Model S range and interior update imminent?

[mtndrew1]

+1. they are supply constrained on the S/X batteries --limited to about 100k of them I think. They would prefer to sell the P versions, but other than that as long as they are selling 100k annual of the S/X with the current interior they have no need to generate more demand with any costly redesign and retooling.

But demand might fall when either the tax credits get cut, or the Model 3 starts taking more sales or whatever. Then they should do an update to generate more demand to go back on track for 100k per year.

The I-Pace might give Tesla a nice nudge in the interior department. It looks to be lovingly crafted inside from high quality materials and an I-Pace with a tax credit up against an X75D without one might get Tesla off their asses to compete in that regard. Right now they have zero competition.

 

[electracity]

I suspect that the updated S and X will launch immediately after the tax credit starts expiring. This will prevent those who got the existing interior from being too peeved about missing the boat and those who missed the full tax credit feeling like they got a benefit

I think this is the ideal strategy. But from years of wrongly predicting a model S major interior refresh I've learned that Tesla often doesn't have the capacity to execute the ideal strategy.

As long as Tesla has the only real charging network high end competitors sales seem capped at lower numbers. I assume almost everyone buying an S/X is purchasing their primary car. I assume most people interested in the IPace will realize how limited it is for travel.

I had someone try to convince me that charging at the newly announced Walmart charging station would be good enough for IPace buyers. I laughed. An IPace or Taycan owner traveling by hopping from Walmart to Walmart hoping the charger is not blocked and functioning.

 

[PhilDavid]

I think this is the ideal strategy. But from years of wrongly predicting a model S major interior refresh I've learned that Tesla often doesn't have the capacity to execute the ideal strategy.

As long as Tesla has the only real charging network high end competitors sales seem capped at lower numbers. I assume almost everyone buying an S/X is purchasing their primary car. I assume most people interested in the IPace will realize how limited it is for travel.

I had someone try to convince me that charging at the newly announced Walmart charging station would be good enough for IPace buyers. I laughed. An IPace or Taycan owner traveling by hopping from Walmart to Walmart hoping the charger is not blocked and functioning.

Would this not work with the i-Pace?

Welcome to Electrify America | Commitment

Too bad they did not make a deal to use the Tesla Supercharger Network.

 

[mtndrew1]

Would this not work with the i-Pace?

Welcome to Electrify America | Commitment

Too bad they did not make a deal to use the Tesla Supercharger Network.

I’ve used EVgo, Blink, and ChargePoint networks to do moderate distance (500 mile) driving in a 100-mile compliance car and it’s much more difficult and expensive than a 2,300 mile trip in a Model 3. The patchwork solution of a couple CCS or CHAdeMO nozzles in a big-box store parking lot with a key ring full of account cards working with a 75% success rate is awful in practice.

It’s difficult to overstate how valuable and seamless Tesla’s solution is here. That said, I could see Audi and Jaguar making a legitimate dent in the “stays near home soccer team car” market for the well-heeled. At some point Tesla will need to compete a little harder on the high end cars.

 

[electracity]

Would this not work with the i-Pace?

Welcome to Electrify America | Commitment

Too bad they did not make a deal to use the Tesla Supercharger Network.

Sure, but the stations won't be conveniently spread out for long distance travel for a number of years. Plus a lot of single charger locations can't be counted on for reliable availability.

 

[EV-lutioin]

I’ve used EVgo, Blink, and ChargePoint networks to do moderate distance (500 mile) driving in a 100-mile compliance car and it’s much more difficult and expensive than a 2,300 mile trip in a Model 3. The patchwork solution of a couple CCS or CHAdeMO nozzles in a big-box store parking lot with a key ring full of account cards working with a 75% success rate is awful in practice.

It’s difficult to overstate how valuable and seamless Tesla’s solution is here. That said, I could see Audi and Jaguar making a legitimate dent in the “stays near home soccer team car” market for the well-heeled. At some point Tesla will need to compete a little harder on the high end cars.

I agree, the other charge stations are bunk, you never know if they are going to be occupied or operative. Too stressful for me. Tesla is way ahead on this.

 

[Mark_T]

That said, I could see Audi and Jaguar making a legitimate dent in the “stays near home soccer team car” market for the well-heeled. At some point Tesla will need to compete a little harder on the high end cars.

... and that is the key point for the European 'home' market for the iPace. The number of drivers actually needing the Supercharger network is much lower and the speed with which viable alternatives are being rolled out around Europe is much higher than in the USA it seems.

Tesla have little to fear from Jaguar in the USA, but the iPace stands a good chance of making more than a small dent in the European Model S/X sales as long as they can get production flowing before the Model 3 makes a real appearance.

 

[wdolson]

I suspect that the updated S and X will launch immediately after the tax credit starts expiring. This will prevent those who got the existing interior from being too peeved about missing the boat and those who missed the full tax credit feeling like they got a benefit

I pretty much agree. Tesla ran into problems when they tried to discontinue free supercharging on the S and X. They brought it back because sales tanked without some kind of trade-off for losing free supercharging. Two things propping up S and X sales now are free supercharging and in the US the tax incentive.

I think when the incentive starts to go away (halved), they will come out with a refresh that either has a lot of upgrades for the same price, or will have a lower starting price. Right now the price difference between the S and 3 is too large for what you get with the more expensive car and the 3 is nicer in some ways. If they standardize some parts across all three car lines, they can probably save a fair bit and they could reduce the price of the S without cutting too deeply into their profit margin.

+1. they are supply constrained on the S/X batteries --limited to about 100k of them I think. They would prefer to sell the P versions, but other than that as long as they are selling 100k annual of the S/X with the current interior they have no need to generate more demand with any costly redesign and retooling.

But demand might fall when either the tax credits get cut, or the Model 3 starts taking more sales or whatever. Then they should do an update to generate more demand to go back on track for 100k per year.

I expect the refresh when it comes will also include a switch over to 2170 cells. Jason Hughs who has done a lot of Tesla hacking said the S/X pack has enough vertical room to accommodate the bigger cells. The new pack size would be around 110-120KWh and they would probably be flirting with 400 mile range on the S. they need the excess capacity at the GigaFactory to start supplying S/X with the new packs and I expect they will phase them in like they did with the 100 pack, making it available on the P cars first.

... and that is the key point for the European 'home' market for the iPace. The number of drivers actually needing the Supercharger network is much lower and the speed with which viable alternatives are being rolled out around Europe is much higher than in the USA it seems.

Tesla have little to fear from Jaguar in the USA, but the iPace stands a good chance of making more than a small dent in the European Model S/X sales as long as they can get production flowing before the Model 3 makes a real appearance.

The iPace's smaller size is a plus for the European market. Though I don't know what kind of volumes Jaguar might be capable of. They could run into the same problem Hyundai did with the Ioniq, unable to meet demand because they ran out of batteries. Nobody is really going to compete with Tesla until they can build at least 100K EVs a year, and won't seriously compete until they can build 500K EVs a year. Nissan is the only company other than Tesla making an EV at more than 50K volume a year and that is a 150 mile car.

 

[MarkS22]

Yup. Also HUD for the model 3.

The cold reality is the the S/X interior doesn't require a major update until these cars need a strong demand stimulus. Even then the only major change may be the dash.

Well, they lost at least three Model S purchases to a Performance Model 3 because of no refresh, myself included. I was holding out for a refreshed S to replace my P85D, but pulled the trigger on the Model 3. Maybe they don't care, but I highly doubt I'm the only one.

 

[MP3Mike]

Well, they lost at least three Model S purchases to a Performance Model 3 because of no refresh, myself included. I was holding out for a refreshed S to replace my P85D, but pulled the trigger on the Model 3. Maybe they don't care, but I highly doubt I'm the only one.

I really don't think they care. They are already making the Model 3 at ~5 times the pace of the Model S. So even if the GM is lower they will make more profit overall.

On a $80k Model 3 P they might only make 17%, or $13.6k. (I think the GM will be higher than this.)
While on a $143k Model S P they might make 25%, or $35.75k.

So in a week they could make a profit of $68M on Model 3s, or $36M on Model Ss. (assuming that there was demand for 100% P variants of both.)

And they are planning on doubling their Model 3 production capability from here.

 

[MarkS22]

I really don't think they care. They are already making the Model 3 at ~5 times the pace of the Model S. So even if the GM is lower they will make more profit overall.

On a $80k Model 3 P they might only make 17%, or $13.6k. (I think the GM will be higher than this.)
While on a $143k Model S P they might make 25%, or $35.75k.

So in a week they could make a profit of $68M on Model 3s, or $36M on Model Ss. (assuming that there was demand for 100% P variants of both.)

And they are planning on doubling their Model 3 production capability from here.

Chances of a new Model S eventually being a Model 3 variant?

 

[wdolson]

I really don't think they care. They are already making the Model 3 at ~5 times the pace of the Model S. So even if the GM is lower they will make more profit overall.

On a $80k Model 3 P they might only make 17%, or $13.6k. (I think the GM will be higher than this.)
While on a $143k Model S P they might make 25%, or $35.75k.

So in a week they could make a profit of $68M on Model 3s, or $36M on Model Ss. (assuming that there was demand for 100% P variants of both.)

And they are planning on doubling their Model 3 production capability from here.

Elon has said in the future the Model S and X will be the platforms for testing new technology. Though with the new Roadster coming, they could probably let the Model S go, then the X when the Y comes out and use the Roadster as the new tech car.

I don't think they will be discontinuing the S anytime soon, and there is nothing comparable to the X yet.

 

[Tiger]

Well, they lost at least three Model S purchases to a Performance Model 3 because of no refresh, myself included. I was holding out for a refreshed S to replace my P85D, but pulled the trigger on the Model 3. Maybe they don't care, but I highly doubt I'm the only one.

You are mistaken. They'll make the next P130D so good that you'll want to swap your PM3 to P130D and thus instead of selling you one new car, they sell you two

 

[daktari]

They probably should make a Model Y first of all. Other auto makers are using modular platforms to spit out different models with similar underpinnings.
So after the Y they should design an all new S based on a stretched Model 3 platform with space for a bigger battery, bigger motors and with a more premium interior and features than the 3. But I guess Pickup before that...

 

[Mark_T]

You are mistaken. They'll make the next P130D so good that you'll want to swap your PM3 to P130D and thus instead of selling you one new car, they sell you two

Unless they can produce a 130 for the price of the current 100 I suspect that the market for such a large pack is just too small to make sense at current prices...

 

[wdolson]

They probably should make a Model Y first of all. Other auto makers are using modular platforms to spit out different models with similar underpinnings.
So after the Y they should design an all new S based on a stretched Model 3 platform with space for a bigger battery, bigger motors and with a more premium interior and features than the 3. But I guess Pickup before that...

The first Model S refresh came out about the time the production hell from the Model X began to settle out and most of the refresh was shared technology and parts with the Model X. I expect the Model S/X refresh to be something similar to that with lessons learned and tech that can be ported from the 3 incorporated into the S/X line. That would include incorporating most of the Model 3's electronics into the larger cars and then adding the larger car's electronics on top of that. Much of the Model 3's drive train could be ported too. The P cars might keep the same motors as the current cars, but the permanent magnet motors in the 3 are more efficient than the small motors in the S/X and could be incorporated. Though a refreshed Performance car might have 3 Model 3 motors like the Roadster 2. It would also enable Tesla to test a lot of the tech going into the Roadster in the real world.

Unless they can produce a 130 for the price of the current 100 I suspect that the market for such a large pack is just too small to make sense at current prices...

Switching to 2170s, the increase in battery volume would yield somewhere around 115 KWH, maybe as much as 120 KWH. 130 would be a stretch, though there are rumors of a new battery chemistry coming for the Roadster and Semi. If so, 130 might not be out of the question.

Elon has said the S/X will get almost all new tech first. Tesla wants to test new tech in the real world on a platform that is proven, but built in somewhat low volume. There are several things coming down the pike that could be showing up in these cars in the coming years. New battery chemistry is probably the most obvious. There have been many rumors of a HUD, which may happen.

Another tech a lot of luxury cars have now is images of their cars on the screen with the surrounding made up of a composite of images from the cameras. Tesla has never had any tech like that, but they will probably need to introduce something in the next couple of years to keep up. The AP2 hardware probably has enough cameras to do it, but may not have enough computing power. AP1 probably won't see anything like that.

The Performance cars might get a SpaceX package. They could probably fit the compressors and tanks where the jump seat goes in the S (under the floor).

Knowing Tesla, they will probably come up with something we haven't thought of.

 

[meomyo]

The I-Pace might give Tesla a nice nudge in the interior department. It looks to be lovingly crafted inside from high quality materials and an I-Pace with a tax credit up against an X75D without one might get Tesla off their asses to compete in that regard. Right now they have zero competition.

hope so but the grill on the ipace is fugly

 

[The Duke]

I agree, the other charge stations are bunk

Worse than bunk. I went to Stanford Shopping Center and charged, not because I needed it, because I wanted the experience. What a mess. 12 chargers, 10 empty which was good because they are left and right sided, many cords too short to go across the car. I found a left side charger and backed in. Opened the port and put on the adapter, opened the port again because it timed out. Plugged in the charger and followed the directions on the screen. Called the toll free number, gave them my credit card info. Waited two minutes and things leveled out almost exactly like my home charger. Off to shopping, on returning charging was still going but I stopped it. I gained about 40 miles (starting at 50% charge). Pretty much like a destination/home charger, only less convenient. $2.00 per hour.

 

[EV-lutioin]

Worse than bunk. I went to Stanford Shopping Center and charged, not because I needed it, because I wanted the experience. What a mess. 12 chargers, 10 empty which was good because they are left and right sided, many cords too short to go across the car. I found a left side charger and backed in. Opened the port and put on the adapter, opened the port again because it timed out. Plugged in the charger and followed the directions on the screen. Called the toll free number, gave them my credit card info. Waited two minutes and things leveled out almost exactly like my home charger. Off to shopping, on returning charging was still going but I stopped it. I gained about 40 miles (starting at 50% charge). Pretty much like a destination/home charger, only less convenient. $2.00 per hour.

Yeah, I went to a ChargePoint charger and it kept turning off. I would start the charge, then open my door sit in my car and the charge would stop. I called the toll free number and she said that every time the car powers up the charger will stop. I explained to her that I own a Tesla and the the car powers up when I open the door or even if I'm in range of the car with my fob. She said I would not be able to sit in my car when it charges because it will cancel the charge. So, I opened the charge port, handed my wife the fob and told her to walk 100 feet away, plugged in the charger and stayed away from the car as it slooooowly charged. What a pain. If I had to go through that each time I charged, I would probably never own an EV. Thank you Tesla for making EV ownership so easy!!!

 

[MarkS22]

You are mistaken. They'll make the next P130D so good that you'll want to swap your PM3 to P130D and thus instead of selling you one new car, they sell you two

I have no problem with this. Give me a refreshed P?D that’s like a Model S spliced with a 2020 Roadster and throw in some new tech and I’m there. In the meantime, the Model 3 is fantastic.