Opinion: FSD, Why you should not buy it.

[azred]

If they did that, they'd likely issue refunds to those who paid more for FSD, which would negate most of that profit. I believe there is precedent to support this theory.

What precedent? Refunds? Ho ho ho.

You must be relatively new to Tesla. FSD pricing since 2016 initial sales has gone up and down numerous times. Of course many people think it is outrageous to cut pricing on what has been vaporware (unless you count features moved from old EAP to “new” FSD), but Tesla obviously doesn’t agree. So the 2.0 buyers who paid big bucks in Fall 2016 for FSD now sit at the back of the bus.

 

[daniel]

There's an implied assumption in the poll question. The assumption is that Tesla will develop true autonomy, and will do so before, or simultaneously with, other car makers. This assumption is by no means assured. The question asked is "Should you buy FSD now or wait for a discount?"

My answer is, I will wait until FSD actually exists. Then I'll buy it from whichever automaker sells an electric car that has it. I hope that's Tesla. I won't buy a gas car. How will you feel if you buy FSD from Tesla now, and then some other company comes out with FSD three years before Tesla? I love my Model 3, but Tesla's refusal to consider adding more sensors, possibly including lidar, makes me less confident that Tesla will win this race.

If you buy FSD now, you are betting that Tesla will achieve FSD, and you are betting that some other company won't achieve FSD substantially before Tesla, leaving you out several thousand dollars and nothing to show for it. By waiting, I will have to pay more, but I'll get a car with the latest and best hardware, not one jury-rigged to work with the sensors they thought would be adequate in 2018.

 

[Matsayz]

There's an implied assumption in the poll question. The assumption is that Tesla will develop true autonomy, and will do so before, or simultaneously with, other car makers. This assumption is by no means assured. The question asked is "Should you buy FSD now or wait for a discount?"

My answer is, I will wait until FSD actually exists. Then I'll buy it from whichever automaker sells an electric car that has it. I hope that's Tesla. I won't buy a gas car. How will you feel if you buy FSD from Tesla now, and then some other company comes out with FSD three years before Tesla? I love my Model 3, but Tesla's refusal to consider adding more sensors, possibly including lidar, makes me less confident that Tesla will win this race.

If you buy FSD now, you are betting that Tesla will achieve FSD, and you are betting that some other company won't achieve FSD substantially before Tesla, leaving you out several thousand dollars and nothing to show for it. By waiting, I will have to pay more, but I'll get a car with the latest and best hardware, not one jury-rigged to work with the sensors they thought would be adequate in 2018.

Or you could just wait for flying cars.

 

[Sunshine Speed]

Definitely get autopilot. Buy FSD only if you will own the exact same car for at least 4 years. If there is any chance that you will trade or sell the car in 2 years then don't get FSD, it's too expensive. Look back at the last few cars you owned, did you keep them for 4+ years? Very useful FSD features will definitely be here in 3 years. Possibly much sooner. FSD was $6K before, now it's $7K. What does that say?

 

[jfinephilly]

Elon Musk stated that it will “increase substantially over time.”



For business-minded people, "perfected" means you can let your robotaxi pickup customers on its own while you collect the money when you are at work or in bed sleeping.



I think its best feature is Auto Lane Change. It is well worth the $7,000 to me!

Musk says a lot of things. Don’t chug the koolaid.

 

[Kevy Baby]

Blah,,, you are buying vaporware.

No, you are buying sophisticated software that does a few impressive things (NoAP, Lane Changes, Summon, Auto Park, etc.) but is not yet developed to its full promise/potential.
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For myself, I will bite if they do a sale on it for around $3K but I doubt they ever will again. I usually hold on to my cars for 5-7+ years, so I don't mind investing in it up front (such as I did with my Reus Audio system)

 

[SlimJim]

anyone who asks should not buy it.
it's like a guy asking if he should buy a rolex.

 

[BEPA400]

I've got to say, I'm perplexed by your response. It is not MY business sense, it is general business knowledge that if you can capture additional profit with little to no downside, then you should. The thing you are clearly missing with all of your Tourettes like comments and sentences is that Tesla is transforming into a real company, not just a billionaires brainchild, which really must make a profit.

I love Tesla and everything it stands for, not only do I think they are succeeding now but I am confident they'll continue to do so for a long long time. I was simply justifying the option to wait on FSD instead of buying it today but I am happy that you are completely satisfied with your choice!

what is general business sense anyways? Is it what drove Monsanto? Is it what drives banks? Is it what drives your company? Is it what drives Tesla? They all have different things as their first priority. If yours is just straight money, and to hell with anything else, then yes it’s a black and white discussion, don’t buy it now. You’re probably right that it’ll be cheaper at some point in the future some people for some reason or another.
Your opinion that this is a reason ‘people’ in general should not buy it is you projecting your priorities in life and in business on other people. It’s your opinion so that’s fine, and it’s fine for me to find fault in it too, right?

 

[Gize]

To the OP, I kind of have the same question. I am waiting for delivery with FSD but am considering dropping it. I am the type that really likes new technology etc and would get such a kick out of summon when working halfway decent, but I am starting to wonder if it's worth it.

I would not put it out of question that FSD drops in price at some point but Elon did say it will only go up and shortly after raised it to 7k, so he might be trying to make a point now. Especially if more new features keep dropping like stop sign and traffic light recognition. FSD used to be more after delivery, but now it's the same before and after, so I may just order without it and if I miss it too much I'll order it.

And finally, thank you to the few of you that bought it and admitted that you regret it, your honesty really does help me make my decision. I was thinking everyone that already paid for it would get offended by this thread because they already paid what they did and would shutter the thought of someone getting it cheaper and start attacking.

Having said all that, FSD is still in my order and I am still on the fence.

 

[mswlogo]

It probably doesn't make much business sense to buy a Tesla, but you (we all) did that
I bought EAP and FSD for $5K (I think) in 2018 for Model 3 with HW2.5 and bought FSD on Model X Raven (with HW3) for $6K

If "FSD" nets one safety feature that saves me a fender bender or worse it more than pays for itself.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

Nothing is happening for at least 6 months so there is no rush.

 

[Tam]

...I was simply justifying the option to wait on FSD instead of buying it today...

Prudent consumers should demand proof of quality before paying for FSD.

Paying for FSD without proof that robotaxis have been making money while owners are sleeping night means paying for a hope.

Many people do pay for products that have not proven such as the 3-wheeled Elio Motors Scooter from crowfunding in 2014 but you can kiss it goodbye!

Since FSD is not a proven product, it is not a prudent consumer purchase but rather, a speculative investment.

I myself bought FSD not as an investment but as a ticket for early access to an unproven technology.

 

[holmgang]

anyone who asks should not buy it.
it's like a guy asking if he should buy a rolex.

Rolexes are known quantities. You know what it does, what it doesn't do.

FSD is still a pipe dream. TACC and Autosteer is already fraught with errors now, so there's no way I'd pay today for something that promises to work tomorrow.

I'll let shareholders of the public float invest in the technology.

 

[jfinephilly]

anyone who asks should not buy it.
it's like a guy asking if he should buy a rolex.

Kind of elitist, no?

 

[Spacep0d]

I like I'm sure most of you consider myself a techy. I love new technology which is a big reason, albeit not the only one, that I bought a Tesla. However, I am also a business person so when I see Full Self Driving offered for $7000 I am first excited, then my business side kicks in. My thoughts are as follows:

1. FSD is not ready and really doesn't give you much for $7000 as of this writing.
2. All Tesla cars produced since around Q2 2019 have the same FSD hardware.
3. You can upgrade to FSD later via a software update.

Now Tesla and skeptics will tell you that the price of FSD is going to rise as it improves, so if you don't pay now you will pay more in the long run. My business sense is telling me differently. Let's assume for a second that 50% of Tesla cars produced since Q2 2019 were ordered with FSD and 50% without. In addition, to keep the math simple, let's assume Tesla delivers 500,000 cars from Q2 2019 through Q2 2020. This would mean that around 250,000 cars received the upgraded FSD hardware but the customer did not pay for it. More importantly, that means 250,000 people have the option to pay for the ability to take advantage of FSD and in turn pad Tesla's bottom line without "any" additional cost. At $7000 per upgrade, this would net $1.75 Billion dollars in CASH. Obviously, not everyone is willing to pay $7000 for the feature even if it is perfected. In fact, many people probably wouldn't if the price were cut by a few thousand dollars but there is no doubt that the lower the price the more willing people will become. With that said it is on Tesla to do the analysis to determine at what price point they can capture the most revenue but to me, it is a no brainer that they will offer the upgrade to current owners at a discounted rate at some point in the future. Based on my hypothetical numbers, if they drop the price to $4000 and everyone takes the offer, they will net $1 billion dollars pure profit. Not a small sum, especially since it all goes to the bottom line.

The initial cost for a Tesla Model 3 (the car I'm getting in about 3 months) is somewhat high, even for the middle model or Long Range version. FSD adds 7k that I can defer until later. Some say we will pay more, but what I want to do is keep the barrier to entry as low as possible. Considering that, I'm glad Tesla allowed us to skip this.

What I would prefer is to be able to select Summon Mode and Self-Parking and skip everything else, maybe for a lower cost. I don't plan to use Autopilot but I would use these features.

Also, there are good reasons to wait as Autopilot is perfected. I'd rather drive and park on my own and put 2k toward an acceleration boost.

Look what happened with the acceleration boost itself. This is now a 2K option for Long Range AWD owners, where before people paid a premium for the Performance model to get the best acceleration or performance. Given that, it stands to reason that the cost of FSD will come down, especially based on your point about a free cash inflow for Tesla if they just lower the price a bit to capture more late-adopters (especially as the tech improves).

It's also in Tesla's interest to have more people adopt AP/FSD to bug-test it, make it ubiquitous, get people to trust it more, and it adds value to the Tesla brand. So, I think it's reasonable to guess that Tesla might lower the price on this at some point in the future, or at least not raise it by much.

Either way, I like driving, but I do hope Tesla allows us to purchase just the summon and self-parking feature later before we go all in on FSD. Tesla could also make some money here by letting people sneak up on adoption of FSD for useful features before going whole hog on FSD.

 

[timk225]

I don't go with this whole idea of "Pay $7000 now or more later". I'll call their bluff and pay NOTHING. Eventually they'll come off this whole $7000 thing when they see that enough people like me aren't going for it.

First of all, FSD isn't ready, and even if it were, would I get $7000 worth of value out of it over my Base AP? I don't think so. The other features like NOA wouldn't be used enough to make it worthwhile to me.

The only thing I'd like to have that I don't have now is the auto lane change with the turn signal, but I am not paying $7000, or even $1000 for that.

If someone at Tesla wanted to get my money, they'd offer me the turn signal lane changes as an addon to my Base AP for $300-$500, I might pay that much for it. And I think a lot of people would agree with that.

But as Tesla continues to have good financial quarters, and start having more billions of cash on hand, they will not need to scrape up every nickel and dime they can get as much anymore. Unlike when I got my Base AP for $2000 back in the early March 2019 sale that lasted a week or so.

 

[iaflyer]

No, you are buying sophisticated software that does a few impressive things (NoAP, Lane Changes, Summon, Auto Park, etc.) but is not yet developed to its full promise/potential.
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For myself, I will bite if they do a sale on it for around $3K but I doubt they ever will again. I usually hold on to my cars for 5-7+ years, so I don't mind investing in it up front (such as I did with my Reus Audio system)

My EAP already does those things, I really don't see the need to pay more for FSD.

 

[Ramona48]

For me, I paid the $6k when I bought and do not regret it. I am young (75) and I find that I really like being able to drive for hours only using my blinkers. And that is only because I do not trust lane change. Driving in commute is a breeze except to watch for folks jumping my lane. I do not think the car will ever become truly self driving outside of big cities but I bought it as an aide. Being able to drive on my own for a few extra years is well worth $6k.

 

[ewoodrick]

Man, I wish I could trust it enough to use Auto Lane Change.

To me, that's the one part of Autopilot that is pretty close to rock solid. Once they sped up the process in December, I'm starting to catch myself not even looking.

 

[daniel]

... Very useful FSD features will definitely be here in 3 years. Possibly much sooner.

Definitely? Are you psychic that you know the future? The above statement is a matter of opinion that some people share and others do not, but which is an opinion, not a "definite" fact, as nobody knows the future.

FSD was $6K before, now it's $7K. What does that say?

It says that Tesla hopes that by raising the price they will lure people in to buy, out of a fear that the price will continue to rise.