Project Highland (Investor impact etc.)

[Krugerrand]

All the hysteria over stalks being removed is over blown. I bet they are still there. Its one thing to experiment on a niche cars, S and X. Another to risk billions of dollars in lost sales and back lash on the 3 and Y mainstream cars.

People love and embrace hysteria. They’ve expressed it every single time Tesla has done something non-traditional or unexpected or without explanation or, or, or.

The hysteria when Tesla took away the dash display was — hysterical (like funny haha hysterics).

The number of people who claimed they NEEDED to have a dash display to drive a car and how moving their eyes slightly right to see how fast they were going, or whether they were in D or R etc… was literally the end of the world, and dangerous — and again hysterical. A dash display that most people couldn’t even see properly because the steering wheel was always in the way —

You’re being a bit dramatic yourself. Getting rid of the stalks is NOT a risk of billions of dollars in lost sales. And ‘backlash’ — HYSTERICAL. People aren’t happy unless they’re complaining about something. Anything.

It’ll be fine. People will get used to no stalks and forget they even existed in cars and wonder why mfgers didn’t remove them decades ago.

 

[CYBRTRK420]

It’ll be fine. People will get used to no stalks and forget they even existed in cars and wonder why mfgers didn’t remove them decades ago.

This.

We have now owned our Model S Plaid for about 5 months and everytime I switch to my MYP, I am like: Why do I need all of this? Stalkless Yoke is great and after 2-3 days of driving feels like the most intuitive thing ever.

Stalkless Highland M3 with updated, semi-like steering wheel will look and feel good.

I was sceptical too, but it works. And it works good.

 

[Ogre]

What about Fremont? They would need to co-ordinate the production start. Otherwise, Fremont M3 will be Osborned to hell & back.

The new Fremont Model 3 LR has not started production yet either. Deliveries coincidentally enough start in June.

 

[Ogre]

This.

We have now owned our Model S Plaid for about 5 months and everytime I switch to my MYP, I am like: Why do I need all of this? Stalkless Yoke is great and after 2-3 days of driving feels like the most intuitive thing ever.

Stalkless Highland M3 with updated, semi-like steering wheel will look and feel good.

I was sceptical too, but it works. And it works good.

Have not driven stalkless design, but personally I think people who have not owned and driven one for a week or so need to give the criticisms of it a rest until they have tried it (for a week or more)!

I get the concerns around it, but we all make assumptions about things we've internalized over decades of use.

 

[Buckminster]

Tesla appears to be liquidating Model 3 ahead of refresh launch

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1664388710258061315

 

[Ogre]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1664388710258061315

This is very likely a render or a fake.

 

[FreqFlyer]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1664388710258061315

Bad CGI job, doesn't even look real. That image has been around sine the uncovered black Highland car was posted to Twitter.

 

[Buckminster]

The news here was not the piccy. The news was:

1. Tesla are still expected to uncover Highland in Shanghai soon
2. It boasts a slightly longer and sportier frame than its predecessor, along with a sleeker, more refined interior design that is sure to turn heads
3. This comes from Bloomberg...

 

[CYBRTRK420]

The news here was not the piccy. The news was:

1. Tesla are still expected to uncover Highland in Shanghai soon
2. It boasts a slightly longer and sportier frame than its predecessor, along with a sleeker, more refined interior design that is sure to turn heads
3. This comes from Bloomberg...

I don't think the frame will be any longer. The "slightly longer" probably means 10-50mm in total length simply based on new bumpers or a new front fascia. IIRC the Model S / X Refresh is also "slightly longer" simply becauase of slightly redesigned bumpers.

 

[Shelz003]

This is my thoughts on why March 1 is potentially different to battery Day and the AI days.

(I am thinking of posting it in the main thread, what do you guys think?)

1) Relevance - the presentation is literally about expanding the company, growing revenues, making more EVs, and making EVs more affordable. The purpose isn't hard to understand and it should be relevant to investors and markets.
FUD attack angle - they will run with the usual "it is a distraction", but that is a harder sell than Battery Day or AI Day

2) Comprehensive the plan is likely to be outlined in detail, what they will do and how they will do it.
I expect that to include most of the following:-

• 4680 ramp progress and future plans
• Lithium processing and raw materials sourcing.
• Factory expansions / new factories.
• Model 3 Highland and Gen3 cars
• Ramp of megapack.

FUD attack angle -Perhaps doubting Tesla's ability to execute, or saying the competition is coming..

3) Achievable

• 70% of the plan is probably things Tesla is already doing, Tesla has done, or others have done.
• 20% of the plan is probably things that are a simple extension of what Tesla is doing and don't require any significant new technologies.
• 10% of the plan many involve some new technologies but Tesla may have already prototyped/tested/proven these in advance e.g. 4680 LFP.

FUD attack angle - This is nothing new, the competition is coming, new technologies are unproven and will not work, Tesla's projections are overly optimistic.

(The parts below I probably will not put in the main thread - will cause too much argument and jumping down the rabbit hole)

Highland Name - a Highland Park Ford was trying to make transport affordable, Tesla is trying to make clean transport affordable. Apart from the addition of the word "clean" the aims and approaches are very similar. Tesla would be paying homage, and taking some inspiration from Ford. This name may make it easier for some to understand the relevance.

Where I think a working/prototype Highland assembly line would help is, with the FUD attack on achievable. That is consistent with the approach at battery Day and the AI days, show the current version of the line, and/or the products.

For the body-shop I think the highland line is some mix of front and rear castings and approaches already honed in Shanghai. Paint - time to paint and paint drying times are relevant, hopefully the new paint shop technology does a lot of the heavy lifting (or perhaps cars are unpainted). GA - my thoughts are, fewer assembly steps due to more preassembled sub-assemblies.

A wiring harness is one potential new technology, steer by wire and brake by wire are others.

They may be able to reduce time spent on the line not be increasing line speed, but by having fewer stations on the line and a shorter line. Effectively doing more useful work at each station.

Some of these ideas are stolen from the hints Connecting the Dots has already dropped, it will be interesting to see what his next video says.

I don't think the frame will be any longer. The "slightly longer" probably means 10-50mm in total length simply based on new bumpers or a new front fascia. IIRC the Model S / X Refresh is also "slightly longer" simply becauase of slightly redesigned bumpers.

Do you really thing there will be a refresh for the Model 3 or is it fiction? Some things just aren't adding up for me? Thoughts?

 

[MC3OZ]

Do you really thing there will be a refresh for the Model 3 or is it fiction? Some things just aren't adding up for me? Thoughts?

At the time I posted I was influenced by a "connecting-the-dots" video speculating on Project Highland...

Afterwards we had the Investor Day presentation with the presentation on the Gen3 car and the "unboxed" process.

I don't think Model 3 Highland will be "unboxed".

There are a lot of things that could be in the Highland refresh:-

• Front and rear castings
• Structural 4680 battery pack
• 48V Wiring harness
• HW4
• New electric motors

As it is being produced in China, we can probably rule out - Structural 4680 battery pack

New electric motors, 48V Wiring hardness and HW4 are pretty likely IMO, as are other minor changes which may reduce cost to build.

The name Highland and the association with the Highland Park factory may be overhyping things, but the the Gen3 car and the "unboxed" process is a level of innovation similar to Ford Highland Park.

What Gen3 unboxed and Model 3 highland might have in common is, more sub-assemblies including perhaps common 48V sub-assemblies which can be pre-tested.

As for the evidence that something is happening - production has apparently stopped in Shanghai, (at least the visible part of it) and security has been tightened,

Hopefully we will not have long to wait, it could be that the refreshed Model 3 is mostly about cost savings and doesn't live up to the hype.

 

[CYBRTRK420]

Do you really thing there will be a refresh for the Model 3 or is it fiction? Some things just aren't adding up for me? Thoughts?

I am convinced that Tesla is rolling out a refreshed Model 3 soon. With Model Y and production hell back in 2018, they have learned a lot when it comes to manufacturing. The Model Y has greater margins than the Model 3 because of the new manufacturing techniques.

This is why Tesla is puhsing Model Y sales so hard. It is cheaper to produce, despite being the physically larger vehicle. The Model 3 is now the oldest vehicle in the lineup, as S/X have received their upgrade in 2021 to line up with the new production standards.

Model 3 sales are dropping. Everyone wants a Y. Not because everyone needs an SUV (even though it is quite a big trend), simply because you get so much more for your money.

The Model 3 was unveiled in 2016, the design is now 7 years old. The Model S has received its first facelift after 4 years, the 2nd one after another 5. Model X was unchanged for 7 years, before getting the refresh.

The Model 3 is still a great car but simply ineffecient to produce. Upgrading the internal structure, boosting margins and production efficiency based on all the new knowledge, seems like a logical thing to do.

While reconstructing the entire car, it is just a small addition to change small things like different bumpers or headlights, which will make the Model 3 more attractive to new buyers or existing owners.

Combining a slight exterior facelift with a new, upgraded interior will create a large wave of Model 3 sales, especially considering the increased margin which would allow two things: 1. Make the Model 3 even cheaper, 2. make the car more premium for the same end price.

All things lead up to it. Shanghai halted Model 3 production, covered prototype vehicles spotted near the Tesla HQ, a supposed leak of the new front end (prototype) that matches with sightings of covered prototypes, a drone video from a covered test car with a new, stalk-less, steering-wheel.

For me it is out of question that the Model 3 will get a big upgrade. The only question that remains is: when?

 

[JupiterMan]

The only question that remains is: when?

a data point that could guide here is when the next ships from Shanghai will arrive to drop off current spec Model 3's to ex-USA markets, and is there a pause in new ships leaving with M3's pending the refresh?

its difficult to know whether Y or 3 is on the ships, but I would think that Tesla will try and hold back on any public announcement until those last ships have unloaded their Shanghai exports and that product has been sold to customers.

I would not be surprised if there is an increase in local M3 inventory whilst this happens, so that any update happens globally at once.

 

[FreqFlyer]

a data point that could guide here is when the next ships from Shanghai will arrive to drop off current spec Model 3's to ex-USA markets, and is there a pause in new ships leaving with M3's pending the refresh?

its difficult to know whether Y or 3 is on the ships, but I would think that Tesla will try and hold back on any public announcement until those last ships have unloaded their Shanghai exports and that product has been sold to customers.

I would not be surprised if there is an increase in local M3 inventory whilst this happens, so that any update happens globally at once.

With as many drones there are in the air, Shanghai has not started producing the Highland M3 yet (or what they call in the industry a mid market change MMC). When it does, the first cars in parking lot waiting for transport will be spotted.

I agree with the above posts about front and rear castings, and major other bits. The Y will get the same treatment, so same upgraded interior, 48V system, and updated exterior to bring the 3 and Y in line with each other style wise. Other carmakers have debuted new gen cars with far less improvements.

The gen 3 car factory will up and running next fall. So between then and now that car will be revealed. Maybe Tesla has learned from past reveals, reveal the car close to production instead of four and five year waits. Does Highland gets revealed along side Gen 3? Doubt it. Does Highland get debuted with CT? Probably.

 

[Buckminster]

Ok, this is something new, I always though GA2 and GA3 would be a second Model Y and Cybertruck lines, Joe knows something we don't?

Read a few other tweets above and bellow this one

https://twitter.com/x/status/1665819374073131017

Wouldn't it make sense to start producing Highland Model 3 in Texas?

I've kind of expected they had a Highland line coming on in Texas. Would not surprise me a bit.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1665825908261896192

 

[FreqFlyer]

Yes, it makes sense to built the 3 in Austin. The building still has massive space to utilize. Also signals to me Tesla is expecting a big sales jump of the 3 which means most likely a sizeable price drop to separate it from the Y. The 3 and Y will share more parts than ever before dropping costs for both. And with the Y selling at higher prices, that means higher margins.

 

[Ogre]

Hmm. Big price drop on the Model 3 plus the full $7,500 incentives would be a huge blow to Toyota and Honda. Model 3 is already more affordable than the Prius Prime.

Pretty much a huge blow to anyone not named Tesla who wants to sell sedans and compact-mid sized cars.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Hmm. Big price drop on the Model 3 plus the full $7,500 incentives would be a huge blow to Toyota and Honda. Model 3 is already more affordable than the Prius Prime.

Pretty much a huge blow to anyone not named Tesla who wants to sell sedans and compact-mid sized cars.

Too many unknowns with $7500 tax credits. When it becomes point of sale discount in 2024 ,then sales really take off, because then one's income bracket will not matter. Many people do not itemize on their taxes.

 

[Ogre]

Too many unknowns with $7500 tax credits. When it becomes point of sale discount in 2024 ,then sales really take off, because then one's income bracket will not matter. Many people do not itemize on their taxes.

The tax credits are definitely more appealing next year. Getting that $7500 shaved off the loan makes that value much more apparent when comparing car payments.

Cybertruck sales coming on line just in time to take advantage of that.