Prediction: Model 3 Orders to reach 100k in 24 hours

[TaoJones]

I made a similar prediction recently at the TM site - 100K reservations by close of business 4/1.

Note the number of Tesla showrooms presently open for business. Whatever volume of reservations they manage to accomplish by eod 4/1 will be dwarfed by the online reservations which, presuming server and payment processing capacity is robust enough to handle the load, (and that's a big presumption as it involves those darned things known as details) could easily exceed 100,000 globally in the timeframe specified. Across 38 hours (1000 3/31 - 2359 4/1), that's less than 3,000 reservations/hour worldwide. Not hard to do. At all.

You could see 50,000 reservations from California alone, folks.

The limiting factors here for the first day or so could well be gateway and payment processing capacity.

So now let's view things from the other side:

Playing devil's advocate for the contrarian camp that doesn't think there will be 100,000 signups the first day or so, I just took a mini-road trip (~1100 miles) this past Friday/Saturday from LA County to Ventura, California to north of Kingman, Arizona, and back to LA County. Inclusive, the following superchargers were visited:

Oxnads x1
Barstow x2
Needles x2
Kingman x2
Redondo Beach x1

Conversations were held at or near almost every stop. OTR truckers came up to me 2-3 times, as did a few other people who stopped dead in various parking lots to walk over, and then there was the usual contingent of Tesla owners one might expect at SCs on a Friday night on the road to Vegas. Fwiw, Barstow had 2 spots open when I got there Friday dinnertime-ish, and was completely full minutes thereafter with a car waiting. And that's after the expansion.

Almost none of the non-Tesla owners who had questions knew about the Model 3 or the Model 3 signup opportunity on 3/31 either in person or online.

Of course Tesla doesn't advertise in the traditional sense, and of course they could care less how many people sign up on day 1 versus month 1, but there does seem to be an opportunity here in the next week to keep feeding the media press releases in order to increase excitement/awareness amongst the Great Unwashed.

OK, so in fairness the 3/31 date is not by accident since they can report the results of the day during the next quarterly call (pretty nice way to raise an extra $100 million (less ~1% for the card processing fees) in 24 hours interest-free for 2 years, eh).
That said, if my experiences last Friday/Saturday in CA/AZ are in any way indicative of the continent at large, it may well be that only the faithful will show up 3/31 and sign up 3/31.

After I gave the usual elevator pitch about the Model 3 and why it's important to sign up by 4/1 (best shot at the full federal tax credit, only shot at securing a Model 3 in 2018 (we didn't go into the inventory car option) fully loaded or not, and for the net price of a well-appointed Honda but with no gas/oil costs ever), most people ended up more interested than they were before they stopped by. Altogether I talked to 20-30 people this trip about, in part, the Model 3 thing - all impromptu conversations. Hopefully some of them sign up, and get an S in the meantime to tide them over.

One constant remains about that random sample - there is precious little awareness of the Model 3 or of signing up for it 3/31 amongst the non-faithful.

 

[Scott Wilcox]

I see people on the BMW forums talking about putting a reservation in and I see people on the Nissan LEAF forums planning on putting in a reservation. That is a pretty broad spectrum of possible buyers. That being said I have no idea on how many people will jump this soon before they are delivered. I think if people knew more about tax credits and why they should reserve one if they want one, I would say 100K would be possible. I still think a number of people think they can walk into a Tesla store in 2 years and just pick one up like at any other car dealer.

 

[Tedkidd]

I see people on the BMW forums talking about putting a reservation in and I see people on the Nissan LEAF forums planning on putting in a reservation. That is a pretty broad spectrum of possible buyers. That being said I have no idea on how many people will jump this soon before they are delivered. I think if people knew more about tax credits and why they should reserve one if they want one, I would say 100K would be possible. I still think a number of people think they can walk into a Tesla store in 2 years and just pick one up like at any other car dealer.

Very common misconception. I convinced a Home Performance client who thought he'd get an X this way to buy a p85d late fall '14 (delivered march '15).

 

[eloder]

100k is very reasonable within 24 hours, because for every one current Tesla owner there's most assuredly at least one friend, family member, coworker, or someone else acquainted who really, really wants a Tesla.

 

[cwerdna]

"ou have to figure that a significant percentage of current Tesla owners will put their money down right away, because why not."

Why not? Because if you can afford an S-Class, you don't buy the C-class.

Some people buy the C-class because they don't want to flaunt their wealth. Not every wealthy person is an egomaniacal show-off (Warren Buffet comes to mind).

Yep,

I can easily afford a Model S, S-Class, BMW 7-series, but I don't care to buy any of these (including the C-Class, BMW 3-series, 4-series, etc.) for numerous reasons.

Mercedes, to use your example, doesn't have "fans".

Sure they do. I know some of them.

 

[raysspl]

Yup, very likely it can go this way.

 

[trinites1a]

This is a quote from the from a TMC member going to the Montreal Tesla store to reserve. "Camping out two nights now as big crowds expected here"

Look here for more: Model3-CampOut-LineUp-OnLine

Yea I don't doubt in certain places their may be lines but on a whole 100k off the bat seems excessive. I mean if it happens great! I'm just saying it's unlikely.

 

[Big Dog]

cwerdana

You inadvertently (or purposely) took my example out of context....

 

[ummgood]

I am new to this forum...

I figured I could make a couple points from my point of view. I am a SW engineer and am pretty frugal. My wife stays at home with our kids. My commuter is a 2005 Toyota Tacoma with about 115k miles. My wife has a 2014 Odyssey Touring Elite. We typically do road trips for our vacations so we need an ICE with three kids so we can get to California or Florida without having a bunch of stops. With 3 kids flying and renting a car is leaps and bounds more expensive than driving. That is why we have the Odyssey. My oldest daughter will be 13 this year and in a couple years I'll be needing another car. Thankfully she loves my truck and wants that to drive so my plan is to buy myself a car in the next couple years and keep my truck for her.

Now let me give my thoughts on EV's. Until I bought the truck I am usually a sports car lover. I bought the truck out of practicality. While I would love to have an EV none up to this point have appealed to me except for the model S. I feel like the weird materials they use to be "green" and the strange designs (Leaf, i3, Bolt) just don't appeal to me at all. I am just not practical enough to overcome the goofy appearance that most EV's on the market have. I want a car to have sleek lines and style as well as a sporty nature. Unfortunately with 3 kids in private school and a wife that stays at home I cannot justify a 100k car. I can afford a 40 or 50k car in a couple years when the Odyssey is paid off. I have been sacrificing for a long time for my family so I figured my next car would be a bit of a splurge. I was thinking of something like a Nissan Maxima Platinum, Lexus IS, Audi A4, or BMW 3 series in that price range. I would love to get a Tesla but until the announcement for the Model 3 they were all too sky high priced for me. With Texas gas prices currently I can't justify it. I probably put about $100/month in gas in my truck so that isn't enough to bump me up to the Model S price point. Now that the Model 3 is out I am willing to put down $1k to get in line and wait it out to see if the car I desire will be in my price range and available in the time I need another car. This might even help me get rid of the new car fever I have had for the past couple months since I'll have something cool to wait for. The reason I said all of this is I am thinking there will be a lot of people like myself that have never owned an EV but are waiting for something that is affordable AND attractive. I never could get myself to consider an EV based on those two factors.

Now with that said I do know some guys at work that drive EV's. A couple have the Model S (A 80 and a 70D). I also know a couple with the i3. The two that drive the i3 is because BMW had an insane lease deal a couple years ago that makes the car almost free. The Model S guys have a longer commute than I do and charge their cars at work so they justify the high payment because they no longer have a $300/month gas bill. The point here is the Model S owners are "stretching" to afford the car. It probably is the same as buying a 50k SUV and having the gas savings since they don't really need to charge at home. While they love their cars I think they would have been just as satisfied with a Model 3 as long as the tech stays as awesome in that car. I have seen the argument that an S-Class owner wouldn't buy a C-Class. But at the same time I also have the point of view that a lot of the Model S drivers in Austin are probably buying the Model S by justifying it with gas savings etc... and never would have purchased a 80 or 90k car otherwise. Those types of Model S owners might reserve a Model 3 with the intention of selling their Model S and getting a lower payment. Think about how cool it would be to own a stripped level Model 3 and not pay gas for the payment of a Honda Civic. Pretty awesome in my eyes.

Now I work at a high tech company that has mostly engineers and I haven't heard anyone really talking about the Model 3 but me. Most of the guys have no idea about it or that pre-orders are opening up at this point. I am guessing maybe the 31st might be the people who have been actively waiting for this car like me. I think after there are pictures and a bunch of news stories then the pre-orders might start rolling in a few days after. I kind of am nervous a bit about putting a deposit down on a car I haven't seen. At least I hope with Tesla's S3XY model lineup all the cars will be as sexy as the model S or model X even though lower cost.

While I don't know exactly how many deposits Tesla will get on opening day I think there will be quite a few people willing to give the Model 3 a try that would have never purchased a EV because of cost or funky looks.

Anyway I'll be there on the 31st in the Austin showroom to put down my deposit. I plan on arriving as soon as I drop my kids off at school and battle Austin traffic. Hopefully the line isn't too insane...

 

[trinites1a]

I am new to this forum...

I figured I could make a couple points from my point of view. I am a SW engineer and am pretty frugal. My wife stays at home with our kids. My commuter is a 2005 Toyota Tacoma with about 115k miles. My wife has a 2014 Odyssey Touring Elite. We typically do road trips for our vacations so we need an ICE with three kids so we can get to California or Florida without having a bunch of stops. With 3 kids flying and renting a car is leaps and bounds more expensive than driving. That is why we have the Odyssey. My oldest daughter will be 13 this year and in a couple years I'll be needing another car. Thankfully she loves my truck and wants that to drive so my plan is to buy myself a car in the next couple years and keep my truck for her.

Now let me give my thoughts on EV's. Until I bought the truck I am usually a sports car lover. I bought the truck out of practicality. While I would love to have an EV none up to this point have appealed to me except for the model S. I feel like the weird materials they use to be "green" and the strange designs (Leaf, i3, Bolt) just don't appeal to me at all. I am just not practical enough to overcome the goofy appearance that most EV's on the market have. I want a car to have sleek lines and style as well as a sporty nature. Unfortunately with 3 kids in private school and a wife that stays at home I cannot justify a 100k car. I can afford a 40 or 50k car in a couple years when the Odyssey is paid off. I have been sacrificing for a long time for my family so I figured my next car would be a bit of a splurge. I was thinking of something like a Nissan Maxima Platinum, Lexus IS, Audi A4, or BMW 3 series in that price range. I would love to get a Tesla but until the announcement for the Model 3 they were all too sky high priced for me. With Texas gas prices currently I can't justify it. I probably put about $100/month in gas in my truck so that isn't enough to bump me up to the Model S price point. Now that the Model 3 is out I am willing to put down $1k to get in line and wait it out to see if the car I desire will be in my price range and available in the time I need another car. This might even help me get rid of the new car fever I have had for the past couple months since I'll have something cool to wait for. The reason I said all of this is I am thinking there will be a lot of people like myself that have never owned an EV but are waiting for something that is affordable AND attractive. I never could get myself to consider an EV based on those two factors.

Now with that said I do know some guys at work that drive EV's. A couple have the Model S (A 80 and a 70D). I also know a couple with the i3. The two that drive the i3 is because BMW had an insane lease deal a couple years ago that makes the car almost free. The Model S guys have a longer commute than I do and charge their cars at work so they justify the high payment because they no longer have a $300/month gas bill. The point here is the Model S owners are "stretching" to afford the car. It probably is the same as buying a 50k SUV and having the gas savings since they don't really need to charge at home. While they love their cars I think they would have been just as satisfied with a Model 3 as long as the tech stays as awesome in that car. I have seen the argument that an S-Class owner wouldn't buy a C-Class. But at the same time I also have the point of view that a lot of the Model S drivers in Austin are probably buying the Model S by justifying it with gas savings etc... and never would have purchased a 80 or 90k car otherwise. Those types of Model S owners might reserve a Model 3 with the intention of selling their Model S and getting a lower payment. Think about how cool it would be to own a stripped level Model 3 and not pay gas for the payment of a Honda Civic. Pretty awesome in my eyes.

Now I work at a high tech company that has mostly engineers and I haven't heard anyone really talking about the Model 3 but me. Most of the guys have no idea about it or that pre-orders are opening up at this point. I am guessing maybe the 31st might be the people who have been actively waiting for this car like me. I think after there are pictures and a bunch of news stories then the pre-orders might start rolling in a few days after. I kind of am nervous a bit about putting a deposit down on a car I haven't seen. At least I hope with Tesla's S3XY model lineup all the cars will be as sexy as the model S or model X even though lower cost.

While I don't know exactly how many deposits Tesla will get on opening day I think there will be quite a few people willing to give the Model 3 a try that would have never purchased a EV because of cost or funky looks.

Anyway I'll be there on the 31st in the Austin showroom to put down my deposit. I plan on arriving as soon as I drop my kids off at school and battle Austin traffic. Hopefully the line isn't too insane...

Good Job!.. Parents definitely deserve a splurge here and there.. I also agree that some Model S purchasers purchase based on gas savings factored in.. I have no doubt Tesla will create another compelling car in the Model 3 and that's part of the reason I'm reserving without having seen the car.

 

[TaoJones]

Not for nothing, but that transcontinental travel with the kids will only take 20% longer with the SC stops - and you'll finish each day more refreshed as well. There are caveats, but there are caveats with ICE travel as well. A recent trip from Ventura to Kingman took an extra hour because part of State Route 18 is missing. There's no there there. So everybody had to detour. Fortunately with the extra range of an MS, there was zero range anxiety. There was one person who had run out of gas. And so it goes.

Also, used MSs are going to be seen in the $30K range before the M3 ships. And at $40K for used higher-mileage AP MS. These are facts supported by even the most circumspect observation as well as by the numbers printed upon current owners' GRV forms. So within 2 years, it will become even less justifiable or rationalizable to drive an ICE.

Putting down $1K on 3/31 and no later than 4/1 merely optimizes one's chances of securing the maximum tax credit along with having any chance at all of an M3 (short of an inventory car) before 2020. Yep - I expect no more than 50K M3 in 2018 and 100K M3 in 2019, and would be quite happy if Tesla exceeds those perhaps conservative production targets.

 

[Super_Popular]

Camping out LOL

 

[graphix25]

Since we are talking about forecast in demand and sales volumes I thought I would share some of my data.

I have been studying the luxury market and have built a sales forecast for Tesla. I have also complied sales history for the big three German brands for general comparison from that last few years. I was surprised to find that BMW, Diamler and Audi all ship about 2m cars globally each as compared to Toyota and GM at nearly 10m a piece. Tesla has a long way to go to even get to 1m+ cars annually. As a long term investor in stocks in general and Tesla specifically I hope my forecast is right. If I'm right in my forecast and they have a strong energy business, $2500-3000 a share could be a distinct possibility from $227 today. I will buy one of each Tesla model if that occurs for my retirement gift to myself in 2030. It will be called My SEXYR Garage. Maybe I will do a you tube channel about it... The garage will have big solar panels over the whole place making my cars all nuclear powered.

 

[Bimbels]

"ou have to figure that a significant percentage of current Tesla owners will put their money down right away, because why not."

Why not? Because if you can afford an S-Class, you don't buy the C-class.

Actually, there are a LOT of current Tesla owners who will be reserving a model 3. (Like me.) For us it will be replacing our other (ICE) car - we don't need 2 huge cars, we don't need 2 $85K cars (we have a 70D, moderately optioned,) we previously had cars and prefer cars in the Model 3 size range. We spent more on our 70D than we ever had on a car previously by about double. We can afford a P90D S or X - but that isn't "us." We would never spend that much on a car even though money is not the issue. So yeah, there are plenty of S/X owners who would buy the "C-Class."

Not only are many Model S owners reserving the M3 as their second tesla, they are also buying the M3 for their kids and/or their parents. One guy posted that he's reserving 4 for members of his family. I think there will be a substantial number of S/X owners who reserve the Model 3.

 

[gigglehertz]

Will the Model 3? The world's best selling EV is the Leaf. The EV w/the highest installed base in the US is the Leaf.

As a Leaf driver, I can tell you from personal anecdotal experience that there is a great deal of enthusiasm over the Model ≡ from Leaf drivers I have met at the local Chademo watering hole in town. We all love our car in general, LOVE the torque, but also lust after the longer range, the supercharger network, the large touch screen, autopilot, and the OTA updates. Your are right in that the Leaf is currently the default choice of the non 1%'rs out there, but the Model ≡ is the car of our dreams. Everyone who has seen the D launch videos lusts after this car. Most people at work i talked to had no problems with electric cars, just the range and availability of charging on long trips. Not everyone is in the market for a new car, and not everyone will put down $1k for a car not due out for 2 years. I don't know what the numbers will be, but it will be HUGE compared to the Model S/X.

 

[cwerdna]

As a Leaf driver, I can tell you from personal anecdotal experience that there is a great deal of enthusiasm over the Model ≡ from Leaf drivers I have met at the local Chademo watering hole in town. We all love our car in general, LOVE the torque, but also lust after the longer range, the supercharger network, the large touch screen, autopilot, and the OTA updates. Your are right in that the Leaf is currently the default choice of the non 1%'rs out there, but the Model ≡ is the car of our dreams. Everyone who has seen the D launch videos lusts after this car. Most people at work i talked to had no problems with electric cars, just the range and availability of charging on long trips.

I'd say most of your comments are on the mark, except other than some folks on the net posting on EV-centric forums I'm on, I know of maybe only one person who plans to reserve a Model 3 on the March 31st. For the rest, nope. (I've been driving a Leaf for over 2.5 years and we have PLENTY of EVs and PHEVs at my work, including a # of Model S.)

That includes people who seem to bring up Tesla a bunch at work (and drive no EV nor PHEV) (I mentioned them at Prediction: Model 3 Orders to reach 100k in 24 hours). One guy at work who had a Leaf and got rid of it by turning it in early (for him, it was good riddance, long story) long ago kept wanting to order a Model S. He never did and I asked him today if he was going to pre-order a 3 on the 31st. His answer was also no.

I agree w/all the positives you mention about the Model S.

As for Model 3 is the car of our dreams or whatever... well, we don't know the details, and if you've followed Model S reliability and the teething issues so far w/the Model X (which I admit to not following very closely as I don't care, I have no interest in the X), I'm not sure it's the car "of my dreams" either.

 

[lklundin]

Tesla would release favorable Model 3 reservation statistics if the statistics are better than Model S and/or Model X in comparable terms of timing. Receiving 100,000 reservations within 24 hours would be a great feat, but I express disagreement with the prediction.

Never one to shy away from the chance of extra publicity, Elon Musk may do something entirely different:

During the Model 3 unveil he could stand in front of a big screen with a real-time updated counter of the actual reservations...

Obviously, if such a screen were to be there a debate would ensue over its accuracy and it would make for even more media attention...

I see that the web-server of Tesla Motors is using Varnish (unlike that of SpaceX), so they likely feel confident that they can handle a massive increase in their web-server load. It would also be a pity to not be able to serve a web-page to someone who wants to hand you a 1000$ (or a 1000€)...

 

[FlatSix911]

Since we are talking about forecast in demand and sales volumes I thought I would share some of my data.

I have been studying the luxury market and have built a sales forecast for Tesla. I have also complied sales history for the big three German brands for general comparison from that last few years. I was surprised to find that BMW, Diamler and Audi all ship about 2m cars globally each as compared to Toyota and GM at nearly 10m a piece. Tesla has a long way to go to even get to 1m+ cars annually. As a long term investor in stocks in general and Tesla specifically I hope my forecast is right. If I'm right in my forecast and they have a strong energy business, $2500-3000 a share could be a distinct possibility from $227 today. I will buy one of each Tesla model if that occurs for my retirement gift to myself in 2030. It will be called My SEXYR Garage. Maybe I will do a you tube channel about it... The garage will have big solar panels over the whole place making my cars all nuclear powered.

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View attachment 168482

Interesting news and delivery forecast the US market ...

SpaceX employees are now able to reserve the Tesla Model 3 early

The list of people having priority on the Tesla Model 3 reservation queue keeps growing. After Tesla employees, Electrek learned from sources that SpaceX employees can now also reserve Tesla’s upcoming third generation vehicle set to be unveiled on March 31st. Like for most Tesla employees, it appears most SpaceX employees reserving the vehicle are doing so sight unseen. Beside showing more synergy between Elon Musk’s two companies, it also adds up to now 3 groups of people having priority on the Tesla Model 3 reservation queue: Tesla employees, Tesla owners and SpaceX employees.

As we often mentioned in the past few months, the reservation process for the Model 3 is particularly important. Beyond proving demand for a long-range affordable electric vehicle, the process will also create an interesting situation in the US where the $7500 Federal tax credit for electric vehicles is capped at 200,000 units sold per manufacturer.

Tesla is expected to hit its limit in 2018, which means that an early reservation can help ensure the availability of the full tax credit for the vehicle and make it even less expensive. Here’s how we expect Tesla to reach 200,000 units cap:

Tesla has around 15,000 employees worldwide, while SpaceX employs around 5,000 people, most of them in California. Additionally, Tesla has a base of over 100,000 owners with around half in the US. Of course the availability of the tax credit will depend on Tesla bringing the Model 3 to market on time (late 2017) and on a successful production ramp up.

It’s still likely that most eligible people placing a reservation will have access to at least some form of tax credit. Under the current law, once the 200,000 cap is reached, customers will have access to the full credit for a full quarter with no apparent limit on units. They will then receive $3,750 for the following 6 month. It will again go down to $1,875 for the following 6 months. That means that for most of 2019 Tesla buyers won’t likely have much federal incentive to buy cars. By 2020, the Federal subsidy will have likely run out.

SpaceX employees being given early access to Model 3 reservations is only the latest example of collaboration between the two companies headed by Elon Musk. The CEO recently hired Apple’s alloy expert to lead materials engineering at both Tesla and SpaceX, and the automaker made a SPaceX factory tour one of the prizes for its Model S owner referral program. The two companies also shared technology in the past.

The early access is certainly a nice perk for Tesla and SpaceX employees who have the most stressful jobs (and most meaningful) in the tech industry, according to a recent survey. If you are not on Tesla’s or SpaceX’s payroll, you can still reserve the vehicle and the automaker released all the details on how to reserve your place in line starting on the day of the unveiling March 31st.

 

[No2DinosaurFuel]

Is there that much demand for this car? I mean realistically looking at it, sure there are a few people who are waiting for lower priced Tesla, but not everyone is looking for a new car, let alone a $40K+ car after everything. Moreover, gas is relatively cheap. Finally, I am not sure everyone is sold on the electric car stuff. This might sound like heresy in this forum, but I just want to give everyone a realistic view of things.

Apple new iphone, I can understand for the line. The cost is expensive for a phone, but something people can actually afford even if they don't make big bucks each month. This is a car btw. I predict the traffic will be light. Again I can be totally wrong, but that is my prediction. Now that being said, placing a deposit is just a way to put yourself in line. So it might turn out many people will place the deposit, but end up buying something else or not buying at all before the release.

Safe to say, I would check out the gallery the day before. If there is a line forming, I doubt I would take off work to reserve one in store. Who does that now-a-day anyways. Hoping here there wouldn't be a crowd so I can actually go in and reserve one.

 

[jbcarioca]

Is there that much demand for this car? ...

My closest car analogue was the first Honda Accord being sold in the country where I lived at the time, Bahrain where the 1976 waiting list was nine months long. Back then I bought one, drove it two days, hated it, and resold it for a 50% markup! The Model 3 certainly has far more appeal than did the Accord back then but the very existence of queues generates more interest, regardless of other factors. Frankly, I think gasoline prices are not a driver in this category, although they might be for the Volt/Bolt/Leaf type of category. Even there most of the buyers are choosing the technology more than a simply cost equation, or so I think.