You've essentially just framed the need for an entire battery upgrade industry for out of warranty cars.
I think you're right that out-of-warranty cars will indeed be swapping batteries around. Extra batteries will be on the market from wrecked vehicles, and out-of-warranty vehicle owners may want to upgrade or replace a heavily degraded pack. So there will be a market. The question is, what will Tesla do when those cars come in for non-warranty service? If the pack has been changed, even to an identical part number thus requiring no firmware modifications, do they turn it away and refuse to work on it? And if so, who will work on it, given that Tesla will (currently) only allow 3rd-party body shops, not 3rd-party drive system and battery work?
I think for the next few years while M3 is rolling out the answer is they won't touch it. SCs are hammered now before they start building tons of M3's. But a few years down the line when they have the new car servicing down pat I can see them doing this themselves or billing shop rates to help people do swaps. If you have idle techs, why not put them to work and make some money?
If it was 25k new, I'd rather pay for a new pack, and keep my old one. I could get a good fraction of that pack in the used market, if not just finding another use for the cells. Everyone that has ever tried has apparently been told they cannot keep their old pack.
Exactly. So what changed? Perhaps the diameter of the cell bond wire? Looks the same (from the picture). Perhaps the quality of the weld.
I don't see an issue with that, but why would they sell a new pack at only slightly over the parting out value? I'm just questioning the $25k price. Seams Tesla can get a better return on their investment putting the batteries into cars, power walls, and power packs.
Thanks @wk057 , this is awesome. 2 quick questions: - any idea why they made the HV connection incompatible and requiring an adapter part? - given the increase in amperage, have you verified that the HV wiring in the 85/90 cars is of adequate size?
I'll try to get to some questions tomorrow. Beat tonight... was busy putting this 100 kWh pack to good use.
According to the Manual P100D weighs 100lbs more than P90D. Assuming that individual battery cell weighs about 48g, additional cells in P100D add about 90lbs.
I'd question that price outright. 8 year warranty starts expiring in 3 years. Which means Tesla has only 3 years to reach $12k replacement cost on a 85 pack. That prediction was without the gigafactory, and without the gigafactory coming to scale production years before originally stated. The cost for a 100kWh pack should start approaching $10k by 2020.
Unfortunately, Tesla can charge whatever they want for battery upgrades regardless of pack/production costs. However, I'd still like to see an official replacement program. And once they stabilize prices with the gigafactory, we just might. It makes more sense that way since you don't have a such a huge disparity in cell costs from year to year.
I think if they put up replacement prices it would ease many customers concerns. At this point if a battery fails out of warranty customers have no idea what a replacement could cost. Also a compatibility guide would be great so that customers with lets say an existing customers 85 or 90 batteries would know if they could upgrade to a 100 down the line at some point.