Model X Production ramp up discussion

[Krugerrand]

These other features have caused much of the delay and added significant expense.

Yeah, but to me it's simply: SURPRISE!!!!
:biggrin:

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If you were a consumer of the vehicles instead of an observer, you may feel differently. There's a different commitment, and therefore a different mindset.

I wouldn't feel differently. I've been a consumer of many other things, including several other vehicles. I don't get bent about *this kind of stuff* because on my scale of 1 to 10 of importance, it barely registers. And as I said, I like surprises. Whether it's a good surprise or a bad surprise is entirely up to me and what frame of mind I want to embrace.

 

[Aljohn]

@AnxietyR... First, its is certainly ok to have a differing opinion. However, I suggest one just looks at the Model X Forum. There are (on page ONE) nearly 90 Threads and discussions. Each with their own questions. Yes an answer will lead to more speculation. Take the Launch for example, everyone didn't get to sit in and measure or drive Elon's Founders car that was on stage for 4+ hours. Pictures were taken, rides were provided, press had their reviews and analysis. Elon sent tweets on a couple of items.... yet here were are, with 90 Threads discussing what we, individually and collectively, want to know. IMHO, if the Model X were to Osborne Model S, sales... it would already occur. The Model X is known to have more features than the Model S (at the present time).

I can't, nor will I try to predict the effect on Model S... what every will be, the market will determine as Model X's are on the road and in the Design Centers around the country. That said, I still think there is no up-side for Tesla trying to appease these forums insatiable appetite.
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/member.php/27769-AnxietyRanger

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Yeah, but to me it's simply: SURPRISE!!!!
:biggrin:

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I wouldn't feel differently. I've been a consumer of many other things, including several other vehicles. I don't get bent about *this kind of stuff* because on my scale of 1 to 10 of importance, it barely registers. And as I said, I like surprises. Whether it's a good surprise or a bad surprise is entirely up to me and what frame of mind I want to embrace.

Based on my years of experience reading car forums, the effect of a "surprise" has nothing to do with frame of mind and everything to do with the end-user's needs. If folding seats are a requirement for a buyer, most buyers are not simply going to tell themselves it's a good surprise when the seats turn out not to fold. You may not agree with me, but it's the reality of the marketplace.

 

[AlMc]

Yeah, but to me it's simply: SURPRISE!!!!
:biggrin:

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I wouldn't feel differently. I've been a consumer of many other things, including several other vehicles. I don't get bent about *this kind of stuff* because on my scale of 1 to 10 of importance, it barely registers. And as I said, I like surprises. Whether it's a good surprise or a bad surprise is entirely up to me and what frame of mind I want to embrace.

I like surprises too but not when it comes to a six figure vehicle. In addition, I hope the *Surprise* does not include a delay in TM completing the mission statement or a delay in the first quarter of positive cash flow for investors. Maybe it will, maybe it won't but I will happily pass on that *surprise*.

 

[ohmman]

I wouldn't feel differently. I've been a consumer of many other things, including several other vehicles. I don't get bent about *this kind of stuff* because on my scale of 1 to 10 of importance, it barely registers. And as I said, I like surprises. Whether it's a good surprise or a bad surprise is entirely up to me and what frame of mind I want to embrace.

I appreciate your great feedback. I'm going to totally change my frame of mind. I'm glad Tesla continues to delay the release of the MX, despite holding my deposit... because, I mean.. the waiting is the most valuable part! And also, nothing beats having a reduced charging ability compared to my 2 year old MS. Because, um... it's great to hang out at random KOAs longer!

With all due respect, you are neither an owner nor a reservation holder, but feel qualified to give expectation advice to people who are both. It comes off as strongly dismissive, and if I may, a bit arrogant.

 

[Krugerrand]

Based on my years of experience reading car forums, the effect of a "surprise" has nothing to do with frame of mind and everything to do with the end-user's needs. If folding seats are a requirement for a buyer, most buyers are not simply going to tell themselves it's a good surprise when the seats turn out not to fold. You may not agree with me, but it's the reality of the marketplace.

I think that's an exaggeration and here's why; there just haven't been that many opportunities during Internet car forum days for people to put down a reservation on a revolutionary vehicle no one has ever seen, built, or experienced before such as the Model S/X, AND waited years for it not knowing the final details. Most of the time people test drive and examine a vehicle before they order/purchase it, thus knowing if it'll meet their needs beforehand or not. It has always made a lot of sense to do that, particularly because a vehicle is a big ticket item that a lot of people depend on; to get to work, to transport family members etc... We've witnessed a bit of a phenomena where Tesla is concerned.

I'm not arguing how others are going to view a change in an expected and needed feature, I was specifically stating my view of life in general. I've made purchases sight unseen which were considered out of the ordinary and very risky to do in my industry. And yes, there were surprises. How could there not be? I've never regretted those decisions and I've never labelled the surprises as negative, even though I understand others might and have viewed them that way. Being positive makes my life better. A surprise is often an opportunity for me to learn something new, go in a different direction, or any number of other possibilities, therefore I'm okay with surprises. And as I stated previously, this type of situation (Model X) hardly registers on my scale of importance in the bigger picture of life. It would get an appropriate level of angst, most likely in line with my emotional investment to that/those needed features, but that angst would be very short-lived, then I move on. That's just me. I acknowledge others work and think differently.

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I appreciate your great feedback. I'm going to totally change my frame of mind. I'm glad Tesla continues to delay the release of the MX, despite holding my deposit... because, I mean.. the waiting is the most valuable part! And also, nothing beats having a reduced charging ability compared to my 2 year old MS. Because, um... it's great to hang out at random KOAs longer!

With all due respect, you are neither an owner nor a reservation holder, but feel qualified to give expectation advice to people who are both. It comes off as strongly dismissive, and if I may, a bit arrogant.

I wasn't giving advice. I was very specifically giving my personal view and how I'd feel about it. I am allowed to do that here. And while I'm not a Model X reservation holder, nor am I customer of one in this lifetime, I have taken greater risks in my own industry - meaning I do in fact have a frame of reference with which to compare.

I'm going to ignore all the rest of your post out of respect for forum rules.

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I like surprises too but not when it comes to a six figure vehicle. In addition, I hope the *Surprise* does not include a delay in TM completing the mission statement or a delay in the first quarter of positive cash flow for investors. Maybe it will, maybe it won't but I will happily pass on that *surprise*.

I understand your view.

 

[FlatSix911]

Several threads here suggested that the curve of X is predicted to be similar to that of the S. Does anybody have hard numbers of how the S' launch went?
Something like what modelxtracker.com does? Or maybe a spreadsheet with number of cars produced/delivered each month?

I think the market is more concerned with how many vehicles deliver Q4 rather than which models. Tesla delivering a lot of MX in 2016 doesn't seem to be at risk.
Presumably the strategic choices Tesla will make over the next six months are designed to minimize the cost of acquiring additional capital.

1600 to 1800 vehicles per week - that would be 20800 to 23400 vehicles per quarter, or 7000 to 7800 per month. Per this site here (Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard), an average of 1890 Model S have been sold per month in the US (I don't know how accurate that is). I'm not sure how to extrapolate international Model S sales from that, but it would still leave a good amount of room for Model X productions.

Here is the worldwide delivery history and forecast for 4Q15 to make the 50K goal for 2015.
I see the YE hockey stick effect... http://insideevs.com/tesla-motors-hopes-for-highest-jump-of-sales-ever-in-the-fourth-quarter/

 

[AnxietyRanger]

@AnxietyR... First, its is certainly ok to have a differing opinion. However, I suggest one just looks at the Model X Forum. There are (on page ONE) nearly 90 Threads and discussions. Each with their own questions. Yes an answer will lead to more speculation. Take the Launch for example, everyone didn't get to sit in and measure or drive Elon's Founders car that was on stage for 4+ hours. Pictures were taken, rides were provided, press had their reviews and analysis. Elon sent tweets on a couple of items.... yet here were are, with 90 Threads discussing what we, individually and collectively, want to know. IMHO, if the Model X were to Osborne Model S, sales... it would already occur. The Model X is known to have more features than the Model S (at the present time).

I can't, nor will I try to predict the effect on Model S... what every will be, the market will determine as Model X's are on the road and in the Design Centers around the country. That said, I still think there is no up-side for Tesla trying to appease these forums insatiable appetite.
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/member.php/27769-AnxietyRanger

Model S sales protection is just one reason. There is enough to show for it: Model S sales push towards Model X interested people during the wait, referral program during to Model X launch period encouraging Model S sales, keeping Model X launch hidden until the final minute (as opposed to showing Model S progress openly during its development). Protecting Model S sales has certainly been a factor for Tesla.

Now, more important factors this autumn have probably been stock price and protecting initial Model X orders. They had to launch in Q3 due to stock price (and internal) expectations. But they've kept mum on details beyond that because they know the car isn't easy and that has resulted in delays that could affect stock but also compromised to the initial car that might cause buyers to defer and delay orders... Thus hurting the launch and stock price. Well, that's my speculation and you have yours.

I mean, this is not about Tesla answering uncharacteristically detailed questions. They are omitting far more information for Model X orderers even than any other car company would absolutely give before taking your order. Tesla is withholding more than usual when you buy a car that has launched.

 

[schonelucht]

A leakster knew it months ago, so we can only assume Tesla did as well.

My personal theory right now is that Eds was working for the original seat manufacturer and probably learned around that time that Tesla was bringing seat production in house. His internal position probably would have been : "that's nuts what you are doing, just give us a few more weeks to fix our problems, getting a new seat production on line in house will set you back till at least the end of the year!" Ultimately Tesla must have made that decision anyway and at that point Eds knew based on the facts 1) they would delay until the end of the year 2) they would be able to produce at most a few hundreds cars if they started hand assembly as much as possible. His claim about why Tesla would want to keep this secret was stock price related, was speculation. I give him 8/10 for accuracy but hindsight is not even 20/20.

 

[KJD]

I appreciate your great feedback. I'm going to totally change my frame of mind. I'm glad Tesla continues to delay the release of the MX, despite holding my deposit... because, I mean.. the waiting is the most valuable part! And also, nothing beats having a reduced charging ability compared to my 2 year old MS. Because, um... it's great to hang out at random KOAs longer!

How many KOA's have 80 amp outlets ?
None that I know of.

Now I agree that Tesla should offer a 72 amp on board charger as an option, but really the 40 amp charger is plenty for an overnight charge.

 

[bonnie]

And also, nothing beats having a reduced charging ability compared to my 2 year old MS. Because, um... it's great to hang out at random KOAs longer!

How many KOA's have 80 amp outlets ?
None that I know of.

Now I agree that Tesla should offer a 72 amp on board charger as an option, but really the 40 amp charger is plenty for an overnight charge.

I think you missed his point. With reduced charging, random KOAs are fine. (Well there are additional problems, but that's best left for another thread.)

I've taken my Roadster on more than a few roadtrips with no 70amp options (max a Roadster can charge) - which means I've used plenty of 40amp options during the day, not just for overnight. And it's painfully long.

The issue isn't so much overnight (though it is for those of us that want to charge during lowest TOU rates). It's charging enroute, where the time will be substantially increased because of the decision to downgrade.

 

[islandbayy]

I think you missed his point. With reduced charging, random KOAs are fine. (Well there are additional problems, but that's best left for another thread.)

I've taken my Roadster on more than a few roadtrips with no 70amp options (max a Roadster can charge) - which means I've used plenty of 40amp options during the day, not just for overnight. And it's painfully long.

The issue isn't so much overnight (though it is for those of us that want to charge during lowest TOU rates). It's charging enroute, where the time will be substantially increased because of the decision to downgrade.

I agree, I got my Model S with just the single charger. After my first LONG distance road trip (Milwaukee to Niagara Falls), I immediately made a appointment to have the second charger installed upon returning home. Having the dual charger would have completely changed the outcome of the trip. Basically wasted a whole day charging, where as we could have been out enjoying ourselves. And so far, the Dual Charger has come in handy for every singe long distance trip I've taken since. West Coast road trip, I would have needed to stay at Creator lake another night to get enough to make it to the closest supercharger. Instead, I was able to juice up at Oregon Tech U for a hour, then plug into a 120v 30 amp outlet for 30 amp charging while we were running our trains at Train Mountain. South Carolina..... Charleston..... A 70 amp HPWC downtown at a hotel, saved another day, as I got to charge while on a carriage ride with my boys.
Oh, west coast road trip... Stopped at a hotel while having breakfast to get enough power on the 80 amp HPWC in between rapid city and I think it was Billings??? (Would need to look it up) as no Supercharger existed yet.

I would say 80 amp charging is worth it. If you don't road trip at all or ever, 40 amp would be fine, but venture away from home, the higher speed charging is indispensable.

 

[Lump]

My personal theory right now is that Eds was working for the original seat manufacturer and probably learned around that time that Tesla was bringing seat production in house. His internal position probably would have been : "that's nuts what you are doing, just give us a few more weeks to fix our problems, getting a new seat production on line in house will set you back till at least the end of the year!" Ultimately Tesla must have made that decision anyway and at that point Eds knew based on the facts 1) they would delay until the end of the year 2) they would be able to produce at most a few hundreds cars if they started hand assembly as much as possible. His claim about why Tesla would want to keep this secret was stock price related, was speculation. I give him 8/10 for accuracy but hindsight is not even 20/20.

Ed's first post on TMC was on July 17 #1 so I am guessing the decesion to bring 2nd row seats in house was made in late June, Elon is likely being very optimistic again with his Late December delivery projections.

 

[simplejack]

@AnxietyR... First, its is certainly ok to have a differing opinion. However, I suggest one just looks at the Model X Forum. There are (on page ONE) nearly 90 Threads and discussions. Each with their own questions. Yes an answer will lead to more speculation. Take the Launch for example, everyone didn't get to sit in and measure or drive Elon's Founders car that was on stage for 4+ hours. Pictures were taken, rides were provided, press had their reviews and analysis. Elon sent tweets on a couple of items.... yet here were are, with 90 Threads discussing what we, individually and collectively, want to know. IMHO, if the Model X were to Osborne Model S, sales... it would already occur. The Model X is known to have more features than the Model S (at the present time).

I can't, nor will I try to predict the effect on Model S... what every will be, the market will determine as Model X's are on the road and in the Design Centers around the country. That said, I still think there is no up-side for Tesla trying to appease these forums insatiable appetite.

It's quite simple - I am buying a car in 2-3 months. I have had a reservation for an X for 2 years. I want to buy an X. I do not know nearly enough about the X to buy it at this point. If they don't start answering some questions my $100k contribution to their revenue will be gone.

 

[Bet TSLA]

If they don't start answering some questions my $100k contribution to their revenue will be gone.

That would be true if they were demand constrained. As it is, your $100K will be replaced with somebody else's $100K. That won't make any difference to Tesla. And at some point when their cars are more available, likely you'll buy one (for the same reasons you want to buy one now). In fact it's actually better for Tesla that things go this way because they want current buyers to be patient and understanding, not those scared off by every bump in the road.

 

[FlatSix911]

I think you missed his point. With reduced charging, random KOAs are fine. (Well there are additional problems, but that's best left for another thread.) I've taken my Roadster on more than a few roadtrips with no 70amp options (max a Roadster can charge) - which means I've used plenty of 40amp options during the day, not just for overnight. And it's painfully long. The issue isn't so much overnight (though it is for those of us that want to charge during lowest TOU rates). It's charging enroute, where the time will be substantially increased because of the decision to downgrade.

With the introduction of 100+ additional superchargers in 2016 this will be a moot point for long range travel.

 

[ohmman]

That would be true if they were demand constrained. As it is, your $100K will be replaced with somebody else's $100K. That won't make any difference to Tesla. And at some point when their cars are more available, likely you'll buy one (for the same reasons you want to buy one now). In fact it's actually better for Tesla that things go this way because they want current buyers to be patient and understanding, not those scared off by every bump in the road.

Actually, it's true regardless. simplejack's contribution to their revenue will be gone. Losing any revenue should be disconcerting, if it's avoidable.

I read your other argument as "supply constrained companies have an advantage because they only need to deal with the easy customers." I have to disagree with this, if I'm reading it correctly. I've worked with a number of companies where revenue was very easy in the early lifecycle, and it encouraged sloppiness in the business. When things got tight, the companies didn't know how to operate efficiently and it was a bad scene. I don't want this for Tesla - they'd do well to learn while the revenue is easy, so when competition becomes real (and it will), they're prepared.

 

[hobbes]

With the introduction of 100+ additional superchargers in 2016 this will be a moot point for long range travel.

Is the 100+ new SCs your guesstimate or did I miss something?

 

[FlatSix911]

Is the 100+ new SCs your guesstimate or did I miss something?

Check the interactive map with 545 Supercharger stations with 3,103 Superchargers today: http://www.teslamotors.com/supercharger

http://www.teslamotors.com/findus/list/superchargers/United+States

 

[Beryl]

Check the interactive map with 545 Supercharger stations with 3,103 Superchargers today: http://www.teslamotors.com/supercharger

http://www.teslamotors.com/findus/list/superchargers/United+States

I wish I could be as optimistic. There are not enough SC planned anywhere except the coasts. We are nearing YE2015 and they haven't nearly completed the planned stations so I'm not expecting most of the SCs in the 2016 map to materialize next year.

Additionally, I wouldn't feel safe traveling long distances in the middle of the country with the Model X until Tesla lifts the 42A charging limitation.