Model X Production ramp up discussion

[engle]

George B at the X Reveal & 11/10/2015 X Prod Config Prediction

Agreed. These are the times I REALLY miss George B and Jerome.:crying:

I talked to George B at the X Reveal during Elon's presentation. He was standing about half way across the room far from the front along the left wall next to the side curtain as you face the stage. I noticed this man that looked like him, so I said: "You look like George Blankenship". He beamed and said: "I am George Blankenship!" He recognized me from the early Model S days from a couple of ad hoc interviews I did and posted to Youtube. He used to call me "the guy from Tesla Motors Club".

I am not going to discuss our private conversation except for a few interesting takeaways that I'll paraphrase here.

GB commented that: "the guys in Germany are watching this right now (on the live stream) and they are very, very unhappy".

I confirmed that he personally final interviewed all the people that were hired to work at the stores during his tenure.

I asked GB if he planned to write about his experiences working for the late Steve Jobs, and Elon Musk, someday? He said that everybody asks him that question. He isn't going to do it "because I would have to be honest". My guess is this is partly out of respect for Steve's family since he was known to be quite mercurial and insensitive with subordinates when he was displeased with their work.

When Elon's presentation was over, I shook his hand and thanked GB on behalf of all of us for what he did at Tesla prior to his retirement. It felt kind of eerie standing next to the man I'd watched enthusiastically introduce Elon in the factory at the Model S Beta Ride Event back in 2011 watching Elon Reveal the X. I wondered what was going through his mind?

PS. I'm a perpetual optimist. Now I've convinced myself that the first production X reservationists will be invited to configure on Tuesday, November 10, 2015.

Teslamotors.com website X reservations opened at Noon on Friday, February 10th, 2012 - one day after the Model X Alpha event the night before in Hawthorne. 11/10/2015 is exactly 3 years and 9 months to the day.

Elon and company, please make it happen!!

 

[FredTMC]

Wow. That was great that George B was there. I didn't run into him. I woulda been happy to shake his hand

i did see Franz Von running around...

 

[MitchJi]

PS. I'm a perpetual optimist. Now I've convinced myself that the first production X reservationists will be invited to configure on Tuesday, November 10, 2015.

It will mean a lot more to me when Bonnie gets a firm delivery date.

 

[engle]

It will mean a lot more to me when Bonnie gets a firm delivery date.

I agree that Ken's and Bonnie's delivery dates are absolutely key to start some kind of ramp-up.

As an investor, I'd also like to see many thousands of firm production orders locked-in to Tesla's MRP (Materials Requirements Planning) system. As an early production customer, I'd like to lock-in my order and just forget about it until I'm notified when I can go pick it up at the factory. I spend too much valuable time checking this forum... It's an (enjoyable) distraction. Also, I thought I'd read that TSLA claimed at one point they "expected" to invite all production reservation holders to configure by the end of 2015? They have 51 calendar days left. I don't see how that's going to happen with all the weekends and holidaze unless they start inviting people en masse.

They really need to learn to under promise and over deliver. It's really not hard at all. Hopefully, they will apply the K.I.S.S. principle for Model 3 like Elon has claimed using different language.

I agree 100% with PGeer, ohmman, Alec, Merrill, AlMc, and so many others' sentiments regarding Tesla's lack of useful communications to Signature customers and reservation holders.

I really don't understand why they don't send simple emails when there are delays to explain the general nature, e.g.:

"Dear Signature Model X Customer,

The team here at the Tesla Factory is working overtime to make your Signature Model X truly deserving of the name. Our production ramp-up is taking longer than we anticipated due to ...
Therefore, our current expectation is that we will start shipping Signature X's ...

We'll update you if this changes, and your Delivery Specialist will be in touch a few weeks before your Signature X is scheduled for delivery to finalize arrangements.

Thanks for your patience and understanding,

Elon Musk, CEO
Tesla Motors, Inc."

 

[andrewket]

So still no news on deliveries in the US?

Back in august I sold my Model S because I thought I saw a snowball effect. People invited to configure, two week (or so?) timeframes given to complete configuration, launch event in end september.

And now we`re soon half way through november, and nothing has changed. I`ve begun to fear driving next summer vacation in europe in a rental. Not quite what I had in mind back in august.

You may have reacted a bit too fast, but by summer hopefully you'll have your X.

 

[dirkhh]

You may have reacted a bit too fast, but by summer hopefully you'll have your X.

Yeah, if Tesla is still in business, chances are summer 2017 he'll have the car...

 

[MitchJi]

Therefore, our current expectation is that we will start shipping Signature X's ...

We'll update you if this changes, and your Delivery Specialist will be in touch a few weeks before your Signature X is scheduled for delivery to finalize arrangements.

I think the reason they reprimanded the DS who told the buyer that his MX was in production is because they didn't know (and still don't know) when they will be able to deliver the cars.

I understand that if they communicated better that would reduce some of the dissatisfaction. OTOH I'm sure they're doing their best and that probably ("we're very confident") by the end of December they'll start producing several hundred cars per week.

We have no control over how Tesla handles this delay, but we can control our own response, so I think the best thing we can do is to be patient.

 

[DaveT]

I really don't understand why they don't send simple emails when there are delays to explain the general nature, e.g.:

"Dear Signature Model X Customer,

The team here at the Tesla Factory is working overtime to make your Signature Model X truly deserving of the name. Our production ramp-up is taking longer than we anticipated due to ...
Therefore, our current expectation is that we will start shipping Signature X's ...

We'll update you if this changes, and your Delivery Specialist will be in touch a few weeks before your Signature X is scheduled for delivery to finalize arrangements.

Thanks for your patience and understanding,

Elon Musk, CEO
Tesla Motors, Inc."

+1.

I agree Tesla desperately needs to improve their communication. And it is concerning that they apparently don't see that need. The later they are with delivering the Model X, the more they need to communicate with reservation holders.

I also think they should have a special Sig X reservation holder test drive event, like ASAP. They should have it on the weekend, maybe on a Saturday and Sunday. It could be at their factory. And give each Sig X reservation holder at least 30 minutes in a Model X to test drive and ask questions. They could do this a few weekends in a row. But it should happen this month and not later.

 

[RazendeRoeland]

Tesla zal eerst alle sig-reserveringen in de US uitleveren voordat Europa aan de beurt is. Ik woon in Nederland en hoop van harte dat mijn sig <200 in het jaar 2016 geleverd wordt. Niet omdat ik ongeduldig ben, maar per 1 januari 2017 gaat de fiscale bijtelling voor het privégebruik over de eerste € 50K slechts 4% en boven de € 50K met 22% worden belast i.p.v. de huidige bijtelling van 4% over de aankoopprijs. Uitgaande dat de sig X zal kosten € 140.000 is dat 90.000 x (22 -/- 4 = 18%) = € 16.200 extra bijtelling op de (140.000 x 4% = €5.600).... geen klein verschil € 5.600 of € 21.800 bruto bijtelling. Dus maar duimen dat ze snel gaan beginnen in Tilburg en dat alle sigs voor Nederland ook daadwerkelijk in 2016 worden geleverd!

 

[goneskiian]

Tesla zal eerst alle sig-reserveringen in de US uitleveren voordat Europa aan de beurt is. Ik woon in Nederland en hoop van harte dat mijn sig <200 in het jaar 2016 geleverd wordt. Niet omdat ik ongeduldig ben, maar per 1 januari 2017 gaat de fiscale bijtelling voor het privégebruik over de eerste € 50K slechts 4% en boven de € 50K met 22% worden belast i.p.v. de huidige bijtelling van 4% over de aankoopprijs. Uitgaande dat de sig X zal kosten € 140.000 is dat 90.000 x (22 -/- 4 = 18%) = € 16.200 extra bijtelling op de (140.000 x 4% = €5.600).... geen klein verschil € 5.600 of € 21.800 bruto bijtelling. Dus maar duimen dat ze snel gaan beginnen in Tilburg en dat alle sigs voor Nederland ook daadwerkelijk in 2016 worden geleverd!

Since I don't speak Dutch I had to run this through Google translate...

"Tesla will first sig all reservations in the US extradite before Europe 's turn . I live in the Netherlands and hope that my sig < 200 is delivered in the year 2016 . Not because I'm impatient, but by January 1, 2017 is the tax liability for private use over the first € 50K are taxed only 4% above the € 50K by 22 % instead of the current addition of 4 % on the purchase price. Assuming that the sig X will cost € 140,000 is 90 000 x ( 22 - / - 4 = 18 %) = € 16,200 extra on the aggregation (140,000 x 4 % = € 5600 ) .... no small difference € 5,600 or € 21 800 gross addition. So fingers crossed that they will soon begin in Tilburg and that all sigs for the Netherlands is actually delivered in 2016 !"

Cheers!

 

[Matt_D]

to avoid Osbourning Model S sales

Major props for a term I haven't heard in years.

 

[FlatSix911]

Just could not resist posting this graph ... http://insideevs.com/tesla-motors-just-needs-to-keep-tracking-the-ford-model-t/
A great article on the parallel growth paths of the early days of Ford Motor company and Tesla Motors

There have been many comparisons of Tesla Motors to Ford Motor Company, but the parallel in the production data presented by Bloomberg is facinating.
Tesla Motors achieved the 10,000 autos produced milestone in 2013, the same milestone Ford Motor Company achieved in 1909 with the Model T.

By 1916, just seven years later, the Model T broke the half million mark with 501,462 autos. This is within the same time frame that Elon Musk has set as the goal for Tesla Motors.
With the Gigafactory ahead of schedule, could the Model ≡ be the first auto from Tesla to launch on time thus possibly aiding in an uncanny mirror of the Ford Model T?

 

[engle]

Saw the Dutch post in my email update and ran it through Google translate, too. Next time, I'll click the link to TMC, first.

One of my sources has confirmed that 901 Page Road is definitely being set-up to manufacture Model X interiors. It was empty when we were there for the "Reveal" on 9/29/2015, so presumably they aren't actually manufacturing any magic seats there yet. This implies to me that Futuris is still building seats for them at their facility in Newark, CA. Otherwise, they'll have no magic seats to install in the Sigs.

Futuris:
6601 Overlake Pl, Newark, CA 94560
http://www.glassdoor.com/Overview/Working-at-Futuris-Automotive-EI_IE658472.11,29.htm
http://www.manufacturing.net/news/2014/09/futuris-opens-manufacturing-facility-in-north-america

Still hiring for 4 positions?
https://www.linkedin.com/job/futuris-automotive/jobs/

Peter Carlsson, Vice President, Supply Chain at Tesla (not a source, quoted in one of the above links)

I'm also waiting to see if I'll get any "color" from an indirect source I acquired recently. This person is definitely in a position to know exactly what's delaying the X. Therefore, I don't expect they will share any info since TSLA is acting like APPL now. In TSLA's case, IMHO it's to protect the stock price for future secondary offerings to minimize dilution. The Model S referral program sequel is being used to keep the order book full in Q4 to try to meet or beat estimates without much contributed from Model X.

If I learn anything further, I'll post while protecting my sources of course.

Since I don't speak Dutch I had to run this through Google translate...

"Tesla will first sig all reservations in the US extradite before Europe 's turn . I live in the Netherlands and hope that my sig < 200 is delivered in the year 2016 . Not because I'm impatient, but by January 1, 2017 is the tax liability for private use over the first € 50K are taxed only 4% above the € 50K by 22 % instead of the current addition of 4 % on the purchase price. Assuming that the sig X will cost € 140,000 is 90 000 x ( 22 - / - 4 = 18 %) = € 16,200 extra on the aggregation (140,000 x 4 % = € 5600 ) .... no small difference € 5,600 or € 21 800 gross addition. So fingers crossed that they will soon begin in Tilburg and that all sigs for the Netherlands is actually delivered in 2016 !"

Cheers!

Tesla will lose some customers when tax benefits like this expire in different geographies.

PS. OK, tomorrow is another Thursday... We'll know in several hours if 1st production batch is invited to configure. Maybe they're waiting for TSLA to trade at $200/share again like it did on April 6th?

 

[CmdrThor]

PS. OK, tomorrow is another Thursday... We'll know in several hours if 1st production batch is invited to configure. Maybe they're waiting for TSLA to trade at $200/share again like it did on April 6th?

I find it hard to fathom that Tesla will base the date production reservation holders are invited to configure on the stock price. But what do I know.

 

[FredTMC]

Saw the Dutch post in my email update and ran it through Google translate, too. Next time, I'll click the link to TMC, first.

One of my sources has confirmed that 901 Page Road is definitely being set-up to manufacture Model X interiors. It was empty when we were there for the "Reveal" on 9/29/2015, so presumably they aren't actually manufacturing any magic seats there yet. This implies to me that Futuris is still building seats for them at their facility in Newark, CA. Otherwise, they'll have no magic seats to install in the Sigs.

Futuris:
6601 Overlake Pl, Newark, CA 94560
http://www.glassdoor.com/Overview/Working-at-Futuris-Automotive-EI_IE658472.11,29.htm
http://www.manufacturing.net/news/2014/09/futuris-opens-manufacturing-facility-in-north-america

Still hiring for 4 positions?
https://www.linkedin.com/job/futuris-automotive/jobs/

Peter Carlsson, Vice President, Supply Chain at Tesla (not a source, quoted in one of the above links)

I'm also waiting to see if I'll get any "color" from an indirect source I acquired recently. This person is definitely in a position to know exactly what's delaying the X. Therefore, I don't expect they will share any info since TSLA is acting like APPL now. In TSLA's case, IMHO it's to protect the stock price for future secondary offerings to minimize dilution. The Model S referral program sequel is being used to keep the order book full in Q4 to try to meet or beat estimates without much contributed from Model X.

If I learn anything further, I'll post while protecting my sources of course.



Tesla will lose some customers when tax benefits like this expire in different geographies.

PS. OK, tomorrow is another Thursday... We'll know in several hours if 1st production batch is invited to configure. Maybe they're waiting for TSLA to trade at $200/share again like it did on April 6th?

Wow. This is really interesting that 901 Page Road is where MX second row seats are being made.

couple questions:

if I understand what you're saying correctly, Seats for Signature MXs will largely be provided by Futuris. Whereas, moving toward, "production" MXs will have second row seats manufactured by Tesla. Is this correct?

do you think tesla wil be making the whole second row seats? (Foam cutting, leather trimming, etc) or is tesla just integrating the seats built by Futuris onto the "mono posts " built by tesla?

lastly, sounds as if you think many Sigs are still on track for deliveries by year end, right?

 

[MrBoylan]

Wow. This is really interesting that 901 Page Road is where MX second row seats are being made.

couple questions:

if I understand what you're saying correctly, Seats for Signature MXs will largely be provided by Futuris. Whereas, moving toward, "production" MXs will have second row seats manufactured by Tesla. Is this correct?

do you think tesla wil be making the whole second row seats? (Foam cutting, leather trimming, etc) or is tesla just integrating the seats built by Futuris onto the "mono posts " built by tesla?

lastly, sounds as if you think many Sigs are still on track for deliveries by year end, right?

I should really go back and ask my Uber Driver for more details...

Seat manufacturing moving entirely in-house?

 

[engle]

I find it hard to fathom that Tesla will base the date production reservation holders are invited to configure on the stock price. But what do I know.

Sorry, I should have included more than 1 of these rolling-eyes smiley faces:



It was pure sarcasm on my part!

 

[Matias]

There's 6 and a half weeks left this year and still complete radio silence from Tesla. Bonnie (sig number 2) still has got no information about delivery.

IIRC Bonnie has said that Tesla has promised to inform her at least two weeks before delivery.

Edit: one week.

 

[jasonsc]

I thought I saw where Bonnie said 1 week before delivery..... but at this point I'm not going to be splitting hairs over a week here or a week there... unfortunately...

 

[bonnie]

I asked for a week notice.