Ontario EV Rebates Cancelled July 11, 2018

[tombar]

So $47 million of the $140-$160 million had been spend as of December 2017. Doesn't seem to be as close to danger zone as originally thought on the surface unless we're missing something...


Like an election I guess lol

The election, by far, is the visible near immediate threat, however I wouldn't be surprised if there's a sharp spike in Qtr 1 of 2018 because of this threat. People who want the rebate are snapping up other BEVs and hybrids on the lots, I did a little shopping around at Nissan(Leaf), Chevy (Bolts & Volts) and Honda (Clarity) and they are getting very scarce, hard to find and order time is often months away from delivery.
The Ontario finance dept (who also has to approve M3 for the program) is probably aware of the huge number of M3 reservation numbers and while they hopefully will approve it soon, they know they will need to 'mange the communication' of how to shutdown the program in X months if no additional funding was in recent budget.

 

[realtycoon]

An update from the minister’s office regarding the spend on the CCAP.

https://www.ontario.ca/page/ministers-climate-change-action-plan-progress-report-2017#section-7

“Progress
Authorized Commitments (as of December 31, 2017): $47,000,000”

Given the $140-160m budget, seems like there's enough rebate for 7,000 to 11,000 cars at the $14,000 rebate level. If model 3 is at 2,000 per week and a good amount are being sent to Canada, this could be extinguished quickly, election or not.

 

[sitter_k]

Given the $140-160m budget, seems like there's enough rebate for 7,000 to 11,000 cars at the $14,000 rebate level. If model 3 is at 2,000 per week and a good amount are being sent to Canada, this could be extinguished quickly, election or not.

How many Canadian reservations do you think there are? How many of those are in Ontario?
I believe 300k reservations were US based.
83% of Canadians had a preference for awd. How many of those were Ontario based vs say BC? Some might change their mind...

 

[tombar]

How many Canadian reservations do you think there are? How many of those are in Ontario?
I believe 300k reservations were US based.
83% of Canadians had a preference for awd. How many of those were Ontario based vs say BC? Some might change their mind...

Based on some unofficial forecasts on forums, the total Ontario reservations could be anywhere between 10,000-25,000 (dis-proportionally high because of the $14K rebate IMHO) ... Seems so far a lot of people who got their invite are waiting for the AWD which Tesla "says will be an option mid 2018 with LR only battery". If that happens and somehow Conseratives don't win election(unlikely), the Ontario orders will really pickup. "why wait for SR when there won't be any rebate funding left",

 

[Neo1974]

Thanks Neo. That was extremely helpful, and therefore I've gone ahead and placed my order!

View attachment 291064

ASK343$sd

How many Canadian reservations do you think there are? How many of those are in Ontario?
I believe 300k reservations were US based.
83% of Canadians had a preference for awd. How many of those were Ontario based vs say BC? Some might change their mind...

I did. Waiting for AWD does not justify a 15K-20K premium imho...

 

[wayner]

How many Canadian reservations do you think there are? How many of those are in Ontario?
I believe 300k reservations were US based.
83% of Canadians had a preference for awd. How many of those were Ontario based vs say BC? Some might change their mind...

Historically about 47% of Tesla's Canadian sales were in ON if that helps.

 

[sitter_k]

ASK343$sd

I did. Waiting for AWD does not justify a 15K-20K premium imho...

Yes I would not want to pay $14000k more for the same car I can buy today or $15000 for awd. However, there is a real possibility that it will only be $5000 +/- $1000.

 

[Black Rain]

IMHO... The greatest risk that I see is the FX rate fluctuating and potential impact on the final sale price.

You could speculate the M3 may be cheaper, however, all the pundits are calling for a $0.70-$0.75 cent dollar by end of year.

 

[wayner]

[QUOTE="Black Rain, post: 2656454, member: 74335"You could speculate the M3 may be cheaper, however, all the pundits are calling for a $0.70-$0.75 cent dollar by end of year.[/QUOTE]If you want you can hedge that bet - if you have saved money to buy your Model 3 then you could convert it to USD now. Or you could buy some USD-CAD options or futures.

 

[Flexbomb]

I just called the ministry and they told me that there is no cap for the overall EVIP program? Can someone confirm?

 

[Black Rain]

I just called the ministry and they told me that there is no cap for the overall EVIP program? Can someone confirm?

Eligible Vehicles
To confirm if your vehicle is eligible for EHVIP and the amount of the incentive for which it qualifies, please refer to the EHVIP Eligible Vehicles List.

Please note that EVs with an MSRP of $75,000 or more are not eligible for an EHVIP incentive. This exclusion does not apply to HFCVs.

Incentive Amounts: EHVIP has the following parameters:
As of March 9, 2018, EHVIP provides the following incentives for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) with a Manufacturer's Suggested Retail Price (MSRP) less than $75,000 :

• $3,000 to $10,000 based on the EV’s all-electric range; plus
• $2,000 to $7,000 based on the EV’s seating capacity;

Up to a maximum of $14,000 per eligible EV.

Electric vehicles incentive program

 

[Flexbomb]

Eligible Vehicles
To confirm if your vehicle is eligible for EHVIP and the amount of the incentive for which it qualifies, please refer to the EHVIP Eligible Vehicles List.

Please note that EVs with an MSRP of $75,000 or more are not eligible for an EHVIP incentive. This exclusion does not apply to HFCVs.

Incentive Amounts: EHVIP has the following parameters:
As of March 9, 2018, EHVIP provides the following incentives for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) with a Manufacturer's Suggested Retail Price (MSRP) less than $75,000 :

• $3,000 to $10,000 based on the EV’s all-electric range; plus
• $2,000 to $7,000 based on the EV’s seating capacity;

Up to a maximum of $14,000 per eligible EV.

Electric vehicles incentive program

To Clairify, i meant Cap as the dollars allocated as per the CCAP program as Neo at the top of the page mentioned.

 

[tombar]

As per this Ontario government website: https://www.ontario.ca/page/ministers-climate-change-action-plan-progress-report-2017#section-7 it's pretty clear there is a funded allotment for EV rebate program, not endless funding

Electric Vehicle Incentive Program, MTO
The Electric Vehicle Incentive Program (EVIP) was established in 2010 to reduce the price gap between conventional gasoline vehicles and similar EV models. The EVIP provides financial support to buy or lease an EV.

MTO bases the incentive for each vehicle model on its battery and seating capacity.

Minister’s Evaluation
Additional Benefits of Initiative:

This initiative is expected to increase presence and purchasing of EV models in Ontario by making EVs more affordable and increase job creation through growing volume of EV model production in the automotive industry.

CCAP ‘Intended 5 Year Funding Range’: $140,000,000 0 $160,000,000

CCAP Alignment: CCAP Action Area 2.1 Transportation

Progress
Authorized Commitments (as of December 31, 2017): $47,000,000

Progress / Outcomes to Date:

From April to December 2017, MTO provided approximately 4,000 incentives.

Since the launch of EVIP in 2010, MTO has provided approximately 10,000 incentives.

 

[Black Rain]

To Clairify, i meant Cap as the dollars allocated as per the CCAP program as Neo at the top of the page mentioned.

LOL - sorry I miss read your email

 

[Tony_YYZ]

I called Tesla Sales again just to see what they have to say on the situation since everyone has been pressing for answers. They literally have a script ready to respond to questions about this. Same canned answer of "currently in review, please check the program website for updates"

 

[pdotnet]

I was at Yorkdale today and asked the same question, the guys I talked to there were clueless about it.

 

[Flexbomb]

So after calling the MPPs, calling the ministry of finance and looking at the numbers, decided to order the RWD.

I figured that if they killed the 14K, and if you factor in AWD, that's 22K that I could potentially lose out on. I'll just keep it a bit under wraps on the line during winter.

 

[Falcon3]

I just called the ministry and they told me that there is no cap for the overall EVIP program? Can someone confirm?

I also confirm. There is no cap so everybody relax. You’ll get your rebate. Just don’t vote PC lol

 

[McFlurri]

sigh.... im not going there again....

 

[ZooSean]

I also confirm. There is no cap so everybody relax. You’ll get your rebate. Just don’t vote PC lol

Yes. I will just vote Liberal then