October 2021 Order Delivery Dates

[paulkva]

Frankly, even filtering the Teslike spreadsheet to a single configuration yields a lot of noise...
As I said in a previous post, without any official or inside info, we might as well be reading tea leaves.

Further perspective: the Teslike spreadsheet tracks just over 1,200 orders with the bulk of the order dates spanning nearly a year (June 2021 thru May 2022), and of those only ~300 have a delivery date. Globally, Tesla delivered more than 300,000 vehicles in Q1 of 2022 alone. Even if we presume they're "only" delivering 125K MY (their most popular model) per quarter, it means the data we have is likely less than 0.1% of actual deliveries.

125K x 4 = 500K
300 / 500K = 0.0006 = 0.06%

I know my math is a bit hand-wavey (e.g. the press doesn't break down deliveries of M3 vs MY, presuming constant production rather than ramp-up over time or pauses for supply issues, etc), but I still think the rough numbers still provide a bit more perspective.

Having said that -- really hoping we get a VIN (and a car!) soon...

 

[carlos31820]

Looks like it’s a go for pickup tomorrow! Texted Tesla to confirm since I’m 2 hours away from Delivery center.

 

[SageBrush]

Further perspective:

I don't have a number handy but I looked over the spreadsheet during a period where cars are almost certain to have been delivered or the orders canceled and found a good 25+% of the entries were not updated.

This finding leads me to focus on cars delivered for whatever insight it may provide, and ignore the incomplete entries.

 

[3YMimi73]

I’ve received texts and phone calls about my delivery tomorrow. How does one sleep the night before delivery day?!?!

 

[RocY]

I’ve received texts and phone calls about my delivery tomorrow. How does one sleep the night before delivery day?!?!

I didn’t

 

[3YMimi73]

I didn’t

I have been keeping very busy today! I’ve been out in the fresh air all day so hopefully it will help me sleep. And I have to try to get some sleep because I will be driving to and from Mt. Kisco. Husband gets to rest on the way down

 

[orion2001]

Spoke to my service center (Raleigh) earlier today and was able to confirm that my car has arrived and is on-site. They are completely swamped and couldn't move me up to a Sat/Sunday pickup but I was able to move my pickup ahead on Monday to 3pm. This is finally starting to feel real!! Really hoping there aren't any major issues with the car (looks like Fremont quality has improved a ton and things are pretty solid for the most part these days). My kids have no idea that we are getting the MY or that I'll be picking it up on Monday. It's going to be fun messing with them when I pick them up from school on Monday evening

 

[taking12many]

Just got a text that my VIN was assigned! F442. I'm in complete shock. LOL Estimated delivery 5/24-5/30.

 

[cc333]

So... great news! Got a call this morning, got a match, so accepted! Currently waiting for financing approval. VIN is F419, that seems to be a bit old compared to the F442 people are getting? Any idea about when F419 range was manufactured? Asked about the odometer, got a 3.5 miles on it, seems pretty new, but also pretty low, hearing average is 15 miles on the vehicle?

 

[Nora DiCaprio]

So... great news! Got a call this morning, got a match, so accepted! Currently waiting for financing approval. VIN is F419, that seems to be a bit old compared to the F442 people are getting? Any idea about when F419 range was manufactured? Asked about the odometer, got a 3.5 miles on it, seems pretty new, but also pretty low, hearing average is 15 miles on the vehicle?

I have an F445 and an F419 from last month, I think, but as long as it's a Tesla

 

[insaini]

So... great news! Got a call this morning, got a match, so accepted! Currently waiting for financing approval. VIN is F419, that seems to be a bit old compared to the F442 people are getting? Any idea about when F419 range was manufactured? Asked about the odometer, got a 3.5 miles on it, seems pretty new, but also pretty low, hearing average is 15 miles on the vehicle?

Wow I got a call this morning too ... Found a match ... And delivery is set for Tuesday! ... VIN is F433!

Looks like someone from Tesla is watching these forums! Lol

 

[cc333]

Wow I got a call this morning too ... Found a match ... And delivery is set for Tuesday! ... VIN is F433!

Looks like someone from Tesla is watching these forums! Lol

Congrats!

I have an F445 and an F419 from last month, I think, but as long as it's a Tesla

Yeah, just wondering why it's been sitting for so long given a demand is insane and should not be sitting for a month....? Weird it came / popped out of no where given it's been sitting for a month. Hoping for a smoother suspension many seem to have recently reported.

 

[Lccjblu]

I had the same “mystery hold” experience earlier in the year. Unexplained.
Later, an advisor got my hopes up by reaching out, specifically about my option for carrier directly delivery. Ultimately, never heard anything else for another 3.5 months.

I got a mystery hold too. Did your car ever arrive? And what was your EDD before and after the auto hold?

 

[AllenShi]

I got a mystery hold too. Did your car ever arrive? And what was your EDD before and after the auto hold?

My mystery hold the other day was becuase my order was over a year old and they weren’t sure if I was “still interested”. After speaking to them they said since my order is so old I have to take the VIN given to me and I can’t cancel it

 

[waittoolong]

So... great news! Got a call this morning, got a match, so accepted! Currently waiting for financing approval. VIN is F419, that seems to be a bit old compared to the F442 people are getting? Any idea about when F419 range was manufactured? Asked about the odometer, got a 3.5 miles on it, seems pretty new, but also pretty low, hearing average is 15 miles on the vehicle?

Mine is F439, so probably early-mid April build.

 

[Tezla.]

Tesla ---- Call me too. Please.

 

[EVAthlete21]

So... great news! Got a call this morning, got a match, so accepted! Currently waiting for financing approval. VIN is F419, that seems to be a bit old compared to the F442 people are getting? Any idea about when F419 range was manufactured? Asked about the odometer, got a 3.5 miles on it, seems pretty new, but also pretty low, hearing average is 15 miles on the vehicle?

15 miles is required in most states because the safety inspection is 15 miles

 

[cc333]

15 miles is required in most states because the safety inspection is 15 miles

So I'm being lied to?

 

[EVAthlete21]

So I'm being lied to?

It has 3.5 miles on it? Might live in a state that doesn’t require that inspection. If it has 35 miles on it then it’s possible it was just moved around the lot a few times

 

[cons220]

I got a mystery hold too. Did your car ever arrive? And what was your EDD before and after the auto hold?

I’m hoping to have it next weekend. Unfortunately, I am unable to give any info on my EDDs, because it simply said TBD (for months) upon selecting the Carrier Direct delivery option.
When the Service Advisor contacted me (a few weeks after the mystery hold), he led me to believe it was time to prepare for delivery, but also tried to encourage me to change to Teslas Express delivery (where I pick it up). Because it’s over 6 hours away, I needed to know when he expected this to happen. (In mid-January) he said he sees an EDD of mid-late March…finally, got a UPS Express envelope from him earlier this week (Wednesday) to sign (and return) registration documents…getting closer.