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Model S Reservation Tally

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I agree

I worry about this because this is the future of our automotive industry. Its important to everyone of us that we stop giving money to our shady saudi arabian friends for oil, and instead build our economy. Its important because tesla is the first car company to provide a compelling product that says that the engineering capital of the world is still the United States. This is the first "big deal" company since google, but Tesla builds an actual physical product. 3000 Manufacturing and automotive jobs that are the heart of a strong middle class. Yeah, we're gonna keep breathlessly watching the reservation numbers.

J, I agree. Its called selective capitalism. We need to build the future of companies like Tesla. Eventually prices will drop for the masses and the technology will improve but it has to start somewhere. No oil changes, no transmission, no shipping of oil using oil across oceans. The oil industry is all for crappy technology.

There is no reason why we should drive gas powered vehicles.
 
#18705

85kWh, 19, pano, tech, air, sound, grey/black/obeche gloss

Ordered 1/27/13
Signed pre-MVPA - 2/14
March/April delivery (no set date yet)

They are moving much faster now!

welcome on TMC ;-)

Congratulations

They indeed move faster, but do not forget that TESLA not yet produces the multicolor red, standard suspension and 40kw battery!
So they complete orders till they have enough people who don't order these options!
 
Another Reservation

#19325. Finalized on 2/18. Paperwork signed 2/19. So far all I know is that it will be delivered March-April.

Specs:

  • Exterior
    • Paint: Grey Metallic
    • Roof: Panoramic
    • Wheels: 19"
  • Interior
    • Material: Grey Leather
    • Decor: Lacewood
  • Options
    • Tech Package
    • Active Air Suspension
  • Power:
    • Battery: 60 kWh
    • Twin Chargers w/ High Power Wall Connector
    • Supercharging
 
#19325. Finalized on 2/18. Paperwork signed 2/19. So far all I know is that it will be delivered March-April.

Specs:

  • Exterior
    • Paint: Grey Metallic
    • Roof: Panoramic
    • Wheels: 19"
  • Interior
    • Material: Grey Leather
    • Decor: Lacewood
  • Options
    • Tech Package
    • Active Air Suspension
  • Power:
    • Battery: 60 kWh
    • Twin Chargers w/ High Power Wall Connector
    • Supercharging

This is our favorite type of first post. Congrats.
 
#19325. Finalized on 2/18. Paperwork signed 2/19. So far all I know is that it will be delivered March-April.

Specs:

  • Exterior
    • Paint: Grey Metallic
    • Roof: Panoramic
    • Wheels: 19"
  • Interior
    • Material: Grey Leather
    • Decor: Lacewood
  • Options
    • Tech Package
    • Active Air Suspension
  • Power:
    • Battery: 60 kWh
    • Twin Chargers w/ High Power Wall Connector
    • Supercharging

jpasqua, thanks for your post! We needed this data point!! I have one critical point that I think needs to be clarified. Are you saying that your reservation #19325 was placed on 2/18 or before 2/18? I think you haven't provided the date yet when you placed this reservation but you finalized your MVPA on 2/18. I'm guessing you placed your reservation BEFORE 2/18. It's important we know that exact date.


Thanks for confirming this reservation date! It's how we can all judge the daily average of reservations.
 
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jpasqua, thanks for your post! We needed this data point!! I have one critical point that I think needs to be clarified. Are you saying that your reservation #19325 was placed on 2/18 or before 2/18? I think you haven't provided the date yet when you placed this reservation but you finalized your MVPA on 2/18. I'm guessing you placed your reservation BEFORE 2/18. It's important we know that exact date.


Thanks for confirming this reservation date! It's how we can all judge the daily average of reservations.

Here's the more detailed timeline:
2/17: Made my reservation
2/18: Finalized the order
2/19: Signed (DocuSigned) the paperwork
2/20: I received confirmation from Tesla that my order was complete
 
Here's the more detailed timeline:
2/17: Made my reservation
2/18: Finalized the order
2/19: Signed (DocuSigned) the paperwork
2/20: I received confirmation from Tesla that my order was complete

Thanks for clarifying!

Based on jpasqua's reservation data point above, the U.S. Reservation Rate between Feb 8th and Feb 17th is 50 reservations/day. The Feb 8th reservation# was 18,874. That's 451 new reservations over 9 days.

The Takeaway: Reservation rates are increasing as expected (post new year price increase hangover)
 
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Thanks for clarifying!

Based on jpasqua's reservation data point above, the U.S. Reservation Rate between Feb 8th and Feb 17th is 50 reservations/day. The Feb 8th reservation# was 18,874. That's 451 new reservations over 9 days.

The Takeaway: Reservation rates are increasing as expected (post new year price increase hangover)

More like 30 per day in the US. The reservation dates being reported were a little screwy around the beginning of February, but I see this post in the reservation thread on the official forums.

schoendp | FEBRUARY 8, 2013As posted on the configuration thread:
[email protected] | FEBRUARY 8, 2013
Reservation #18,974 placed on Feb 5th.
Received email to configure Feb 8th.


Model S Reservation Tally | Forums | Tesla Motors

Which is in line with rate of the last reservation 19,178 and the current high number of 19,325 as can be seen here.

Welcome to Google Docs
 
That is a really steep drop off, back to the reservation rates about 3-4 months ago. 30/day isn't bad, but it's only 1/2 what the run rate needs to be to support 20k/year. Q1 is often a slow sales period though. I've also wondered in the past if Tesla is going to have a tough patch between the initial backlog getting on the street to when those cars generate enough word of mouth to spawn new buyers.
 
ScreenHunter_41 Feb. 20 10.57.jpg


I made a quick chart of sequence number by reservation date. I interpret this graph to mean Tesla was successful with their price increase strategy. In November the curve looked pretty similar to what it does in 2013, with a huge spike in December of people trying to get in before the hike. So they got a bunch of people off the fence while maintaining a strong baseline reservation rate. Gas price increases and more cars on the road should drive future reservations rates higher.
 
View attachment 16883

I made a quick chart of sequence number by reservation date. I interpret this graph to mean Tesla was successful with their price increase strategy. In November the curve looked pretty similar to what it does in 2013, with a huge spike in December of people trying to get in before the hike. So they got a bunch of people off the fence while maintaining a strong baseline reservation rate. Gas price increases and more cars on the road should drive future reservations rates higher.

I agree that the price increase seems to have been successful. My thesis has always been that they put through that increase primarily to depress demand to a rate that they could manage. It's early, but this graphic seems to indicate that the exponential rise in reservation rates has been stopped. Of course, this could just been a January hangover from holiday spending and the rate might resume it's previous course shortly.
 
That is a really steep drop off, back to the reservation rates about 3-4 months ago. 30/day isn't bad, but it's only 1/2 what the run rate needs to be to support 20k/year. Q1 is often a slow sales period though. I've also wondered in the past if Tesla is going to have a tough patch between the initial backlog getting on the street to when those cars generate enough word of mouth to spawn new buyers.

Don't forget Europe, which is around 18 per day. So the reservation rate is probably around 80-85% of 400 per week goal. I'd say that's fine for the beginning of the year when auto sales tend to lag.