Model X Signature begins delivery in early 2015

[Joel]

How will they ever build ~200,000 cars a year on one line? How can they tool up for Model X and not shut down Model S production?

The NUMMI plant manufactured 6,000 cars a week as recently as 2010. NUMMI - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Tesla is most likely tooling up now and in early January for the AWD Model S, which will prepare them for AWD Model X (same power train). The Tesla Factory will exit 2014 manufacturing approximately 1,200 to 1,500 Model S/Model X per week.

 

[AnOutsider]

The NUMMI plant manufactured 6,000 cars a week as recently as 2010. NUMMI - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

On ONE line though?

 

[ZBB]

On ONE line though?

Why not? I haven't been on a factory tour, but I did watch the NatGeo (? Perhaps a different channel...) episode and I worked for a summer at a BMW plant (although over 20 years ago).

Modern lines are virtual lines, not physical. The unibody sits on a robot that moves from station to station. Assembly happens at each station... Since the X and S sit on the same platform, all the hard points will be identical. Installation of things like the dash will be 95% the same -- only bolt locations will differ (and both robots and humans can handle those subtle differences). The biggest difference will be installing the rear doors, no sunroof for the X, etc. They may have to set up a couple model-specific stations to handle those...

When I worked at BMW, I built 6-cylinder engines on a physical line. The next line over was for the V8 -- and was a virtual line. It took less than half the space to build a more complex engine. I wouldn't be surprised if BMW now builds both engines on the same virtual line and just trains the assemblers on the differences. Even when I worked on the I-6, I could visually identify the variants -- there were subtle differences for ones that went in the 3 series from those that went in the 5 series, and they took different parts (different length dipstick for example)... In fact my visual ID was faster than waiting for the monitor to tell me -- so I just used the monitor as a verification step at the end...

 

[Joel]

On ONE line though?

Yes. There will be one line per platform (Model S / Model X). Tesla will add another line when the Gen III platform is available. It is common to have multiple cars on the same line (assuming they are close enough in build). This is one of the many reasons GM built the Volt from the Chevy Cruise platform and Nissan Leaf is developed from the Versa.

The Volt is on the same line as the Impala and Cruise (and forthcoming Cadillac ELR):

Watch at the 1:10 mark Tour Chevrolet Volt Now Also Producing The 2014 Impala And ELR (video)

 

[DrDave]

I bet they're adding another assembly line to reach the projected 1200-1500 Model S/X per week by end of 2014.

 

[ecarfan]

I saw the Model S line during my factory tour a week ago. It's pretty modest in size. The plant is huge, mostly unused. I think a Tesla will likely set up a new line for the X.

 

[AnOutsider]

Why not? I haven't been on a factory tour, but I did watch the NatGeo (? Perhaps a different channel...) episode and I worked for a summer at a BMW plant (although over 20 years ago).

Modern lines are virtual lines, not physical. The unibody sits on a robot that moves from station to station. Assembly happens at each station... Since the X and S sit on the same platform, all the hard points will be identical. Installation of things like the dash will be 95% the same -- only bolt locations will differ (and both robots and humans can handle those subtle differences). The biggest difference will be installing the rear doors, no sunroof for the X, etc. They may have to set up a couple model-specific stations to handle those...

When I worked at BMW, I built 6-cylinder engines on a physical line. The next line over was for the V8 -- and was a virtual line. It took less than half the space to build a more complex engine. I wouldn't be surprised if BMW now builds both engines on the same virtual line and just trains the assemblers on the differences. Even when I worked on the I-6, I could visually identify the variants -- there were subtle differences for ones that went in the 3 series from those that went in the 5 series, and they took different parts (different length dipstick for example)... In fact my visual ID was faster than waiting for the monitor to tell me -- so I just used the monitor as a verification step at the end...

Perhaps, and I'm certainly no expert, but what I saw back in oct of 11 (I think?) didn't look like it was set up to handle the volume. There was a ton of unused space.

I expect them to use some of the same equipment but to also expand out into the space

 

[de704]

I have seen newer assembly lines that were able to make multiple different models of cars. The robot just follows different instructions for what ever car is coming down the line. Doing it that way would be cheaper but probably more complex for the robot programmers. And we all know that Tesla's robots can do more that one thing. So that would, In my opinion, be the best most cost effective approach to take.

 

[ecarfan]

During the factory tour I did not see a lot robots on the final assembly line. The robots were in adjacent area doing welding and body panel assembly. The line started with a finished body that did not have doors, hood, or hatch, and of course no glass. There were some robots on the line that added the windshield (I've seen that in online videos) and I suppose the roof (didn't see that part of the line).

 

[Discoducky]

I anticipate that the Sig X's will be built on the same line as the S's. The robots can do multiple tasks at the same station without tolerance issues, throughput of a single line is not anywhere near capacity with a continuous supply of raw materials, it is easy enough to put an X in the mix and pull it out without disrupting S production and you'd want to ensure that your production robots can do it before qualifying new ones to minimize variables. And then I would expect TM to stand up another line in Fremont to do ramp and in anticipation of increased needs for GenIII. This would be ideal given constraints on cost/capital, but there might be other mitigating factors which would cause TM to deviate like getting robots at a discount or having so much room at NUMMI that it might make the production lines even more agile/flexible or maybe even able to accommodate a surge in S demand worldwide.

 

[bonnie]

And then I would expect TM to stand up another line in Fremont to do ramp and in anticipation of increased needs for GenIII. This would be ideal given constraints on cost/capital, but there might be other mitigating factors which would cause TM to deviate like getting robots at a discount or having so much room at NUMMI that it might make the production lines even more agile/flexible or maybe even able to accommodate a surge in S demand worldwide.

I'd expect that IF Tesla did that, it would be quickly followed by opening a new factory right next to the gigafactory, perhaps somewhere in the middle of the US, for production of the GenIII vehicle. Somewhere where there is high unemployment, central to transportation around the country, low taxes (or some other incentives), somewhat unaffected by weather ... having more than one location is smart business. You never want a single point of failure.

 

[Discoducky]

The title of this thread is a bit misleading

 

[AnOutsider]

View attachment 39963
The title of this thread is a bit misleading

It may still prove to be true. As Nigel pointed out, much can change between now and then

 

[Discoducky]

It may still prove to be true. As Nigel pointed out, much can change between now and then

But right now, according to the X reservation page, it is not true. Title of the thread should be changed to remove the word "signature". I'm surprised Bonnie hasn't chimed in as this thread might encourage TM to delay the delivery of her Sig X!!! JK'ing of course.

 

[bonnie]

I'm holding out for a Founder's X.

 

[AnOutsider]

I'm holding out for a Founder's X.

Does your ambition know no bounds?

 

[Reykjavik]

Model X isn't going to be produced at that volume. I think they are aiming for something closer to 15,000 - 20,000 units per year, similar to the model S.

The model E is going to be a different platform, and probably on a separate line, but that is a couple years out still.

 

[NigelM]

View attachment 39963
The title of this thread is a bit misleading

You're underestimating Tesla's inability to meet such self-imposed deadlines. ;-)


P.S. I'm willing to bet that I don't get my X this calendar year.

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

Looking forward to a beta reveal event at the factory this spring or early summer atleast for Signatures and wannabe-Founders, on the lines of the October 2011 event for the MS. And, maybe, Get Amped-style test drive events later in the year.

If these pan out, Bonnie, Marcus, Nigel, would you please keep yours truly in mind to be a +1?! TIA

 

[AnOutsider]

If these pan out, Bonnie, Marcus, Nigel, would you please keep yours truly in mind to be a +1?! TIA

If we all make you a +1 does that boost your level to +3?