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Discussion in 'Autopilot & Autonomous/FSD' started by lunitiks, Apr 15, 2019.
Elon Musk retweeted:
Is she wondering "how"?
Me too! Can't find their research paper
There’s a concept in German called große Lüge, basically big lie, infamously popularized by the Third Reich that a public lie has to be so huge that nobody will believe it could be a lie. I think there may be some truth to this even today when assessing many bold claims especially in the startup sphere.
The nature of the financial markets dictates that you have to describe a goal so bold that indeed too often it is impossible to reach but because it is so bold people will start thinking there must be some truth to it. You could start with a complete lie, 0% truth, and while people might not believe you 100%, they will still believe you 50% which is still 50% more than the truth... then of course usually starts the race to make that lie happen and sometimes that does succeed but it was still a lie in the first place.
I have a really hard time deciding how much, if any, of this thinking applies to Tesla’s ”Level 5 capable hardware”. If it was all a complete hoax in 2016, no matter what they may have implemented since then, then we certainly would have been victims of a big lie.
Sounds a bit like the philosophy of "fake it until you make it".
I embarrassingly didn't know about this "method" and hadn't realized that this was somewhat common in Silicon Valley until I'd read about as it related to Theranos and the MASSIVE scam that they were. The faked everything the whole time and fooled lots of venture capitalists, board members, Walgreens, etc.
Indeed. Theranos crossed my mind too.
And this is the problem with listening to Musk today. How much of him is still in that cash raising/demand increasing mode? And if so is he susceptible to exaggerating things to paint a big picture that helps him raise cash and increase demand?
Is he trying to fake it until he makes it?
Bonus points for the subtle invocation of Godwin's Law.
"On April 22, Investor Autonomy Day, Tesla will free investors from the tyranny of having to drive their own car"
Dang! Musk sure got some big cojones! He's going all in on FSD! I wouldn't want to play Musk in a poker game.
Given that his modus operandi seems to be to bluff big with outs, you should want to play him, but you'll need a sizeable bankroll do deal with the odds.
Remember when Tesla was "About to end range anxiety", people got excited, and then it turned out their software was terrible beyond the case where you selected the next Supercharger?
I'm not getting excited about this upcoming event/attempted cash grab at all.
He's not going all-in, he's just trying to get cash and FSD is all or almost all margin.
Back on topic of the thread: yes, taxis earn money.
That’s one of those things someone can say, and I’m totally blown away and can’t even think of a gif to reply with. Congrats, mate, you got me hard and well there.
Elon is going to straight up rob the investors as they arrive at the event. Can’t drive your car if I just stole it!
I guess that is one way to interpret "will free investors of the tyranny of having to drive their own cars." LOL.
Interestingly though, it is often thought that the big lie is something Hitler (or Goebbels) made themselves, but in fact it originates in Hitler’s claim of what others did. I am not sure it is exactly Godwin’s Law, but then not even Godwin has resisted the temptation to fall for it with Trump so all moot nowadays I guess.
Can't wait for that Nigerian Prince to email me about an exciting autonomous taxi investment opportunity.
$10,000/year from operating a taxi seems like a modest estimate. But I think autonomous taxis are much further off than Elon implies.
Same as things like how AI will take over humanity I can't predict when or if this will happen. At the same time I will not be appear so ignorant to discount this as an impossibility. Travis Kalanick when he was still the CEO of Uber said if his company is not among the first to have self driving cars the business will not exist. There are people who think ahead of us. It's best just to keep curiosity up and ignorance down if you don't have an idea about it.
You're probably right but this sure will happen one day. Using Elon's example of automatic elevator I'm sure a century ago no one would have believed an elevator could run without an operator.
There is a vast difference between thinking it can’t be done / won’t happen... and thinking it won’t happen as Elon has said. The latter thought does in no way imply the former. It just means we don’t think it will happen as Elon says.
Personally I believe Waymo is likely to crack self-driving first, possibly followed by MobilEye’s taxi fleet — third I’d wager on some of the startups (Cruise included), not including Tesla.
Tesla may well be the first with an urban Level 2 ADAS though and it may be fun to drive with it.
Only thing I agree with in your entire post is the word "Personally".