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For the price of FSD as it stands, you can afford a lot of Uber / Taxis to pick your drunk self up from the bar. That's when you really need FSD
Go watch the thousands of videos on YouTube of people abusing Uber and Lyft drivers and their vehicles. That’s with a driver in the vehicle and on camera. You think a sticker stating a camera is on is going to mean anything?cue turning interior camera ON. And "Smile you're on Camera" sticker on the seat backs
Go watch the thousands of videos on YouTube of people abusing Uber and Lyft drivers and their vehicles. That’s with a driver in the vehicle and on camera. You think a sticker stating a camera is on is going to mean anything?
When full autonomy is reached, the value of FSD will 100% be a function of discounted future cash flows like any other business. If this is a vehicle designed and built to be driven one million miles, as planned, this should be something like a 10-year life on average, earning its owner around $30k per year.
Nope. He said they intend to have a US $25K vehicle in a few years.
But he didn't say that price would include FSD, though I'd expect it to be FSD-ready, just like all their current vehicles.
This is only true in a world with infinite demand for robotaxis.
A world which obviously does not exist.
Tesla already will have 1 million allegedly robotaxi capable cars on the road THIS YEAR- which is more than all taxis and uber/lyft drivers in the US combined.
And Tesla has plans to significantly continue to ramp up # of cars produced year over year- aiming at 50% YoY growth on average for another decade- with perhaps as many as 20 million cars per year made by 2030.
The idea "everyone" with an FSD Tesla will be able to earn $30,000 a year is nonsensical.
Think so? Although I would agree that the entire population can't be expected to always act in their best interest and there will be a transition period during which it may be cheaper and more convenient to drive the car you already own, the cost per mile that the robo-taxi fleet will be able to offer ride-sharing (i.e. much, much less than the current Uber/Lyft options) will ensure near-capacity usage of all participating vehicles.
The use of current rideshare options isn't driven as much by cost as it is convenience. That will change dramatically once it costs significantly less to use a robo-taxi than it does to own/operate your own car.
After all, at that point each participating Tesla vehicle becomes a for-profit business and pricing equilibrium will maximize utilization and, therefore, total profitability of the asset (not profitability per mile). Regardless of the $30k/yr income estimate, the point is that the cost to participate (current FSD price) is MUCH less than it has the quite likely potential to earn the owner, making it an attractive investment.
And the owner, in the future, is likely to be Tesla or a fleet operator who was willing to pay the premium value of FSD at that point.
All good points about urban and rural differences. Although I don't know where you get your statistic about NYC residents' car ownership being nearly 50%???
According to recent census estimates,[1] almost 1.4 million households in New York City own a car compared to 3.1 million total households. This means 45 percent of all households in the city own a car (and almost 3 percent that own three or more!)
Not sure what you mean by "anybody being able to do the same thing for the same cost".
The fully autonomous TAAS market is going to be largely a first-mover advantage, especially if your competition (Tesla) also manufactures EVs with the lowest cost to produce. Seeing as how the hardware (car) value will pale in comparison to the software (FSD) value, it will behoove competitors to license the software from Tesla rather than continuing to develop their own (unless they have a clear and present path to a feature complete version of their own).
As for fleet operators, yes, this may very well be the best model for all parties. But I wouldn't discount the possibility of Tesla being the local fleet operator or franchising it.
I think your assumptions about charging infrastructure are premature.
We don't have the push for the L3 charger saturation yet because, well, right now the EV use case only needs it for roadtrips. The first robo-taxis will be in urban envrionments
, with rides averaging much less than 45mph, which means the range of an EV is significantly increased (versus pushing air at 55+mph on a highway). The vehicle ranges that Tesla appears to be shooting for should last the entire lot of average waking hours, at which point the demand for RTs drops dramatically and charging begins. There will be plenty of L3 (or better) charging options by the time they are needed.
There will be plenty of L3 (or better) charging options by the time they are needed.
Still talking about something that does not exist yet ? So the aspiration of the upcoming enhanced super cruise is close to eap. But really just speculation at this point. If I want to speculate I would rather keep my eye on the FSD prize.
GM is a traditional car maker where they test/validate things well before they release them. Sure delays happen, and enhanced supercruise did get delayed a bit because of COVID-19.
But, we already know what features enhanced supercruise has on them because they are being sold this quarter.
it's certainly possible whenever Enhanced SC actually is available to use it'll catch them up to roughly 2017/18 Tesla (though on a much more limited set of roads), we'll have to wait and see.
Tesla's price was far too low when they were actually selling Full Self Driving. People purchasing now are only promised "Autosteer on city streets" as a future feature. The price is too high given the risk that that is all you'll get.I am trying to spell out the case for why Tesla is justified in charging for FSD and why a current Tesla buyer should seriously consider paying for it.