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Thanks all,
I was replying to "enlombardo " who seemed to think that the VIN is allocated to the car AFTER production.
As most say cars are produced in batches of colour with VIN added as dashboard fascia is installed.
After it comes off the line and passes QA it is then passed to production schedulers who then allocate
as they see fit i.e. early March East Coast and or full trucks etc.
Used to work at Nissan UK factory so pretty sure process is the same.
Car will then be allocated to owner at this stage.
Think of us in UK who will probably not get RHD until 2020 at present rates.

Maybe in the UK but in the US major body parts have the VIN and so does the engine block (ICE cars). They do this so it’s harder to steal cars for parts.
 
So, like this:
Production for a blue w/sport wheels is scheduled and a VIN is assigned to the vehicle.
Matched to my order and VIN appears in my account.
Car is manufactured with the VIN and delivered to me.

Probably not. The car is probably well through production and possibly even in transit to a particular geographical region before the car is matched to your order and VIN is assigned.

This doesn't match the S&X process, which are built more to order. With the 3, there are limited combinations available and PLENTY of orders that will likely match whatever combination they build, so they just pump them out as fast as they can and match them later.
 
Probably not. The car is probably well through production and possibly even in transit to a particular geographical region before the car is matched to your order and VIN is assigned.

This doesn't match the S&X process, which are built more to order. With the 3, there are limited combinations available and PLENTY of orders that will likely match whatever combination they build, so they just pump them out as fast as they can and match them later.

This is my favorite answer and if correct should mean I'll have my car very very soon.
 
This doesn't match the S&X process, which are built more to order. With the 3, there are limited combinations available and PLENTY of orders that will likely match whatever combination they build, so they just pump them out as fast as they can and match them later.

That makes sense since the person who told me that was probably thinking of the S/X process. If the car is already on it's way here I'd better get my butt in gear selling my Leaf.
 
I think I said the opposite. I assumed the VIN was assigned in my account when production of my car is scheduled. I was talking to the manager at my local Tesla store and he told me that once a VIN is assigned the specialist can see when production of the car will be completed and get a delivery date.

So, like this:
Production for a blue w/sport wheels is scheduled and a VIN is assigned to the vehicle.
Matched to my order and VIN appears in my account.
Car is manufactured with the VIN and delivered to me.


With that said it was an assumption based on a conversation with someone in a Tesla store and we know how reliable that information is.

It’s pretty clear people don’t get their VINs until after the car is made. VIN to delivery time is usually fairly short.
 
nattT1w.jpg


Considering most people's VIN assignment to delivery is 6-10 days, it must happen after the car is finished being made.

I'm now at 11 days since configuration, and the biggest number is 11-15 days from config to VIN, which means most likely I'll get my VIN this week. Also, 70% are 30 days or less from config to delivery, which is great!
 
nattT1w.jpg


Considering most people's VIN assignment to delivery is 6-10 days, it must happen after the car is finished being made.

I'm now at 11 days since configuration, and the biggest number is 11-15 days from config to VIN, which means most likely I'll get my VIN this week. Also, 70% are 30 days or less from config to delivery, which is great!
I want believe the past is a good predictor of the future. However there are 1-2 flaws in this. #1, a lot of historical deliveries that are in the data are driven by deliveries in california (many in N. cal are factory deliveries, which tend to be very quick). #2 To maximize their sales numbers (instead of quoting "cars are still in transport"), my guess is that they are prioritizing assigning VINS to non-CA cars in the near term to ensure that they hit the quarterly numbers. So for those outside of CA, the better estimate is probably 11-15 days for VIN to delivery.

Net, net, for those for ordered in mid Feb regardless of location (with CA orders VIN to delivery being 7 days and non-CA order VIN to delivery being more like 11-15 days), I would assume mid to late March for delivery. Tesla will want to get all those who configured in Feb out by March to maximize delivery numbers.
 
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I want believe the past is a good predictor of the future. However there are 1-2 flaws in this. #1, a lot of historical deliveries that are in the data are driven by deliveries in california (many in N. cal are factory deliveries, which tend to be very quick). #2 To maximize their sales numbers (instead of quoting "cars are still in transport"), my guess is that they are prioritizing assigning VINS to non-CA cars in the near term to ensure that they hit the quarterly numbers. So for those outside of CA, the better estimate is probably 11-15 days for VIN to delivery.

Net, net, for those for ordered in mid Feb regardless of location (with CA orders VIN to delivery being 7 days and non-CA order VIN to delivery being more like 11-15 days), I would assume mid to late March for delivery. Tesla will want to get all those who configured in Feb out by March to maximize delivery numbers.
Possibly... I actually copied the data and narrowed to deliveries of just red with 18 inch aero (just to see about my own config), and it was similar. Out of 44 deliveries, only 8 were more than 30 days from config to delivery, and out of those 44, only 6 were more than 10 days from VIN to delivery.
 
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nattT1w.jpg


Considering most people's VIN assignment to delivery is 6-10 days, it must happen after the car is finished being made.

I'm now at 11 days since configuration, and the biggest number is 11-15 days from config to VIN, which means most likely I'll get my VIN this week. Also, 70% are 30 days or less from config to delivery, which is great!


Another big flaw is that you are looking at old data. Something seems to have happened to production volumes. Thats part of why they stopped issuing as many invitations to configure. Also, why they seem to be delivering VERY few cars.

Look at all the people who were configured but no VIN on January 31 - how many of them now have VINs and delivery? How many people currently have configured but no VIN?
 
Possibly... I actually copied the data and narrowed to North Carolina deliveries of just red with 18 inch aero (just to see about my own config), and it was similar. Out of 44 deliveries, only 8 were more than 30 days from config to delivery, and out of those 44, only 6 were more than 10 days from VIN to delivery.

The only caveat here is that manufacturing appears to be rotating through the colors/wheels on a regular basis. So there is naturally a window of delivery times based on where they were in the cycle when you configured. If you timed it just right and they just finished up a batch of your color/wheel combo, config->delivery might be relatively short. But if you configured just after the last color/wheel combo was assigned, you might have to wait all the time until the cycle repeats itself. Also, if there is a shortage of your particular wheels at the time you configured, there may be an added delay. I doubt any of this would result in a window bigger than say 2-3 weeks, but if you're trying to time selling your current car, it's something to be aware of.