I hope they follow a decent strategy as Apple did, but I believe they are demonstrating poor geographic coverage. The current situation is not good for anyone who's too far from a service center, as the Rangers mileage charges can get enormous. People in Alaska probably expect that, but people in Youngstown, OH (400 miles from the nearest service center right now) probably don't.
Lacking geographic coverage is bad for Tesla's bottom line, too; suppose there's just one Model S in Pittsburgh, one in Cleveland, one in Cincinnati, one in Columbus, one in Toledo, one in Indianapolis, one in Detroit. Do routine service and you've just spent a day per car (due to driving time alone) and are paying the Rangers overtime. Several cars to service? Rangers need to stay overnight, hotel room. Cars have to be taken to the shop? Minimum three days for one car, with the flatbed truck movements. You start to eat up service people's time really fast, and the cost of flatbed transport must skyrocket. This is all very well if you've got one Tesla out in Alaska, but in a high-population area like the Rust Belt, you will *not* have just one Model S, you'll have dozens at a minimum. It's going to be cheaper to have a service center within a reasonable distance than to rely on New York and Chicago.
And as for Hawaii, well, just don't buy a Tesla if you live in Hawaii, because it will be cheaper to buy a new car every couple of years than to do the yearly service. But Hawaiians don't need range, so perhaps Tesla is simply not trying to compete in Hawaii, and will let Nissan own the market. As a stockholder I would disapprove of that decision; Hawaii is practically the perfect luxury electric car market.
I doubt that 12 more service centers is enough to provide a reasonable coverage, but I particularly doubt it if Tesla keeps opening multiple stores in the same geographic region rather than spreading them out (a *fifth* planned in California, really, and the third in Southern California?). If you look at that Q3 2011 report, their planned stores are an improvement over the present state (2 in the SW, 2 in the SE, Boston, Portland) but STILL don't have good geographic coverage of major US population clusters (the many large cities in the Rust Belt, the entire string of large cities along the Mississippi river, North Carolina, Salt Lake City, and of course Hawaii -- not to mention Montreal). Maybe 10-15 more would cover most of the US and Canada population centers comfortably.
Yeah, I'm harping on this, because I don't think they're deploying service centers nearly fast enough. I hope that by the end of 2013 Tesla has rolled out their coverage for these "gaps", but at the moment they show no signs of doing so. You're in Detroit -- there should be a service center nearer to you than Chicago, and it appears none is planned.
Anyway, I've been terribly off-topic. I'll stop now.
Cancellations and upgrades won't amount to that much... but if Tesla gets production started before July (as many have speculated might happen if everything goes well), then they'll produce more than 5000 in the first year, possibly even 10000. 
