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Phantom Braking

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That’s just it - for evidence of the problem we have large numbers of reports, the fact that I haven’t seen anyone, even ardent Tesla supporters state that they never have a problem, and the fact that every Tesla owner I’ve spoken to in person has said they have issues with PB. All the evidence points to it being the majority of owners. I’m not saying this is conclusive scientific evidence but when you say you have no contrary evidence at all and all the evidence I do have suggests the majority do have issues then my conclusion is hardly a ‘wild assertion.’

You’re free to say ‘I disagree because…’ or even to say ‘I don’t think it’s a majority but I don’t have any evidence to back it up,’ but to say I have no credibility but then say you have no evidence is bewildering.

"A faulty generalization is an informal fallacy wherein a conclusion is drawn about all or many instances of a phenomenon on the basis of one or a few instances of that phenomenon. It is similar to a proof by example in mathematics.[1] It is an example of jumping to conclusions.[2] For example, one may generalize about all people or all members of a group, based on what one knows about just one or a few people."

Anecdotal evidence is real, but inconclusive. Even if you surveyed 100,000 owners that experienced PB, that amounts to less than 5% of the Teslas on the road. No one suggested that your sweeping statement was incorrect; rather, you were being taken to task for making an unsubstantiated claim.
 
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If you consider the conditions under which things like Cruise Control are typically used, I think that would naturally limit the chance of accidents caused by phantom braking and frankly find it surprising there have been significant numbers of accidents caused by it in the case of the Honda investigation or any others. However, the NHTSA lacking recorded accidents in this case doesn't mean they don't exist, and they had asked Tesla for data around any related accidents they might be aware of.

And of course the NHTSA doesn't want to act after accidents have happened, they want to be proactive and head the problem off because the probability of occurrence is a function of time and miles of exposure -- the Honda investigation applies to a whopping 1.7million vehicles going back to 2017 while the investigation into Tesla's phantom braking started off with a third of the vehicles beginning with the 2021 model year.


Put enough miles on the road with these events occurring and eventually there will be a time when it happens while someone is on the highway following closely enough as the system reacts strongly enough to cause a fender bender. I can't even recall an instance where I've been followed that closely for any length of time while travelling at highway speeds, but it probably happens daily to at least 1 out of 1.7million vehicles.
 
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I drove 1300 miles last week on interstates with no phantom braking incidents. That's a huge improvement over the last few


I had at lot of FB events on a 400-mile Interstate drive yesterday. Scary as hell.
Then I adjusted the following distance from 3 car lengths to 7 car lengths (max) and it stopped happening. I can live with 7 car lengths at 80MPH. Any closer is dangerous anyway.

Why can’t the car automatically adjust following distance for speed?

2022 Model 3
 
That’s just it - for evidence of the problem we have large numbers of reports, the fact that I haven’t seen anyone, even ardent Tesla supporters state that they never have a problem, and the fact that every Tesla owner I’ve spoken to in person has said they have issues with PB. All the evidence points to it being the majority of owners. I’m not saying this is conclusive scientific evidence but when you say you have no contrary evidence at all and all the evidence I do have suggests the majority do have issues then my conclusion is hardly a ‘wild assertion.’

You’re free to say ‘I disagree because…’ or even to say ‘I don’t think it’s a majority but I don’t have any evidence to back it up,’ but to say I have no credibility but then say you have no evidence is bewildering.
No it doesnt, unless you have an unbiased sample you have proved nothing. If i go to a hospital and ask patients “are you sick?” I can “prove” that the vast majority of humans are sick, which is nonsense. This is what you are claiming for PB and when anyone counters you your response is to point at a few examples and claim that proves a majority, when it does no such thing. Sans evidence your majority claim has no validity, and i will rest my case here.
 
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I so wish Tesla provided the option to just use dumb cruise control. I wonder if this thread would even exist if that were the case. My car has exhibited phantom braking since its birth in 06/2018. I don’t really care if the majority, a minority, all, or just me experience this. I don’t care if other manufacturers’ vehicles exhibit this, their frequency, or degree. For me, it was originally frightening, now that’s reduced to very annoying each and every time. Hate it.
 
I had at lot of FB events on a 400-mile Interstate drive yesterday. Scary as hell.
Then I adjusted the following distance from 3 car lengths to 7 car lengths (max) and it stopped happening. I can live with 7 car lengths at 80MPH. Any closer is dangerous anyway.

Why can’t the car automatically adjust following distance for speed?

2022 Model 3
It does. From the manual: "Each setting corresponds to a time-based distance that represents how long it takes for Model 3, from its current location, to reach the location of the rear bumper of the vehicle ahead of you.".
 
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Then I adjusted the following distance from 3 car lengths to 7 car lengths (max) and it stopped happening. I can live with 7 car lengths at 80MPH. Any closer is dangerous anyway.

Why can’t the car automatically adjust following distance for speed?
This is a misconception. The setting for the distance to the car in front is not actually car lengths. It is a time measure, just as you want.

Setting 7 means approximately 2.5 seconds. It can get lower temporarily, as TACC adjusts to the traffic in front. And it gets higher at very low speeds, obviously.
 
Apologies if this has already been discussed - this thread is huge - but I wonder how much of a factor location plays in which cars and how often PB events are experienced?

To throw more anecdotal evidence on the fire, I purchased my car while living in Las Vegas and spent 14 months driving it there before moving to Colorado. I’ve been driving it in Colorado for the past 11 months.

While in Vegas I can’t recall a single PB or slow down event I experienced, and AP/FSD worked very well on the wide, mostly new, and well-marked roads and highways. There are also very few road repairs made, the pavement type and color are extremely consistent throughout Vegas.

Now in Colorado, the slow down events are numerous and repeatable on many roads. I have noticed that the vast majority are experienced on single-lane roads where expansion joint repairs have been made resulting in strips of darker pavement snaking across lighter pavement. Conditions that just didn’t exist in Vegas.

I’ve never had what I would consider a PB event, where the car has gone into full-on panic braking. I deal with constant slow downs of 5-10mph. I always have my foot on the accelerator to immediately counter these events, so I can’t say exactly how much the car wants to slow down, but it’s more of a comfort issue than a safety issue in my case.

While in Vegas I was very impressed with AP/FSD performance. I rarely use either in Colorado save for major multi-lane highways due to much poorer performance of both here. I have had two very distinct AP/FSD experiences based on driving it regularly in two different locations, and my opinion of its performance has changed accordingly.
 
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While in Vegas I was very impressed with AP/FSD performance. I rarely use either in Colorado save for major multi-lane highways due to much poorer performance of both here. I have had two very distinct AP/FSD experiences based on driving it regularly in two different locations, and my opinion of its performance has changed accordingly.
Thanks for the info. You didn't specify, are you talking AP with FSD preview, or FSD beta?
 
You’re free to say ‘I disagree because…’ or even to say ‘I don’t think it’s a majority but I don’t have any evidence to back it up,’ but to say I have no credibility but then say you have no evidence is bewildering.
It should not be bewildering. You dont seem to understand the accepted burden of proof here. When someone makes a claim, it is for them to provide evidence to backup that claim. If a claim is not substantiated by evidence then it is unproven, and is, until supporting evidence is available, simple speculation. This is not necessarily bad in and of itself, many scientific (and other) claims begin life as speculative musings. Your claim of "the majority of Tesla owners experiencing PB" might be true. But until evidence to back that up is available, it is speculation.

The problem occurs when someone presents speculations as if they were claims backed up by evidence, but then fails to provide that evidence. This is bad since it can lead those who are unwary to accept as facts things that are very far from being so. This trick is often used by those who wish to push a personal agenda, since it is a subtle form of an appeal to authority (which, unless used very carefully, is a fallacy, see Climate Change Denial). Worse, when challenged, a common follow-up trick is to say "Well, if you dont agree with me, than prove I am wrong." When no such proof is forthcoming the final trick is to sit back and say "Told you so, this shows I am right." Both these tricks are totally invalid. The first because it is a fallacious attempt to shift the burden of proof, the second because it is often impossible to prove a negative.

When someone makes a very bold claim, then fails to back it up with evidence, and then uses fallacious tricks such as the above to try to push that claim, then yes, that person loses credibility. But note that such loss of credibility has no bearing on the validity of the original claim, which remains unproven and thus speculation. It might still be true, but without evidence no-one knows either way.

You seem to think that my saying "You have not provided any evidence that the majority of owners experience PB" is the same as my saying "You are wrong, the majority of owners do NOT see PB". This second statement, had I said it, would indeed have been a claim, and I would indeed have needed to provide some form of supporting evidence. But at no point did I say that. I simply stated you have not substantiated your claim. And I am not required to provide evidence of that, since the burden of proof is with the claimant.

Put simply, I stated that your claim is in fact simple speculation because it is unsubstantiated by supporting evidence. Your response with examples of PB events is not evidence for your claim. Examples of PB events are support of a claim that "Some drivers experience PB events", which I have never denied. But "some drivers" is not the same as " the majority of drivers", so pointing to individual examples is not evidence for your claim.
 
It should not be bewildering. You dont seem to understand the accepted burden of proof here. When someone makes a claim, it is for them to provide evidence to backup that claim. If a claim is not substantiated by evidence then it is unproven, and is, until supporting evidence is available, simple speculation. This is not necessarily bad in and of itself, many scientific (and other) claims begin life as speculative musings. Your claim of "the majority of Tesla owners experiencing PB" might be true. But until evidence to back that up is available, it is speculation.

It is not necessary to disprove a conclusion rooted in a logical fallacy. Making broad claims based only on anecdotal evidence is always inappropriate.

However, I submit that the percentages are irrelevant to the discussion of how "dangerous" the PB effect might be. NHTSA has previous compelled safety recalls that impacted merely hundreds of drivers, let alone thousands, and I think we can all agree that PB has met this threshold. If PB is determined to be hazardous, then NHTSA will undoubtedly seek a recall, even if the number of drivers affected is small.

I mean, we got a recall for pinched fingers lol
 
NHTSA has previous compelled safety recalls that impacted merely hundreds of drivers, let alone thousands, and I think we can all agree that PB has met this threshold. If PB is determined to be hazardous

As a famous spartan once said... If.



I agree that if that happens they'd require action. But as pointed out there continues to be literally 0 actual evidence supporting such a claim.

Even the "proposed class action" was entirely speculative as to harm caused and presented no examples of any actual accident or injury, ever, from this.
 
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However, I submit that the percentages are irrelevant to the discussion of how "dangerous" the PB effect might be. NHTSA has previous compelled safety recalls that impacted merely hundreds of drivers, let alone thousands, and I think we can all agree that PB has met this threshold. If PB is determined to be hazardous, then NHTSA will undoubtedly seek a recall, even if the number of drivers affected is small.
To an extent, I agree, but this is not pinched fingers. Tesla could "fix" PB overnight be disabling all the AEB features. But that of course would potentially make many future accidents occur that could have been avoided by AEB. Ideally, Tesla could fix PB without impacting actual AEB events, but few things are ever ideal. So it will always come down to balance, and the NHTSA and Tesla are going to have to work very hard on figuring out what that balance should be.
 
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"A faulty generalization is an informal fallacy wherein a conclusion is drawn about all or many instances of a phenomenon on the basis of one or a few instances of that phenomenon. It is similar to a proof by example in mathematics.[1] It is an example of jumping to conclusions.[2] For example, one may generalize about all people or all members of a group, based on what one knows about just one or a few people."

Anecdotal evidence is real, but inconclusive. Even if you surveyed 100,000 owners that experienced PB, that amounts to less than 5% of the Teslas on the road. No one suggested that your sweeping statement was incorrect; rather, you were being taken to task for making an unsubstantiated claim.
I understand that, however my point was there is no evidence to the contrary and as I explained in a previous post, statistically it makes it quite likely. If, as you say, I surveyed 100,000 owners then one could say “that still doesn’t prove anything because there are 1.5 million Teslas on the road.“ Again, there has been no evidence to the contrary.

No it doesnt, unless you have an unbiased sample you have proved nothing. If i go to a hospital and ask patients “are you sick?” I can “prove” that the vast majority of humans are sick, which is nonsense. This is what you are claiming for PB and when anyone counters you your response is to point at a few examples and claim that proves a majority, when it does no such thing. Sans evidence your majority claim has no validity, and i will rest my case here.
Thank you! I disagree that my evidence is biased but that’s fine.

It should not be bewildering. You dont seem to understand the accepted burden of proof here. When someone makes a claim, it is for them to provide evidence to backup that claim.
Ah, but I have given some evidence. I agree that it is not like a survey of all Tesla owners but you have provided no counter evidence. That is my point. If my evidence is truly as weak as you state then it should be trivial to counter it. I’m perfectly wiling to accept that PB doesn’t happen in a majority of Teslas but I have seen zero evidence that would support that. (closer to the topic of this thread, I would not be willing to accept the claim that it’s not a problem.
Put simply, I stated that your claim is in fact simple speculation because it is unsubstantiated by supporting evidence. Your response with examples of PB events is not evidence for your claim. Examples of PB events are support of a claim that "Some drivers experience PB events", which I have never denied. But "some drivers" is not the same as " the majority of drivers", so pointing to individual examples is not evidence for your claim.
As I said, the reason I jumped from ‘some’ to ‘the majority’ was the fact that out of the hundreds of people I’ve seen here on TMC as well or talked to in person every one of them has experienced phantom braking. At that point the statistical likelihood that it’s just a fluke drops signficantly.

Regardless, I doubt we will ever agree on this.
 
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To an extent, I agree, but this is not pinched fingers. Tesla could "fix" PB overnight be disabling all the AEB features. But that of course would potentially make many future accidents occur that could have been avoided by AEB. Ideally, Tesla could fix PB without impacting actual AEB events, but few things are ever ideal. So it will always come down to balance, and the NHTSA and Tesla are going to have to work very hard on figuring out what that balance should be.
I‘m not so sure Tesla could fix PB overnight. Several months back I experimented with disabling all AEB and safety features for a week. PB events were decreased but definitely not eliminated.

As I’ve said before, though, I think a reason Tesla seems to suffer significantly more from this than any other maker is because they are trying design a fully autonomous system. As such, features like AEB move from a backup, aiding the driver by catching the cases s/he misses to a primary system, responsible for catching all of the cases without the driver. You go from 2 layers of Swiss cheese to just one…
 
I just returned from a ~1100 mile trip over the last weekend in my new Model Y with plain AP. Tons of phantom braking events, to the point I considered it entirely unusable on 2-lane roads, and marginally unusable on divided highways without significant shoulders. This was significantly worse than either of our radar-equipped Model Xs were, even though they definitely had issues.

What was causing it for me, at least some of the time, was the misinterpretation of posts on the side of the road as pedestrians in the distance. The visualization would flicker a pedestrian and the car would slam on the brakes. I'm not talking about sign posts, just short posts without tops.

It's pretty frustrating and definitely keeps the adrenal gland exercised.
 
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I am more interested in why phantom braking happens than how often it happens. To that end I have set up a camera to record both the view forward, and the car screen. I need to be looking at the road when I am driving, so the camera allows me to see what was displayed on the cars screen when a slowdown happens. Here is an example from today: Phantom braking example
The blue line gets very blurry a very short distance in front of the car. My guess is that the shadows confused the car.
 
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