Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production

[CRIMSON_DATE]

However, it's entirely unlikely Tesla is going to stick to the hyped script of a larger battery pack than in the current MY.
First, 4680 batteries are not in production outside Kato Road, so supply is limited.
Second, with a 9 month order backlog, there's no financial benefit to Tesla in giving away batteries.
Third, there's no market competition, and won't be for 12-18 months.

It is not going to be a larget battery pack but it looks like it will be able to get more power out of the same size pack.
The article below sums it up on the differences

While going up in size rather than down in size with each cell seems counter to design desires in a battery cell, the improvements made in the power capacity and control of heat generation of the 4680 over both the 18650 and the 2170 resulted in basically fewer cells with more power per pack in the same size pack as used with earlier Tesla models powered with the 18650 and 2170 cells.

To put this in a numerical perspective, that means only about 960 “4680” cells are needed to fill the same space as the 4,416 “2170” cells in the same amount of space, but with added benefits such as a lower cost per kWh production and a significant increase in power using the 4680 cell pack.

As reported earlier about a comparison to the 2170 cell, the 4680 is expected to provide five times more energy storage with 6 times more power resulting in an increase from 82 kWh to 95 kWh in the newer Tesla’s, translating into an expected increase in road range of up to 16 percent.

So even with getting 16% more range the pack itself is about 30% cheaper to produce so they are not giving anything away.
They may have enough cells from Fremont stacked up to start production as the Austin battery production ramps up. So I still think these will be put in model Y's as soon as they have enough. Tesla makes more money from a Car with a 4680 then one with a 2170

 

[tangible1]

It is not going to be a larget battery pack but it looks like it will be able to get more power out of the same size pack.
The article below sums it up on the differences



So even with getting 16% more range the pack itself is about 30% cheaper to produce so they are not giving anything away.
They may have enough cells from Fremont stacked up to start production as the Austin battery production ramps up. So I still think these will be put in model Y's as soon as they have enough. Tesla makes more money from a Car with a 4680 then one with a 2170

Again, unlikely to go that route. The article is just Media 'what-if' speculation.
Fun to speculate but it's not from Tesla, and they do not discourage Media hyperbole.

Unless there's a structural reason for using a certain number of 4680 cells, the kWh rating is more likely to remain similar to current ratings.

 

[Mrbrock]

Again, unlikely to go that route. The article is just Media 'what-if' speculation.
Fun to speculate but it's not from Tesla, and they do not discourage Media hyperbole.

Unless there's a structural reason for using a certain number of 4680 cells, the kWh rating is more likely to remain similar to current ratings.

Or smaller while maintaining the same range due to decreased weight

 

[TJ21CT]

I have a buddy that works in Austin. I’m reluctant to write what he has said but anything stated in previous posts are all wishful thinking. Battery and production wise, Cali will remain on top for now. Sorry to shatter any dreams.

 

[pcmike]

I have a buddy that works in Austin. I’m reluctant to write what he has said but anything stated in previous posts are all wishful thinking. Battery and production wise, Cali will remain on top for now. Sorry to shatter any dreams.

Everyone’s got that “buddy;” this is an internet message board. Unless your buddy is at the highest levels at Tesla, he doesn’t have much more insight then people here.

 

[TJ21CT]

Everyone’s got that “buddy;” this is an internet message board. Unless your buddy is at the highest levels at Tesla, he doesn’t have much more insight then people here.

I could post current production numbers and projected weekly production numbers. Production use of materials and the tracking of those as well. If you have any manufacturing background you should know his position. I just get tired of reading all the fluff and thought I would post something to help out. Almost sorry I did now. So much negativity on here.

 

[Fctryseald]

I could post current production numbers and projected weekly production numbers. Production use of materials and the tracking of those as well. If you have any manufacturing background you should know his position. I just get tired of reading all the fluff and thought I would post something to help out. Almost sorry I did now. So much negativity on here.

There is alot of negativity on here from haters that have no idea what might actually take place.

Can you give us any idea of how Model Y vehicles out of Austin might differ from current Model Y's out of Fremont?

 

[pcmike]

I could post current production numbers and projected weekly production numbers. Production use of materials and the tracking of those as well. If you have any manufacturing background you should know his position. I just get tired of reading all the fluff and thought I would post something to help out. Almost sorry I did now. So much negativity on here.

I got you and apologize if you thought I was being negative… I’m not, I’m actually super excited at what seems to be developing and take everything with a grain of salt until we get actual forum member first hand confirmation (ie. actual deliveries). Definitely would be nice for you to contribute info as you hear things. Definitely keep your buddy’s interests in mind though, a job like his could easily lead to slipping you something too detailed and it would be pretty easy to narrow down where it came from.

 

[Ron J.]

One thing to consider when discussing that often quoted 16% increase in capacity: this number was from back at Tesla Battery Day in Sept. 2020 when the MY battery pack only had 77.8 KWH capacity. The MY's battery pack was already increased to 82.1 KWH in 2021. So if we use the earlier value and believe the 16% increased capacity for the 4680 based structural battery pack was accurate, then the capacity would be 90 KWH. Still a nice increase from the current MY's capacity. This increased battery capacity (assuming it happens) along with the weight reduction may add perhaps 50 miles to the EPA range of the MY.

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

I could post current production numbers and projected weekly production numbers.

Please.... Last we heard nothing was being produced at austin so if you have production numbers for austin that would be news...

 

[TJ21CT]

I really don’t want to jeopardize anything down the line. But like I said the majority of things said about Austin on here are wishful thinking-currently. You can read through any thread to know what those items are, mainly new improvements. You have to realize this is a major production line and while testing is involved it just doesn’t mean they are going to ramp production to any certain amount of vehicles a day or week. Anyone in the manufacturing business knows this.

 

[Budshark]

I really don’t want to jeopardize anything down the line. But like I said the majority of things said about Austin on here are wishful thinking-currently. You can read through any thread to know what those items are, mainly new improvements. You have to realize this is a major production line and while testing is involved it just doesn’t mean they are going to ramp production to any certain amount of vehicles a day or week. Anyone in the manufacturing business knows this.

I’m screaming from the rooftop that the vloggers and bloggers are too optimistic and trying to get clicks.

But I also acknowledge it’s based off my outside manufacturing knowledge and guesses based on pictures and what I consider normal ramp up.

If you come on here and say you have insider knowledge but then say I can’t / won’t tell you and you are all just wrong trust me… that won’t end welll. Either keep the “inside knowledge” stuff to yourself and either don’t post or just say my opinion, or you need to back up the “inside source” with something tangible.

Just my observation. You do you.

 

[Daniel L]

They may be able to push out more power from the 4680s as well as there is a shorter path for the power to travel with the tabless design.

 

[TJ21CT]

Common sense goes a long way in basic manufacturing and speculation goes even further in online forums. After reading through thread after thread I thought I would post some sort of insight. I didn’t state anyone was wrong just wishful thinking for the current state of the process. Has anyone compared other factory production timelines, when they came online and how they approached current production? These are real world numbers that could be used to cross reference a timeline for Austin if everyone is so concerned about it. If you have been through the Tesla process then you should know the process. This ain’t rocket science, you have to drive further south for that.

 

[GOVA]

Common sense goes a long way in basic manufacturing and speculation goes even further in online forums. After reading through thread after thread I thought I would post some sort of insight. I didn’t state anyone was wrong just wishful thinking for the current state of the process. Has anyone compared other factory production timelines, when they came online and how they approached current production? These are real world numbers that could be used to cross reference a timeline for Austin if everyone is so concerned about it. If you have been through the Tesla process then you should know the process. This ain’t rocket science, you have to drive further south for that.

point being?

 

[Ron J.]

I really don’t want to jeopardize anything down the line. But like I said the majority of things said about Austin on here are wishful thinking-currently. You can read through any thread to know what those items are, mainly new improvements. You have to realize this is a major production line and while testing is involved it just doesn’t mean they are going to ramp production to any certain amount of vehicles a day or week. Anyone in the manufacturing business knows this.

The Austin built MYs will surely account for a very small percent of MY's delivered over the next few months. Production may be ramped up enough by mid-year that a significant percent of MY deliveries to the Eastern US will be from Austin (but many also from Fremont) Joe Tegtmyer discussed the projected ramp up in production of the Austin factory based on what happened at the China gigafactory when it started production. See Joes's Youtube video from Dec. 12th below:

 

[cusetownusa]

One thing to consider when discussing that often quoted 16% increase in capacity: this number was from back at Tesla Battery Day in Sept. 2020 when the MY battery pack only had 77.8 KWH capacity. The MY's battery pack was already increased to 82.1 KWH in 2021. So if we use the earlier value and believe the 16% increased capacity for the 4680 based structural battery pack was accurate, then the capacity would be 90 KWH. Still a nice increase from the current MY's capacity. This increased battery capacity (assuming it happens) along with the weight reduction may add perhaps 50 miles to the EPA range of the MY.

You think they will be producing Model Ys out of Austin with 380 mile range and out of Fremont with 330 mile range? I don't see that happening unless they create a new LR+ tier and charge more. Its more likely they will use however many 4680 cells are needed to get the same 330 mile range. The only potential noticeable difference between an Austin Y and a Fremont Y would be slightly better handling due to weighing less. All my opinion obviously. Why give away extra batteries when they are in such tight supply?

 

[solodogg]

point being?

Point being that whether or not he has any actual insider information, no mass vehicle production has ever ramped up to full speed during the first week. There are exactly zero Austin VIN numbers in the wild right now, and until you see the first one confirmed there will be no proof that customer deliveries are occurring. Even then, production numbers are going to be a fraction of what Fremont is spitting out, and not likely to be a source of mass deliveries until later this year at the earliest.

 

[GOVA]

Point being that whether or not he has any actual insider information, no mass vehicle production has ever ramped up to full speed during the first week. There are exactly zero Austin VIN numbers in the wild right now, and until you see the first one confirmed there will be no proof that customer deliveries are occurring. Even then, production numbers are going to be a fraction of what Fremont is spitting out, and not likely to be a source of mass deliveries until later this year at the earliest.

Very helpful. Thank you.

 

[TJ21CT]

Point being that whether or not he has any actual insider information, no mass vehicle production has ever ramped up to full speed during the first week. There are exactly zero Austin VIN numbers in the wild right now, and until you see the first one confirmed there will be no proof that customer deliveries are occurring. Even then, production numbers are going to be a fraction of what Fremont is spitting out, and not likely to be a source of mass deliveries until later this year at the earliest.

This guy gets it.