Production Rate (incl manufacturing waves)

[timdorr]

Gut feeling is there are about 987 production cars ahead of me (cancellations deducted), plus maybe 400 R's, plus maybe 350 USA/Canadian sigs left to build. That leaves 1,737 ahead of me. To get the car this year it actually has to be finìs by say Dec 15th or earlier (Boston delivery). That's a paltry 7 weeks away, or fully 248 cars per week average. Accurate? Possible for a 2012 delivery - or no?

They are somewhere around 200-250 per week, currently. That's only going to speed up as some parts in shortages clear up.

I'm also willing to bet that Sig production is slower because they're maintaining higher QC standards and probably double-check more steps along the way (in addition to doing training of 2nd shift workers). So, my hunch is that we'll see a big step up in the production rate once the general production starts. In fact, I'd love if someone would ask that questions on the shareholder call next Monday during the Q&A section. *wink wink*

 

[DouglasR]

So let me enter a new number for Forum Calculation Fodder. I'm thinking Flasher Z's SSig 1189 (vin will be higher) is about half way to my P1079 (vin will be lower - FYI, reservation set in motion with a deposit in the first week of August, 2009). Gut feeling is there are about 987 production cars ahead of me (cancellations deducted), plus maybe 400 R's, plus maybe 350 USA/Canadian sigs left to build. That leaves 1,737 ahead of me. To get the car this year it actually has to be finìs by say Dec 15th or earlier (Boston delivery). That's a paltry 7 weeks away, or fully 248 cars per week average. Accurate? Possible for a 2012 delivery - or no?

Would appreciate the much-better-minds taking a better stab at when I might actually see P1079 come to life upon my doorstep. Many thanks.

Right after mine (P983 - Seattle).

Seriously, it really all depends on that production ramp. Your numbers look about right, and 248 cars per week AVERAGE is not overly ambitious when you consider that the rate is currently anywhere from 100 to 250 per week, heading toward 400. But what is the actual rate now, and how fast will it increase? That's what we need to know to make a reasonable estimate.

My gut tells me that you and I are on the cusp: delivery to the doorstep could be late December to early January.

 

[aviators99]

I'm also willing to bet that Sig production is slower because they're maintaining higher QC standards and probably double-check more steps along the way

 

[FlasherZ]

I'm also willing to bet that Sig production is slower because they're maintaining higher QC standards and probably double-check more steps along the way (in addition to doing training of 2nd shift workers). So, my hunch is that we'll see a big step up in the production rate once the general production starts. In fact, I'd love if someone would ask that questions on the shareholder call next Monday during the Q&A section. *wink wink*

I heard today that as the production line quality is verified that the number of test miles on each car is being reduced, with one recent car being delivered with only 45 miles, as opposed to the 100+ they used to come with. I was told that for production cars, drive-testing would likely be on a sampling basis, rather than each car receiving a thorough test as is done for sigs today.

 

[Lyon]

I heard today that as the production line quality is verified that the number of test miles on each car is being reduced, with one recent car being delivered with only 45 miles, as opposed to the 100+ they used to come with. I was told that for production cars, drive-testing would likely be on a sampling basis, rather than each car receiving a thorough test as is done for sigs today.

That jives with my dad's recent delivery. His had 60 miles on it.

 

[NigelM]

I heard today that as the production line quality is verified that the number of test miles on each car is being reduced, with one recent car being delivered with only 45 miles, as opposed to the 100+ they used to come with. I was told that for production cars, drive-testing would likely be on a sampling basis, rather than each car receiving a thorough test as is done for sigs today.

OT but in arranging my insurance for Model S some companies wanted confirmation that it was being delivered with less than 99miles on the clock.

 

[timdorr]

Basically, I believe they're being extra careful with the Sigs on quality control, not just with the inspection and burn-in process, but also on the production line. I have a hunch they're going to get rid of some of the quality controls that take it too far when general production starts, so we'll see a bump up in production rate. This doesn't mean I think they're going to make a lower quality car, I think it just means they're going to feel more confident after producing 1200 Sigs

 

[Robert.Boston]

@timdorr: Put a different way, it's not that Tesla is aiming to make the Signatures of higher quality than production cars, but rather that Tesla is using the Signature run to refine QC processes.

 

[aviators99]

I'm assuming that production cars will begin entering the line today or tomorrow (I'm making an assumption that Canadian Sigs are still delayed, Doug...not forgetting about them, and I'm also calling R cars "production"). They should not be confident enough to reduce Q/A at all. The most recent cars being delivered still have enough quality problems such that they need to continue to tweak. Maybe a few weeks down the line, but not now (please).

 

[timdorr]

@timdorr: Put a different way, it's not that Tesla is aiming to make the Signatures of higher quality than production cars, but rather that Tesla is using the Signature run to refine QC processes.

Yeah, that's a more coherent way of what I was trying to say

 

[Doug_G]

We'll know whether they go CDN Sig or US R in a matter of days, I think. They're going to have to start issuing more delivery windows for non-US Sigs because they are obviously running out of them.

 

[timdorr]

We'll know whether they go CDN Sig or US R in a matter of days, I think. They're going to have to start issuing more delivery windows for non-US Sigs because they are obviously running out of them.

I wonder if they're going to build the CA sigs and hold them for delivery while the regulatory issues are worked out, or they're going to just skip to general production and switch back to CA sigs later.

 

[Lyon]

I wonder if they're going to build the CA sigs and hold them for delivery while the regulatory issues are worked out, or they're going to just skip to general production and switch back to CA sigs later.

But what would happen if they need to change something in order to deal with the Canadian regulatory issues? I suppose if it were minor the change could be done relatively easily but what if it were more complicated? I guess this could be a non-issue, I'm sure that they're aware of the regs and are confident that they can build a compliant vehicle.

At the very least I'm sure they could paint the bodies and have them ready to go.

 

[aviators99]

I wonder if they're going to build the CA sigs and hold them for delivery while the regulatory issues are worked out, or they're going to just skip to general production and switch back to CA sigs later.

It wouldn't make sense to build them yet, if the holdup is regulatory. They could theoretically be required to make changes. Also, since they've already told us that they won't be putting the sunset red in until all of the Signatures are built (worldwide), there is no real benefit to building before they are ready to ship.

 

[ckessel]

It wouldn't make sense to build them yet, if the holdup is regulatory. They could theoretically be required to make changes.

Absolutely. Plus, if Tesla is still having any supplier constraints they wouldn't want key supplies sitting cars that can't be shipped.

 

[Grendal]

I can't imagine that this is not posted elsewhere but it does fit here:

Elon Musk: Tesla has made 1,000 Model S frames

1000 frames done. My comment was:

Congratulations!! Now get back to work, you have 13,000 more customers waiting to get their car. And crank up production to 80 to 100 cars a day while you're at it. Hit full production capacity and then we'll celebrate.

The scene from "Star Wars" comes to mind. "Great kid! Don't get cocky."

 

[timdorr]

I can't imagine that this is not posted elsewhere but it does fit here:

Elon Musk: Tesla has made 1,000 Model S frames

1000 frames done. My comment was:

Congratulations!! Now get back to work, you have 13,000 more customers waiting to get their car. And crank up production to 80 to 100 cars a day while you're at it. Hit full production capacity and then we'll celebrate.

The scene from "Star Wars" comes to mind. "Great kid! Don't get cocky."

It was posted 2 pages back: Production Rate (incl manufacturing waves) - Page 18

 

[efusco]

I'm assuming that production cars will begin entering the line today or tomorrow (I'm making an assumption that Canadian Sigs are still delayed, Doug...not forgetting about them, and I'm also calling R cars "production"). They should not be confident enough to reduce Q/A at all. The most recent cars being delivered still have enough quality problems such that they need to continue to tweak. Maybe a few weeks down the line, but not now (please).

I sure hope you're right, would love to get a call with a Vin this week. Would make the wait a little more tolerable. The unknown is the hardest part.

 

[FlasherZ]

I sure hope you're right, would love to get a call with a Vin this week. Would make the wait a little more tolerable. The unknown is the hardest part.

You won't get a call. You'll have to call for it. Otherwise, you'll only get a call at the end of production and test, just as it's being shipped (in your case) to Chicago for its ride down to you.

 

[Andrew18]

I'm in Chicago waiting for sig 587.