Assuming Model 3 gets added to the list of eligible EVs, waiting further for those us how can order now and want the rebate
seems quite risky…
I did a quick analysis with publicly available information, so to help us Ontario folks ponder the risk of waiting and losing the 14K rebate – even should the Liberals get a majority (!).
- The rebate is part of the 2016-2020 Climate Change Action Plan. The plan indicates that 140M to 160M is being planned for the program beginning in 2017 up to 2020. That money is enough for 10,000 to 11,400 cars with a $14K rebate.
- Let’s try to estimate how much of this is already spent and how much is left. Let’s assume that for the five quarters since the plan has been in force (from January 1st 2017 to March 31st 2018), EV Sales in Ontario have been flat and equivalent to 2017-Q3 sales reported online here (simplifying assumption).
- Using the rebates in force for most of that period (until March 9th 2018 actually), I have calculated that EV Rebates granted sum up to approximately $116M or 73% of total program funding over those five quarters only. Highlight of my calculations
- In Q3 2017, 1872 EVs and BEV were sold, with an average EV rebate of $12,465 per vehicle, for a total of $23.3M.
- Using Q3-2017 as estimate, five quarters (from 01-2017 to 03-2018) gives $116.5M.
So,
it looks like the current EV program could end up being fully spent/ subscribed sometimes this spring/summer, especially with the early arrival of thousands of model 3 in Ontario and a jump in EV sales in Ontario. Therefore, those with the privilege of being able to order now show do so asap if they are serious about clinching the 14K rebate – no matter who they think will win on Election day June 7.
My 2 cents
Neo1974