Kurt Foster
Zero FX Stealthfighter
Love that bit, never really thought of it that way. Quick and precise, thanks for the head-check!
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Is there that much demand for this car?
Many are in for a rude awakening.
This car is not from yesterday, it was first mentioned 10 years ago when the world salivated about Roadster but could not afford it.
Last five years the world salivated about S and X, did test drives, watched YT and read all the praises and still could not afford the car.
What I don't get is what is there to get.
.I have 40k, I test ride S multiple times. What am I to do, go and buy a BMW stinker? No way in hell, I'd rather walk.
Many are in for a rude awakening.
This car is not from yesterday, it was first mentioned 10 years ago when the world salivated about Roadster but could not afford it.
Last five years the world salivated about S and X, did test drives, watched YT and read all the praises and still could not afford the car.
What I don't get is what is there to get.
.I have 40k, I test ride S multiple times. What am I to do, go and buy a BMW stinker? No way in hell, I'd rather walk.
HankLloydRight
No Roads
Throughly discussed here: For Techies: What size server, etc., will TM need to handle Model 3 reservations?
Basically, there really isn't going to be a "massive increase in their web server load" for the reservations.
By my numbers...
12-15k Tesla Motors employees
5k SpaceX employees
60k+ Current S owners in USA
35k+ X reservations/deliveries
*25k (additional projected 2016 Model S sales in USA)
140k total. If I consider a 20% rate of those reserving, that's 28k. I could see a total reservation count of about 100k within the first month or 2-3 months world wide. Not too many people willing to wait 2-3 years for a car. Even if they might miss out on rebates.
12-15k Tesla Motors employees
5k SpaceX employees
60k+ Current S owners in USA
35k+ X reservations/deliveries
*25k (additional projected 2016 Model S sales in USA)
140k total. If I consider a 20% rate of those reserving, that's 28k. I could see a total reservation count of about 100k within the first month or 2-3 months world wide. Not too many people willing to wait 2-3 years for a car. Even if they might miss out on rebates.
Yuri_G
Member
Check out this poll from CNBC: Poll: Putting down $1,000 for a new Tesla Model 3?
85% of respondents are interested in buying the 3. About 75% interested in putting down a deposit. Not a bad response out of 8000 people for a poll that has been up for a few hours!
85% of respondents are interested in buying the 3. About 75% interested in putting down a deposit. Not a bad response out of 8000 people for a poll that has been up for a few hours!
An ad-hoc addendum. I was at a university hospital this afternoon meeting with a number of different physicians. One of them, observing my Tesla-logo iPhone said: "...are you ready for Thursday? You're putting in an order? I confirmed, he said " so am I, it will be my first American car!" Four others were overhearing whereupon three of them said, "I'm ordering online", the fourth asked "what are you people all talking about?" whereupon he received a lecture and a strong suggestion that he, too, should order. If such things are happening I suspect we may be underestimating the appeal. None of these people had ever owned an electric vehicle or considered one, but all had high disposable incomes.
Here is a poll from CNBC. It bet this is a more accurate gauge of the public sentiment about Model 3.
Poll: Putting down $1,000 for a new Tesla Model 3?
Poll: Putting down $1,000 for a new Tesla Model 3?
Maybe, maybe not. Voters are probably a self-selecting group (ie, only Tesla fans are voting)
sundaymorning
Active Member
If it's 100k you won't get it in the first year of production. You will need to wait an additional year after the first car is delivered.
I agree it probably has a strong self-selecting bias but does that change the significance of the poll? In a few hours they have over 10,000 people voting yes they will make a deposit. I'll make a wild guess that poll represents about 2 - 5% of people who will be actually making a deposit.
No, but 6% voting not interested at all makes me think it's mostly Tesla fans answering, and not necessarily a good sample of the general population.
But there's close to 15k votes now, and it went up ~2k in the last hour or so. Gonna be an interesting Thursday...
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
xmetal
Member
Based on the spreadsheet here, only 3 or 4 people on the forums were going to store this morning. However, there were probably 150-200 people waiting at the point I left, so clearly this release is being discussed elsewhere. While I was there, some random lady that was at the Apple store to get her laptop fixed got in line and reserved one. More than just car nerds are hearing about this, and looking through the thread about how long the lines are at every store I think it's not unrealistic that just the US stores (I see 93 listed on tesla.com) might do 30,000+ reservations today.
No matter how you slice it, this is a pretty impressive result and I'm sure other carmakers are having meetings today...
No matter how you slice it, this is a pretty impressive result and I'm sure other carmakers are having meetings today...
I'm a bit stunned at the turn out. I'm also so excited. By my estimates we got over 400 at each Toronto location as well as 300 or more in Montreal. So it just 2 cities in Canada we hit 1000 reservations. My estimate is that before the show tonight they'll hit 25,000 reservations across the Globe.
trinites1a
Cookie | X60D
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
There's ~200 stores globally... if you assume an average of 200/store (super conservative estimate) that's 40k... online reservations after the reveal should exceed in store... pretty sure we break 100k on day 1. Which is funny since analysts were predicting that for Q1...
To think of it another way... Tesla is going to reserve more cars today than they've sold in the past 10 years
To think of it another way... Tesla is going to reserve more cars today than they've sold in the past 10 years
Certainly by the end of the day tomorrow (may be late for some east coasters). The only way we're not there is with a server crash.There's ~200 stores globally... if you assume an average of 200/store (super conservative estimate) that's 40k... online reservations after the reveal should exceed in store... pretty sure we break 100k on day 1. Which is funny since analysts were predicting that for Q1...
To think of it another way... Tesla is going to reserve more cars today than they've sold in the past 10 years
To think of it another way... Tesla is going to reserve more cars today than they've sold in the past 10 years
First time poster, sitting here at my desk during lunch reading these forums as I always do. Saw this post and immediately started giggling and tearing up at the same time. So many people don't understand how epic this day is! Wish I could have been in line today (Paramus, NJ is closest at 3+ hours away) but I'm chomping at the bit to reserve tonight!
ummgood
Member
I was in Austin and was 106 in line at 7:30am for a 10am opening. When I left there were over 400 people on the sign up list (someone at the front of the line started a list).
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