it is, and competition coming in less than 2 years time.

 

[rnelsonee]

My 2 cents is that the Model 3 has always been a $35,000 base price car (so literally an average car), and since there's still an EV premium for cars (it just costs more for the power plant), it's comparable to a ~$27,000 car with EV instead of an ICE. So that's kept my expectations in check.

I don't think anything was cut per se (nothing big anyway), it was just never in the design. This thing is half the cost of a Model S, but there's a hundred things they can't cut the price on by 50%: labor, R&D, raw materials, and the 100+ parts like, say, the windshield, or the seats, or the carpet, etc. So that means there must be entire feature sets that are just not going to be in there, and huge cuts in costs in lots of things on the car.

So I see this as s a whole new concept (vs a Model S lite) and closer to a Prius than 5-series BMW. Not that it's bad or anything: I reserved day 1 because it's still going to have some great features: EV with good range, and the best autopilot around. But I don't expect a lavish interior or a HUD on what I'll call $27,000 car.

Version 2 will be interesting, though, to see what changes. I'm guessing not a whole lot, since when push comes to shove, lower-cost cars outsell higher-cost ones. As soon as Toyota, Honda, GM, etc adopt the format of 'small cells located on the underside', that will keep downward pressure on Model 3 prices. Although I can see it becoming like a 3-series: have a $30k entry price, but allow $60k+ configurations once you option up.

 

[JeffK]

Does anyone else get the feeling from Elon's comments early on that his plan for the model 3 is greater than we're getting in version 1? It feels to me like a decision had to be made to cut out certain things to make it to production on time and on budget, and may have even been done strategically to keep a stream of buyers steady even after the tax credits phase out in the US.

Many other manufacturers have stated planned EV launches in 2019 & 2020. By this time, Tesla will certainly run out of tax credits. While they will hold an advantage in battery pricing and have a headstart on working out self-driving tech, I think other manufacturers will be very competitive due to a $7500 incentive. Making a major update to the Model 3 to coincide with this seems to make sense -- perhaps the space ship controls, a finished interior, HUD.

Many of us expected at least one of these things (if not more) at launch, but I think it is a measured move with the demand being what it is, and competition coming in less than 2 years time.

We don't have to wonder, he's stated publicly that some of the features they will have to hold off until a later version so they don't fall a victim to their own hubris again like with Model X. Ramping up nearly half an order of magnitude from current production levels is no easy feat. Model Y will be even less complex and manufacturing even more automated. I imagine when Model Y comes out we will get some kind of Model 3 refresh.

I'm not creative enough to imagine what these features might be besides slight improvements to what's already going to be included when the performance version of the Model 3 is available.

 

[bcsteeve]

I'm not saying you're wrong... but I think you're grasping at straws. The same ones I grasp at lol.

I think the reality is... this car just isn't as cool as it was built up to be. The HUD? Purely people's imaginations based on the lack of a traditional instrument cluster. "Spaceship"? Elon's view... and what we see is what he feels looks like a spaceship. Considering his other company builds them, I guess he's entitled to define it however he wishes. "Finished interior"? It *is* finished. You may not like it, but that's the design intent they were going for.

At unveil, I was excited level 100. With each and every Tweet, update, spy shot, leak... we're supposed to get more excited - and I think a good number of people are - but I just get more and more disappointed. Don't get me wrong, I'm still at like 80... but I went from "yep, getting two" to "well, we'll see what the price is and I'm probably getting one".

My list of disappointments include:

1) No HUD. I was one of the fools that was sure that was coming. It wasn't a matter of "if", but just how cool it was going to be. I really, REALLY wanted this.
2) Despite Elon growing up in Canada, he seems to fail in understanding what "North America" means. The website STILL says deliveries will be prioritized to "West coast of North America" but, as it has now been widely reported, that means America, not North America (which by all definitions includes Canada and Mexico). Being in Canada (on the West coast), I thought as a Day 1 reservist that I'd get mine in July, August... maybe September. Now it seems next April is more likely. This complaint is partially offset by my next:
3) No AWD. At least not right away. Consolation prize is that it will probably be available by the time Canadians can get it anyway.
4) Yesterday's revelation that the glass roof is "optional". I haven't seen anyone talk about it, but I think that's clear that the $35k price is now complete BS. Not a single non-glass roof car has ever been spotted. Why? They don't exist. This car will launch with only the "optional" roof, which gives them the ability to adjust the price however they wish and make it look like they didn't break any promises. "$35k plus $10k for the roof. Oh, you don't want that? Back of the line!". We'll have to pay for this mandatory "option".
5) Steel in the body. Steel = rust. A huge benefit of the S is that the car can literally last forever. The batteries were the limiting factor, and then people figured out they'll probably last 1.4M miles or something ridiculous like that. The 3? Rusts like anything else. Covering it up with AL is nice, but just hides what we can't see.
6) No HEPA. I assumed that would at least be an option, but it is being widely reported that it is not. Logically speaking, that's not been confirmed... but so far every time I hold on to logic (for example, Musk still has not positively eliminated the possibility of a HUD, but even I have to yield) it turns out that the illogical reporting turns out to be the case.


This "anti-sell" thing Musk is doing, I believe, is flawed. I guess there's some really stupid rich people out there that were confused? OK, so to correct that, you risk turning away a lot of people who were excited. You aren't going to convince someone they suddenly have an extra $60k to spend if they don't. He shouldn't worry about people not buying the S. He should worry about people realizing the 3 isn't any better than a Leaf or a Bolt.

 

[JeffK]

I'm not saying you're wrong... but I think you're grasping at straws. The same ones I grasp at lol.

I think the reality is... this car just isn't as cool as it was built up to be. The HUD? Purely people's imaginations based on the lack of a traditional instrument cluster. "Spaceship"? Elon's view... and what we see is what he feels looks like a spaceship. Considering his other company builds them, I guess he's entitled to define it however he wishes. "Finished interior"? It *is* finished. You may not like it, but that's the design intent they were going for.

At unveil, I was excited level 100. With each and every Tweet, update, spy shot, leak... we're supposed to get more excited - and I think a good number of people are - but I just get more and more disappointed. Don't get me wrong, I'm still at like 80... but I went from "yep, getting two" to "well, we'll see what the price is and I'm probably getting one".

My list of disappointments include:

1) No HUD. I was one of the fools that was sure that was coming. It wasn't a matter of "if", but just how cool it was going to be. I really, REALLY wanted this.
2) Despite Elon growing up in Canada, he seems to fail in understanding what "North America" means. The website STILL says deliveries will be prioritized to "West coast of North America" but, as it has now been widely reported, that means America, not North America (which by all definitions includes Canada and Mexico). Being in Canada (on the West coast), I thought as a Day 1 reservist that I'd get mine in July, August... maybe September. Now it seems next April is more likely. This complaint is partially offset by my next:
3) No AWD. At least not right away. Consolation prize is that it will probably be available by the time Canadians can get it anyway.
4) Yesterday's revelation that the glass roof is "optional". I haven't seen anyone talk about it, but I think that's clear that the $35k price is now complete BS. Not a single non-glass roof car has ever been spotted. Why? They don't exist. This car will launch with only the "optional" roof, which gives them the ability to adjust the price however they wish and make it look like they didn't break any promises. "$35k plus $10k for the roof. Oh, you don't want that? Back of the line!". We'll have to pay for this mandatory "option".
5) Steel in the body. Steel = rust. A huge benefit of the S is that the car can literally last forever. The batteries were the limiting factor, and then people figured out they'll probably last 1.4M miles or something ridiculous like that. The 3? Rusts like anything else. Covering it up with AL is nice, but just hides what we can't see.
6) No HEPA. I assumed that would at least be an option, but it is being widely reported that it is not. Logically speaking, that's not been confirmed... but so far every time I hold on to logic (for example, Musk still has not positively eliminated the possibility of a HUD, but even I have to yield) it turns out that the illogical reporting turns out to be the case.


This "anti-sell" thing Musk is doing, I believe, is flawed. I guess there's some really stupid rich people out there that were confused? OK, so to correct that, you risk turning away a lot of people who were excited. You aren't going to convince someone they suddenly have an extra $60k to spend if they don't. He shouldn't worry about people not buying the S. He should worry about people realizing the 3 isn't any better than a Leaf or a Bolt.

A couple things... first the tweet was "feels" like a spaceship, never "looks" like a spaceship.

Second, there's a very real situation where shipments to Canada and Mexico make sense if it allows the 200,000th US delivery to hit the beginning of a quarter instead of the end.

Even if West Coast Canada deliveries were right after employee cars you'd have never received the car in July or August. There are enough employee orders to saturate these two months, if not most of September as well. Although, this depends on what employees order RWD or not.

As far as AWD it'll be available before you'd be getting a car anyway, so it doesn't matter as you've said.

We knew the glass roof was optional at launch. It wasn't a new revelation, just confirmation.

We knew about the steel in the body well before the Model 3 launch. Don't forget the Model S has some steel parts for support.

We don't know for sure that there's no HEPA filter, it simply isn't on that list.

 

[North75]

5) Steel in the body. Steel = rust. A huge benefit of the S is that the car can literally last forever. The batteries were the limiting factor, and then people figured out they'll probably last 1.4M miles or something ridiculous like that. The 3? Rusts like anything else. Covering it up with AL is nice, but just hides what we can't see.

It was always going to have steel in the body. I always assumed it was going to be mostly steel.
Modern galvanized steel is much better than it used to be. Look up galvannealed steel. The zinc coating is heated after coating which creates a much deeper layer of corrosion resistance. Between galvanneal and I'm assuming better painting techniques car body rust is not nearly the problem that it used to be. I don't know how long you need your car to last. I haven't had any rust on any of my recent cars, with the last 2 reaching 10 years old. (living in PA and MA, so definitely exposed to road salt)

With the new grades of high strength steels the weight penalty over aluminum isn't as bad as it used to be either.

I'm all for the use of steel. The car should be much cheaper to have repaired in a body shop than if it was all aluminum.

(Granted I have no idea what steel and/or aluminum grades Tesla is using on the model 3)

 

[ckessel]

I sure hope there's a better version planned because the features and interior of what we've seen so far is going to have a really hard time competing in the 3-series class Elon has said it's supposed to target. No hatchback, no sun roof, a weird-mobile dash board. I'm sure it'll drive great, but that's not going to be remotely sufficient for mass market. And auto-pilot isn't going to help much. Full autonomous driving is quite a ways off (no, Elon's always optimstic timeline is not realistic) and probably even longer for public acceptance so that's not a useful selling point for some time.

I'm a very early S owner and an early 3 depositer, but I'm feeling quite nervous about the 3's ability to compete with other 30-40k cars.

 

[lunitiks]

Model 3 "v2" will first and foremost be about more FSD-cowbell.

I predict you'll have the option of buying "Enhanced Full Self-Driving Capability" (EFSDC -- SAE Level 3 "plus"), or "Complete Autonomy. Complete. I promise" (CACIP -- SAE Level 4)

 

[BAven8068]

My 2 cents is that the Model 3 has always been a $35,000 base price car (so literally an average car), and since there's still an EV premium for cars (it just costs more for the power plant), it's comparable to a ~$27,000 car with EV instead of an ICE. So that's kept my expectations in check.

I don't think anything was cut per se (nothing big anyway), it was just never in the design. This thing is half the cost of a Model S, but there's a hundred things they can't cut the price on by 50%: labor, R&D, raw materials, and the 100+ parts like, say, the windshield, or the seats, or the carpet, etc. So that means there must be entire feature sets that are just not going to be in there, and huge cuts in costs in lots of things on the car.

So I see this as s a whole new concept (vs a Model S lite) and closer to a Prius than 5-series BMW. Not that it's bad or anything: I reserved day 1 because it's still going to have some great features: EV with good range, and the best autopilot around. But I don't expect a lavish interior or a HUD on what I'll call $27,000 car.

Version 2 will be interesting, though, to see what changes. I'm guessing not a whole lot, since when push comes to shove, lower-cost cars outsell higher-cost ones. As soon as Toyota, Honda, GM, etc adopt the format of 'small cells located on the underside', that will keep downward pressure on Model 3 prices. Although I can see it becoming like a 3-series: have a $30k entry price, but allow $60k+ configurations once you option up.

Finally someone is speaking the truth about this car. Im so tired of people complaining that it doesn't have this or its lacking this feature that all other 35k cars have. Well guess what... your not paying for those features, your paying for the EV technology in this car, the excellent range that it has, and the only charging infrastructure in the industry that allows you to actually use that range. Trust me my Model X isn't 100k nice on the inside, I paid for the drivetrain and the charging infrastructure that would allow me to finally utilize an EV as an everyday car.

The people complaining about this car not being "luxury" enough for the price are obviously not buying this car because of the above EV benefits and are completely over looking the point of owing a Tesla. Go buy your BMW 3 series if you want something that looks pretty inside and makes you feel good.

I still don't understand why we are trying to compare these cars to other ICE cars because we aren't at that point yet, we are still paying premiums for the EV technology.

 

[bcsteeve]

A couple things... first the tweet was "feels" like a spaceship, never "looks" like a spaceship.

Are you really saying he meant the tactile sensation of the materials used in a space ship? We both know he meant the experience, which is 90% visual.

Second, there's a very real situation where shipments to Canada and Mexico make sense if it allows the 200,000th US delivery to hit the beginning of a quarter instead of the end.

Customers care about the tax credit. The manufacturer only cares insofar as it bumps sales. Tesla couldn't give a crap, because they'll sell out whether or not you get your credit. If you don't buy it, someone else will. I just can't see them making adjustments on delivery schedules to maximize credits for which they see zero benefit. He already has shown he thinks it necessary to "anti sell" because he figures everyone can "just by an S". As a billionaire, naturally he's a little out of touch

Even if West Coast Canada deliveries were right after employee cars you'd have never received the car in July or August.

That's been made clear, sure. But I was expressing my disappointments since unveil. At unveil there was no guesses at all as to production volume. For all we knew, employees would be satisfied on Day 1 and Day 2 I could have my car. Since he discussed the weekly expected figures, we could start to make guesses. My point? The fact we now know I was never going to get my car in July doesn't mean I couldn't be disappointed once that became clear.

We knew the glass roof was optional at launch. It wasn't a new revelation, just confirmation.

Umm... we did? You find me THAT quote. What we SAW was a glass roof on every unit, right? And I think you missed my point. It *isn't* going to be an option. It is going to be *called* an option. You wait and see. You won't be able to order one without a glass roof. Not if you want it before 2019. They've given themselves a way to price the car however they need to and still be able to say to the media that it is a $35k car.

Yes, I'm predicting. Of course I can be wrong. I won't be though

We knew about the steel in the body well before the Model 3 launch.

No. We didn't. Again... you have a quote/link?

Don't forget the Model S has some steel parts for support.

Yet they don't mention that in the comparison page. Apples to apples. Whatever they're talking about as being steel in the 3 is aluminum in the S. PS. My 2010 Honda is surely "modern" and it has rust at the bottom of every door. I'm not saying it will be a problem, but I'd be happier if it was all aluminum. I could care less about body shop costs... that's insurance's problem.

We don't know for sure that there's no HEPA filter, it simply isn't on that list.

Well, you're making the point I kept making... that we don't know that logically speaking. But logically speaking, we still don't know there's no HUD. He's never said that. He's said things that make us fill in the blanks that all but rules out the HUD... but it hasn't been confirmed. He's not once said, "No, there is no HUD" (that I'm aware of). Silly, right? If there would be a HEP filter then that would be listed. Prior to the update where the features list was blank for the 3, I figured they just weren't revealing. But now that that list is populated... let's be real, there's no HEPA.

 

[bcsteeve]

I want to follow up to be a little more clear on something.

I listed my disappointments, and I think that skews to readers what I really feel about the car. I'm picking out the things I'm not happy with. But I realize (and thought I said) that was my own inflated propped up imaginary view of what the car was. That doesn't take away from what it IS, which is revolutionary!

I'm still fairly sure I'll be getting one, but it isn't the slam dunk I previously thought. My next car is certainly an EV and *probably* a Tesla. All that's changed with my "disappointments" is just that.. it went from "yes" to "probably". I doubt I'll get a Bolt (for one, it isn't really available here) because I don't want to support a company that makes an EV just to justify selling monstrosities. But the new Leaf is probably going to be a compelling option. With Tesla's pricing structure of the S, however, the 3 may very well turn out to be vastly over priced in Canada. Nissan and GM price their models competitively for the market the car is sold in. Telsa simply makes up an exchange rate and ports over the US price to whatever country it is being sold in. That makes the price directly sensitive to currency fluctuations. For example, right now the Model 3 would likely be about $9k more than the Bolt in Canada. In the US, the 3 is slightly cheaper than the Bolt. So ultimately my decision is going to come down to what I get for the money spent, compared to other EVs.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Customers care about the tax credit. The manufacturer only cares insofar as it bumps sales. Tesla couldn't give a crap, because they'll sell out whether or not you get your credit. If you don't buy it, someone else will. I just can't see them making adjustments on delivery schedules to maximize credits for which they see zero benefit. He already has shown he thinks it necessary to "anti sell" because he figures everyone can "just by an S". As a billionaire, naturally he's a little out of touch

Well you don't know Elon very well, he was put on record that Tesla will do what they can to maximize the credit.
Musk Hints Tesla Could Try To Maximize Tax Credit-Eligible Model 3 Deliveries After Credit Expires - HybridCars.com

 

[bcsteeve]

Well you don't know Elon very well, he was put on record that Tesla will do what they can to maximize the credit.
Musk Hints Tesla Could Try To Maximize Tax Credit-Eligible Model 3 Deliveries After Credit Expires - HybridCars.com

And you're besties with him?

First off, he says a LOT of things that don't turn out to be true. The man has very little filter. He says even more that does turn out to be true, so you takes the goods with the bads Second, "hints" and "could" is hardly "put on record". Look at the link you provided and read it. The actual quotes say nothing of the sort.

We always try to maximize customer happiness even if that means a revenue shortfall in a quarter

"try to maximize Customer happiness" is not "put me on record, we'll do whatever we can - even manipulate international deliveries costing us millions - to make sure you get your credit"

Our production ramp plan should enable large numbers of [new customers] to receive the credit

12. 12 is a "large number" compared to 1. Again, it says practically nothing. Certainly nothing he can be taken to task over if you don't get your credit.

 

[Az_Rael]

Umm... we did? You find me THAT quote. What we SAW was a glass roof on every unit, right? And I think you missed my point. It *isn't* going to be an option. It is going to be *called* an option. You wait and see. You won't be able to order one without a glass roof. Not if you want it before 2019. They've given themselves a way to price the car however they need to and still be able to say to the media that it is a $35k car.

Yes, I'm predicting. Of course I can be wrong. I won't be though

I believe the glass roof option info was in the Motortrend reveal test drive. The driver talks about 3 options: a solid roof, a glass roof, and a sunroof.

 

[3Victoria]

I want to follow up to be a little more clear on something.

I listed my disappointments, and I think that skews to readers what I really feel about the car. I'm picking out the things I'm not happy with. But I realize (and thought I said) that was my own inflated propped up imaginary view of what the car was. That doesn't take away from what it IS, which is revolutionary!

I'm still fairly sure I'll be getting one, but it isn't the slam dunk I previously thought. My next car is certainly an EV and *probably* a Tesla. All that's changed with my "disappointments" is just that.. it went from "yes" to "probably". I doubt I'll get a Bolt (for one, it isn't really available here) because I don't want to support a company that makes an EV just to justify selling monstrosities. But the new Leaf is probably going to be a compelling option. With Tesla's pricing structure of the S, however, the 3 may very well turn out to be vastly over priced in Canada. Nissan and GM price their models competitively for the market the car is sold in. Telsa simply makes up an exchange rate and ports over the US price to whatever country it is being sold in. That makes the price directly sensitive to currency fluctuations. For example, right now the Model 3 would likely be about $9k more than the Bolt in Canada. In the US, the 3 is slightly cheaper than the Bolt. So ultimately my decision is going to come down to what I get for the money spent, compared to other EVs.

Thanks for you comments ... another BC boy. I mostly agree with you. I wanted a HUD, too. The anti-selling is disappointing ... but I am trying not to react until I see the final car.

We keep forgetting the positives, before the first reveal: supercharging-capable (many thought the hardware for that would be an optional at best); autopilot hardware (lots thought that would not be on the base car); the all-glass roof (not contemplated at all); the sexy appearance (not a given); range (>215 mi was well received); 5-star safety; acceleration 0-60 < 6s (well received, now it is 5.6s in the base car!).

So, I think that we have forgotten the positives, and feel badly about our (inflated) expectations not being fulfilled. I think we will be pleased when we get a test-drive, but ultimately most of us need to spend our money frugally, and ensure value for money spent.

I am still optimistic that there will be one, and perhaps two, Model 3s in my life within the next year.

 

[stopcrazypp]

And you're besties with him?

First off, he says a LOT of things that don't turn out to be true. The man has very little filter. He says even more that does turn out to be true, so you takes the goods with the bads Second, "hints" and "could" is hardly "put on record". Look at the link you provided and read it. The actual quotes say nothing of the sort.



"try to maximize Customer happiness" is not "put me on record, we'll do whatever we can - even manipulate international deliveries costing us millions - to make sure you get your credit"

12. 12 is a "large number" compared to 1. Again, it says practically nothing. Certainly nothing he can be taken to task over if you don't get your credit.

That's as much as he can say without getting into trouble (lawmakers already hate his guts on the tax credit issue, it's easy to make the impression worse and push them toward cancelling the credit early as some have suggested). He's obviously not going to outright say "I will manipulate the numbers to get the most credit", but it's easy to connect the dots. But this is contrary to your suggestion that Tesla won't do such a thing.

First of all, make sure you understand how the phase out words. It continues for the given quarter and the next quarter. Hitting 200k at the beginning of a quarter and end of a quarter can make a huge difference (as well as which quarter to do it depending on ramp up). However, for Tesla, they can easily divert to other countries to change this number without affecting production.
Keep in mind even if you assume they are "greedy" as you seem to be assuming, maximizing the credit benefits the Model S/X too.
Tax Credit Clarification

 

[slipnslider]

I think the reality is... this car just isn't as cool as it was built up to be. The HUD? Purely people's imaginations based on the lack of a traditional instrument cluster.

Exactly. The fact that so many people just ASSUMED there would be a HUD simply shows how many people thought that a single ipad screen for everything was such a bad idea that tesla MUST have something better in mind. Turns out they were wrong.

 

[3Victoria]

Turns out they were wrong.

Turns out they were (most probably) wrong. Unless you have some inside knowledge?

 

[bcsteeve]

Keep in mind even if you assume they are "greedy" as you seem to be assuming, maximizing the credit benefits the Model S/X too.

Now hang on. I'm not "assuming" that at all... as a publicly traded company, they are required by law to be greedy. They are REQUIRED to maximize return for their shareholders. That's not saying they're bad... that's America's corporate reality.

But I'm not sure how you think the concept of greed comes into my argument at all. Do you think (or do you think I think) that by not giving a credit they somehow make more money? The credit is between the consumer and the government. It makes no impact at all on the manufacturer, except insofar as it encourages sales. News flash: The 3 is sold out for a very long time. The credit won't make one lick of a difference to them. You mention the impact on S/X and you may have a point there... it MAY be in their best financial interest to not sell the 3 at all in the US until the lesser demand, higher profit S/X utilize the full credit. Because perhaps S/X buyers are influenced by the credit more than the 3 buyers are (I don't know).

But really, my point is that it makes no difference to Tesla. They're going to sell their cars whether or not individuals get a credit.

 

[arjay]

"Spaceship"? Elon's view... and what we see is what he feels looks like a spaceship.

With hindsight, I'm now pretty sure what Elon meant about "spaceship" is the large amount glass and the low dash sill giving the feeling of flying through space with a 360-ish field of view.