Model S Reservation Tally

[ggr]

Sig 32 just sent an email to the PNW Tesla list saying that she's going to get her Model S the week of August 25. The email was from Tesla Personal Delivery

I don't think there is a difference between SSL an S. Or that it makes any difference.
Or in other words, there does not exist both SSL32 and a S32.

Well, I'm confused, 'cuz my wife and I are SSL#32, and while I did post somewhere that we'd just got our pre-delivery email, it wasn't on the PNW list (which I'm not on).

 

[brianman]

I haven't read this whole thread, so I'm feeling under-qualified to ask this question, but... why would you expect that? Do you have information that would make you believe they would leave holes, or is it just a suspicion?

I think you're asking one or both of the following questions:

(1) What makes you think that an SSL reservation implies insertion of a hole in the S list?

It's the only system I've come up with that makes any sense. Renumbering the S list (sliding people backwards) every time there's a new SSL reservation would be a maintenance hassle and a PR nightmare. Not leaving a hole means that we should have seen a tally stall around S760 that I don't recall seeing.

(2) What makes you think that a cancelled S leaves a hole in the S list?

Because I know there are cancellations below 500 in the S list, and my S number hasn't moved.

 

[brianman]

Well, I'm confused, 'cuz my wife and I are SSL#32, and while I did post somewhere that we'd just got our pre-delivery email, it wasn't on the PNW list (which I'm not on).

Thanks for speaking up, ggr! I had (apparently mistakenly) assumed that Lyon's post was regarding SSL32. It's great to hear that a non-SSL sig has an August 25 ETA.

 

[ChadS]

Lyon was referring to an SSL vehicle, but he just had a typo on the number - it's SSL 35.

 

[Larry Chanin]

Lyon was referring to an SSL vehicle, but he just had a typo on the number - it's SSL 35.

Thanks Chad. Can you please provide a link to the original posting?

Larry

 

[Arnold Panz]

Seeing S reservation list rising to 1278 suggests that there are 278 holes in the S list (and <= 278 holes in the SSL list).


I don't know where you get the 500 number from. Perhaps you're double-counting holes in the SSL list (which are already accounted for in the S list in my description).

I was assuming that it went sequentially from SSL 1-244, then from S1-1278, so if only 1000 total Sigs are being built, that would mean right around 500 cancellations of Sig reservations (whether they became R, P, X or canceled altogether).

Holes in the regular Sig sequence makes sense, but we have no evidence that these built-in holes existed in the original sequencing of these numbers. There are other possibilities, and I was just throwing one out there, which is that Tesla makes nice additional profit on Signatures, so why not make a little more than a thousand? For each extra Sig, it's anywhere from $5k-$7500 additional pure profit.

 

[JRod0802]

I was assuming that it went sequentially from SSL 1-244, then from S1-1278, so if only 1000 total Sigs are being built, that would mean right around 500 cancellations of Sig reservations (whether they became R, P, X or canceled altogether).

This theory makes the most sense to me. It would be proved if we could find an SSL and an S that each had the same number.

 

[brianman]

@ChadS - Thanks for the update, but bummer. I got a tiny bit excited.
@Larry - My understanding is that it's a private distribution e-mail / newsletter type thing, not something published / linkable.

 

[Larry Chanin]

@Larry - My understanding is that it's a private distribution e-mail / newsletter type thing, not something published / linkable.

Hi Brian,

Lyon stated it was posted in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) forum.

Sig 32 just sent an email to the PNW Tesla list saying that she's going to get her Model S the week of August 25. The email was from Tesla Personal Delivery

So, the first Sig deliveries are planned... if they haven't already happened (pre-32).

Larry

 

[brianman]

I was assuming that it went sequentially from SSL 1-244, then from S1-1278, so if only 1000 total Sigs are being built, that would mean right around 500 cancellations of Sig reservations (whether they became R, P, X or canceled altogether).

Holes in the regular Sig sequence makes sense, but we have no evidence that these built-in holes existed in the original sequencing of these numbers. There are other possibilities, and I was just throwing one out there, which is that Tesla makes nice additional profit on Signatures, so why not make a little more than a thousand? For each extra Sig, it's anywhere from $5k-$7500 additional pure profit.

No, it's not. Because some of us would likely consider it a breach of contract w/r/t the limited aspect of the Sig. There is very little "Sig benefit" at this point. If they weaken the "limited" value in the Sig offering, that would be very damaging both to the Model S and the Tesla brand.

Also, George was pretty strong in his phrasing regarding the "more founders" rumor. I highly doubt they'd dilute Signature based on what developed around that rumor.

 

[brianman]

@Larry - He said list, not forum. Also I asked him about it in a PM.

 

[Larry Chanin]

@Larry - He said list, not forum. Also I asked him about it in a PM.

Which PNW list then? :wink:

Maybe it would be helpful if he rejoined us in this thread and elaborated.

Larry

 

[unclfuzzy]

... There are other possibilities, and I was just throwing one out there, which is that Tesla makes nice additional profit on Signatures, so why not make a little more than a thousand? For each extra Sig, it's anywhere from $5k-$7500 additional pure profit.

The Signature penalty is only slightly more tolerable because Sigs were sold as a limited production of the first 1000 cars. If they just decide to sell 1500 or 2000 Sigs because they demand is there they are lowering the value of all Sigs which I trust Tesla would not do to those of us that lent them $40K with no interest for several years with no guarantee but our faith in the company that we'd ever see something for it.

 

[Arnold Panz]

Fair enough -- I forgot how emphatic Tesla was about the limited nature of the Sigs (not what appeals to me, but whatever). One additional questions/thought -- I think the exact quote was that there would be 1200 Sigs in North America, including Canada. Is it possible that Tesla has figured that they'll never get 200 Sig orders from Canada, so they moved some of those Canadian Sigs to the US? Just a thought.

I guess my questions stems from not having a good sense where I am in line. In other words, I'm Sig 304, so does that mean there are 244 Sig Specials and 303 regular Sigs in front of me? That's what I always thought, but if I understand Brianman's theory, it's probably close to the 244 Sig Specials (minus dropouts), but then something substantially less than the 303 because for every Sig Special ordered they "skipped" a number in the regular Sig sequence. I had always assumed that they had gone sequentially with both lists, so I figured I was right around the 550th Sig to be built, minus dropouts.

The net result for anyone beyond the Sigs is the same (assuming no more than 1000 US Sigs being built), but for those of us anxiously awaiting our Sigs, this has some impact on when we get our cars and how many are built beforehand (to work out the kinks etc.).

 

[Doug_G]

Fair enough -- I forgot how emphatic Tesla was about the limited nature of the Sigs (not what appeals to me, but whatever). One additional questions/thought -- I think the exact quote was that there would be 1200 Sigs in North America, including Canada. Is it possible that Tesla has figured that they'll never get 200 Sig orders from Canada, so they moved some of those Canadian Sigs to the US? Just a thought.

There were murmurings that this might happen, but as far as I know it hasn't to date.

I believe the Canadian Signature count is at 169, including the SSL's (which aren't being tallied).

I was always surprised that they allocated 200 to Canada, given that we have 1/10th the population.

 

[brianman]

I think the exact quote was that there would be 1200 Sigs in North America, including Canada.

I haven't seen "200 for Canada" published, but I have seen "1,000 for U.S." published. Here's an example:

Model S Options and Pricing | Tesla Motors

MODEL S SIGNATURE
Limited Edition - First 1,000
Deliveries Have Begun!

 

[brianman]

I guess my questions stems from not having a good sense where I am in line. In other words, I'm Sig 304, so does that mean there are 244 Sig Specials and 303 regular Sigs in front of me? That's what I always thought, but if I understand Brianman's theory, it's probably close to the 244 Sig Specials (minus dropouts), but then something substantially less than the 303 because for every Sig Special ordered they "skipped" a number in the regular Sig sequence. I had always assumed that they had gone sequentially with both lists, so I figured I was right around the 550th Sig to be built, minus dropouts.

The first Tally that I could find with an SSL value is here:
Model S Reservation Tally | Forums | Tesla Motors

US
S 517 (October 5, 2011)
SSL 183 (October 5, 2011)

The latest Tally post:
Model S Reservation Tally | Forums | Tesla Motors

US
SSL 244 (January 4, 2012)
S 1,278 (July 27, 2012)

Let's assume that (1) there are no holes and (2) SSL list is now closed (none added from here on out).

I would expect...
S 517 was near 517th in line on October 5, 2011.
S 517 was near 578th (517-183+244) on January 4, 2012.

That suggests 700 (1278 - 578) S reservations behind S 517.

From there you get a tally of 1217 (517 + 700) total signature reservations.

Now let's start to peel away assumption (1), and conclude that there have been 217 (1217 - 1000) cancellations/downgrades.

That all seems totally reasonable to me.

So where is 517 in line now (relative to my projected 578th position above) after accounting for cancellations/downgrades?

Well, it's somewhere in the range [361, 578]. (Where 361 assumes all 217 cancellations/downgrades in the entire Sig list were ahead of S517.)


Regarding Arnold's question about S304... I'd have to add some additional assumptions and guesses since I don't have SSL numbers when S304 was reserved. Sorry, sir.

Edit:
Actually, I'll give it a shot.

SSL reservations between S304 and S507 -> range mapping using the same math as above:

• 0 -> [148,365] No new SSL between S304 and S507.
• 108 -> [298, 440] Same SSL vs. S ratio for S[0,304] as for S[0,507].
• 183 -> [514, 548] All SSL reservations were before S304.

The bold is probably the best SWAG, and likely conservative (meaning you're probably better off than the range shown).

Hope this helps, Arnold.

.

 

[Arnold Panz]

So where is 517 in line now (relative to my projected 578th position above) after accounting for cancellations/downgrades?

Well, it's somewhere in the range [361, 578].


Regarding Arnold's question about S304... I'd have to add some additional assumptions and guesses since I don't have SSL numbers when S304 was reserved. Sorry, sir.

Edit:
Actually, I'll give it a shot.

SSL reservations between S304 and S507 -> range mapping using the same math as above:

• 0 -> [148,365] No new SSL between S304 and S507.
• 108 -> [298, 440] Same SSL vs. S ratio for S[0,304] as for S[0,507].
• 183 -> [514, 548] All SSL reservations were before S304.

The bold is probably the best SWAG, and likely conservative (meaning you're probably better off than the range shown). Hope this helps, Arnold.

Thanks! I appreciate the effort -- I was more curious for the entire Sig list than my unique place in line, so the original calculations on 517 more or less answered my question. Assuming the original theory is correct (they placed holes in the regular Sig sequence as SSLs were ordered), this seems like a fair assumption to me. The numbers also generally seem reasonable with respect to how many dropouts there would be from the overall Sig list.

The VINs may answer this question after the fact, and it will be interesting to see if we ever can figure out which production car # each person actually gets.

 

[Discoducky]

Well, I'm confused, 'cuz my wife and I are SSL#32, and while I did post somewhere that we'd just got our pre-delivery email, it wasn't on the PNW list (which I'm not on).

Pretty sure it's SSL#35 since I'm on the thread.

 

[brianman]

Regarding deliveries...

FF0002x, took delivery at the factory Monday and got an awesome tour!

first post from the car, by the owner

More from this thread...
Model S Deliveries - latest actual info on dates and vehicles being delivered | Forums | Tesla Motors

So a quick list:

• VIN F0002x @ July 30
• F 17 @ July 27
• F 29 @ July 31 --logistics issue--> August 4
• SSL 15 @ August 24
• SSL 30 @ August 25-31
• SSL 32 @ August 25-31
• SSL 35 @ August 25