Model S Reservation Tally

[Mycroft]

I just reserved my S...so I am number 9,992. I have no idea when estimated delivery is. Any ideas?

May or June 2013.

 

[sp4rk]

Given that 8485 was made on 23 April ... 9 weeks?

1,500 in 9 weeks or 166 a week?

Wonder how much attrition is in there?

 

[1ton]

May or June 2013.

Ok...sounds about right. I'm so excited. Not sure I can wait close to a year though!

 

[Mycroft]

Numerologists should take note. We should have gone over 10,000 by now.

 

[AnOutsider]

Ok...sounds about right. I'm so excited. Not sure I can wait close to a year though!

Hey, at least it wasn't 3!

 

[WhiteKnight]

What a ridiculous article. They JUST delivered the first cars and are slowly ramping production. What possible useful information would sales data provide right now?

+1

On June 29, 2012 (when the article was written) they had not even delivered a month's worth of Model S yet.

Once they have trimmed their backlog way down and they get their delivery time to a month or less then they will probably start reporting monthly sales figures.

P.S. I do think that John Voelcker has generally been pro-Tesla and he does "write" for Green Car Reports so I don't think he is anti-EV (or anti-Tesla for that matter). In fact he was the one who published all the stuff about Max Drucker and the bricking. I do note that he apparently did not score a test drive.

 

[Larry Chanin]

+1

On June 29, 2012 (when the article was written) they had not even delivered a month's worth of Model S yet.

Once they have trimmed their backlog way down and they get their delivery time to a month or less then they will probably start reporting monthly sales figures.

P.S. I do think that John Voelcker has generally been pro-Tesla and he does "write" for Green Car Reports so I don't think he is anti-EV (or anti-Tesla for that matter). In fact he was the one who published all the stuff about Max Drucker and the bricking. I do note that he apparently did not score a test drive.

I agree. With a production rate of one per day there's not a lot to be gained by publishing monthly sales figures yet.

I also agree that John is not likely anti-Tesla and I usually enjoy reading his articles.

This one had a whiney and scolding tone that drew fire.

Larry

 

[Y33ls]

Upgraded my reservation to Signature, had EU P919 and just now got EU S363. I'm in the Netherlands.

 

[sonywong]

Hi, I am from Hong Kong

1) reservation number: 52 / date received: July 2, 2012
2) region: Hong Kong
3) type: General Production.

 

[Citizen-T]

Hi, I am from Hong Kong

1) reservation number: 52 / date received: July 2, 2012
2) region: Hong Kong
3) type: General Production.

Welcome! Glad to have you on the forums. Thanks for the update.

 

[mitch672]

Region: Boston, MA (US)
Model S #10,010
Date Reserved 7/2/2012
General Production

 

[Discoducky]

Region: Boston, MA (US)
Model S #10,010
Date Reserved 7/2/2012
General Production

547 in 20 days for *only* general production. 27/day, 810/m0nth, 9720/year. Statistically less than optimal sample size. Would be cool if someone could maintain a trend of # of reservations per day. I remember the middle of last year it was about 7 to 9 per day on average. I'd bet there is a steady trend upwards with spikes around events. Lower gas prices could abate the flow, but 20K per year is not far off at 55/day. We are half way there already!

 

[brianman]

Would be cool if someone could maintain a trend of # of reservations per day.

In case it's close to what you want, I dug up my old "Michigan" spreadsheet and updated it for the last update before 10,010.

Edit: As always, 99% credit goes to michiganmodels. Slamming the data into a spreadsheet is child's play compared to the regular maintenance of his official forum posts.

 

[Discoducky]

Awesome! Thanks for the visual! Unless the abandon rate isn't too high, this sample size is quite good, and on it's own, shows quite the interest, without more marketing than just stores and website TM could hit their target of 20K with no other marketing. Talk about a revolution in the auto industry!

 

[brianman]

For the statistics / mathematics inclined, the polynomials that reasonably fit the trend-lines are:

• Total: y = 0.0224 x^2 - 1808.5 x + 4E+07
• General: y = 0.0217 x^2 - 1755 x + 4E+07

A translation into "rate was roughly N per day from _ to _, and M per day from _ to _" is what Disco was asking for, I think.

I'm not sure what units "x" is in. It's probably whatever the date value maps to in Excel, which looks like a number in the 40,000 range. But the delta of "1" does seem to map to 1 day.

 

[Larry Chanin]

Thanks Brian,

Could you please explain why the Signature numbers are so high? Over 2,000.

Are we adding all the Signature reservations globally and also adding in the Special Signature reservations?

Thanks.

Larry

 

[brianman]

Could you please explain why the Signature numbers are so high? Over 2,000.
Are we adding all the Signature reservations globally and also adding in the Special Signature reservations?

I kept it simple: no adjustment, no overlap awareness of SSL/S.

244 SSL United States
1246 S United States
132 S Canada
333 S Europe/Asia
14 S Switzerland
13 S United Kingdom
2 S Hong Hong
9 S Australia

 

[Larry Chanin]

I kept it simple: no adjustment, no overlap awareness of SSL/S.

244 SSL United States
1246 S United States
132 S Canada
333 S Europe/Asia
14 S Switzerland
13 S United Kingdom
2 S Hong Hong
9 S Australia

Thanks, but don't you think its more likely that the Special Signature are already imbedded in the regular Signature count?

We know with virtual certainty that there will be only a total of 1,000 U.S. Signatures so the U.S. portion of this total looks about 49% overstated.

Larry

 

[brianman]

Thanks, but don't you think its more likely that the Special Signature are already imbedded in the regular Signature count?

We know with virtual certainty that there will be only a total of 1,000 U.S. Signatures so the U.S. portion of this total looks about 49% overstated.

I concur with both expectations. Nonetheless, the numbers and charts are all about raw reported numbers.

Trying to find derivative information (like how many holes in the various lists due to cancellations) is a guessing game that I'm not spending my time on.

 

[Larry Chanin]

Awesome! Thanks for the visual! Unless the abandon rate isn't too high, this sample size is quite good, and on it's own, shows quite the interest, without more marketing than just stores and website TM could hit their target of 20K with no other marketing. Talk about a revolution in the auto industry!

I concur with both expectations. Nonetheless, the numbers and charts are all about raw reported numbers.

Trying to find derivative information (like how many holes in the various lists due to cancellations) is a guessing game that I'm not spending my time on.

Hi Brian,

Yes, as it turns out the Signature numbers are a done deal anyway. From here on out its all about the trendline of the General Production reservations.

Returning to Disco's remarks if we focus on the General Production trendline and look back a year, the increase in reservations is a little less than 7,000 reservations per year. That, as you point out, is a global total without any cancellations factored in.

So while the numbers look promising, we're still less than 35% of the target 20,000 a year.

Larry