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[POLL] CA Current owners ONLY. Have you received your config invite yet?
- Thread starter insaneoctane
- Start date
Seeing any good estimates for when III deliveries will begin to non-owners and/or non-CA owners?
My best guess is they will have to start going out of CA as soon as they begin seriously exceeding 2,000 cars per week produced. With two main delivery centers (and assuming they can deliver about 10 cars per hour, for about 15 hours a day), and with all deliveries I've read about at least going through one of those... they should be able to deliver about 2,100 cars per week in CA alone (150 x 2 x 7).
My best guess is they will have to start going out of CA as soon as they begin seriously exceeding 2,000 cars per week produced. With two main delivery centers (and assuming they can deliver about 10 cars per hour, for about 15 hours a day), and with all deliveries I've read about at least going through one of those... they should be able to deliver about 2,100 cars per week in CA alone (150 x 2 x 7).
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There were a couple posts suggesting end of Jan for wide non owner invites. I might be reading in to much into unreliable source on info.
There were a couple posts suggesting end of Jan for wide non owner invites. I might be reading in to much into unreliable source on info.
CuriousG
Active Member
Just got a call today to confirm delivery in about a week. Needs to be shipped to Rocklin and detailed. Configured on December 14th.
Is the poll still accurate? Based on the spreadsheet that is linked on the site, it seems as though almost all california owners have gotten their invites. I am an owner based in the bay area (who reserved online on 3/31) and my estimated delivery is still in Jan/Mar. Would appear that my delivery estimator seems late compared to other owners.
I am beginning to question this poll. I am afraid that many of the "no" votes are not updating their answer and we really don't have any accountability. The spreadsheet is at least helpful to see if someone drops out of contact. 
No. I’m a CA owner reserved in store 3/31. No invite. I have a service appt next week. Going to inquire. WTH?I am beginning to question this poll. I am afraid that many of the "no" votes are not updating their answer and we really don't have any accountability. The spreadsheet is at least helpful to see if someone drops out of contact.
Pinot.Noir
Member
I am beginning to question this poll. I am afraid that many of the "no" votes are not updating their answer and we really don't have any accountability. The spreadsheet is at least helpful to see if someone drops out of contact.
According to everything I've seen, only people who reserved on 3/31 have gotten an invite. I'd have to assume some owners on this forum reserved after that. For example, I reserved in May of this year and have yet to get an invite.
Justin
Pinot.Noir
Member
Good point. There are various factors in play no doubt. I just wish it made more sense. It would be good if Tesla would just announce their methods...even if some people disagree, at least everybody knows where they stand.
Was thinking about this last night, and the problem as I see it is that if they tell people how they're picking, they'll have to deal with 1. People trying to game it and 2. it reduces flexibility and increases whining and shouting from people like me if they deviate from it. I don't like the black box at all but I kinda get it.
Back in the days of the dinosaurs, if I took my car in for an oil change and they told me it would be ready in an hour but it actually took them an hour and a half, I was upset. But if they told me it would be ready in two hours, and it was actually ready in an hour and a half, I was delighted. If they told me "It will be ready when it's ready," and they refused to even give me an estimate, I'd probably not go there again.
I think the biggest thing Tesla could do to improve its overall image would be to figure out realistic time lines, then add 10% or 25% when they make the promises. The delays have been unpredictable, but that there would be delays is always predictable, because nothing will ever go exactly to plan.
Not knowing, being kept in the dark, is the worst thing. When my window was Jan-Mar I figured I'd probably get my car in June, because of Tesla's record of delays. Then they changed my window to Dec-Feb, and I got hopeful that maybe I'd get my car in May. Now it looks as though maybe I'll get my car in July, even though they have not changed my window in response to the slower-than-expected recovery from "production hell."
As the song says, "Don't make no promises you can't keep." I want Tesla to take all the time it takes to get this car right. But I don't want them to give me false hope by promising a delivery date that's half a year before any realistic hope of the actual delivery.
I think the biggest thing Tesla could do to improve its overall image would be to figure out realistic time lines, then add 10% or 25% when they make the promises. The delays have been unpredictable, but that there would be delays is always predictable, because nothing will ever go exactly to plan.
Not knowing, being kept in the dark, is the worst thing. When my window was Jan-Mar I figured I'd probably get my car in June, because of Tesla's record of delays. Then they changed my window to Dec-Feb, and I got hopeful that maybe I'd get my car in May. Now it looks as though maybe I'll get my car in July, even though they have not changed my window in response to the slower-than-expected recovery from "production hell."
As the song says, "Don't make no promises you can't keep." I want Tesla to take all the time it takes to get this car right. But I don't want them to give me false hope by promising a delivery date that's half a year before any realistic hope of the actual delivery.
CuriousG
Active Member
That was quick. Got another call that car is ready for delivery. Scheduled 10am tomorrow morning.
Scrith
Member
I received an invitation to configure this morning (current owner of a Model X, reserved online on 4/1/2016, live in the SF Bay Area about 10 miles from Fremont).
I mean, given that happiness = reality - expectations that is pretty much what Tesla, or anyone for that matter should do, manage expectations.
That being said, I think what they are doing right now is kinda inadvertently brilliant. There are real deliveries, there is a real ramp, but it's not enough to satisfy people, so you clamor for more, and it makes the anticipation greater, while not really driving anyone away.
The other thing is though, people forget that they have as much control over the expectations part of the happiness equation as the person trying to set it. I think any realistic view of all the damn photos of the cars being moved in the parking lot thread, the experiences of people consistently saying there are like 10 model 3's on display at a time at the Marina Del Rey facility, should give people a more grounded realization of 1) a thousand cars looks like a lot of but is a little in the grand scheme of 400k+ orders, 2) holy balls there are 400k+ orders. This isn't some quick or easy process. Even if I could wave a wand just to produce everyone's Model 3 car to their liking with the catch of them only existing in Fremont and needing to ship to everyone. It would take not days, not weeks, but months to ship all of that.
Another line snap (this time with history):
Code:
DATE % NO
01/04 43.4%
12/22 51.3%
12/15 63.4%Still, with lots of invites going out now to non-CA owners, I would think the CA owners should be mostly taken care of, so this poll is probably no longer updating...
Seems to me that we need a new poll thread for all USA owners. I wonder how long it will take to get through all of the existing owners. I suspect just 3 or 4 weeks before non-owners start getting config invites.
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