Pushing out my delivery to get AP 2.0

[RockinWithKids]

I would argue that, if not leasing, an $80k+ purchase is not a technology gadget and thus the logic of not buying technology (or a Tesla) doesn't apply. I would say if there is something you want in the purchase (unless you lease or have unlimited funds) you should wait for it to be there - especially if there is a good probability of it appearing. According to Amnon Shashua of Mobil Eye what is in the MS now is "very limited". To me it sounds like the OP has determined that the reward of waiting for v2 hardware is worth the risk of it not appearing by the time his MS is in production and thus he pushed his build out as far as he can.

My own thoughts (or confirmation bias depending on your POV) on the v2 hardware are here: Autopilot 2.0 hardware rumored this year on EyeQ3, article link enclosed - 8 cameras! - Page 4

Bragging rights wager: My money says that by the M3 reveal we'll have confirmation of v2 hardware being included in the MS/MX, or as an option to buy, that will light up semi-autonomous driving.

 

[brianman]

But it just seems like whenever this magic announcement happens, there will be new rumors about new features and new announcements that you'll regret if you don't wait even longer. That is just a painful way to live.

More data to mull over...

Some folks wanted the vehicle as fast as possible. They got Signature. For those that wanted performance, luckily it was available with Sig.

Some folks waited out the sigs. New car. New learning areas for the company. So they waited. And got production vehicles in late 2013. Some got perf.

Some perf enthusiasts held out for "better perf". The + suspension came out. There was some rejoicing and some buyers -- some new, some upgrades.

Then time passed and the D came out. There was some gnashing of teeth by the "late" buyers of +, that really wanted D. Fortunately the Performance flavor of D was announced at the same time. Lots of people giggled and happily bought new or upgraded.

About here is when I started looking at P85D a little more closely, with an eye on the "no sales tax" in WA state that was to expire in July 2015. I also had an eye on the "new blue" that was coming. But I wanted NG seats. In the front and rear. And that was a "cluster" from a buyer perspective. So I mulled it over and pulled the trigger on an inventory car (nice discount FTW!).

A few weeks (a week?) later P90D, in the new blue, was announced.

"OMG, the sky is falling?" No. The P85D is still "WTF awesome" (specs and marketing aside....).

I'm sure some people are eyeing the P90D thinking "two days after I buy, they'll announce P100D". They may be right. But, other than never buy, there's not much you can really do about it. Buy when you're ready, and try not to stress too much about "future hindsight"*.

* If you really can do something about "future hindsight", then use your time machine to make a bunch of money, buy the top of the line Model S, and donate a ton to causes you believe in. If you can't, then don't give yourself an ulcer worrying about it.

 

[HankLloydRight]

Bragging rights wager: My money says that by the M3 reveal we'll have confirmation of v2 hardware being included in the MS/MX, or as an option to buy, that will light up semi-autonomous driving.

Yeah, that's not going to happen. I think the M3 reveal will be about body style(s), battery size, range, safety, and maybe AWD/FWD options. And if what you say does happen, it's a huge Osborne Effect (which is what the OP is suffering from).

"Semi-autonomous" driving is so far away, it's not even funny. It's certainly not happening anytime in 2016.

 

[Canuck]

Bragging rights wager: My money says that by the M3 reveal we'll have confirmation of v2 hardware being included in the MS/MX, or as an option to buy, that will light up semi-autonomous driving.

I don't think v2 hardware will be sold as an option. Mass produced, the hardware is inexpensive and it gives Tesla further income down the line for people who don't enable it, and do later, or sell the car, and the new purchaser pays to enable it. That's simply a software update then cash in Tesla's pocket. Also, if people don't pay to enable it, and trade the car into Tesla, they can enable it and make more off a resale than if the car didn't have the hardware.

 

[HankLloydRight]

My guess of new hardware announcement is late December or early Jan at earliest and March at the latest.

I'd take that bet that no new "V2" AP hardware is announced in the time period you stated.

By this logic you really should not buy a Tesla. Or a smartphone. Or really anything technology related. I hope waiting works out for you, but realistically the only way to be happy with a car like the Tesla is to be happy with the features it has NOW and not look back. This "announcement" could come in 3 months, 6 months, a year, who knows. And most likely, the announcement will be that "X hardware" has been secretly installed in all cars rolling off the line for the last "Y months" in anticipation of "Z software update" that won't be ready for another year. At which point you'd be 2 years in to your lease and could just wait a year to swap out for the latest and greatest anyway.

I'd agree with this. Either buy now, or don't buy at all, because you'll never be really satisfied. There will always be new features and upgrades in the near future. But by the sound of it, the OP has more money than sense, and can sell off the lease of whatever car he gets and upgrade when the magic announcement does eventually happen.

 

[brianman]

I don't think v2 hardware will be sold as an option. Mass produced, the hardware is inexpensive and it gives Tesla further income down the line for people who don't enable it, and do later, or sell the car, and the new purchaser pays to enable it. That's simply a software update then cash in Tesla's pocket. Also, if people don't pay to enable it, and trade the car into Tesla, they can enable it and make more off a resale than if the car didn't have the hardware.

The 40/60 "sell 40, then cpo 60" model. Indeed.

 

[mjtgroup]

More data to mull over...

Some folks wanted the vehicle as fast as possible. They got Signature. For those that wanted performance, luckily it was available with Sig.

Some folks waited out the sigs. New car. New learning areas for the company. So they waited. And got production vehicles in late 2013. Some got perf.

Some perf enthusiasts held out for "better perf". The + suspension came out. There was some rejoicing and some buyers -- some new, some upgrades.

Then time passed and the D came out. There was some gnashing of teeth by the "late" buyers of +, that really wanted D. Fortunately the Performance flavor of D was announced at the same time. Lots of people giggled and happily bought new or upgraded.

About here is when I started looking at P85D a little more closely, with an eye on the "no sales tax" in WA state that was to expire in July 2015. I also had an eye on the "new blue" that was coming. But I wanted NG seats. In the front and rear. And that was a "cluster" from a buyer perspective. So I mulled it over and pulled the trigger on an inventory car (nice discount FTW!).

A few weeks (a week?) later P90D, in the new blue, was announced.

"OMG, the sky is falling?" No. The P85D is still "WTF awesome" (specs and marketing aside....).

I'm sure some people are eyeing the P90D thinking "two days after I buy, they'll announce P100D". They may be right. But, other than never buy, there's not much you can really do about it. Buy when you're ready, and try not to stress too much about "future hindsight"*.

* If you really can do something about "future hindsight", then use your time machine to make a bunch of money, buy the top of the line Model S, and donate a ton to causes you believe in. If you can't, then don't give yourself an ulcer worrying about it.

Hey Brian. Nicely said. I agree totally with your points especially for those of us who live in Washington State who lost the sales tax exemption in July 2015. Your silver Model S is beautiful!

 

[gsxdsm]

Interesting points being discussed. I'd like to share my reasoning here - would love for someone to shoot holes in it and call me an idiot (trust me, I'd like my car NOW!)

1. A poster mentioned they heard from someone at the Burbank opening that a hardware revamp was coming in December and Tesla would be pushing to pull forward as many sales as possible to 1. Meet 2015 numbers and 2. Clear out inventory of older parts/built vehicles. Just a rumor though. No biggie.

2. Referral program ending Oct 31st. Okay fine just trying to pull in more demand to hit 2015 numbers. Extended to December, no biggie, but maybe enough to make owners not feel so bad when updates are released.

3. MobileEye stating that a partner will release the new version of their system with more cameras in early 2016. Okay fine just speculation, not a big deal.

4. The Model X hardware platform launching and pictures showing dual cameras. Just rumors/speculation.

5. Owners that wanted a 2016 VIN are being offered delivery in December. Why? Why is Tesla pulling the demand forward? Meeting end year goals? Or clearing out existing parts?

All of that is just baseless rumors and guesses. Nothing concrete...

Then, when I heard with my own ears from someone, that new hardware was coming very soon, I couldn't ignore the previous points any more.

I agree that waiting will always be a fools choice because something new is always around the corner, but when it comes to AP I think it is a bit different. It's not just a suspension tweak or minor battery upgrade, this appears to be significant enough that the functionality of Autopilot (one of my main reasons for getting the car) would be greatly improved.

I could be wrong but worst case I wait a few months longer.

 

[jeffro01]

Interesting points being discussed. I'd like to share my reasoning here - would love for someone to shoot holes in it and call me an idiot (trust me, I'd like my car NOW!)

1. A poster mentioned they heard from someone at the Burbank opening that a hardware revamp was coming in December and Tesla would be pushing to pull forward as many sales as possible to 1. Meet 2015 numbers and 2. Clear out inventory of older parts/built vehicles. Just a rumor though. No biggie.

2. Referral program ending Oct 31st. Okay fine just trying to pull in more demand to hit 2015 numbers. Extended to December, no biggie, but maybe enough to make owners not feel so bad when updates are released.

3. MobileEye stating that a partner will release the new version of their system with more cameras in early 2016. Okay fine just speculation, not a big deal.

4. The Model X hardware platform launching and pictures showing dual cameras. Just rumors/speculation.

5. Owners that wanted a 2016 VIN are being offered delivery in December. Why? Why is Tesla pulling the demand forward? Meeting end year goals? Or clearing out existing parts?

All of that is just baseless rumors and guesses. Nothing concrete...

Then, when I heard with my own ears from someone, that new hardware was coming very soon, I couldn't ignore the previous points any more.

I agree that waiting will always be a fools choice because something new is always around the corner, but when it comes to AP I think it is a bit different. It's not just a suspension tweak or minor battery upgrade, this appears to be significant enough that the functionality of Autopilot (one of my main reasons for getting the car) would be greatly improved.

I could be wrong but worst case I wait a few months longer.

I wrestled with this for years, literally almost 3 years... The reality is you never know when the next changes are going to happen, you just don't. If you are going to hold out for this or that then you're never going to order the car... I'm not sure what you're expecting with "AP 2.0" that the current version doesn't already do now.

Jeff

 

[benf]

Interesting points being discussed. I'd like to share my reasoning here - would love for someone to shoot holes in it and call me an idiot (trust me, I'd like my car NOW!)

1. A poster mentioned they heard from someone at the Burbank opening that a hardware revamp was coming in December and Tesla would be pushing to pull forward as many sales as possible to 1. Meet 2015 numbers and 2. Clear out inventory of older parts/built vehicles. Just a rumor though. No biggie.

2. Referral program ending Oct 31st. Okay fine just trying to pull in more demand to hit 2015 numbers. Extended to December, no biggie, but maybe enough to make owners not feel so bad when updates are released.

3. MobileEye stating that a partner will release the new version of their system with more cameras in early 2016. Okay fine just speculation, not a big deal.

4. The Model X hardware platform launching and pictures showing dual cameras. Just rumors/speculation.

5. Owners that wanted a 2016 VIN are being offered delivery in December. Why? Why is Tesla pulling the demand forward? Meeting end year goals? Or clearing out existing parts?

All of that is just baseless rumors and guesses. Nothing concrete...

Then, when I heard with my own ears from someone, that new hardware was coming very soon, I couldn't ignore the previous points any more.

I agree that waiting will always be a fools choice because something new is always around the corner, but when it comes to AP I think it is a bit different. It's not just a suspension tweak or minor battery upgrade, this appears to be significant enough that the functionality of Autopilot (one of my main reasons for getting the car) would be greatly improved.

I could be wrong but worst case I wait a few months longer.

You make a very good case, but here is the only hole I see in all of that, personally:

What's "wrong" with AP right now, or what could be improved in the short-term, is software related. No doubt, fully-autonomous driving will require new hardware. But that is more than a lease term away (maybe even TWO leases away) right now. Elon has said himself that he thinks the technology will be there in 3 years, the regulations, not so much. And let's be honest, 3 years is very ambitious.

MobileEye has shown some amazing things that can be done with ONE camera (forget about any other hardware) just with the MobileEye 3 chip. The Model S doesn't do half of those things right now, due to software limitations. There is absolutely no reason for Tesla to start messing with hardware that they have barely scratched the surface with yet.

 

[Canuck]

Interesting points being discussed. I'd like to share my reasoning here - would love for someone to shoot holes in it and call me an idiot (trust me, I'd like my car NOW!)

1. A poster mentioned they heard from someone at the Burbank opening that a hardware revamp was coming in December and Tesla would be pushing to pull forward as many sales as possible to 1. Meet 2015 numbers and 2. Clear out inventory of older parts/built vehicles. Just a rumor though. No biggie.

2. Referral program ending Oct 31st. Okay fine just trying to pull in more demand to hit 2015 numbers. Extended to December, no biggie, but maybe enough to make owners not feel so bad when updates are released.

3. MobileEye stating that a partner will release the new version of their system with more cameras in early 2016. Okay fine just speculation, not a big deal.

4. The Model X hardware platform launching and pictures showing dual cameras. Just rumors/speculation.

5. Owners that wanted a 2016 VIN are being offered delivery in December. Why? Why is Tesla pulling the demand forward? Meeting end year goals? Or clearing out existing parts?

All of that is just baseless rumors and guesses. Nothing concrete...

Then, when I heard with my own ears from someone, that new hardware was coming very soon, I couldn't ignore the previous points any more.

I agree that waiting will always be a fools choice because something new is always around the corner, but when it comes to AP I think it is a bit different. It's not just a suspension tweak or minor battery upgrade, this appears to be significant enough that the functionality of Autopilot (one of my main reasons for getting the car) would be greatly improved.

I could be wrong but worst case I wait a few months longer.

No one can answer this question for you, because the answer is subjective and based on your personality. Some people can buy something and not look back when something new comes out, others will dwell forever if they missed out on something, and others are all along the spectrum in between. I missed out on AP and dual motors by a few months but would I have done it differently if I could in hindsight? Not a chance. I wouldn't want to live a day without the car. Sure AP is cool, and dual motors would be great for our weather and especially going to my cabin, and I really want both, but I'm never getting those days backed I lived with the car in the summer right before autopilot was released, and I had a blast with my family and my new toy. But I'm more on the spectrum of "sh!t happens" and life's far too short to dwell on the small stuff. And this really is small stuff in light of the bigger picture. If my regrets include missing autopilot/dual motors, then instead of regret I count my blessings, since that's a pretty good regret to have. You're going to have regrets after you buy when the new stuff comes out. That's just a given. I'm not sure "regret" is the right word but it's better than "envy" since I don't envy those with AP/dual motors. I'm really happy for them and I'm looking forward to joining the club one day.

 

[RockinWithKids]

Yeah, that's not going to happen. I think the M3 reveal will be about body style(s), battery size, range, safety, and maybe AWD/FWD options. And if what you say does happen, it's a huge Osborne Effect (which is what the OP is suffering from).

"Semi-autonomous" driving is so far away, it's not even funny. It's certainly not happening anytime in 2016.

We have a gentleman's wager where winner has bragging rights!

I agree the software that lights up semi-autonomous is a ways out. However, the hardware is here today. On March 23, 2015Amnon Shashua of MobilEye states: “By 2016 there’s going to be new launches by GM and Tesla as well” - Brains, Minds Machines Seminar Series: Computer Vision that is changing our lives - YouTube - Amnon's statement is at the 14 - 15 minute mark, but the whole thing is worth watching.

Combine that with the CEO's comments on MobilEye's investor call from 11/3/2015 (Mobile Eye’s Q3 Conference Call).....

“As we said, these capabilities are already implemented and will be implemented in the future semi-autonomous launches, including in 2016 by two of our OEM customers. The Tesla auto pilot feature is currently using a mono camera sensor for performing the most important understanding of the scene the visual interpretation. Our multiple camera sensor configuration launches are planned to begin as early as next year”

"So, currently, we are very happy with the introduction of Tesla with what we call Lane Keeping Assist, which is the best in class Lane Keeping Assist today. And we hear a lot of great feedbacks on this system. “

“What we presented is Lane Keeping Assist system rather than auto pilot system. Auto pilot system is going to be presented next year, where is going to be 360 degrees coverage around the vehicle and is going to be multiple cameras with additional sensors. What we have today is just a mono camera looking forward. So it’s a very limited input that we have on the road. But importance of this launch is, Tesla is willing to push the envelope faster and more aggressively than any other OEM, and definitely this is a very important in step forward to introduce the beginning of semi-autonomous application that will start being launched next year."

My thinking...... Tesla needs to have some special sauce to go with its FY results and/or the M3 reveal. The 8 cameras and additional EyeQ3 chips enabling the beginning of a semi – autonomous driving experience would be that special sauce. The marketing department can brand it as can be AP v2. Also, the nextgen MobilEye product, the EyeQ4, is not going to be available until 2018 – about the time the M3 shows up and who knows if the M3.

 

[gsxdsm]

I wrestled with this for years, literally almost 3 years... The reality is you never know when the next changes are going to happen, you just don't. If you are going to hold out for this or that then you're never going to order the car... I'm not sure what you're expecting with "AP 2.0" that the current version doesn't already do now.

Jeff

I've already ordered the car. It's just when I want it to enter production. It is between right now and 5 months. I plan to make a call in March if nothing is announced by then.

I am expecting AP 2.0 to have a stereo front camera and one or more rear facing cameras.

I am also expecting a CPU upgrade to the main nav/entertainment system.

- - - Updated - - -

You make a very good case, but here is the only hole I see in all of that, personally:

What's "wrong" with AP right now, or what could be improved in the short-term, is software related. No doubt, fully-autonomous driving will require new hardware. But that is more than a lease term away (maybe even TWO leases away) right now. Elon has said himself that he thinks the technology will be there in 3 years, the regulations, not so much. And let's be honest, 3 years is very ambitious.

MobileEye has shown some amazing things that can be done with ONE camera (forget about any other hardware) just with the MobileEye 3 chip. The Model S doesn't do half of those things right now, due to software limitations. There is absolutely no reason for Tesla to start messing with hardware that they have barely scratched the service with yet.

I don't think anything is wrong with AP right now. I think there are improvements that can only better had with additional hardware, mainly:

1. Improved automatic lane change (detecting cars approaching before they enter the blind spot area)
2. Improved blind spot detection
3. Distance detection using the cameras vs. front radar (distance to stop signs, traffic lights)
4. Intersection detection and crossing (using a high FOV camera)

- - - Updated - - -

We have a gentleman's wager where winner has bragging rights!

I agree the software that lights up semi-autonomous is a ways out. However, the hardware is here today. On March 23, 2015Amnon Shashua of MobilEye states: “By 2016 there’s going to be new launches by GM and Tesla as well” - Brains, Minds Machines Seminar Series: Computer Vision that is changing our lives - YouTube - Amnon's statement is at the 14 - 15 minute mark, but the whole thing is worth watching.

Combine that with the CEO's comments on MobilEye's investor call from 11/3/2015 (Mobile Eye’s Q3 Conference Call).....

“As we said, these capabilities are already implemented and will be implemented in the future semi-autonomous launches, including in 2016 by two of our OEM customers. The Tesla auto pilot feature is currently using a mono camera sensor for performing the most important understanding of the scene the visual interpretation. Our multiple camera sensor configuration launches are planned to begin as early as next year”

"So, currently, we are very happy with the introduction of Tesla with what we call Lane Keeping Assist, which is the best in class Lane Keeping Assist today. And we hear a lot of great feedbacks on this system. “

“What we presented is Lane Keeping Assist system rather than auto pilot system. Auto pilot system is going to be presented next year, where is going to be 360 degrees coverage around the vehicle and is going to be multiple cameras with additional sensors. What we have today is just a mono camera looking forward. So it’s a very limited input that we have on the road. But importance of this launch is, Tesla is willing to push the envelope faster and more aggressively than any other OEM, and definitely this is a very important in step forward to introduce the beginning of semi-autonomous application that will start being launched next year."

My thinking...... Tesla needs to have some special sauce to go with its FY results and/or the M3 reveal. The 8 cameras and additional EyeQ3 chips enabling the beginning of a semi – autonomous driving experience would be that special sauce. The marketing department can brand it as can be AP v2. Also, the nextgen MobilEye product, the EyeQ4, is not going to be available until 2018 – about the time the M3 shows up and who knows if the M3.

Yeah...I just don't know. There are these OBVIOUS signs - like the MobileEYE CEO publicly stating that improved hardware is coming next year, the images of Model X, folks inside of Tesla saying it's coming soon. My heart wants to start driving now, my head says wait just a little longer, the signs are obvious that something new is coming shortly...

 

[Canuck]

What's "wrong" with AP right now, or what could be improved in the short-term, is software related.

I see it as hardware related. The software has been in place for well over a year now (with Tesla -- not the public). It will improve but not nearly as significantly as with new hardware since, regardless of the improvement, the current hardware will never allow for AP to be used through intersections. That cuts off the vast majority of roads. Nothing software wise will ever change that, in my opinion, for the reasons set out in this thread:

Autopilot 2.0 Not Imminent Based On Production Model X Design Studio [Speculation] - Page 4

 

[HankLloydRight]

My thinking...... Tesla needs to have some special sauce to go with its FY results and/or the M3 reveal.

No they don't. The M3 reveal is just going to be about the M3. They're not going to confuse everyone with multiple announcements like a next gen AP system. Everytime Tesla had a press event/announcement recently, everyone was saying "oh, they're going to reveal the production Model X!!!!"... when these events were about dual motors (MS only), AP (MS only), Powerwall, etc. They didn't reveal the MX until the actual MX event, and that was only about MX.

edit to add: The Elon Musk/Tesla events are the polar opposite of the Steve Jobs/Apple events, where Jobs would come out and announce many new products and services all at once, over an hour or two.. leading to a massive group nerdgasm. Elon Musk OTOH, likes to come out, and announce just ONE new thing, and keep it very short and sweet. But everyone expects Musk to come out and pull a Jobs type reveal "oh, one more thing". That's not going to happen.

 

[RockinWithKids]

No they don't. The M3 reveal is just going to be about the M3. They're not going to confuse everyone with multiple announcements like a next gen AP system.

Good point.

 

[jeffro01]

I am also expecting a CPU upgrade to the main nav/entertainment system.

Man oh man did I wrestle with this one as well...

Jeff

 

[Ghost8785]

I just ordered my p10pd in September and last week I got an email saying my vehicle is on it's way. And today the 2.0 was released. How frustrating.

 

[3Victoria]

All cars now have new hw ...when was you build date ... if after first week in October you are good.

 

[Ghost8785]

All cars now have new hw ...when was you build date ... if after first week in October you are good.

No it was actually Sept 17th when I ordered it and I got an email last week on the 10th saying my tesla is on its way... so how would i go about getting that do you think?