Model Y Not Worth the Price Now [Nov 2022]

[mstatkus]

Very much a personal journey (math). Lot of variables. It is inflated right now, with other things.
I eliminated 3 ICE cars that had maintenance, insurance and gas and even though I probably only drive 10K miles a year, I was able to save money annually. The ability for me to calculate depreciation harder, but my best bet was it would be less than if I bought another ICE.

Would I have wanted to have a $60K loan with with no equity to contribute with a down payment - probably not. That’s a wicked car payment + interest rates now. Most I ever spent on a car prior was $48K. That was a lease too, and I ended up just turning it in as I could not justify paying another $30K to continue it. I also took the deductions etc

 

[Eric9610]

Just a quick update. Received my dads Y Friday, quality out of Austin is perfect just like my Y from 2020. Really like the updated door panels and parcel shelf in the trunk.

I decided to place an order for a Rivian R1T as the replacement for the Y. Expected delivery is Dec of 23 since I selected dual motor. Here is an option that is only $9k more than the Y…

Also Rivian is building its own SC network currently with 350kw chargers.

 

[Yelobird]

Just a quick update. Received my dads Y Friday, quality out of Austin is perfect just like my Y from 2020. Really like the updated door panels and parcel shelf in the trunk.

I decided to place an order for a Rivian R1T as the replacement for the Y. Expected delivery is Dec of 23 since I selected dual motor. Here is an option that is only $9k more than the Y…

Also Rivian is building its own SC network currently with 350kw chargers.

Congrats. On the Rivian SC Network. I wouldn’t count on that speculation for a Long time if at all. At the crazy slow rate they are scaling production with still a heavy loss per vehicle I highly suspect a SC network was a nice theory but not well planned. I visit the plant monthly and it’s still a slow go show sadly.

 

[Yelobird]

Very much a personal journey (math). Lot of variables. It is inflated right now, with other things.
I eliminated 3 ICE cars that had maintenance, insurance and gas and even though I probably only drive 10K miles a year, I was able to save money annually. The ability for me to calculate depreciation harder, but my best bet was it would be less than if I bought another ICE.

Would I have wanted to have a $60K loan with with no equity to contribute with a down payment - probably not. That’s a wicked car payment + interest rates now. Most I ever spent on a car prior was $48K. That was a lease too, and I ended up just turning it in as I could not justify paying another $30K to continue it. I also took the deductions etc

Good insight and you highlight one area many pass over regarding depreciation. Yes the up front cost of Any Tesla or EV is well above normal but the value long term doesn’t become 0$ just because your done with it. The future resale of ICE cars is going to plummet as regulations force the transition. EV cars will have a Much lower depreciation value especially brands like Tesla that have continuous improvements to keep them relevant vs models that depreciate by the year they were built with limitations. Example, my wife’s fairly new Form Flex Limited Loaded was 68k new. If I could get 15k for it now with 45k miles I would be amazed. In a few years it will be worth 20$

 

[voxel]

Congrats. On the Rivian SC Network. I wouldn’t count on that speculation for a Long time if at all. At the crazy slow rate they are scaling production with still a heavy loss per vehicle I highly suspect a SC network was a nice theory but not well planned. I visit the plant monthly and it’s still a slow go show sadly.

Yeah if you follow Rivian at all... new chargers are supposed to be in underserved outdoorsy areas. Also.. Rivian was consulted in various NEVI plans so they will be bidding on charger installations and probably get funding for a bunch but it will be nothing like SCs on main routes.

My R1S has an ETA of July-Sept 2023 which is 6 months later than expected. Honestly not expecting it until beginning of 2024 at this point.

 

[MYinmyfuture]

55k is the new 70k.. I wasn’t the first to mention this in a thread however. Thank you to “tonedog” or “jcanoe” can’t remember which member mentioned this.

 

[2101Guy]

Bought my wife’s 2021 y LR before any price increases. And JUST before they added heated steering wheel, revised console, etc. No FSD.

Might sell it privately in a couple months and get a Y Performance for her. (She LOVES the Y. ) only concern is YP ride quality. Her LR with 20’s is just acceptable for ride quality. Can’t go harsher

 

[thesmokingman]

Bought my wife’s 2021 y LR before any price increases. And JUST before they added heated steering wheel, revised console, etc. No FSD.

Might sell it privately in a couple months and get a Y Performance for her. (She LOVES the Y. ) only concern is YP ride quality. Her LR with 20’s is just acceptable for ride quality. Can’t go harsher

MYP 22's have improved comfort suspension now from fremont/austin.

Model Y comfort suspension?

Did you guys see this story? https://driveteslacanada.ca/model-y/tesla-model-y-comfort-suspension-fremont-giga-texas/ I can't find any details anywhere about what changes were made. Anyone get told anything or notice anything with their recent pickups?

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[2101Guy]

MYP 22's have improved comfort suspension now from fremont/austin.

Model Y comfort suspension?

Did you guys see this story? https://driveteslacanada.ca/model-y/tesla-model-y-comfort-suspension-fremont-giga-texas/ I can't find any details anywhere about what changes were made. Anyone get told anything or notice anything with their recent pickups?

teslamotorsclub.com

Thanks. I saw a post somewhere that said it was only the long range that have the improved suspension comfort. But I guess that information was incorrect.

 

[thesmokingman]

Thanks. I saw a post somewhere that said it was only the long range that have the improved suspension comfort. But I guess that information was incorrect.

 

[tangible1]

EV demand isn't infinite. See the dozen ID.4s sitting at my VW dealer's lot and the same with Polestar (who have called me twice in the last week and sent multiple e-mails). As for tax credits... most EV makers think their cars will only be eligible for half (the battery component portion).

Also wait times for Ys are sub 3 months and for the 3 RWD it is 1-2 months. Back in late 2021 the wait times were 6-8 months.

Back in late 2020.. Tesla offered free 1 year supercharging I met numerous Y owners in 2021 with that freebie and I suspect Tesla would do something similar instead of dropping prices.

I agree demand isn't infinite but it is still well in excess of supply and will be for another 12-18 months.

the only MY's at 3 months are MYP's, which are a very low percentage of the order base.
M3-RWD is range challenged; people want all the range they can get. For the additional spend, the M3LR is a better deal.
ID.4 hasn't seen great demand; it's reviews aren't all that, and VW has issues.

Tax credits will find a way to get employed. Note as well EU demands to be included. That will get noticed in WDC.
That assessment could change if election results cause Biden's boys to significantly walk back their Green agenda (doubtful, as they're committed idiots).

I agree that Tesla North America will likely start with SC incentives. But they're not even close to that need here yet. China is very different.

 

[voxel]

I agree demand isn't infinite but it is still well in excess of supply and will be for another 12-18 months.

the only MY's at 3 months are MYP's, which are a very low percentage of the order base.
M3-RWD is range challenged; people want all the range they can get. For the additional spend, the M3LR is a better deal.
ID.4 hasn't seen great demand; it's reviews aren't all that, and VW has issues.

Tax credits will find a way to get employed. Note as well EU demands to be included. That will get noticed in WDC.
That assessment could change if election results cause Biden's boys to significantly walk back their Green agenda (doubtful, as they're committed idiots).

I agree that Tesla North America will likely start with SC incentives. But they're not even close to that need here yet. China is very different.

When I checked MYLR order times on Tesla site it said Dec-Mar so that’s 1-4 months.

Regardless, you could buy a barely used Y for under new MRSP almost anywhere in the US.

Somebody on Leasehckrs has been tracked 3 and Y auction prices and they look like this

 

[tangible1]

When I checked MYLR order times on Tesla site it said Dec-Mar so that’s 1-4 months.

Regardless, you could buy a barely used Y for under new MRSP almost anywhere in the US.

Somebody on Leasehckrs has been tracked 3 and Y auction prices and they look like this


View attachment 871883

lacks context
all nice but what volume of vehicles does it represent.
how many compared to the volume of new registrations.

 

[Yelobird]

When I checked MYLR order times on Tesla site it said Dec-Mar so that’s 1-4 months.

Regardless, you could buy a barely used Y for under new MRSP almost anywhere in the US.

Somebody on Leasehckrs has been tracked 3 and Y auction prices and they look like this


View attachment 871883

And we should be surprised by this? The other 90% of Tesla buyers that are Not on TMC are also aware of the federal incentives starting in 2023 waiting to pull the trigger. Watch that graph after first quarter next year. To many people are speculating on the end of interest. I suspect it’s other $$$ influences.

 

[Kokukenji]

And we should be surprised by this? The other 90% of Tesla buyers that are Not on TMC are also aware of the federal incentives starting in 2023 waiting to pull the trigger. Watch that graph after first quarter next year. To many people are speculating on the end of interest. I suspect it’s other $$$ influences.

This. Pretty sure folks are on the fence due to a lot of factor to which I don't think it represent lack of interest of the MY or Tesla cars as a whole. Money is expensive right now, potential savings if you wait it out, lots of uncertainty that is driving $ influences.

I agree that the graph after the 1st quarter next year will show a better picture. Also, I doubt that Tesla is going to knee jerk react and start slashing prices. If anything, gives them a bit of room to fulfill backordered units.

 

[brandon8387]

Lease another one

 

[Eric9610]

Just a quick update. Received my dads Y Friday, quality out of Austin is perfect just like my Y from 2020. Really like the updated door panels and parcel shelf in the trunk.

I decided to place an order for a Rivian R1T as the replacement for the Y. Expected delivery is Dec of 23 since I selected dual motor. Here is an option that is only $9k more than the Y…

Also Rivian is building its own SC network currently with 350kw

 

[Cherokee180c]

The battery mineral requirement also kicks in starting 2023 @ 40% and then increasing to 80% in 2027. However, there are additional conditions coming:

• Starting in 2024, a vehicle will be disqualified for both halves of the credit if it contains any battery components coming from a foreign entity of concern.
• Starting in 2025, a vehicle will be disqualified for both halves of the credit if it contains any critical minerals coming from a foreign entity of concern.

This is seriously not friendly at all to the current supply chain, there are surely at least some battery components still coming from China used in batteries that are manufactured or assembled domestically.

They wrote it that way on purpose to negate China’s huge advantage in this area and force suppliers to move their supply chain. This was my entire point though as those provisions don’t kick in until 2024 so for next year the 40% assembly in the US should cover Tesla to achieve the full $7500 rebate if I am reading all this correctly. At the end of the day the only thing that matters is what the Government publishes for qualification.

 

[AndrewZ]

They wrote it that way on purpose to negate China’s huge advantage in this area and force suppliers to move their supply chain. This was my entire point though as those provisions don’t kick in until 2024 so for next year the 40% assembly in the US should cover Tesla to achieve the full $7500 rebate if I am reading all this correctly. At the end of the day the only thing that matters is what the Government publishes for qualification.

I'm quite certain half of the credit still comes from the critical mineral value requirement starting at 40% in 2023, this is the exact chunk of text in the bill:

So between now and January 1, 2024, the critical mineral requirement will be 40% of the value and that will constitute half of the $7500 credit

 

[tangible1]

They wrote it that way on purpose to negate China’s huge advantage in this area and force suppliers to move their supply chain. This was my entire point though as those provisions don’t kick in until 2024 so for next year the 40% assembly in the US should cover Tesla to achieve the full $7500 rebate if I am reading all this correctly. At the end of the day the only thing that matters is what the Government publishes for qualification.

Congress is already looking to negate those barriers, and the EU is also looking to dodge them.
The political odds are good that they'll find a way to make most EV's qualified for the tax rebates.
Especially since buying votes is now a fixture of policy.