Poll: Who thinks they'll get the full $7,500 U.S. tax credit?

[Gilzo]

The full tax credit goes away after tesla sells 200,000 production cars (total, not just model 3). Considering they've already sold approximately 100,000 of the model S/X PLUS however many more sell over the next 2 years, PLUS the ~140,000 preorders made in the first few hours.... it seems fairly clear.

Sure, quite a few of those preorders were outside the U.S. but that is largely negated by the fact that they are planning to release the 3 in CA and work their way east. (As stated by EM himself)

Granted, it's a guess.... but it's an educated/well-informed one. Definitely not "wild a$$ed" as you say. This is all common knowledge, just gotta connect the dots. Sorry if you don't like it but honestly GFY. #truthhurts #killthemessenger #crymeariver #tissuesforyourissues

Sigh...you again.
You do (actually seems like you dont) realize that reaching the 200k mark doesn't mean every car after that won't get the credit right?
I hate to hash this out again but for you, I'll make an exception.

It's all about timing and how much production they can roll out.

If they hit the 200k mark at the beginning of a quarter, every car they make for the next 6 months gets the full 7500 buck credit. That could be 10k cars, could be 100k cars...who knows. They could decide to hold deliveries to time it right for the beginning of a quarter leading up to the 200k mark. They could delivery to non US destinations to time it right.

The point is, it's possible for people to get the full credit days after 3/31 much less a couple of hours.

As it stands today, if we assume the 400k orders are about half non us orders, like the S and X currently are then we have around 200k US orders. So the question now is how many of those 200k cars will Tesla be able to deliver during those first 6 months after hitting the 200k car limit.

There's more but I'm tired and I'm hoping you can see there's definitely a chance that people who ordered days after the announcement can get the full tax credit.

 

[Tiberius]

Sigh...you again.
You do (actually seems like you dont) realize that reaching the 200k mark doesn't mean every car after that won't get the credit right?
I hate to hash this out again but for you, I'll make an exception.

It's all about timing and how much production they can roll out.

If they hit the 200k mark at the beginning of a quarter, every car they make for the next 6 months gets the full 7500 buck credit. That could be 10k cars, could be 100k cars...who knows. They could decide to hold deliveries to time it right for the beginning of a quarter leading up to the 200k mark. They could delivery to non US destinations to time it right.

The point is, it's possible for people to get the full credit days after 3/31 much less a couple of hours.

As it stands today, if we assume the 400k orders are about half non us orders, like the S and X currently are then we have around 200k US orders. So the question now is how many of those 200k cars will Tesla be able to deliver during those first 6 months after hitting the 200k car limit.

There's more but I'm tired and I'm hoping you can see there's definitely a chance that people who ordered days after the announcement can get the full tax credit.

I actually wasn't aware of that. So we just have to hope Tesla will be producing at the 200k rate right out of the gate? Sure that'll happen.

Not a point worth making. On the bright side, grashelm can still GFY, which is the main point I was driving at.

 

[Gilzo]

I actually wasn't aware of that. So we just have to hope Tesla will be producing at the 200k rate right out of the gate? Sure that'll happen.

Not a point worth making. On the bright side, grashelm can still GFY, which is the main point I was driving at.

To sum up the jargon of the tax rebate:
1. When hitting the 200k mark, every car delivered in that quarter and the quarter after gets 7500k. (Time it at the beginning of that quarter and every car for the next 6 months gets the 7500 buck tax credit).
2. The next 2 quarter after the above statement gets $3750
3. The next 2 quarters after the 3750 gets $1875.

So if tesla times it right (they're smart so I'm confident they will) by hitting the 200k mark at the beginning of the quarter, they'll have 18 months to deliver cars that will have some sort of the tax credit.

I was 15th in line on 3/31. Got in the show room 10 mins after they opened. I live in Texas, non tesla owner with a budget of 45 to 50k. Fingers crossed I get the $7500 credit but will still get the car even if I get no credit. To me, $7500 isn't worth not having a tesla. I can always make up $7500 in my life if I don't get the credit.

No $7500 tax credit = no M3

Or

No tax credit = M3

Easy decision to me...take the car.

 

[deonb]

I actually wasn't aware of that.

Then you shouldn't be the one saying that others haven't:

been paying attention to the few actual facts about this floating around the forums.

nor should you be claiming what someone else is saying is:

Lies

So we just have to hope Tesla will be producing at the 200k rate right out of the gate? Sure that'll happen.

No, they'll start off with 5 a week of course, but they can delivering at least the first 30'000 before they get to e.g. 199k. If they're then still not satisfied with their ramp, they can start delivering exclusively internationally for a quarter or two to improve it.

So when they hit the first day of the quarter after, they would have already delivered e.g. 75'000 Model 3's, and can switch to U.S. deliveries with a production line that's already running smoothly. For that matter, they can even produce a month or two worth of Model 3's and have them sit in a warehouse and deliver them on day 1 of the next quarter.

Tesla is well aware that they have various options to optimize for the credit - Elon even tweeted / responded to this exact scenario:

 

[Xaff]

I was 16 in line at the Kansas City location. I'm fairly certain that I'll get the full tax credit, but I probably will not utilize the full amount. I have never had to pay $7,500 in federal income taxes and don't plan on having to unless I get a big pay increase between now and then.

 

[grashelm]

The full tax credit goes away after tesla sells 200,000 production cars (total, not just model 3).

Hmmmm....Stopped reading your reply after the first sentence. Couldn't be any further from the truth so I think it's safe to say whatever follows is only more bunk!

 

[grashelm]

On the bright side, grashelm can still GFY, which is the main point I was driving at.

lol

 

[Lunarx]

I was 16 in line at the Kansas City location. I'm fairly certain that I'll get the full tax credit, but I probably will not utilize the full amount. I have never had to pay $7,500 in federal income taxes and don't plan on having to unless I get a big pay increase between now and then.

You could be suprised.
Its not just what you "pay" the Feds (in April), its that, plus your Fed Tax witheld on W2, throughout the year.

 

[Winston Wolf]

First post. Excited to join the forum.

I voted "Maybe". Truth is, none of us have any idea what criteria Tesla will use as they ramp up. Will they do the higher margin cars? Possibly. Will they do simpler configurations due to problems with complex parts? Possibly. Will they move to a more traditional manufacturing queue where a highly optioned car is followed on the assembly line by one that doesn't have as many options (at least, that's how I think it goes at traditional automakers)? Possibly.

I ordered on 4/1 just before noon CST. I figure I'm in the 180-200k range on global orders.

Here is my math, all based on guesses:
200k orders * 60% US = 120k US orders before mine.
Since I'm in the midwest, I won't get mine first, but won't get it last either. I'll also order a few options such as dual motor, but not all the options. I'm also not a current owner. Let's say I get mine in the lower 30%
70% * 120k = 84k US orders delivered before mine.

Based on the S and X predicted sales curves I've seen, that puts me right at about the 200,000th car that Tesla will sell. Depending on when it sells (beginning of a quarter), it increases the likelihood that I'll get the full credit, since it extends through the full quarter following the sale of the 200,000th car.

We'll see. All conjecture at this point.

 

[Haxster]

You could be suprised.
Its not just what you "pay" the Feds (in April), its that, plus your Fed Tax witheld on W2, throughout the year.

Agree.

The most recent IRS tax tables show that a $7,500 tax obligation comes from taxable earnings of ~$47K for singles and ~$56K for joint filers.

Another point to consider is that if the $7,500 tax credit exceeds your total IRS tax obligation for the year that you acquire the car, I have read that you cannot carry over any unused credit to subsequent years.

And as I understand the tax credit, if you lease the car, the tax credit goes to the owner of the car; the leasing company. It's up to you to negotiate this into the terms of the lease.

 

[TslaIsFuture]

east coast, non owner, 2 model 3 reservations, $55-$60k price point, and $40-$45k price point. I think there is a very good chance I will get the full credit for both. If CA passes legislation regarding no sales tax for those who choose factory deliveries....I will certainly do that to even better my odds. Elon is a smart guy, he knows about the tax credit, he has already planned for a bigger ramp up for the model 3, and he has learned a lot from his previous 3 vehicles. I am optimistic but always planning for the worst.

 

[gregincal]

The full tax credit goes away after tesla sells 200,000 production cars (total, not just model 3). Considering they've already sold approximately 100,000 of the model S/X PLUS however many more sell over the next 2 years, PLUS the ~140,000 preorders made in the first few hours.... it seems fairly clear.

They have not sold approximately 100,000 qualifying cars in the US. Less than 70,000 in fact. And they are currently selling at a rate of about 35K cars per year in the US. They will likely hit the limit a couple quarters into Model 3 production. How many people get the credit all depends on how many cars they are making at that point.

 

[geoffreak]

Okay I'm going to do some estimates here based on these numbers:

Most current estimates for production are <100k Model 3's in 2018 and <200k in 2019.

Here's the estimated production capacity over the next few years for Tesla in graph form:

Source: Model 3: How Ambitious Are Tesla Motors Inc.'s Production Plans?

Assuming 55% of vehicles produced are bound for the US over this entire timeframe, 2017 will end with around 170k US vehicles delivered. With 99k vehicles scheduled to be delivered in the US in 2018, this means car 200k will be delivered in Q2 2018 without any attempts to maximize it. Given that Tesla will be attempting to maximize the credit usage and that I think their Model X numbers are overly ambitious, 200k could be delayed as far as Q4 2018. This means the full credit should end sometime between end of Q3 2018 and Q1 2019.

Model 3 deliveries will be biased towards later in the year in 2018 and I expect nearly all Model 3 deliveries for that year to be to the US, so this equates to about 40k-100k (yes, 100k) deliveries which should be able to take advantage of the full credit! Assuming around 10k pre-registrations (from Space X and Tesla employees + other eligible people) and 10-20k orders from current owners that ordered early enough to be prioritized, there is a high likelihood that everyone who ordered in store on the 31st will get full credit (estimated by me as around 20-30k). In the scenario in which 100k full-credit deliveries are made, nearly everyone who ordered before the event could get full credit.

I think these numbers are still a little conservative now that Tesla has said they are ramping up production. If they spin up the lines faster, there could be as much as a 50-70% increase in Model 3 deliveries in 2018, which could result in another 10-40k eligible deliveries.

All this being said, I think it's fair to be optimistic for the people who ordered as fast as possible.

 

[UltralightBeam]

east coast, non owner, 2 model 3 reservations, $55-$60k price point, and $40-$45k price point. I think there is a very good chance I will get the full credit for both. If CA passes legislation regarding no sales tax for those who choose factory deliveries....I will certainly do that to even better my odds. Elon is a smart guy, he knows about the tax credit, he has already planned for a bigger ramp up for the model 3, and he has learned a lot from his previous 3 vehicles. I am optimistic but always planning for the worst.

Are you saying that picking up your Tesla in ca will exempt you from taxes? Isn't it (taxes) based on billing/home address? So for you, East coast?

 

[flamingoezz]

They have not sold approximately 100,000 qualifying cars in the US. Less than 70,000 in fact. And they are currently selling at a rate of about 35K cars per year in the US. They will likely hit the limit a couple quarters into Model 3 production. How many people get the credit all depends on how many cars they are making at that point.

I'm sure I won't see a full rebate as I didn't reserve until 2 weeks after the reveal. I'm not super optimistic, but hopeful that I can get $3750 though. Not that I'm a tesla expert, but here is my thinking.

I've read that Tesla is looking to double production next year and reach 500,000 cars per year by 2020. If tesla has sold 70K Model S in the US since this federal rebate started (6 years ago?) and has 400K preorders for the model 3 waiting, it would seem logical for them to put most of their resources into getting the M3's fulfilled.

If they are doubling production to 180K cars next year and aren't slated to start building M3's until Q4, they 'should' be able to build 10's of thousands more S & X models than they can sell in 2017. This will allow Tesla to sort through production issues and build maybe build 10,000 or so M3's by end of year 2017.

With a stockpile of S & X models, Tesla would be able to focus most of their production on the M3 starting Q1 2018 if all goes to plan. I wouldn't be surprised to see over 300K M3's built by end of 2018 with 70% being delivered to the US.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Are you saying that picking up your Tesla in ca will exempt you from taxes? Isn't it (taxes) based on billing/home address? So for you, East coast?

No, what he means is no local CA sales tax for out of state people that pick up in CA. Right now, there is a CA sales tax when you pick up in CA and then you have to go through a whole bunch of hoops to get exemptions from your own state so you are not double taxed.

If they waive the CA sales tax, it'll be much easier (you just pay the taxes in your own state). See article below about a bill to address this:
CA Bill Gives Tax-Free Delivery To Out-Of-State Tesla Buyers

 

[Az_Rael]

nearly everyone who ordered before the event could get full credit

You are assuming the build order will be the reservation order, which will probably not be the case. Not everyone who ordered on day 1 is going to order a Model 3 PXXL version. But we know those cars will go out first based on Elon's statements regarding "highly optioned" models. And that also ignores shipment order, which we know will be West Coast -> East Coast.

The real question is if we assume 100k Model 3's will get the full credit, will 100k people configure a PXXL or PXX car? I don't know what the prior percentages between P models vs regular models were for the X and S, but that would be an interesting data point. After the "P's" it will be the top battery configuration, whatever that ends up being.

In the end I don't think your reservation order is going to matter nearly as much as where you are and what you configure. Your reservation time will get you into the configuration screen earlier than others. After that, you get in the REAL line based on your options chosen.

 

[Winston Wolf]

With a stockpile of S & X models, Tesla would be able to focus most of their production on the M3 starting Q1 2018 if all goes to plan. I wouldn't be surprised to see over 300K M3's built by end of 2018 with 70% being delivered to the US.

Not sure how this really benefits the model 3, with the exception of being able to flex workforce from one line to another. My understanding is that the M3 will not be built on the existing lines for the S or X.

 

[ImEric]

I'm pretty certain that I'll get it. I live in L.A., I'll be getting a highly optioned version and I was pretty early in the line on 3/31. I'm not an employee or current Roadster/S/X owner, but I think I check enough boxes to get the full 7500. If not, maybe I'll option down and get the best range instead of best performance.

 

[MiamiNole]

You are assuming the build order will be the reservation order, which will probably not be the case. Not everyone who ordered on day 1 is going to order a Model 3 PXXL version. But we know those cars will go out first based on Elon's statements regarding "highly optioned" models. And that also ignores shipment order, which we know will be West Coast -> East Coast.

The real question is if we assume 100k Model 3's will get the full credit, will 100k people configure a PXXL or PXX car? I don't know what the prior percentages between P models vs regular models were for the X and S, but that would be an interesting data point. After the "P's" it will be the top battery configuration, whatever that ends up being.

In the end I don't think your reservation order is going to matter nearly as much as where you are and what you configure. Your reservation time will get you into the configuration screen earlier than others. After that, you get in the REAL line based on your options chosen.

This has been my assessment of it all along, which is why I'm REALLY interested to see what option pricing is going to be, especially on the battery upgrade, and whether we will get an estimated delivery date during configuration. It's sort of a "chicken or egg" scenario for me regarding getting a "highly optioned" car. I would get more options that I don't necessarily need such as the bigger battery (and assumedly the dual-motor option that comes packaged with it) if it guarantees me the full tax credit. If I don't get the full tax credit (or at the very least 50% of it), then there's no rush for me to configure and purchase the Model 3, since I'm perfectly fine with my current car for the time being. And yes, I'm aware of the potential wait times if I don't utilize my reservation. But it'd also give me more time to put more money aside for the car and other things.

That being said, even being a non-owner in Florida, I think I'd at least get a partial credit based on the configuration that I really want. With more time passing and info about battery pricing increasing, I'm leaning towards getting the bigger battery regardless of the tax credit. I also want the standard creature comforts that I currently have with my current car, plus of course SC access and AP.