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Model S Reservation Tally
- Thread starter Joel
- Start date
Already five hundred something?! That's a lot! There are only around 400 EV in total now in HK
So 22 / day pace since 05/22. While a significant tick up in demand from the consistent 12 / day, it's still short of the "currently 200 orders per week" that Elon told Goldman Sachs and published in their analyst's note.
Was there some kind of advertising in the Netherlands or large store opening that might have caused this pop?
I do not know about delivery timing, but thanks for posting!
In view of the incentives by the Dutch Governement (MIA etc.) ; there is a pretty good chance you will get the car this year. To be sure : ask Tesla in Eindhoven.
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Tesla has been in the newspapers in Holland.
Tesla has been in the newspapers in Holland.[/QUOTE]
Would you mind clarifying? What newspapers? I don't speak/read Dutch, but I would try to read the articles in Google translate if I can find them.... Favorable reviews? Highlighting incentives? Very curious about the European market. Looking at the European data, seems like historically it was mostly reservations from Norway with a recent increase in Netherlands activity.
Thanks in advance for any help!
Would you mind clarifying? What newspapers? I don't speak/read Dutch, but I would try to read the articles in Google translate if I can find them.... Favorable reviews? Highlighting incentives? Very curious about the European market. Looking at the European data, seems like historically it was mostly reservations from Norway with a recent increase in Netherlands activity.
Thanks in advance for any help!
So if Elon is right and orders are somewhere around 200 a week, has the factory scaled back production from the 400 a week that they were pushing for in January and February?
Philip Macafee
Philip Macafee
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He was referring to European orders only.
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I recently posted the following on this subject in the subforum on Tesla marketing:
"Tesla placed this ad (in a business newspaper with nation-wide circulation) because of the unique fiscal situation in The Netherlands. Half of the new cars sold in The Netherlands are company cars, for which the driver pays a yearly tax when driven privately. You have to add a percentage of the MRSP of the car to your income, on which you pay taxes. The percentage you have to add ranges from 25% of the MRSP for a gas guzzler to 14% pf the MRSP for a Prius-like car. For EV's it's 0%!!
However, in 2014 this will become 7%. Still a bargain, but 0% is better ofcourse. The ad states that if you place your order before the end of April they will guarantee delivery of your car in 2013 and you will profit from 0% taxation for five years. You will save about $20,000 in tax over that period. So definitely an appealing proposal. The ad likely generated a lot of interest and hopefully a lot of orders."
End of April later became End of May. And I've heard rumors that even if you order before the end of June you will still get the car in 2013, but I guess they don't give you a solid guarantee.
OK, got it. 200/week in Europe.
Where will the cars be made, I remember a mention of a factory for the Netherlands, but not sure of the scope or timing of that.
Will the stamping or just assembly be done in Europe if/when that comes online?
BTW, where are we on guessing what the rate of US orders are now?
Philip Macafee
Where will the cars be made, I remember a mention of a factory for the Netherlands, but not sure of the scope or timing of that.
Will the stamping or just assembly be done in Europe if/when that comes online?
BTW, where are we on guessing what the rate of US orders are now?
Philip Macafee
Elon recently stated US orders are under 20k / year, and cautioned about annualizing current rates. April/May being strong car sales months generally, + consumer reports tailwind + financing effect means it might be tough to see what steady-state demand is (This sentence is my commentary).
He said 200 / week order rate in Europe, but the recent data shows it spiked to more like 150 / week. 200 / week is either not referring to reservations ("orders" might technically mean reservation holders sending configuration to factory, which Tesla probably has some degree of control over...), or is extrapolating a couple days to that weekly figure. Looks like an end of May spike driven by newspaper advertising promising 2013 delivery if order by end of May, which would save folks in Netherlands about 20% of the price in taxes over vehicle life.
Maybe someone else can chime in with what the VIN data suggest?
CapitalistOppressor
Active Member
VIN data doesn't suggest anything about future reservations. My preliminary estimate for May is ~1,700-1800 deliveries, with up to 100 of those being loaners. All are North America.
The 200 car/week reservation rate that Elon mentioned has been bugging me. If we are up to 22/day at the moment in Europe, that works out to ~152 cars/week. What occurred to me is that Elon might have misspoke and the 200/week is actually referring to all reservations outside of North America, including Asia. That might actually be credible.
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Looking at how we do the tally, Europe and Asia are grouped together, but maybe Hong Kong/UK/Australia are adding up to the 7 cars/day rate that we need to reconcile Elon's statement.
while I think very highly of elon, I think is a marketeer and prone to exaggeration.
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while I think very highly of elon, I think is a marketeer and prone to exaggeration.
Laumb
smrtass.
Last I saw was 1707 invoices created In Norway.
Else they have stopped putting out P-numbers, so we might need to perform invoice tracking per country.
Else they have stopped putting out P-numbers, so we might need to perform invoice tracking per country.
And the highest invoice number for The Netherlands mentioned on this forum is 715. So that means around 2,500 firm orders for those two (top-selling) European countries combined. About 70% of European orders are from these two countries, so I am extrapolating that somewhere between 3,500 and 4,000 firm orders have now been placed from Europe (from an estimated 5,000 reservations, among which there were some quite old ones).
Laumb
smrtass.
Nice math Fred, I agree. Ill make a Google doc for us to track In when Im back from my holiday In Spain (27th of July) - if someone else doesnt do it first.
I suggest we set up columns for every country + gather the invoice-number specific country code for sorting. This way we cam make a lot of statistics.
I suggest we set up columns for every country + gather the invoice-number specific country code for sorting. This way we cam make a lot of statistics.
Nice math Fred, I agree. Ill make a Google doc for us to track In when Im back from my holiday In Spain (27th of July) - if someone else doesnt do it first.
I suggest we set up columns for every country + gather the invoice-number specific country code for sorting. This way we cam make a lot of statistics.
Good idea. For the information from The Netherlands and Belgium you can use the information from a similar document (Welcome to Google Docs) which has already been created in the Dutch-Belgian subforum.
gelden
Well-Known Member
rickbecker
Member
Just ordered and confirmed!
First post...Excited.
Test Drive / Ordered / Confirmed: 11/4/2013 | RN593314 | Sourcing Parts | Delivery: Late December
S85 | Blue Metallic | Pano | 19" | Grey Nappa Leather | Piano Black | Tech
First post...Excited.
Test Drive / Ordered / Confirmed: 11/4/2013 | RN593314 | Sourcing Parts | Delivery: Late December
S85 | Blue Metallic | Pano | 19" | Grey Nappa Leather | Piano Black | Tech
Welcome rickbecker!!! I am excited too. Just waiting and reading the fora here. Mine is due in within the month so even MORE excited. This is a GREAT place to get your questions answered. I found most of mine were answered just by reading what others have asked and answered, but if you need to know anything, anything at all, just ask. You will get many answers and some of them might even be right!:wink:
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