No Reservation required...Just order.

[Runt8]

You are not seriously considering spending $70+K on a Model 3, come on.

What? Why not?

Because he’s complaining about spending an extra $1000 (which goes towards the price of the car anyway).

My thoughts on this whole thing - reservation date does matter, mostly. However, as deliveries appear to be a bottleneck,Tesla isn’t going to religiously stick to it to determine actual delivery order. We know Tesla batch builds each specific configuration, so I imagine it goes something like this:

1. Batch build a certain number of 3s with the same config.
2. Filter the order list by that configuration.
3. Sort by order date, with reservation date weighted in.
4. For each person in the list, determine if they are logistically capable of getting the car to the buyer - taking into account shipping, delivery center capabilities, etc.

Bottom line is that most likely, some people who order after you will get their car before you. And you most likely will get your car ahead of someone who ordered before you. Some people will hit the jackpot and the stars will align and get them their car very quickly. Other people will get skipped until their config is built again. But statistically you’re more likely to get your car earlier if you have a reservation then someone who doesn’t.

 

[DiveDeep]

At this point I don't think the Prior owner status OR Reservation status is really influencing when you get your car. If I had it to do again I wouldn't have reserved..
Case in point, I am an X owner since 7/2016, in Utah, reserved during the reveal online 3/31/2016, configured 6/30 AWD, silver and no AP with 19" wheels.
In the M3Delivery tracker spreadsheet, I can identify nearly identical cars that were not reserved, non-owner and configured after 6/30 that are already delivered!
For example user aekemmerer configured July 25th. Only differences in car is Aero wheels and AP.

So, Tesla is IGNORING that owner status and reservation that I made in favor of some other, as yet unidentified factor.

 

[TeeEmCee]

So, Tesla is IGNORING that owner status and reservation that I made in favor of some other, as yet unidentified factor.

I think this is pretty simple on Tesla’s end. Deliveries are prioritized such as to maximize revenue by end of Q3.

I bet each order is evaluated on a number of criteria such as:
- buyer in logistically-favorable area
- selected service center load
- payment type (cash likely somewhat better than third party loan, which in turn is better than Tesla loan)
- price of config on order
- trade-in yes/no
- etc.

Each such criterion could be assigned a weight and all existing inventory is then matched to orders starting with the best score. I doubt that the reservation date or prior owner status plays any role at this point. Under different circumstances, it would, but it’s do or die time. They have to show the sales and get the cash.

I bet they’re going to operate like this through the end of the year at least.

 

[DiveDeep]

I think Tesla may be on another end-of-quarter push for deliveries. They certainly held back at the end of Q2 so as not to push past the 200k deliveries total to help us all out withe the $7500 tax credit.
Now I think they are pushing for high delivery numbers.
This is why..
Got email LAST THURSDAY saying my car would be available 9/26 - 10/3, and please reply to schedule.
"Your Model 3 will be available between Wednesday, September 26 through Wednesday, October 3.
Please reply with the day (or days) that will work best for you and if morning or afternoons are best for you."

I replied immediately, at end of day, saying I wanted to schedule for Oct 1st 11 am in SLC..
By this morning I had gotten no reply so I dropped the DSA another email just checking in. Got the reply within two hours saying she had been out of the office since Friday, and could they schedule for 9/30 (Sunday).. really..
"Are you able to take delivery on September 30 or between the 26th-30th? At this time, we’re focusing on scheduling for the month of September, and your vehicle will be ready in a few weeks."

(Bold underline added for emphasis by me!)

Within a few minutes on sending an email with preferred date and time, my account/reservation page had changed to confirm final payment and delivery date was shown and Edit design is gone. Alas still no VIN or finalized MVPA. Last email from DSA said has gone to contracting for final paperwork.

M3 LR AWD
Silver metallic
19"
Black ineterior
Non-AP

 

[MXWing]

TSLA dives to 250 or if Q3 disappoints.

This has been known for a long time.

 

[Phrixotrichus]

Pff meanwhile in europe we`d be glad to have those "problems".
No word on a europe start for the model 3, still.

 

[1deepthink]

I think Tesla may be on another end-of-quarter push for deliveries. They certainly held back at the end of Q2 so as not to push past the 200k deliveries total to help us all out withe the $7500 tax credit.
Now I think they are pushing for high delivery numbers.
This is why..
Got email LAST THURSDAY saying my car would be available 9/26 - 10/3, and please reply to schedule.
"Your Model 3 will be available between Wednesday, September 26 through Wednesday, October 3.
Please reply with the day (or days) that will work best for you and if morning or afternoons are best for you."

I replied immediately, at end of day, saying I wanted to schedule for Oct 1st 11 am in SLC..
By this morning I had gotten no reply so I dropped the DSA another email just checking in. Got the reply within two hours saying she had been out of the office since Friday, and could they schedule for 9/30 (Sunday).. really..
"Are you able to take delivery on September 30 or between the 26th-30th? At this time, we’re focusing on scheduling for the month of September, and your vehicle will be ready in a few weeks."

(Bold underline added for emphasis by me!)

Within a few minutes on sending an email with preferred date and time, my account/reservation page had changed to confirm final payment and delivery date was shown and Edit design is gone. Alas still no VIN or finalized MVPA. Last email from DSA said has gone to contracting for final paperwork.

M3 LR AWD
Silver metallic
19"
Black ineterior
Non-AP

I think you're spot on. Did you agree to the September date? Picking mine up in SLC 9/25...I hope Good luck!

 

[JTwo]

I understand your frustration. Cancel your current $1k, its refundable. Then place an order. Since you can still get it before end of the year, it might save you $1k

What difference will that make? The $1k reservation and $2500 are going to be applied to the purchase price. You’re going to have to cough up that much anyways.

 

[DiveDeep]

I think you're spot on. Did you agree to the September date? Picking mine up in SLC 9/25...I hope Good luck!

I did. 9/26 it is!

 

[voip-ninja]

Pff meanwhile in europe we`d be glad to have those "problems".
No word on a europe start for the model 3, still.

I imagine it will happen as soon as supply for the US market finally outpaces demand.

 

[suwaneedad]

I imagine it will happen as soon as supply for the US market finally outpaces demand.

EU is going to happen very soon, IMO. US demand for LRs is already below supply, and it won't take much longer for the US P demand to be satiated, as well as the US AWD demand. We will see some sort of big move by Tesla before the end of this month, to both drive cash inflows (deposits) before quarter end, as well as to fill up the Q4/Q1 production capacity. Whether that is EU LR, or US SR, is all that remains to be seen.

Possibly a software-locked US SR is on tap, but I'd expect to instead first see a month or so of EU LR production in October that can be shipped and converted to cash before 12/31. The US is drowning in LR inventory.

 

[voip-ninja]

EU is going to happen very soon, IMO. US demand for LRs is already below supply, and it won't take much longer for the US P demand to be satiated, as well as the US AWD demand. We will see some sort of big move by Tesla before the end of this month, to both drive cash inflows (deposits) before quarter end, as well as to fill up the Q4/Q1 production capacity. Whether that is EU LR, or US SR, is all that remains to be seen.

Possibly a software-locked US SR is on tap, but I'd expect to instead first see a month or so of EU LR production in October that can be shipped and converted to cash before 12/31. The US is drowning in LR inventory.

What’s your source that the US is drowning in LR inventory?

 

[ebmcs03]

Possibly a software-locked US SR is on tap.

Better not. Know how much money they’re going to lose? I still want a place to take my car for warranty service.

 

[UtahIsRad]

At this point I don't think the Prior owner status OR Reservation status is really influencing when you get your car. If I had it to do again I wouldn't have reserved..
Case in point, I am an X owner since 7/2016, in Utah, reserved during the reveal online 3/31/2016, configured 6/30 AWD, silver and no AP with 19" wheels.
In the M3Delivery tracker spreadsheet, I can identify nearly identical cars that were not reserved, non-owner and configured after 6/30 that are already delivered!
For example user aekemmerer configured July 25th. Only differences in car is Aero wheels and AP.

So, Tesla is IGNORING that owner status and reservation that I made in favor of some other, as yet unidentified factor.

The funny part is, the car you are getting Sept 26th might have been mine. I had the exact same config, earlier reservation time, and configuration date... waiting all this time gave my wife the time she needed to finally chime in with her dislike for silver and I caved and switched to white because I like both. I like light colored cars here in Utah. Of course that happened just before we heard they were done making silver, so now I still have crickets from Tesla. Enjoy your silver!

Oh by the way, I also would never reserve a car with Tesla again. The wait has not been worth the tiny increase in priority. They opened the flood gates literally the same day they told me I could configure my car. WTF! We need to create a pole, I bet the number that would reserve again here in the U.S. is a pretty low percent now (unless maybe those that wanted RWD LR). All these cars better still be awesome in 5-10 years or they will fail as a company.

 

[voip-ninja]

The funny part is, the car you are getting Sept 26th might have been mine. I had the exact same config, earlier reservation time, and configuration date... waiting all this time gave my wife the time she needed to finally chime in with her dislike for silver and I caved and switched to white because I like both. I like light colored cars here in Utah. Of course that happened just before we heard they were done making silver, so now I still have crickets from Tesla. Enjoy your silver!

Oh by the way, I also would never reserve a car with Tesla again. The wait has not been worth the tiny increase in priority. They opened the flood gates literally the same day they told me I could configure my car. WTF! We need to create a pole, I bet the number that would reserve again here in the U.S. is a pretty low percent now (unless maybe those that wanted RWD LR). All these cars better still be awesome in 5-10 years or they will fail as a company.

Remember that those who reserved early, most of whom were day 1 reservation holders also get lifetime free data and have been insulated against Tesla's relentless price increases on the Model 3. The same car I ordered, if ordered today, would be $2700 more. For those still waiting on a red color car would be $4200 more.

 

[UtahIsRad]

Remember that those who reserved early, most of whom were day 1 reservation holders also get lifetime free data and have been insulated against Tesla's relentless price increases on the Model 3. The same car I ordered, if ordered today, would be $2700 more. For those still waiting on a red color car would be $4200 more.

While 100% accurate, I still contend ANYONE, no reservation required, had at least 3 days to order to get the lowest pricing and also free connectivity.

 

[suwaneedad]

What’s your source that the US is drowning in LR inventory?

Troy's spreadsheet for one; it shows 10 days of LR backlog and has been declining toward zero for weeks/months.
Posts on this forum for another; lots of people placing LR orders and then being surprised when they can take delivery within days.
Observations of my local Tesla lot. LRs there for the taking.
For the life of me, I don't know why Tesla has not yet published its LR inventory on its website, just as it does for S/X. My guess is that it's because it's not quite sure what it has and where at any given moment, so getting it onto the website would be tough. Or they don't want to admit to there being a glut of LRs.
Even if they stopped contributing an entire assembly line to the LR, it just means they'd chew through the ~60 days of AWD backlog that much faster. Something's gotta give soon, and it will before end of month (just as it did at the end of June).

 

[voip-ninja]

Troy's spreadsheet for one; it shows 10 days of LR backlog and has been declining toward zero for weeks/months.
Posts on this forum for another; lots of people placing LR orders and then being surprised when they can take delivery within days.
Observations of my local Tesla lot. LRs there for the taking.
For the life of me, I don't know why Tesla has not yet published its LR inventory on its website, just as it does for S/X. My guess is that it's because it's not quite sure what it has and where at any given moment, so getting it onto the website would be tough. Or they don't want to admit to there being a glut of LRs.
Even if they stopped contributing an entire assembly line to the LR, it just means they'd chew through the ~60 days of AWD backlog that much faster. Something's gotta give soon, and it will before end of month (just as it did at the end of June).

Interesting. There are a lot of markets where LR would be acceptable. CA, FL and TX are probably the largest in terms of potential buyers.

I just don't understand why they wouldn't quickly blow that inventory out by doing more delivery events in those markets to get rid of those cars. There are probably many people who would take immediate delivery of an LR/RWD vehicle since they know the tax credit is going to be halved soon.

 

[suwaneedad]

Oh by the way, I also would never reserve a car with Tesla again.

The only thing that bums me out about the early rez is that my back seats are inferior to later builds.
I recognize Elon's stance about this: be happy that the day you order your car that you are getting the best car available. (Tomorrow's cars may be better, however.) This is a tough mental shift from all of us trained by the Model Year concept from the ICE mfrs.
While I do think that I would put a deposit on a Model Y, in fact I'd be willing to prepay (and thereby lock in the price) for my Model Y as a way to help Tesla continue to give the finger to Wall Street in terms of it being a source of capital, I'd like to have the ability to wait to take delivery of my Model Y until the production kinks have been worked out on the first 10-15k units.

 

[suwaneedad]

There are probably many people who would take immediate delivery of an LR/RWD vehicle since they know the tax credit is going to be halved soon.

Ah, you may have just broken the code on why they're still dedicating 1of4 assembly lines to LRs...assume there will be a bunch of demand as 12/31 draws near. I hadn't considered that. But man that is risky, particularly since building inventory consumes a TON of cash. Not to mention the storage/organization challenges already experienced during the July/July production push. Tesla appears to be much better as a Just In Time car manufacturer than as a "build em/store em/let the market absorb em" manufacturer.
It'll be interesting to see what path mgt elects to pursue for the remaining months of 2018, and with an eye toward 1Q19.
Pass the popcorn.