Model Y Not Worth the Price Now [Nov 2022]

[Cherokee180c]

When I checked MYLR order times on Tesla site it said Dec-Mar so that’s 1-4 months.

Regardless, you could buy a barely used Y for under new MRSP almost anywhere in the US.

Somebody on Leasehckrs has been tracked 3 and Y auction prices and they look like this

Explain to me again how most people with MYLR orders placed at the beginning of March will not even see their deliveries in November, but somehow you believe a December delivery forecast on the site for an order placed today? Were no orders placed in April, May, June, July, August, September or October? If so, why hasn’t Tesla panicked and launched multiple incentive programs? Come on, use some common sense. I was originally told the beginning of September, but they will be lucky to be 3 months late. Any MYLR place now has about 0% chance of delivery in the next 90 days IMHO. Place an order for an MYP if you want fast delivery times. Be careful, however, as the lack of demand on that model type tells you up front that most do not value the features added for the cost difference. I would be surprised if long term that model retains 50% of that upfront cost differential.

 

[Cherokee180c]

I'm quite certain half of the credit still comes from the critical mineral value requirement starting at 40% in 2023, this is the exact chunk of text in the bill:


So between now and January 1, 2024, the critical mineral requirement will be 40% of the value and that will constitute half of the $7500 credit

Extracted, or processed. Does processing Lithium by mixing with the exact ratio of nickel, cobalt and with additives to facilitate the dry battery process, depositing that on a thin film for wrapping into the jelly roll of the inner parts of the battery constitute processing? Of course it does. Again, we can debate this all day long, but the only thing that matters is the Government’s official determination. Again, IMHO it would be crazy to negate all US made batteries on day 1. Again, I wouldn’t put is past our current politicians to be that stupid, as they probably are. My best guess though, is they will make up the percentage the current processing level “counts” for to be exactly just over the level to qualify in 2023, but fail in 2024 or 2025 at the higher level requirement thereby making the manufactures source more and more supply from the US or US partners like Canada.

 

[Yelobird]

Just a quick update. Received my dads Y Friday, quality out of Austin is perfect just like my Y from 2020. Really like the updated door panels and parcel shelf in the trunk.

I decided to place an order for a Rivian R1T as the replacement for the Y. Expected delivery is Dec of 23 since I selected dual motor. Here is an option that is only $9k more than the Y…

Also Rivian is building its own SC network currently with 350kw chargers.

Just a quick update. Received my dads Y Friday, quality out of Austin is perfect just like my Y from 2020. Really like the updated door panels and parcel shelf in the trunk.

I decided to place an order for a Rivian R1T as the replacement for the Y. Expected delivery is Dec of 23 since I selected dual motor. Here is an option that is only $9k more than the Y…

Also Rivian is building its own SC network currently with 350kw

Any update yet?

 

[Kokukenji]

Explain to me again how most people with MYLR orders placed at the beginning of March will not even see their deliveries in November, but somehow you believe a December delivery forecast on the site for an order placed today? Were no orders placed in April, May, June, July, August, September or October? If so, why hasn’t Tesla panicked and launched multiple incentive programs? Come on, use some common sense. I was originally told the beginning of September, but they will be lucky to be 3 months late. Any MYLR place now has about 0% chance of delivery in the next 90 days IMHO. Place an order for an MYP if you want fast delivery times. Be careful, however, as the lack of demand on that model type tells you up front that most do not value the features added for the cost difference. I would be surprised if long term that model retains 50% of that upfront cost differential.

I think you're giving Tesla EDD a bit more credit than it deserves. It's random, like, really random, lol. I see people posting here in the forum that got their car within 2 weeks of delivery and they placed the order in Oct while I see people in the March-Sept still waiting on theirs. Pretty sure there are a lot of factors but FIFO is definitely not one of them.

So technically the EDD of Nov can be right since random, is random, lol. I want to see the behind the scene of Tesla fulfillment by the folks that manage/program it. Maybe there's a method to the madness.

 

[voxel]

Explain to me again how most people with MYLR orders placed at the beginning of March will not even see their deliveries in November, but somehow you believe a December delivery forecast on the site for an order placed today? Were no orders placed in April, May, June, July, August, September or October? If so, why hasn’t Tesla panicked and launched multiple incentive programs? Come on, use some common sense. I was originally told the beginning of September, but they will be lucky to be 3 months late. Any MRLR place now has about 0% chance of delivery in the next 90 days IMHO. Place an order for an MYP if you want fast delivery times. Be careful, however, as the lack of demand on that model type tells you up front that most do not value the features added for the cost difference. I would be surprised if long term that model retains 50% of that upfront cost differential.

Tesla deliveries are all over the place. I had one Y order take 14 months and another 6 months. They were ordered weeks apart.

Tesla as you can see with MYP deliveries prioritizes $$$$ (higher profit trims) and seem to schedule/deliver a mix of old and new orders.

Anyhow... there's no debating used Y prices on auction (MMR) and retail. They are tumbling. There seems to be a floor around $59K in Florida where they hit that price and are finally sold (which aligns with the current MMR values). Of course they all were priced over $73K a few months ago

 

[Kokukenji]

Tesla deliveries are all over the place. I had one Y order take 14 months and another 6 months. They were ordered weeks apart.

Tesla as you can see with MYP deliveries prioritizes $$$$ (higher profit trims) and seem to schedule/deliver a mix of old and new orders.

Anyhow... there's no debating used Y prices on auction (MMR) and retail. They are tumbling. There seems to be a floor around $59K in Florida where they hit that price and are finally sold (which aligns with the current MMR values). Of course they all were priced over $73K a few months ago

Yah, you might be closer to the formula of the randomness. Feeling like there's 2 pools, existing and new orders. The fulfillment will be grabbing from each pool about equal so that they can claim they are working on existing fulfilment and also providing "faster" delivery on new orders without straight lying on EDD.

The good news is that if you have the need for a MY, it's good to gamble now compared to a couple months back. Got choices from brand new, existing inventory, used inventory, etc.

 

[Cherokee180c]

Tesla deliveries are all over the place. I had one Y order take 14 months and another 6 months. They were ordered weeks apart.

Tesla as you can see with MYP deliveries prioritizes $$$$ (higher profit trims) and seem to schedule/deliver a mix of old and new orders.

Anyhow... there's no debating used Y prices on auction (MMR) and retail. They are tumbling. There seems to be a floor around $59K in Florida where they hit that price and are finally sold (which aligns with the current MMR values). Of course they all were priced over $73K a few months ago

Makes sense as most of us only paid $58K - $59K in March or earlier.

 

[Kokukenji]

Makes sense as most of us only paid $58K - $59K in March or earlier.

I just saw your signature regarding your everchanging EDD. If this doesn't show proof on the randomness of it all, I don't know what will, lol.

 

[tangible1]

I just saw your signature regarding your everchanging EDD. If this doesn't show proof on the randomness of it all, I don't know what will, lol.

my EDD changed almost every week for 7 months. Deliveries from Tesla are a random walk.
Anyone claiming good predictive knowledge is only kidding themselves.

 

[kelpcar]

My R1S has an ETA of July-Sept 2023 which is 6 months later than expected. Honestly not expecting it until beginning of 2024 at this point.

forgive me if I asked before - when did you put in your order? Mine from early Feb finally has a delivery date of "2024." Given people often citing 2023 for what seem like current orders, that's mildly surprising, even if they order the truck instead of the SUV. I'm not sure I want to pay for the green interior, having not seen it, and certainly not if it means waiting longer.

 

[kelpcar]

all EV's are overpriced by, at minimum, the amount of 'subsidy' provided by government.
there's a reason Tesla bumped their pricing 4K in 2021 (along with every other maker), and colleges raised tuition fees so aggressively.
it's called government.

the federal EV credit fully phased out for Tesla in 2019. The full $7500 credit was gone at the end of 2018.

 

[FultonMDUSA]

Yah, you might be closer to the formula of the randomness. Feeling like there's 2 pools, existing and new orders. The fulfillment will be grabbing from each pool about equal so that they can claim they are working on existing fulfilment and also providing "faster" delivery on new orders without straight lying on EDD.

The good news is that if you have the need for a MY, it's good to gamble now compared to a couple months back. Got choices from brand new, existing inventory, used inventory, etc.

If I were Tesla, I'd primarily fill the orders placed after the summer price increase first, ahead of orders placed at lower prices. I would also further prioritize orders placed after the tax credit was passed because those buyers are probably less likely to cancel/delay to try to get the tax credit.

 

[Daekwan]

I agree demand isn't infinite but it is still well in excess of supply and will be for another 12-18 months.

the only MY's at 3 months are MYP's, which are a very low percentage of the order base.
M3-RWD is range challenged; people want all the range they can get. For the additional spend, the M3LR is a better deal.
ID.4 hasn't seen great demand; it's reviews aren't all that, and VW has issues.

Tax credits will find a way to get employed. Note as well EU demands to be included. That will get noticed in WDC.
That assessment could change if election results cause Biden's boys to significantly walk back their Green agenda (doubtful, as they're committed idiots).

I agree that Tesla North America will likely start with SC incentives. But they're not even close to that need here yet. China is very different.

https://ev-tsla.com/

There are currently 101 Model Y's sitting in inventory nationwide. These vehicles are brand new builds (some demos).. half are already 2023 models which started being built just a couple of weeks ago. Most importantly ALL of them are ready for immediate delivery across the entire US. There is effectively NO wait to buy a brand new Model Y. That includes both the MYP and the MYLR. You just have to choose a color/option combination that is in stock. This is literally the highest number of available listed I've seen since I purchased my Y new in March of 2021. As someone who checked inventory trackers often, I can tell you last quarter was also the first where they didn't all sell by the end of the quarter.. and the number of available inventory vehicles goes up about 25% every month.

Granted we all know a new $7,500 tax credit is coming in January and there are definitely smart people on the fence waiting this out for another 7 weeks. But for anyone who has been paying attention the available supply of Model Y's (new & used) has been increasing to the point where it's concerning. Concerning in that trade-in values are dropping significantly. I feel terrible for anyone purchasing a new Model Y right now at current prices combined with 7% car loan interest rates as most of their value is going to be absolutely washed away quicker than they can drive the car home. They are effectively buying a $70K vehicle.. with an $80K loan.. and its trade-in value will be down to $45K in less than a year. More likely about 6 months as the looming tax credit is bound to put downward pressure on used 3 & Y's

 

[tangible1]

https://ev-tsla.com/

There are currently 101 Model Y's sitting in inventory nationwide. These vehicles are brand new builds (some demos).. half are already 2023 models which started being built just a couple of weeks ago. Most importantly ALL of them are ready for immediate delivery across the entire US. There is effectively NO wait to buy a brand new Model Y. That includes both the MYP and the MYLR. You just have to choose a color/option combination that is in stock. This is literally the highest number of available listed I've seen since I purchased my Y new in March of 2021. As someone who checked inventory trackers often, I can tell you last quarter was also the first where they didn't all sell by the end of the quarter.. and the number of available inventory vehicles goes up about 25% every month.

Granted we all know a new $7,500 tax credit is coming in January and there are definitely smart people on the fence waiting this out for another 7 weeks. But for anyone who has been paying attention the available supply of Model Y's (new & used) has been increasing to the point where it's concerning. Concerning in that trade-in values are dropping significantly. I feel terrible for anyone purchasing a new Model Y right now at current prices combined with 7% car loan interest rates as most of their value is going to be absolutely washed away quicker than they can drive the car home. They are effectively buying a $70K vehicle.. with an $80K loan.. and its trade-in value will be down to $45K in less than a year. More likely about 6 months as the looming tax credit is bound to put downward pressure on used 3 & Y's

everyone is an adult and responsible for their own decisions. I don't falsely feel terrible for others and I'm not concerned about any of this.
And neither should anyone else be. It's the ebb and flow of the market.
Tesla is doing well, will continue to do well, and while competition is coming, it's still unable to deliver serious volume, and fears of anyone offering superior solutions have all foundered. That won't last forever either but welcome to the real world. Competition and choice are good.
If you're an ostrich or blinkered about other vendors, and require Tesla to dominate on all fronts, you're likely lying awake at night listening for burglars too.

 

[cusetownusa]

As someone that likes CarPlay and used it exclusively in my previous vehicle with no issues...I cannot figure out why so many here want it so bad. The Tesla UI is excellent. It's fast, I've never had a glitch, it 's perfectly optimized for the huge screen, it's easy to navigate, it uses Google Maps, etc. Even if CarPlay was available, I would never opt to use its compromised, windowed experience over the native UI. I'm a huge Apple guy and buy everything they sell, but I'm still not understanding this desire.

I agree, including being an Apple guy myself. CarPlay to me seemed to be a solution to a problem. But with my model Y, the problem doesn’t exist and CarPlay isn’t needed as I prefer the native UI.

 

[tangible1]

Took the delivery today and front passenger side door is scraping the fender while opening. and scratches and misaligned frunk/trunk
the other guy who took delivery has scratches and chipped roof glass.

no other car vendor has ever seen that level of QC failure?

I fault the SC you are working with for poor delivery prep.

 

[tangible1]

Took the delivery today and front passenger side door is scraping the fender while opening. and scratches and misaligned frunk/trunk
the other guy who took delivery has scratches and chipped roof glass.

no other car vendor has ever seen that level of QC failure?

I fault the SC you are working with for poor delivery prep.

 

[tangible1]

the federal EV credit fully phased out for Tesla in 2019. The full $7500 credit was gone at the end of 2018.

and in September of 2021, politics ruled the News and the new BBB legislative agenda was promoted that to include a $4000 credit for EV's.
according to the News Media, Joe Manchin ended up killing the BBB legislation (Build Back Better).
But the whole Tesla world shuddered while trying to evade deliveries until the new rebate would be available Jan 1 2022.

 

[Daekwan]

everyone is an adult and responsible for their own decisions. I don't falsely feel terrible for others and I'm not concerned about any of this.
And neither should anyone else be. It's the ebb and flow of the market.
Tesla is doing well, will continue to do well, and while competition is coming, it's still unable to deliver serious volume, and fears of anyone offering superior solutions have all foundered. That won't last forever either but welcome to the real world. Competition and choice are good.
If you're an ostrich or blinkered about other vendors, and require Tesla to dominate on all fronts, you're likely lying awake at night listening for burglars too.

I agree with all that. Which is why the only Model Y I purchased was the $39K standard range sold last year. The current iteration and pricing as is.. is grossly overpriced. And a lot of people are going to find that out the hard way AFTER they purchased it.

 

[voxel]

forgive me if I asked before - when did you put in your order? Mine from early Feb finally has a delivery date of "2024." Given people often citing 2023 for what seem like current orders, that's mildly surprising, even if they order the truck instead of the SUV. I'm not sure I want to pay for the green interior, having not seen it, and certainly not if it means waiting longer.

Aug 2021.

A co-worker received his R1T just a few months shy of 2 years also so R1S wait times seem to be similar