Production estimates for 2013

[wishing_for_S]

I'm curious to see how many model S's you all think will be delivered this year. Based on the VIN data it looks like Tesla is either going to have to deliver more than the 21,000 they estimated or disappoint a lot of reservation holders. The delivery date estimates seem to be keeping up with new reservations so that puts us at about 600 cars produced per week right now.

Any predictions?

 

[brianstorms]

Wild guess: 23500

 

[Raffy.Roma]

Model S production is ramping up. My prediction: 25000

 

[30seconds]

24000

 

[MartinAustin]

I'll say 22500 Drew!

(The Price Is Right!)

 

[wishing_for_S]

Here is my thought:

Delivery estimates for VINs of ~ 20100 are end of September. Production has to be around 600 per week to keep up so assuming the rest of the year we stay at 600 we get 27300. Assuming that the factory is closed the last week of December and that VIN numbers may be a little off because they are now out of order that brings me to...26100 or so.

Wow!

 

[Johann Koeber]

Here is my thought:

Delivery estimates for VINs of ~ 20100 are end of September. Production has to be around 600 per week to keep up so assuming the rest of the year we stay at 600 we get 27300. Assuming that the factory is closed the last week of December and that VIN numbers may be a little off because they are now out of order that brings me to...26100 or so.

Wow!

Be careful.


Several cars were delivered in 2012. VINs did not start with 1 in 2013.

 

[AnalysiZ]

My guess is that the highest VIN delivered will be 21330.
They will probably produce more to be delivered early 2014 (New markets).

 

[wishing_for_S]

Good point Johann. Looking back it looks like 2500 cars were delivered last year. I don't have the annual report, but that looks about right based on the VINs posted in this forum.

Subtracting those and another 200 for floor models I get 23,500 this year.

 

[Raffy.Roma]

I think that the number of Model S produced in 2013 should overtake widely 20.000 to give an evidence to the American and European markets of the very good conditions of Tesla Motors.

 

[richkae]

I'll say 22500 Drew!

(The Price Is Right!)

22501

 

[kcveins]

My guess is that the highest VIN delivered will be 21330.
They will probably produce more to be delivered early 2014 (New markets).

This would be very surprising - my friend's delivery today was VIN 18,1**

 

[evme]

Musk has already stated that they have raised guidance to 23k-25k. And knowing Musk he generally under promises to beat estimates.

Tesla produced 5000 car in Q1 and 5454 in Q2. That is 10,454 cars for half of this year.

Musk said they are making over 500 cars a week. He also said something about 550 or 600 cars a week by end of the year.

So lets go over possible scenarios assuming 26 weeks:

500 a week - 13,000
550 a week - 14,300

That is my guess where the 23k-25k estimate came from when Musk said it.

600 a week - 15,600

Put me down for 26k in 2013.

 

[bonaire]

Musk has already stated that they have raised guidance to 23k-25k. And knowing Musk he generally under promises to beat estimates.

Can you cite when Musk raised guidance publically for 23-25K? I have heard of the 21500 guidance.

With 600 or so a week in terms of Vin # assignments, this is possibly their run-rate now in H2.

That means they need to deliver 6500 in Q3 and Q4 each.

Current Vin # assigned is just about at #22000 and some are October+ delivery dates. Subtracting out the Vin #s from 2012, it feels like we will still be 22000 for 2013.

 

[tdelta1000]

I say the number will be closer to 22.7K

 

[evme]

Can you cite when Musk raised guidance publically for 23-25K? I have heard of the 21500 guidance.

With 600 or so a week in terms of Vin # assignments, this is possibly their run-rate now in H2.

That means they need to deliver 6500 in Q3 and Q4 each.

Current Vin # assigned is just about at #22000 and some are October+ delivery dates. Subtracting out the Vin #s from 2012, it feels like we will still be 22000 for 2013.

Looking back, it was annual run rate of 23k-25k, not deliveries. Sorry about that. Though I still hold my estimate. 6500 per quarter is not exactly hard to hit. Think about it, they hit 500 more production when they were financially constrained. Now Tesla has 700 million. Tesla has also warned expenses will go up in Q3 so my guess is they are seriously ramping up productions.

Though the 23k-25k run rate estimate is old, the new run rate estimate is over 25k.(According to teslive)

 

[Cattledog]

So my VIN is 32XX and I was one of the last 15 or so assigned in 2012 - I'd imagine it's safe to say it was done 12/31 or at least the last week of December, not sure though, lots of scrambling at year's end and they likely jumbled the order some. They were at 21,7XX on 8/31 per VIN thread on Tesla site. If there was no skipping (seems like there may have been, not sure) that's 18,500 VINs in 8 months as kind of a top limit. Between number jumbling and some skipping, seems likely to be a couple thousand less than that. Still, if you guesstimate 16,000 in 8 months, and they are producing at a greater rate now than the average of the first 8 months, gotta be above 25K for the year..

 

[Johann Koeber]

Just want to remind you all that European VINs and deliveries make it more difficult to calculate production and delivery estimates. See my VIN below. Status: The factory is building your model S

Don't take that too seriously. It cannot take many weeks to build (even including the parking sensors).

Delivery was estimated for Sept/Oct, but some of my German friends were pushed to Dec.

Go figure.

 

[neroden]

I will predict "Tesla will build as many as they can without sacrificing build quality". I think they can sell as many as they build right now.

So really, we're betting on how fast the production line can ramp up. I don't feel that that's predictable. If the lead foremen get really good at training new hires, Tesla could ramp up quite spectacularly just by adding a shift.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Current Vin # assigned is just about at #22000 and some are October+ delivery dates. Subtracting out the Vin #s from 2012, it feels like we will still be 22000 for 2013.

For Europe there are even people with VIN 22000+ and a delivery timeframe of nov-dec (including 45 days for shipping and sub-assembly).