Model X Mule Sightings

[Red Sage]

Maybe this is a European perspective talking, but I'm not sure if that is the correct comparison (excluding Porsche). I wouldn't compare Q7 sales to A8 sales, for example.

Perhaps I should have written, "There are no concerns over cannibalization of US sales." instead...? I did write from a US perspective, because I have been told repeatedly that SUVs are not popular elsewhere. More and more often it is said that Europeans in particular would prefer a Model S wagon (equipped with AWD) to the Model X. Since that has been said, so very often, in every discussion of Model X sales potential that I am aware of, I presumed it was not necessary to mention that at all, as it appears to be common knowledge. Rather, I wrote from the US perspective, the one place where pretty much anyone capable of marketing both automobiles and SUVs successfully, seems to invariably sell more of their high end SUV than their high end sedan.

If, for instance, 80% of Model X are sold in North America, leaving 10% for Europe and 10% for Asia... Even if the Model X were built 1:1 with Model S, for 50,000 units each per year... In the US, where Tesla Motors plans to sell ~40% of Model S production, it would be outsold 2:1 per year -- without a drop in sales.

But that example only assumes 20,000 Model S, and 40,000 Model X sold per year in North America. That is very, very conservative. Because from my perspective, the primary competition for Model S is NOT A6/A7, 5-Series or E-Class -- but A8, 7-Series, and CLS-Class/S-Class. Of those, all but the S-Class was outsold by Model S in North America during 2014. And of those sedans, every single one was outsold by the highest cost SUV that their respective brand offered in the US by 2:1, 3:1, or 4:1.

In the US market, high end SUVs dwarf high end sedans in sales. At Lexus it was even worse, with the RX outselling LS at better than 10:1 here. Given the choice of sedan or SUV, automotive customers in the US overwhelmingly choose the SUV variant, regardless of price range.

I expect the Model X will be very popular here.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I'm not sure that SUV/Wagon distinctions will matter much where Model X is concerned.

The chief difference between an SUV and wagon in recent years has been ride height. Wagons traditionally ride at roughly the same height as sedans, while SUVs were taller, ostensibly for off-road capability.

Based on the spy videos, to my eye, Model X does not appear to ride very high. Elon did say back in 2012 that the X was supposed to retain sports car handling while providing the capacity of a van and the fashion of an SUV.

A true wagon with square back and hatch is not as aerodynamic as a liftback setup, so I doubt we will see an "estate" form factor, even in the EU.

I actually think that Model X will have great impact in China. The X will almost certainly have a roomier 2nd row bench than the S, and a better interior overall. This will make it a much more attractive car for people who hire drivers to drive them around.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Perhaps I should have written, "There are no concerns over cannibalization of US sales." instead...? I did write from a US perspective, because I have been told repeatedly that SUVs are not popular elsewhere. More and more often it is said that Europeans in particular would prefer a Model S wagon (equipped with AWD) to the Model X. Since that has been said, so very often, in every discussion of Model X sales potential that I am aware of, I presumed it was not necessary to mention that at all, as it appears to be common knowledge. Rather, I wrote from the US perspective, the one place where pretty much anyone capable of marketing both automobiles and SUVs successfully, seems to invariably sell more of their high end SUV than their high end sedan.

I agree with your overall point of view, as far as my understandably limited knowledge of the U.S. market goes. And I agree that Model S in many places might be sort of a competitor for A8/7 Series, although things like tax breaks, eco reasons, no stretch version, limited luxury features muddy waters here to all sorts of different directions. Truly a market disruptor on many levels. In short, many unlikely people buy the Model S.

Anyway, Tesla and Porsche are different in their sedan/SUV positioning than Audi and BMW are. And Model X isn't really a SUV either, but a CUV.

From the mainstream German manufacturer's point of view - talking of Audi and BMW here - the correct comparison of Q7 and X5 is the A6 and 5 Series, I believe. Those are closer to said SUVs positioning in size, features and original pricing points, and it shows in model numbering, than the highest-end of their sedan lineups like A8/7 Series which are low-volume products - unlike A6/5 Series and Q7/X5 which are fairly high-volume products. It is the future Q9 for example that will be "A8" of SUVs for Audi.

- - - Updated - - -

I'm not sure that SUV/Wagon distinctions will matter much where Model X is concerned.

The chief difference between an SUV and wagon in recent years has been ride height. Wagons traditionally ride at roughly the same height as sedans, while SUVs were taller, ostensibly for off-road capability.

Based on the spy videos, to my eye, Model X does not appear to ride very high. Elon did say back in 2012 that the X was supposed to retain sports car handling while providing the capacity of a van and the fashion of an SUV.

There is a another breed of vehicles, in addition to SUVs and wagons, which is the crossover or as some call it, the CUV.

Notable examples of CUVs near the Model X market (meaning premium manufacturers) are the Audi A6 allroad and the BMW 5 Series GT. These are cars based on the sedan platforms with taller cabins and/or riding somewhat higher. The Audi A6 allroad being an off-road take on the idea, the 5 Series GT more of a luxury liner.

I do get it that Tesla refers to Q7 as inspiration and is shaping the Model X in a way to attack the U.S. SUV market (amongst other things), which is why it will look like an SUV more than an Audi A6 allroad, which I guess to many U.S. eyes looks like it should come with exterior wood-paneling.

But basically the idea isn't much different from the A6 allroad or the 5 Series GT, the Model X is a Model S underneath - making it ride as high as a purpose-designed SUV probably isn't going to happen.

- - - Updated - - -

For some pondering on the potential Model X ride height there is a thread: Ground clearance - X and S look similar, now that pics of the mules are out and about

 

[Red Sage]

Once again, I am not comparing intra-brand market positioning or target audiences. I am comparing their price points for sedans as opposed to price points for SUVs/CUVs. I came up with this strategy to counter the all-knowing Pungoteague_Dave, who swears that high end vehicles are naught more than a niche that barely moves units at all. The highest priced SUVs/CUVs offered by manufacturers from most territories in the US outsell the highest priced sedans from those same manufacturers. In the US AUDI A8 costs more than A7/A6; BMW 7-Series costs more than 5-Series, Mercedes-Benz S-Class/CLS-Class cost more than E-Class. In each case, a fully optioned SUV/CUV from those companies overlaps the pricing of those sedans. And in all but one example, S-Class, the sedans are outsold within the marque. My presumption is that in the US, when buyers decide to buy from a particular manufacturer, they look at everything offered in their price range. And, on these shores, by a consistent 3:1 ratio, they choose the SUV/CUV instead of the sedan for the same out-of-pocket cost. I believe people sense that they get more for their money by buying SUVs. That same notion will carry over to US sales of Model X.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Once again, I am not comparing intra-brand market positioning or target audiences. I am comparing their price points for sedans as opposed to price points for SUVs/CUVs. I came up with this strategy to counter the all-knowing Pungoteague_Dave, who swears that high end vehicles are naught more than a niche that barely moves units at all. The highest priced SUVs/CUVs offered by manufacturers from most territories in the US outsell the highest priced sedans from those same manufacturers. In the US AUDI A8 costs more than A7/A6; BMW 7-Series costs more than 5-Series, Mercedes-Benz S-Class/CLS-Class cost more than E-Class. In each case, a fully optioned SUV/CUV from those companies overlaps the pricing of those sedans. And in all but one example, S-Class, the sedans are outsold within the marque. My presumption is that in the US, when buyers decide to buy from a particular manufacturer, they look at everything offered in their price range. And, on these shores, by a consistent 3:1 ratio, they choose the SUV/CUV instead of the sedan for the same out-of-pocket cost. I believe people sense that they get more for their money by buying SUVs. That same notion will carry over to US sales of Model X.

Your point about the U.S. is appreciated and what follows is a European perspective, I fully appreciate that U.S. is probably different in this regard.

A fully decked out Q7 is an A8 price competitor in any market, I'm sure.

Also, I agree SUVs are very popular in the U.S. and a little less so in Europe, so there are major differences in the sedan vs. SUV, let alone wagon vs. SUV market dynamics comparing across the pond.

To illustrate a little my point concerning the European market why I think is better to compare Q7/X5 sales to A6 and 5 Series, instead of A8 and 7 Series:

For example in Germany (Audi's home turf) Q7 starts at 60 000 eur, while A8 starts at 80 000 eur. Then again, A6 starts at 40 000 eur, so these are not 1:1 in any way. But most importantly, one looks at the features, Q7 is not quite there in A8 territory either for e.g. rear amenities.

A6 and Q7 are regular "family cars" for well-off people, while A8 is a car to chauffer someone in with rear-seat massage, integrated fridge, electric near-flat seating for the rear, wooden tables to work on, ability to move and fold the front passenger seat out of the way from the back electrically and bring up a footrest instead, extensive rear-seat not only entertainment but also control, etc. These kinds of features one will not usually find in a car like the Q7 (and even if one does, usually in a bit compromised fashion), where instead you will find more wagon-like cargo-hauling features and extra seats for kids. Same with 5 Series and X5 vs. the 7 Series.

A8 and 7 Series are special beasts for a niche market. SUVs like Q7 and X5 are mainstream. Now, a future Q9 will probably include such features and be an A8 competitor, so that will be an interesting area to watch for sure and may be more niche than Q7.

So at least in Europe I wouldn't compare Q7 and A8 sales directly, because their target market is sufficiently different, even though of course there is some overlap. Fully decked out A6 or A7 vs. a fully decked out Q7, those are more direct competitors in my opinion here, simply because of the features they offer. Same with 5 Series and X5. In the U.S., maybe it is different, so no comment about that.

p.s. I'm not trying to say nobody buys A8/7 Series to drive themselves. I have done so and was never chauffered, so certainly it happens especially for the short-wheelbase version. But we seem like a minority. A6/A7 is more the driver's sedan of choice.

 

[adiggs]

Once again, I am not comparing intra-brand market positioning or target audiences. I am comparing their price points for sedans as opposed to price points for SUVs/CUVs. I came up with this strategy to counter the all-knowing Pungoteague_Dave, who swears that high end vehicles are naught more than a niche that barely moves units at all. The highest priced SUVs/CUVs offered by manufacturers from most territories in the US outsell the highest priced sedans from those same manufacturers. In the US AUDI A8 costs more than A7/A6; BMW 7-Series costs more than 5-Series, Mercedes-Benz S-Class/CLS-Class cost more than E-Class. In each case, a fully optioned SUV/CUV from those companies overlaps the pricing of those sedans. And in all but one example, S-Class, the sedans are outsold within the marque. My presumption is that in the US, when buyers decide to buy from a particular manufacturer, they look at everything offered in their price range. And, on these shores, by a consistent 3:1 ratio, they choose the SUV/CUV instead of the sedan for the same out-of-pocket cost. I believe people sense that they get more for their money by buying SUVs. That same notion will carry over to US sales of Model X.

I suspect you're thinking the same way I am @Red Sage - I expect that the Model X to Model S ratio in the US will be even more pronounced once Model X manufacturing is fully in swing. Your observation about people looking at everything in their price range, and then US consumers choosing the SUV/CUV over sedan will, I believe, be even more pronounced with Tesla. My rationale is that one of the bits of friction that leads people to buy a smaller and/or more efficient car will be largely absent for people making an S/X choice. Yes - Model S will be more efficient, but when people are faced with the difference between 89 and 80 mpge (my guess at Model X mpge), where they would otherwise be contemplating a choice between 20 and 15 mpg (I believe those are reasonably typical efficiency measures for luxury sedans vs. luxury SUV/CUVs), the absolute impact of the change in efficiency will be much smaller for the Tesla buyer.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I suspect you're thinking the same way I am @Red Sage - I expect that the Model X to Model S ratio in the US will be even more pronounced once Model X manufacturing is fully in swing. Your observation about people looking at everything in their price range

That is interesting, if looking at just the sedan size dynamic and ignoring the SUV question for a while.

For example the A8 and 7 Series do not have foldable rear seats, are such features not a priority in the U.S. in sedans? Is A8 and 7 Series a regular competitor for A6 and 5 Series in the U.S., if the price is right? I would have expected the positioning (and thus features) of the products to play a more significant role, not just price.

My experience on this other side of the pond is many wouldn't take A8 or 7 Series for a family sedan, even if they have the money and are looking for a sedan, it just doesn't compete in the same league because it isn't all that practical for that and there is a stigma of a chauffeured car. Those cars are designed for a different niche, they are at their best when someone is sitting behind the front passenger seat. (Mind you, I have bought such cars for myself so I'm not trying to say this applies to all.)

Of course in Europe the fact that the A6 is offered as station wagon (and A8 not) adds to its appeal here, which is not relevant in the U.S., but in my experience this is the same for the sedan as well. Many would rather take, say, an S6 or A7 than an A8 due to its versatility, if they drive themselves and have a family to haul too. Even when price isn't the key point.

BTW, I am not doubting you guys, I am genuinely interested in how the U.S. car buying market perceives the A6 vs. A8 difference. Is it really so that Q7 mainly competes with A8 for U.S. buyers, not with A6/A7, Audi line-up wise?

(Using Audi as an example for brevity, but same goes for e.g. BMW 5 Series vs. 7 Series in my experience.)

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I was just looking at U.S. prices and with A6 at $46,200 and Q7 at $48,300 it would seem to me they are equally line-up-wise competitors in the U.S., as they are in Europe? A6 and Q7 being even closer in pricing than in Germany. A8 starting at $77,400 is much pricier in the U.S. as well.

So at least that part of equation doesn't seem that different to me, but I guess the argument was the market perception and behavior changes once you spec into the $100,000 territory.

 

[sg021]

Just as anecdotal evidence based on living in the mid-Atlantic US suburbs, I see Q5 and Q7 SUVs all the time as well as the A6. I could count on one hand the number of A7 and A8 I've ever seen.

I find US luxury sedans very impractical now that I have a family. There are no station wagons or even hatched trunks. It's very difficult to transport baby stuff in my car because it can't fit through the trunk opening easily. I don't know if it's a marketing thing to push SUV sales or if there is a real reason for the inconvenient storage. If the model x was not on the horizon I'd definitely get a model s since it addresses most of the sedan shortcomings, it's just a really practical sedan and it baffles me why all the rest are different.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Just as anecdotal evidence based on living in the mid-Atlantic US suburbs, I see Q5 and Q7 SUVs all the time as well as the A6. I could count on one hand the number of A7 and A8 I've ever seen.

Thanks for the experience. Makes sense to me.

I find US luxury sedans very impractical now that I have a family. There are no station wagons or even hatched trunks. It's very difficult to transport baby stuff in my car because it can't fit through the trunk opening easily. I don't know if it's a marketing thing to push SUV sales or if there is a real reason for the inconvenient storage. If the model x was not on the horizon I'd definitely get a model s since it addresses most of the sedan shortcomings, it's just a really practical sedan and it baffles me why all the rest are different.

That may be because Model S isn't really a sedan, I guess, but a coupeish hatchback - aka a station wagon in disguise.

Tesla really has struck a marvelous balance in making the car look sedan enough for the U.S. buyer, coupeish enough to look like a sportscar, all the while being wagonish enough to fit 7 people and great cargo capacity. Of course we have the EV skateboard to thank too, for the interior space and cargo capacity that actually in numbers competes with SUVs like the Q7.

I think Model S and Porsche Panamera really have more in common with the likes of Audi A7 than with A8, 7 Series or the S Class, from a form-factor point of view.

 

[sigurdi]

I had a research about car sales in Europe basen on type and size a white ago.
Numbers compared to total sales in each country.
Some countries did stick out.
Norway an Sweden have higher sales og SUV/CUV than the rest og Europa, where most countries prefere smal cars like Golf or less in size.
Denmark, France, Italy in particular.
Gearmany have higher sales of larger luxury cars.
In Norway it is more then 7000 Model S, a number that is spesial since Norwegian do not prefere sedans at all.
Sedans all breands have low sales numbers compared to other versjons of same car.

I belive as much as 1/2 to 2/3 of the X reservations in Europa is in Norway.
The one type of car, that the X will wipe away Model S is as Taxi.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I had a research about car sales in Europe basen on type and size a white ago.
Numbers compared to total sales in each country.
Some countries did stick out.
Norway an Sweden have higher sales og SUV/CUV than the rest og Europa, where most countries prefere smal cars like Golf or less in size.
Denmark, France, Italy in particular.
Gearmany have higher sales of larger luxury cars.
In Norway it is more then 7000 Model S, a number that is spesial since Norwegian do not prefere sedans at all.
Sedans all breands have low sales numbers compared to other versjons of same car.

I belive as much as 1/2 to 2/3 of the X reservations in Europa is in Norway.
The one type of car, that the X will wipe away Model S is as Taxi.

Fair point that the autobahn culture in Germany makes it special.

As always, such a pleasure to read your informative posts, sigurdi. A sight for sore eyes.

 

[Red Sage]

OK. I'll try to remember all I wanted to say here without quoting you guys. It's hard to keep track of editing functions on my phone. ;-)

Regarding limousine use: On the west coast, and especially in Los Angeles, people who own AUDI A8 or BMW 7-Series typically drive themselves. Often they roll these barges alone, or with a single passenger -- in the front seat. I track this to a long-held, traditional automotive buying outlook that clings to a "Make big money, drive big cars, everybody knows me, it's like I'm a movie star!" mindset. It is a matter of status, and a perception of exclusivity, as compared to expectations of luxury, at work here... for the most part. Some call it 'conspicuous consumption'.

Regarding rarity: That's what I've been saying all along... The most expensive sedans are less popular than equivalently expensive SUVs/CUVs. The most expensive sedans are obviously less popular than lower cost sedans. If you sell more of a $90,000+ vehicle than a $60,000+ one, there is probably something wrong with the lower cost ride.

Regarding size: Overall dimensions for height, length, width, and wheelbase only tell part of the tale. Another factor is useable interior volume. And with that metric, the Tesla Model S is EPA classified as a Full Sized car -- just are Mercedes-Benz S-Class, BMW 7-Series, and AUDI A8. That is why I insist those are the direct competitors for Model S, rather than their junior stablemates -- E-Class, 5-Series, and A6 -- which are all Mid-sized cars.

Regarding extended wheelbase variants: Idunno... Maybe it's different in Europe, but in the US hardly anyone drives an AUDI A8L or Porsche Panamera Executive. Hint: If it doesn't have the 'L' or 'Executive' on the back it is practically the same size as a Model S.

Heck, I didn't even realize there were a couple of different sizes for the BMW 7-Series until after I joined this conversation. I doubt that most buyers even notice, because otherwise 7-Series are practically identical. My guess, and it's only a guess because I'm not at all sure, is that it has to do with whether or not an 'L' appears as part of its nomenclature.

The teensy weensy 4"-to-6" difference in wheelbase is only useful for those who'll hire out for limousine service, or customize for use by basketball stars. Otherwise, the added expense is utterly ridiculous from a US perspective. That's because these 'extended' cars are only 'normal length' from the perspective of Cadillac and Lincoln patrons.

EDIT: Oops! Whaddayaknow... The AUDI A8 is only Mid-sized after all...
Compare Side-by-Side - Model S, A8, 750i, & S550

You must choose the AUDI A8L to get the 'Large Cars' designation from the EPA...
Compare Side-by-Side - Model S, 750i, S550, & A8L

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Red Sage: I get the interior volume point. Thank you for that.

Model S as an A8/7 Series/S Class competitor size-wise, I wonder if the size of the car matters too - for perception at least.

Model S is spacious for obvious reasons, but it is still over 6 inches shorter than e.g. the regular A8 and over 11 inches shorter than the A8L, to use Audi as example. I doubt these are insignificant numbers in car classification anywhere. An Audi A7 or Audi A6 station wagon is very nearly the same length as Model S. Co-incidentally, also Audi Q7 is about the length as Model S, a bit longer.

A8/7 Series/S Class are in a class of their own there, relative to the crowd discussed - German mainstream premiums and Tesla. IMO Model S is actually a surprisingly small car when moving from A8/7 Series/S Class, extremities-wise.

No argument from me for the rest though: From my limited perception too is that cars like the S Class are popular solo drivers for the well-off on the U.S. west coast, so at least there our perceptions align. This is probably somewhat true for high-end executives in many western countries as well, for example in Germany an A8 really is made for the autobahn, L or not. And I get it that the traditional sedan size in the U.S. differs greatly from the European peception too - and that the chauffered car market in Europe is quite different to the U.S.

All that said, I can well see why the latter groups of people could go from A8/7 Series/S Class to Model S, no matter its size. Model S definitely is a statement-making high-end driver's car.

 

[NigelM]

Request to HRH-Mod: can we move these last 2 pages of Audi etc discussion to somewhere else please?

 

[Red Sage]

The reason for the discussion is a continuation of the theme: Model X is built on the Model S platform. The Model S, despite not having the overall length of extended wheelbase competitors, still features either similar, or superior, interior volume to them. Some have raised concerns that Model X will have interior capacity for cargo and passengers that is inferior to its ICE rivals. I submit that instead, the volume advantage for the Model S will be exponentially greater for the Model X.

Also, buyers in North America purchase SUVs in high numbers specifically because of their size relative to sedans in the same price range. They believe that size matters, you get what you pay for, and get more for your money -- by purchasing the roomiest vehicles around. The Model X should fit that bill magnificently.

Thus, this portion of the discussion is relevant, and should remain in place. That is, of course, unless the moderators intend to remove all references of size comparison to another thread.

 

[bonnie]

The reason for the discussion is a continuation of the theme: Model X is built on the Model S platform. The Model S, despite not having the overall length of extended wheelbase competitors, still features either similar, or superior, interior volume to them. Some have raised concerns that Model X will have interior capacity for cargo and passengers that is inferior to its ICE rivals. I submit that instead, the volume advantage for the Model S will be exponentially greater for the Model X.

Also, buyers in North America purchase SUVs in high numbers specifically because of their size relative to sedans in the same price range. They believe that size matters, you get what you pay for, and get more for your money -- by purchasing the roomiest vehicles around. The Model X should fit that bill magnificently.

Thus, this portion of the discussion is relevant, and should remain in place. That is, of course, unless the moderators intend to remove all references of size comparison to another thread.

This thread is (originally) about spotting of the Model X mule. No one is saying that other discussions aren't important, only that this particular thread is for a particular topic.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

The reason for the discussion is a continuation of the theme: Model X is built on the Model S platform. The Model S, despite not having the overall length of extended wheelbase competitors, still features either similar, or superior, interior volume to them. Some have raised concerns that Model X will have interior capacity for cargo and passengers that is inferior to its ICE rivals. I submit that instead, the volume advantage for the Model S will be exponentially greater for the Model X.

Also, buyers in North America purchase SUVs in high numbers specifically because of their size relative to sedans in the same price range. They believe that size matters, you get what you pay for, and get more for your money -- by purchasing the roomiest vehicles around. The Model X should fit that bill magnificently.

Thus, this portion of the discussion is relevant, and should remain in place. That is, of course, unless the moderators intend to remove all references of size comparison to another thread.

By the way, I agree Model S already has superior interior volume in its class (be that A6 or A8, to use the Audi reference). It nearly has the capacity of a Q7 for cargo, in theoretical numbers.

I too expect Model X to crush the competition, cargo-space wise.

p.s. I don't mind a mod making a thread titled "Model X size compared to competition" or somesuch and moving this there.

 

[Phil K]

Model X video - testing autopilot?

On Youtube
Tesla X on the freeway. Crash avoidance enabled? - YouTube

 

[Paul Carter]

Request to HRH-Mod: can we move these last 2 pages of Audi etc discussion to somewhere else please?

Away for a few days with limited spare time. If AnOutsider doesn't get to this first, I'll review this later in the week.