Here is a theory about the 280 mile range MY AWD SR…
They are for Hertz’s new 100K rental fleet !?
Cheers,
They are for Hertz’s new 100K rental fleet !?
Cheers,
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production
- Thread starter Ron J.
- Start date
BGOwner
Active Member
Not a bad one. I had thought that when I heard they were getting MYLRs
Bottom line is Tesla makes more money per MY model using 4680 or LFP batteries, than they do buying 2170 batteries from Panasonic.
(and why has the Panasonic relationship been so ..... up and down?)
Batteries are their limiting profit factor. Not their limiting production factor. But 4680 isn't available in sufficient volume yet, and Elon has said this year is about profit.
So to maximize profit over their production capability, they need to spread the mix. Hence the MY AWD SR, using LFP's.
My guess is Austin will be doing the MY 4680 cars, and Fremont the MY LFP and 2170 cars, until later this year when 4680m is fully ramped.
Maybe so. An SA told me the same thing last week. That's one way for Hertz to get a little discount.
Maybe this is old news, but looks like there might be some white ones coming out now. See around 12:40 in this video.
there’s not a white one there. watch the first pass through at 2:27 or something. that’s not a MY.
There's a clear shot of a white one charging at 11:14. It has the same square white patch on the windshield showing the VIN as the other Austin one captured in the wild the other day on Twitter.
anybody's guess.
I think Tesla wants to start making revenue out of Austin asap, so whatever model has the most order volume will get built there first. That's MYLR.
Texas has tax advantages over Fremont, and the factory continues to cost $$$$. So far it's all money out, no money in, and 7 months behind schedule.
AUSTIN
It's generally thought that the Austin production line is set up for MY v2.0 chassis construction, meaning structural battery pack and F+R megacasts.
That says what comes out of Texas is 4680.
Tthere's no evidence yet of MYP out of Austin; everything has been MYLR (or maybe MY SR). But for sure no MYP - they put over 400 out for drone display; none are MYP.
It could be that MY SR are being made at Austin, but there's never been any Tesla discussion of LFP 'backup plan' packs like there was for 2170's.
And all the BiW (body in white) chassis we've seen outside or inside at Austin have been no-floorpan (ie, structural battery pack builds).
FREMONT
We know they're making MYP at Fremont and that's going to continue. Likely 2170-based for the near term. Again, 4680 constraints.
Personally, I would have thought Fremont and Austin would turn on v2.0 chassis at roughly the same time.
But I've seen no evidence despite almost daily drone videos, which show no movement of the Front magacast stacks on the lot (that's the key indicator).
SUMMARY
Texas makes all MYLR using 4680. Slow ramp-up.
Fremont makes MYP and MY SR, using 2170 and LFP respectively, and MYLR using 2170 until 4680 production catches up, then switches over.
That would be controversial. But remember, Tesla makes no promises regarding which battery they put in the car. It's not part of the order option list.
Yet Fremont is providing all the 4680 battery packs so far (packs only, not individual cells - shipping crates for them have been shown on early morning videos).
So you'd think if Texas gets them, Fremont would be also, since they're on-site and it's cheaper for Tesla to use them there than ship them to Austin.
But again, there's no evidence Fremont is switching to v2.0 chassis builds.
I'm also guessing most of what has been produced so far at Austin is MYLR, destined for Tesla Showroom use.
My guess is most of current production at Austin is MYLR destined for Tesla Showroom use.
Tesla announced that Berlin would be 2170 for the foreseeable future several months ago. I think around the last time the twitterverse thought Berlin would get Final Permits.
Note that China still makes MY with 2170 and LFP, and LFP has been shipping to Europe so far.
The battery facility at Berlin remains a skeleton under construction. It will take the rest of 2022 before it's running.
Munro Live has a video of a staff engineer's new, personal MYP from Fremont. Took delivery this week.
It has the Chinese door cards (wood trim on door panel).
Following your logic they make more money out of MYP and since there are fewer orders to fill with,4680 batteries in short supply perhaps the logic of lighter weight is more important for performance model. Also BMW and others are coming up fast in performance terms. No doubt wishful thinking on my part as I have an order in for MYP . If the worst comes to the worst I will burn my deposit and reorder when they are available.
GPU (Nvidia) demand has cratered due to Crypto Miners moving their Mining Server operations out of China into friendlier political jurisdictions.
They're not the principal shortage components.
The chips in shortage are basic controllers and assorted other types which are automotive-certified (ie high temp/milspec categories).
Mrbrock
Well-Known Member
He said order volume, not profit margin. 5,000 x 30,000 is less than 10,000 x 20,000. The difference between MYP Fremont and Austin is only shipping cost. Better to reduce shipping cost on a model with lower profit margin, increasing said profit margin. And decreasing wait times which could increase demand. If they make MYP in Texas and demand drops to 0, then they have to stop production until de,and builds again. Very inefficient.
Dont know why someone seems to think that all the production at Texas is LR MY when epa documents point other wise.
The Hertz MY is interesting because the 330 and 4.8 are correct, but the 75 kWh is not. Current LR MY is 82 total, 79+ usable. The 75kwh with 4680 nca/m would be believable based on reducing capacity to keep range and acceleration the same as current production.
Similar threads
