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Non-owner config invites have begun!
- Thread starter PoitNarf
- Start date
I asked how many people got invited in the last batch, and scrapps advised I look at the soreadsheet.
You joking about calling Elon is just as nonsensical as scrapps insinuating that a user driven spreadsheet tells us how many people got invited in the last batch.
The spreadsheet is definitely not perfect but it is the best we have.
If you look at the Invites tab, and the table at b30, you will see actual and estimated invites for this and past weeks. For this week, there are 5 invites which corresponds to an estimated 89 invites. Here is the table with the predominately non-owner invites highlighted. Hope that helps:
I now know that. Prior to knowing that, when asking about specific numbers, scrapps asvised I look at the spreadsheet for those answers. Though the spreadsheet is the best we’ve got, it doesn’t answer my original question, which I now know is unanswerable at this time.
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
KentuckyX
Member
Not only invites for 3s, but deliveries for S and X. I should be getting my 3 the first or second week in April. Any prizes for the person who gets the magical 200,000th delivery?
NRG4All
Member
Late April, 1hr after conference call, 3 months bump in delivery schedule just like last time.
I'm quite shocked (and dismayed) there wasn't another round of invites this week. It does look like they are focusing on all the deliveries they can by March 31, which means without additional queues being set up, early Q2 deliveries will start off very slow.
This doesn't matter since Tesla doesn't report monthly numbers and the quarter total is all that matters, but it will be awkward after the rush of final week of March to be in a lull of only delivering those that couldn't make their Q1 delivery schedule.
This may change if there are actually significant changes in production numbers (hitting near 2500/wk on time) and delivery logistics. Then a slew of invites next week may actually happen and turn into rather quick deliveries. Either way, it is looking more and more likely that my Mar-May time frame is going to slip again just due to location.
This doesn't matter since Tesla doesn't report monthly numbers and the quarter total is all that matters, but it will be awkward after the rush of final week of March to be in a lull of only delivering those that couldn't make their Q1 delivery schedule.
This may change if there are actually significant changes in production numbers (hitting near 2500/wk on time) and delivery logistics. Then a slew of invites next week may actually happen and turn into rather quick deliveries. Either way, it is looking more and more likely that my Mar-May time frame is going to slip again just due to location.
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
Only 2% max of the Model 3 reservations have been serviced. So there are a perhaps over 390,000 left global, say 200,000 USA.
At 10,000 a month assuming no more new MS/X buyers ordering and no exports, the existing backlog is not going be fazed in another 2 weeks.
So a significant amount of Line Waiters, and Day One will be left in the queue at the end of the Q1. Projecting 5,000 / week peak deliveries before the end of Q2 means over 3/4 of the queue remain on July 1. So yes, the queue will be pushed back again.
Unless there is a very low conversion rate and zero exports.
If all the line waiters have their cars configured by April 1? You still have to deal with MS/X Model 3 orders or transfers.
I hope I'm wrong. But the numbers just aren't there for those who are sitting on May-July getting any calls in April other than a bump.
Agreed on this.
Not sure why they wouldn’t be taking more configurations at this point to plan for Q2. I’m in the March-May batch (and I’m 20mins from the factory), and am starting to doubt they will hit this window (still haven’t been invited to configure).
As much as I’d like to wait, this is really testing my resilience. The 3 hits the intersection of sporty-environmentally friendly-small that nothing else does. If I got for something else that hits the sporty-small angle at least.
When I think about this the only option that remains is this one: they are producing cars with little concern for customer configuration at this time. Since there are so few options to choose from they know that whatever they produce will find a match. Their biggest and primary concern is producing as many as they can. Thus it stands to reason that they will put the emphasis on seeing how many they can produce first and then, based on that number, sending invitations. If this is the case, we can expect to see a number of customers reporting very short wait times between config and delivery since many of them will have configured pre made vehicles. If they have been seeing unforecasted fluctuations in weekly output, this would be a good way to keep delivery times on schedule. Produce first, invite second. Other than short delivery times, I expect we would also see a sudden large batch of invitations. Late next week puts us 4 weeks out from the factory retool, that seems like a healthy amount of time to produce a sizable cache of cars. I expect a large invite batch this coming Wednesday or Thursday.
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NRG4All
Member
I suspect you are right. But to look at the glass half full, is to consider where you may be in line. If you are very near the top you may receive your car in the near future. Some one gets those cars. I just wish the Tesla were more open to providing some sort of indicator that an individual could compare their reservation to the total of reservations.
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