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Poll: When will FSD V12 be in wide release?
- Thread starter Terminator857
- Start date
I agree with you.
Although Musk’s 6 months quote in Aug was originally thought to mean no FSD for HW4 cars for six months, that wasn’t true and obviously he instead meant no v12 for HW4 vehicles until 6 months after HW3 vehicles. So no V12 for the new truck either for six months or so after they have HW3 cars figured out on v12. Of course that assumes Musk knew what he was predicting in August
dbldwn02
Active Member
I'm still on 10.69.3.3, so my bet is definitely on >2025 since V11 isn't even in "wide-release" yet.
Just a prediction based on past releases. No inside info.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Here's a reminder.
End of 2021 : Elon says he wanted to release V11 with holiday update but is delayed.
8-March-2023 : V11 is finally released
So, that was a 15 month delay. If we go by the same token - we should see V12 in 2025 March or later. Afterall V12 is a bigger leap from V11 than V11 was from V10.
ps : I should note though that ... a lot of the features intended for V11 were released earlier in 10.x releases. Esp., 10.69.x
Looking at TeslaFi numbers, greater than 99.9% of vehicles with FSD beta software are on some 11.x. Would updating MCU1 vehicles to reach over 99.95% only then be considered wide-release for you? But yes there are also plenty of people still waiting for 11.x including those who got the camera retrofit or are outside North America, so hopefully 12.x will speed things up to be actually wide release.
dbldwn02
Active Member
Damn...only 7 out of 19,271 cars are running the same software as me now??? It's been a while since I looked. I'm going for #1!
But "MCU version has no relation to FSD version...MCU HW and APE HW are completely different" Or at least that's what the Stans say.
Also, I thought there were still some late camera upgraders that still haven't received ANY form of FSD-B yet. It happened when Tesla started the FSD software recall thing a year ago. I haven't been on the forums in a while so that could be old infos.
Consider the demand for Tesla Software talent this season.
1) Dojo coming online since August. Maybe mostly implemented in October/November?
Getting massively parallel software to scale and access all the video as planned is likely very hard.
2) Version 12 FSD is a large code upgrade to Version 11. I’ve noticed FSDbeta skills dropping in the 11.4.x series. This has got to be requiring lots of parameter changes and code revisions. Then there is the simulation testing. Time consuming.
3) The Cybertruck is a new set of hardware with likely different camera sight lines. How do they impact Autopilot and FSD Version 11/12.? There is a hard deadline of November 30th for this completion.
4) Then there is the annual Christmas update. Just another complication at this time in 2023….
5) Voice commands and in vehicle Tesla AI Grok.
Lots of work, interacting schedules and the same resources as before…
Likely priority on issue 3, followed by issue 1 then issue 2 and maybe issue 4 is punted into 2024? Issue 5 is just a huge unknown.
1) Dojo coming online since August. Maybe mostly implemented in October/November?
Getting massively parallel software to scale and access all the video as planned is likely very hard.
2) Version 12 FSD is a large code upgrade to Version 11. I’ve noticed FSDbeta skills dropping in the 11.4.x series. This has got to be requiring lots of parameter changes and code revisions. Then there is the simulation testing. Time consuming.
3) The Cybertruck is a new set of hardware with likely different camera sight lines. How do they impact Autopilot and FSD Version 11/12.? There is a hard deadline of November 30th for this completion.
4) Then there is the annual Christmas update. Just another complication at this time in 2023….
5) Voice commands and in vehicle Tesla AI Grok.
Lots of work, interacting schedules and the same resources as before…
Likely priority on issue 3, followed by issue 1 then issue 2 and maybe issue 4 is punted into 2024? Issue 5 is just a huge unknown.
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The Holiday update MUST come before the end of the year or it is NOT the holiday update. So it can't be "punted" into 2024. V12 is probably 4 to 12 months (or longer) away. We will likely get 11.4.8.x in the holiday update or maybe a 11.4.9.x but hopefully on a newer (23.44.25.x like last year) branch.
boonedocks
MS LR Blk/Blk 19”
wash rinse repeatXXXXXX
EVNow
Well-Known Member
In general Holiday update has been a general release that the beta testers get too. I think only last year there was some FSD related push to open it up to everyone.
So, I'd expect a holiday update that is a general update with a few conspicuous changes. Not really any FSD related update.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Yes - but only to include the general branch updates into beta update so that everyone would get "the holiday update".
I just want v12 to be as good as v10 and know that windshield wipers don't need to be on when it's not raining 
legendsk
Member
I'm a little concerned that it might have a bigger, better light show, but at the expense of now the head lights go on and off, day and night, in sync with the windshield wipers dry wipes?
It's going out to employees a lot sooner than I expected. In some past releases the public release has followed pretty quickly at this point - V12 is such a big change that I have a hard time seeing that happen, but hopefully I'm wrong!
About the "earth shattering" bit: if they can get to parity with V11 from an end-to-end AI system that alone is a pretty big accomplishment in my opinion!
About the "earth shattering" bit: if they can get to parity with V11 from an end-to-end AI system that alone is a pretty big accomplishment in my opinion!
SalisburySam
Active Member
Kudos for rebelliousness alone!
In my case, TeslaFi reports 8 of 19,173 Teslas on the same software as I: v2022.20.8, the last one prior to TV and disabled radars. All are Model 3 and HW3.0 with 2 each from 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021. I’m one of the only two for 2018! Assuming the other owner sells soon, I am a contender for being the lone ranger on this software/model/year. Not something I’d wanted nor thought I’d ever care about, but still anxiously (or not) awaiting that TV parity thingie I’ve read about.
Elon says FSD V12 won't be beta. Does that mean it will be alpha quality?
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