I think that's quite unlikely. Why would Tesla roll out a brand new module architecture for 18650-cells, only to phase it out 6-10 months later? I don't think we'll see 21-70s in the Model S/X until 2018 at the earliest.
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Rumor: Price increase on April 16th for 100kwh Packs?
- Thread starter Gforce1
- Start date
A price increase happened around April last year, so it's not surprising. I'm more hopeful that this is also the introduction of the newer 2170 batteries given that the Gigafactory is now up and running. I'm keeping my fingers crossed for some additional announcement come Monday and that my car gets whatever is coming down the line.
That said, one can wait and wait and wait until "the next big thing" may, just possibly, come out. You'll probably kick yourself if something else is introduced 1-6 months after getting the keys, but when buying these models, that has to be part of the understanding.
That said, one can wait and wait and wait until "the next big thing" may, just possibly, come out. You'll probably kick yourself if something else is introduced 1-6 months after getting the keys, but when buying these models, that has to be part of the understanding.
Agree - at some point price will affect demand. Market valuation is a fickle thing - a slip here or there and the pendulum swings. I'm looking at trading out to a 100D now. Jumping the price won't incent me; it might incite me
boonedocks
MS LR Blk/Blk 19”
Why would there be a price INCREASE if the 2170 cells were introduced? Isn't the whole idea of the Gigafactory and the 2170 cells to REDUCE cost?
Personally I don't see it happening in any case for quite some time on the S' and X's but the question of price increase with the same capacity still begs no matter what.
Personally I don't see it happening in any case for quite some time on the S' and X's but the question of price increase with the same capacity still begs no matter what.
Maybe not you, but in the Model S spreadsheet there are now suddenly 4x 100D orders while the previous ~10 entries had a lot of 60s and not a single 100D. Could really just be random, but maybe Tesla already communicated this a few days earlier.Jumping the price won't incent me; it might incite me
Looks like a new Tesla strategy: Reverse Discounting
When I test drove the Model X earlier, the sales advisor said almost right away that the 100D would get a price increase on Sunday. When pushed he indicated a 2% increase. He didn't say anything about the other pack sizes.
If there are any changes to the vehicles, my guess is that the 75 and 90 kWh packs will be redone to the new module design. I can't see any good reason to offer two different module designs using the 18650s. This would mean that the 75 and 90 kWh packs would likely change capacities to some degree or other. One or both sizes could even be phased out.
The 100D currently uses 16 modules with 516 cells each, in a 86p6s configuration, while the 90D uses 16 modules with 444 cells each in a 74p6s configuration, and the 75 kWh pack *likely* uses 14 modules with 444 cells each in a 74p6s configuration.
Tesla could eliminate the current 75 kWh and 90 kWh packs, and offer these instead:
102.4 kWh (98.4 kWh available): 16 modules with 516 cells each, in a 86p6s configuration
89.6 kWh (85.6 kWh available): 14 modules with 516 cells each, in a 86p6s configuration
77.1 kWh (72.6 kWh available): 14 modules with 444 cells each, in a 74p6s configuration (possibly using the new module design, with a few blank cells)
The 90 kWh pack would get a 3.6 kWh bump in available capacity and would likely be cheaper to produce, as you could go from 16 to 14 modules. I'm a bit more unsure what Tesla would do to the 75 kWh pack. They might just keep using the old module design, or they might eliminate the pack entirely. They likely can't use 12 modules, as the pack voltage would be too low.
If there are any changes to the vehicles, my guess is that the 75 and 90 kWh packs will be redone to the new module design. I can't see any good reason to offer two different module designs using the 18650s. This would mean that the 75 and 90 kWh packs would likely change capacities to some degree or other. One or both sizes could even be phased out.
The 100D currently uses 16 modules with 516 cells each, in a 86p6s configuration, while the 90D uses 16 modules with 444 cells each in a 74p6s configuration, and the 75 kWh pack *likely* uses 14 modules with 444 cells each in a 74p6s configuration.
Tesla could eliminate the current 75 kWh and 90 kWh packs, and offer these instead:
102.4 kWh (98.4 kWh available): 16 modules with 516 cells each, in a 86p6s configuration
89.6 kWh (85.6 kWh available): 14 modules with 516 cells each, in a 86p6s configuration
77.1 kWh (72.6 kWh available): 14 modules with 444 cells each, in a 74p6s configuration (possibly using the new module design, with a few blank cells)
The 90 kWh pack would get a 3.6 kWh bump in available capacity and would likely be cheaper to produce, as you could go from 16 to 14 modules. I'm a bit more unsure what Tesla would do to the 75 kWh pack. They might just keep using the old module design, or they might eliminate the pack entirely. They likely can't use 12 modules, as the pack voltage would be too low.
More to the question - why not? It wouldn't be the first time a manufacturer has changed things up - certainly not for Tesla. The advantage is it gives precedence to a platform out there already. It may not be all that big a deal to accomplish and it rewards those who are paying more to begin with.
I've been expecting the 2170's to arrive this year and before Model 3 comes out with them - why would the more expensive Model S not get the superior 2170s?
I expect the 2170's will charge faster, too - compatible with the new V3 supercharger. How much will this new 2170 affect the current 18650-battery Model S?
I expect the 2170's will charge faster, too - compatible with the new V3 supercharger. How much will this new 2170 affect the current 18650-battery Model S?
There's nothing with the 21-70 format that will allow faster charging. The format is likely a obstacle to faster charging, as the delta T between the center of the cell and the surface of the cell increases with size. If there is faster charging in the very near future, it will be driven by improved chemistry. And this chemistry could be incorporated into the 18650s without much hassle.
After thinking a bit more about what I think will happen next with the Model S/X battery packs, here's my thinking:
1. The 90 kWh pack is updated to the new module design, and goes from 16 to 14 modules. (Soonish.)
2. The 90 and 100 kWh packs get cells with the newest chemistry, upping the capacities by ~5% and potentially improving charging power. (This year.)
3. The current 75 kWh pack is eliminated, replaced by a lightly modified top spec 21-70-based Model 3 pack, which is also around 75 kWh. (This year.)
4. The 90 kWh and 100 kWh packs are completely redesigned, the 75 kWh pack uses 8 modules like before, while the ~95 kWh pack uses 10 modules and the ~110 kWh pack uses 12 modules. (2018-ish.)
This allows Tesla to first phase out the outdated 18650 module design, then they phase out 18650s entirely, going to a single module design across all vehicles.
henderrj
Active Member
It's been more than 4. Months since I started the thread Why Model S/X will not see 2170 cells any time soon. Not sure if I agree with everything I said then but I do think we are still 2-4 years away from eliminating the 18650s. But I like Yggdrasill's thought of beginning to use them for a new higher capacity pack, but at least 6 months after the 3 is shipped, probably more than a year.
As far as this rumor, if it happens at all it would be just a reflection of value - no specific new feature driving it. Just my thoughts.
OBX John
Autonomous Driving Enthusiast
We are about to test drive a MS 100D, and our sales rep told us about the increase - I'm guessing it will be $2000-3000. Not sure if that's going to push me to put down a deposit this weekend, but it might.
So long as demand remains strong, they are smart to charge as much as we will pay.
So long as demand remains strong, they are smart to charge as much as we will pay.
OBX John
Autonomous Driving Enthusiast
Yeah, I'm most likely going to put an order in just to keep maximum flexibility. I've done the design studio so many times there's no doubt as to what I want if I buy new.
But a used P90D refresh with AP1 is so tempting...
Tsla will increase price if there os demand for it. According to last quarter's sales numbers they are doing fine. There seems to be a strong demand so a price increase is warranted.
So far it seems like tesla is playing the quarterly demand games.
Summer of 2016 it was discounting.
Fall 2016 it was autopilot 2.0
Winter 2016 is the end of free supercharging
Now it is end of 60KWh model s which is the best value for the money tesla.
I suspect next quarter will be announcement of price increase since nothing new is expected except for the model 3.
Get use to price increases from now on. As long as tesla can sell their cars they will keep peice high.
So far it seems like tesla is playing the quarterly demand games.
Summer of 2016 it was discounting.
Fall 2016 it was autopilot 2.0
Winter 2016 is the end of free supercharging
Now it is end of 60KWh model s which is the best value for the money tesla.
I suspect next quarter will be announcement of price increase since nothing new is expected except for the model 3.
Get use to price increases from now on. As long as tesla can sell their cars they will keep peice high.
DIL
Member
talking to SA today at dublin location, he volunteered that sometime early next week 100D would see a price increase. didn't say how much but that it wasn't for any new features, just that 100kW packs were "more expensive to build" than originally anticipated. i think it's a market adjustment based on demand and reshuffling of model lineup with 60 going away
The $3000 upgrade price over the 90 battery pack was a shock when we saw it - and we immediately placed our order on the first day in January.
The price difference between the P90D and P100D was around $10K when the 100 battery pack was introduced last year, and we were expecting to see the 100D come in with a similar increase.
The S 90D is rated at 294 miles. The S 100D is rated at 335 miles - but new S 100D's are seeing 344 miles at 100%. Tesla's published ranges put the 100D with 14% more range, while the actual numbers are 17%.
A heck of a deal for only an extra $3K - and it makes sense Tesla could increase the 100D prices.
The price difference between the P90D and P100D was around $10K when the 100 battery pack was introduced last year, and we were expecting to see the 100D come in with a similar increase.
The S 90D is rated at 294 miles. The S 100D is rated at 335 miles - but new S 100D's are seeing 344 miles at 100%. Tesla's published ranges put the 100D with 14% more range, while the actual numbers are 17%.
A heck of a deal for only an extra $3K - and it makes sense Tesla could increase the 100D prices.
Just to say I was told by a Tesla employee that there was a price rise coming on the 17th which would tie in with the 16th rumours as we are in a different time zone (and we always get things from Tesla a bit later )
Q: Asked was it just currency?
A: don't know
Q: Asked whether it was X and/or S?
A: don't know
Q: Asked whether it was all battery size?
A: don't know
Q: Asked whether any new features or a change of option packages?
A: don't know
Q: Asked if he knew but couldn't tell me
A: no
So either he does not know which is pretty likely, or he is too professional to tell me and Tesla made a good hire in taking him on or...both, which I think is most likely.
)Q: Asked was it just currency?
A: don't know
Q: Asked whether it was X and/or S?
A: don't know
Q: Asked whether it was all battery size?
A: don't know
Q: Asked whether any new features or a change of option packages?
A: don't know
Q: Asked if he knew but couldn't tell me
A: no
So either he does not know which is pretty likely, or he is too professional to tell me and Tesla made a good hire in taking him on or...both, which I think is most likely.
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