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Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production
- Thread starter Ron J.
- Start date
Triplem086
Member
The changeover will generally be kinda interesting. More interesting than the drone flight updates on the solar cells on the roof.
But...The vast majority of buyers don’t care what battery they get... it prob won’t be that tricky. Hell, if gas does up another $1 I’ll be begging for a d-cell version myself.
The other option is they do a hard cutover to a new model designation (Performance+ or whatever). Thus anyone with orders right now will get the 2170. I don't think that's very likely though.
In China, the change over to new chemistry was a running change, with the newer chemistry just appearing when they became available in required volumes .
Probably happen that way in Texas as well. At a certain point, probably determined by availability and costs, the new cell packs will be integrated into the assembly line. Could even happen in the middle of a day.
Tesla has language in their order forms that they incorporate a policy of continous improvement. Not sure that customers will be able to pick and choose which battery configurations go into their individual cars.
Same thing probably will happen with the integration of the newer pixel headlights. They will just start showing up at delivery centers.
This is the Tesla way...
Probably happen that way in Texas as well. At a certain point, probably determined by availability and costs, the new cell packs will be integrated into the assembly line. Could even happen in the middle of a day.
Tesla has language in their order forms that they incorporate a policy of continous improvement. Not sure that customers will be able to pick and choose which battery configurations go into their individual cars.
Same thing probably will happen with the integration of the newer pixel headlights. They will just start showing up at delivery centers.
This is the Tesla way...
My speculation WRT 4680 is that the only difference will be weight so the car may handle only slightly different (maybe 500 lbs). The capacity will stay the same and Tesla will likely limit power output to match the current MYP. If they add more capacity or increase performance nobody will want a Fremont built MY. They could sell a ludicrous acceleration boost at some point to bump power output to take full advantage of the 4680 on an MYP though. Again pure speculation here.
BGOwner
Active Member
Why do you think that? Was an article about how they would ship the car to OK, then once Tesla was paid, they would ship it back to Texas for delivery. Today, you have to pay for it before it enters Texas, only difference is, instead of coming from Fremont, it will go out of state and back in. Not sure which would be cheaper for them.
That said, not 100% it still won't come from Fremont
Triplem086
Member
I think its funny how people are so confident with their "guesses". Just 3 months ago people were saying 4680 will DEFINITELY not be available until next year, but those people are quiet now. Truth is 99% of us don't know when the first Austin Y will be delivered, how many 4680 cells will go in, what the range will be, etc. Its okay to speculate, but stop talking like they are facts. I guess its easy to be confident online when there are no consequences for being wrong.
shipping from texas to oklahoma and back is still cheaper than shipping from fremont to texas.
This purchasing process is the same as what they follow for michigan buyers. Tesla already has a well established process on how to handle this.
Welll.. that depends..
They would need to have a dedicated fenced and guarded site to drop off hundreds of MY's for texas delivery and then have trucks standing by to drop them off to the SA's or the users once paid. Sounds like a much more expensive way of doing things .
Now if they are having them paid for then the trucks are shipped across state lines and driven back without being stored it would make sense from a cost perspective.
I don't think Texas if going to see any 4680's until the factory is fully ramped and they can searve the rest of the 2/3 first or the legislation changes. I think tesla is more likely to persue legislation when they are back in session. rather then setup a delivery infrastructure that won't be needed. in the mean time it will be fremont deliveries
BGOwner
Active Member
Correct and 3 months ago was last year.
I guess I wasn't clear enough. Tesla already follows this process for Michigan because Tesla is still not allowed to sell here just like Texas. Tesla has even laid out the sales and delivery process for Texas quite a while ago publicly. Texas will not get Fremont Y's once its capacity is high enough. My guess is Texas legislation will change the laws to allow sales in Texas within the next year anyways.
Michigan purchase and delivery process:
Car is built -> shipped on rail to Chicago -> shipped by truck to Cleveland dealership -> vehicle is held until full payment by buyer (there is a time limit) -> tesla arranges and ships batches of cars on a weekly or bi-weekly basis to nearest service center to buyer -> service center performs home delivery or customer picks up vehicle
The Texas process will be way more simple because a couple of steps are removed.
Giga Berlin is March 22 for first deliveries. So that confirms what’s been stated for a while:
- Tesla won’t wait until next quarter due to financial statements (forgot who said it but we now have proof that doesn’t drive dates)
- Tesla will announce the deliveries (they have for Shanghai and Berlin). No reason to think Austin will suddenly be different. So this idea of a surprise Austin VIN is dead.
Timing still holds - late March would be target. Might (but unlikely) to slip.
As far as the 4680 swaps and speculation have fun. Just remember this is all for Tesla’s benefit. Elon has stated he doesn’t think they need more range. No one really competes on performance. They have a backlog of orders that is likely to be growing now. In other words they don’t want to shut down Fremont, and they don’t have any reason to make a “better” MY. So draw your own conclusions but the non emotional response is very clear and the evidence keeps piling up.
- Tesla won’t wait until next quarter due to financial statements (forgot who said it but we now have proof that doesn’t drive dates)
- Tesla will announce the deliveries (they have for Shanghai and Berlin). No reason to think Austin will suddenly be different. So this idea of a surprise Austin VIN is dead.
Timing still holds - late March would be target. Might (but unlikely) to slip.
As far as the 4680 swaps and speculation have fun. Just remember this is all for Tesla’s benefit. Elon has stated he doesn’t think they need more range. No one really competes on performance. They have a backlog of orders that is likely to be growing now. In other words they don’t want to shut down Fremont, and they don’t have any reason to make a “better” MY. So draw your own conclusions but the non emotional response is very clear and the evidence keeps piling up.
and it is unclear that it was actually “white.” may have been a primer coat that later became yet another black or blue car.
All spot on. “Non emotional response” heh heh. It is odd how wound up people get over some of this.
Also...Only interesting thing that is come up lately to add grist to the speculation of how they will deal with Fremont still making the old version is the recent reputed insider stuff on the Berlin plan, which is that it will start with the current Fremont/Shanghai build and then transition to 4680 later in the year after taking a “three-week break” to re-tool. Fremont will have to do that at some point, and if it does take three weeks that seems to indicate Tesla would want to hold off on that until Austin is at least producing middling volume.
BillyG2022MYP
Member
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