Model S/X deliveries drop off cliff, down 56%

[MXWing]

I was predicting the entire Model 3 line was going to push down sales of the Model S. The Model 3 has the newer design, and some are saying the S is looking tired, but the S is a far more versatile car. It's larger with a hatchback as @roblab pointed out.

I think the S is a fantastic car and if I were buying today with unlimited budget, I would go for it in a heartbeat, but if I was buying today I would go for the 3 because it fits within my budget better and it's more car for the money. The S is a better car, but I can't justify it's a $30K better car. If it was $10K-$15K more, it would be worth it and I think that's what Tesla is going to have to come down to.

If the new motor upgrade for the S and X is the same motors as the 3, then Tesla will have a cost savings and they can pass that on to the customer providing a better range car for less money. I also expect the update is going to incorporate as much of the Model 3's parts into the S/X line as possible, which will be another cost savings they can pass on. The S might be selling for $10K-$15K more than the 3 by year's end.

The S is a fantastic car if one has an unlimited budget. 3P really only has better v2 charging and access to v3 charging over a P100D.

Few however have an "unlimited budget". That is why except for corner cases, the Model 3 is the superior choice in almost all circumstances for the same dollar.

I don't think the S and X selling for more than 75K the issue. Right now, we just don't get enough for that 75K -relative- to the 3. In fact, the S and X is WORSE than the 3 for latest/greatest.

 

[sandpiper]

The S is a fantastic car if one has an unlimited budget. 3P really only has better v2 charging and access to v3 charging over a P100D.

Few however have an "unlimited budget". That is why except for corner cases, the Model 3 is the superior choice in almost all circumstances for the same dollar.

I don't think the S and X selling for more than 75K the issue. Right now, we just don't get enough for that 75K -relative- to the 3. In fact, the S and X is WORSE than the 3 for latest/greatest.

It's not only value for the money. The reality is that the S and X expanded the market for $100K cars. It drew people in who would never normally have dreamed of such a costly vehicle.

With alternatives available, the market for 100K cars drop back to what it was before.

 

[TeeEmCee]

If Elon will stop insisting on signing off on every little thing and let Franz and a small group loose (was not the original design done that way?) we could have a gorgeous update in just a few months. In my dream world anyway.

There’s likely a lot of truth to this

 

[voidptr]

The problem with Model S as I see it is that there isn’t enough difference in the car itself to justify the price against Model 3. I configured a new 3 and S with everything I’d want. The S was $97,000 the 3 was $61,000. If I had to make that call today I’d go with the 3 as I just can’t see $36,000 worth of difference.

I had a 2013 S. Last year I test-drove the 3 and then bought a 2018 S instead. The trunk on the 3 just isn't comparable to the cargo space in the S for road trips and carrying pets around town.

My replacement for this one might be a 2022 Y, but a 3 just isn't viable for me.

 

[sandpiper]

There’s likely a lot of truth to this

I could be wrong, but I suspect that the design team has a lot more latitude that people imagine. I suspect that the "Elon oversees everything" is, in part, urban myth propagated by the company to further deify him. Don't get me wrong. He's an incredible individual, but I also think he's smart enough to let good people do their work.

 

[ucmndd]

I could be wrong, but I suspect that the design team has a lot more latitude that people imagine. I suspect that the "Elon oversees everything" is, in part, urban myth propagated by the company to further deify him. Don't get me wrong. He's an incredible individual, but I also think he's smart enough to let good people do their work.

Furthermore, I don't think Tesla's problem has ever been designing cool things. It's building and delivering them that is the perpetual issue. Franz isn't gonna fix that.

 

[DMack]

I had a 2013 S. Last year I test-drove the 3 and then bought a 2018 S instead. The trunk on the 3 just isn't comparable to the cargo space in the S for road trips and carrying pets around town.

My replacement for this one might be a 2022 Y, but a 3 just isn't viable for me.

Same here.
I put a deposit on a TM3 the day after it was announced, but ended up leasing a 2018 S after I seeing a TM3 in person and getting to sit in it and compare the two models.

Thing it, though, we're the exception/small sample size of consumers who are in the market for an EV who can afford both cars *and* won't compromise space/cargo room for sticker price.
The rest who can afford both just want an EV that doesn't look like a lunchbox and offers more than 90 miles of range on a charge.

 

[MXWing]

lunchbox

Or looks like it is giving birth to another car.

 

[Watts_Up]

The problem with Model S as I see it is that there isn’t enough difference in the car itself to justify the price against Model 3.
I configured a new 3 and S with everything I’d want. The S was $97,000 the 3 was $61,000.
If I had to make that call today I’d go with the 3 as I just can’t see $36,000 worth of difference.

There is certainly a market for the Model S and X, similar to the Audi A4 versus A8, BMW 3 series versus 7 Series.....

With future luxuries EV models like the BYTON (if this model will ever been made),
I can envision how the future Model S and X might look like, including increase range and performance:

 

[croman]

Very green just discovered something big related to the refresh. Bigger than Project Raven. Stay tuned. He's trying to get a bug bounty.

 

[TeeEmCee]

I could be wrong, but I suspect that the design team has a lot more latitude that people imagine. I suspect that the "Elon oversees everything" is, in part, urban myth propagated by the company to further deify him. Don't get me wrong. He's an incredible individual, but I also think he's smart enough to let good people do their work.

I would like to believe that, but everything I’ve observed seems to point to the contrary.

Elon concentrates a lot of skill (the geeky variety) and a lot of decision power. That’s a combination that can get things moving like nowhere else. Unfortunately, the complement of that is that there’s, and this is just my educated guess, a strong current in favor of having everything of any significance have Elon as the final arbiter. Remember the “any expense over 1 mil must be fully justified” etc. While thats perfectly normal in a business, it’s something the boss tells his lieutenants, not to the whole wide world in a tweet or public statement.

For another angle, take for instance the recent Sherryl Crow incident. Once again he jumped in to save the day ... he just can’t help himself.
A proper manager, having heard of that tweet/situation, would have dispatched someone to assist her, such that the merit for prompt and helpful service would have rested with the company, not the “hero” boss.

I bet a day in the life of the average Tesla manager is full of “I’m not touching that, let Elon decide”.
When the boss is no team player, the team simply won’t play.

 

[Lhshockey24]

Very green just discovered something big related to the refresh. Bigger than Project Raven. Stay tuned. He's trying to get a bug bounty.

Checking ev-cpo now, there are over 100 S 100D for barely $80k, 75D now barely $70k, and some P100D for $90k. It appears they are trying to rapidly offload all of these cars ASAP. 233 X new vehicles available as well.

This is really high for the beginning of a quarter... Something big is coming. They need these cars gone before having to discount even further. Brand new cars for $10k less than the equivalent new build today.

 

[sandpiper]

Very green just discovered something big related to the refresh. Bigger than Project Raven. Stay tuned. He's trying to get a bug bounty.

What the heck is project raven?

 

[sandpiper]

I would like to believe that, but everything I’ve observed seems to point to the contrary.

Elon concentrates a lot of skill (the geeky variety) and a lot of decision power. That’s a combination that can get things moving like nowhere else. Unfortunately, the complement of that is that there’s, and this is just my educated guess, a strong current in favor of having everything of any significance have Elon as the final arbiter. Remember the “any expense over 1 mil must be fully justified” etc. While thats perfectly normal in a business, it’s something the boss tells his lieutenants, not to the whole wide world in a tweet or public statement.

For another angle, take for instance the recent Sherryl Crow incident. Once again he jumped in to save the day ... he just can’t help himself.
A proper manager, having heard of that tweet/situation, would have dispatched someone to assist her, such that the merit for prompt and helpful service would have rested with the company, not the “hero” boss.

I bet a day in the life of the average Tesla manager is full of “I’m not touching that, let Elon decide”.
When the boss is no team player, the team simply won’t play.

Maybe. But I really doubt it. It’s a big company.

 

[Lift]

What the heck is project raven?

Rumored to be the motor upgrade for S&X.

 

[Uncle Paul]

Motor upgrades have already been announced. Less expensive to make and gives additional range.

Everyone seems to think a total overhaul of the S/X is coming, but that is simply not the Tesla way. They will announce some new motors, then a faster computer, then improved software/firmware, then different wheels or tires, then improved lighting, then a new battery pack, then some styling changes, then a refreshed interior, then improved displays, then quieter drive lines, then improved filtration, then faster charging, then improved suspension, then new sensors, then upgraded radar, then video in the car, then...then...then...

Other companies better their cars with refreshes evey few years and total new cars every decade. That has never been the Tesla way.

Tesla S and X have good designs. Model S is still the best looking of all the EV sedans and the X is the most aerodynamic and space efficient of all the EV SUVs. I suspect Tesla will get many more years out of them with just constant updates to all the components.

Keeping the current body styles going for a long time will also protect the value of the entire earlier fleet.

 

[croman]

@Uncle Paul -- you can't argue with VG. He actually knows things instead of sloshing kool aid. Dude says its massive change, well, the code ain't lying.

 

[Uncle Paul]

Then I will stand corrected, and anticipate his announcement.

 

[croman]

Then I will stand corrected, and anticipate his announcement.

We will indeed see what happens. It could be Tesla messing with him. I don't disagree that the S's exterior withstands the test of time and the same with the X but Tesla knows their battery tech is being exposed with the v3 supercharging and track mode in the 3. That's a clear system needing upgrade -- why not combine it with an entire interior refresh and reprice the S and X way above the 3? I think Tesla has been delaying incremental upgrades to fix a stale marketing position (remember they don't do TV ads).

So we have a demand issue and what is a better demand lever than a "refresh" that is mostly focused on bringing the halo on the S/X. The only issue is VG is being a bit coy about what he found because he is hoping Tesla will financially compensate him for discovering the exposed code but Tesla needs to acknowledge the fact its a bug and not just sloppy coding.

 

[ucmndd]

Motor upgrades have already been announced. Less expensive to make and gives additional range.

I know Electrek is basically Tesla state media, but I don't think an unattributed story on their part qualifies as "announced".