Rumors - upcoming features, costs, etc.

[tezco]

This actually makes the most sense. They're already selling RWD Model S as fast as they can make them, so why divert resources to a problem that doesn't yet exist?

The problem is a leakage of sedan sales to manufacturers that offer an AWD sedan. Many of these drivers aren't shopping for an SUV, so the X doesn't fit the bill.

I don't think they would be 'diverting' any reasoruces. I would think the Model X AWD system would be exactly the same as the Model S. Same platform and all. Not to mention they are supposedly already using Model Ss as AWD mules, the work is most likely already done.

+1 The delayed launch of the X has now probably overtaken the planned release date for the AWD S.

 

[dirkhh]

The problem is a leakage of sedan sales to manufacturers that offer an AWD sedan. Many of these drivers aren't shopping for an SUV, so the X doesn't fit the bill.

So what? They can't make enough Model S to meet demand.
Their goal is to get Model 3 out.
I don't see how the distraction of an AWD Model S helps with that.

 

[Joel]

So what? They can't make enough Model S to meet demand.
Their goal is to get Model 3 out.
I don't see how the distraction of an AWD Model S helps with that.

You say distraction, I say higher margins :smile:

 

[dirkhh]

You say distraction, I say higher margins :smile:

Look up "opportunity cost". Tesla is still a small, resource constraint company.
Could they do it? Sure.
Would it be smart given their stated goals? I don't think so.

 

[Joel]

Look up "opportunity cost". Tesla is still a small, resource constraint company.
Could they do it? Sure.
Would it be smart given their stated goals? I don't think so.

Tesla's stated goal is to use the proceeds of the S and X platform to fund the Model 3 platform. Becoming more profitable with an AWD S is consistent with that goal. It's the same reason 60kwh S' and lower optioned cars are pushed back in the queue. A small, resource constrained company needs to be as profitable as possible. It is smart and consistent with their stated goals, which is one reason AWD S will be out before X.

 

[AlMc]

You say distraction, I say higher margins :smile:

Look up "opportunity cost". Tesla is still a small, resource constraint company.
Could they do it? Sure.
Would it be smart given their stated goals? I don't think so.

Well, there are the two sides to the coin. The decision is way above my pay grade. On the one hand you have a car that is in such demand, as is, that you can't make them fast enough AND gives you increasingly higher margins. On the other hand, you want to test your AWD system and maybe some other 'new features' that you may be able to command higher margins with before you bring out your next car, the X, that better be close to perfect.

Decisions, decisions.

 

[richkae]

I don't think they would be 'diverting' any reasoruces. I would think the Model X AWD system would be exactly the same as the Model S. Same platform and all. Not to mention they are supposedly already using Model Ss as AWD mules, the work is most likely already done.

Doing engineering prototyping and bringing a polished product to market are very different things.
Tesla doesn't have surplus employees, any minute spent to bring the AWD Model S to market must cost time from work on the Model X.
It may not be engineering, it might be logistics, supply chain planning, process, building the assembly line, integration testing, crash testing.

It might even be true that the vast majority of the work is done - and that trading 1 month of delay on the Model X means bringing AWD Model S cars to market a year earlier than they otherwise would.
That would still likely be a bad business decision. One reason is that everyone knows about the Model X and that it is late - but there are no expectations for an AWD Model S.

 

[Joel]

Doing engineering prototyping and bringing a polished product to market are very different things.
Tesla doesn't have surplus employees, any minute spent to bring the AWD Model S to market must cost time from work on the Model X.
It may not be engineering, it might be logistics, supply chain planning, process, building the assembly line, integration testing, crash testing.

It might even be true that the vast majority of the work is done - and that trading 1 month of delay on the Model X means bringing AWD Model S cars to market a year earlier than they otherwise would.
That would still likely be a bad business decision. One reason is that everyone knows about the Model X and that it is late - but there are no expectations for an AWD Model S.

I have to disagree with you on expectations. Tesla is introducing a new interior for S and an AWD S because the German market expected these features at launch. Tesla can and will do better in Germany because they did not meet expectations there. Tesla will be the first to state (and Elon has said publicly) that the German launch was not a failure, but it did miss the mark.

 

[ecarfan]

Tesla is introducing a new interior for S...

And your source for that statement is...?

 

[offset]

The magic behind the Tesla vehicle model is that once the platforms are built the body/coachwork can come down like rapid fire. It would not shock me if they made a Model S AWD. Heck that would fast track the Model X as far as development, that's if it needs the help.

I also wouldn't doubt that there is a 2 door coupe to follow, or a anything for that matter. Also what's to stop a "trade in your tesla coachwork" program? Drop your car off at Tesla as a 4 door model S and pick it up as a ______. As long as the platform and wheelbase is the same there is almost nothing stopping you from doing this other than money.

Then again who am I but a florist with crazy thoughts.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I see your point.
But the bigger goal is Model 3 regarding true affordability. So to me this is about opportunity cost and distraction. Adding an AWD Model S doesn't solve any problems for Tesla and (given they are supply constraint) doesn't really add to cash flow. But it adds risk to delay a Model 3 launch. So I stick to my statement. There would be no excuse to do so.

4W.D. (Two Ratio*) is an important part of the market. Adding 4WD to the Model S might not be a major distraction.

* Rather than Low Ratio

 

[ElSupreme]

Doing engineering prototyping and bringing a polished product to market are very different things.

I agree. But they are doing polished engineering for the Model X, and have already 'fit' it into a Model S. Not to mention the 'fit' would probably be the same for both vehicles considering they are built on the same platform. Sure there is some work to do, but not a lot.

Tesla doesn't have surplus employees, any minute spent to bring the AWD Model S to market must cost time from work on the Model X.
It may not be engineering, it might be logistics, supply chain planning, process, building the assembly line, integration testing, crash testing.

But the logistics, supply chain planning, process, building the assembly line, integration testing, are all being done for the Model X. Adding the Model S isn't changing anything. Maybe changing some forcast numbers, but that doesn't increase work load.

It might even be true that the vast majority of the work is done - and that trading 1 month of delay on the Model X means bringing AWD Model S cars to market a year earlier than they otherwise would.
That would still likely be a bad business decision. One reason is that everyone knows about the Model X and that it is late - but there are no expectations for an AWD Model S.

Making sure the Model X drivetrain fits into the Model S isn't taking extra time. There are lots of design requirements. All of them require time. Making a single solution for a single platform isn't something that is extra. It is smart business practice.

I can assure you the Model S AWD isn't taking 'extra' time from the Model X.

 

[Joel]

And your source for that statement is...?

Elon Musk. At the shareholder meeting, Elon announced Tesla is upgrading the seats.


33:57 - 2014 Shareholder Meeting | Tesla Motors

 

[ecarfan]

Yes the seat upgrade is well known. But "introducing a new interior" would be much more than just adjusting the seat cushion.

Modifying the feel of the seats is not the same as "introducing a new interior".

 

[Rodolfo Paiz]

We've all seen the "sled" with the four wheels, battery pack, and motor(s). It's in pictures, it's in the stores, everywhere. That's the part where you put one or two motors to get RWD or AWD, and (other than some cosmetic fitting of the frunk parts above it) that's the only part of the car that needs to get modified. Given that Tesla has already stated that every Model X will be AWD, I must assume that they have put huge amounts of R&D into this issue. So I have the following thoughts:

1. The more testing, the better.
2. Recouping that R&D investment over a greater number of units sold is better and quicker.
3. Increasing margins with an AWD Model S is better.
4. Market testing to see how many people choose AWD is better for Tesla than not knowing.
5. I see no significant distraction or added cost in making an AWD Model S. Key word is significant.
6. Tesla has a marketing strategy of not advertising, but seeking unpaid publicity/promo through a string of interesting announcements.

I would consider it a perfectly reasonable and intelligent business decision for them to announce an AWD Model S right now, so long as (key caveat) they think the AWD is truly ready for prime time right now. But it would have to be right now (say before September 15th), and it would have to be ready to build immediately ("starting today you can configure your Model S with AWD..."). The reason for those limitations is that it would be unwise to announce an AWD Model S too close to the initial shipments of the Model X... then it really would be a distraction. So now, or after Model X starts shipping and they get that wave of public attention.

 

[Joel]

Yes the seat upgrade is well known. But "introducing a new interior" would be much more than just adjusting the seat cushion.

Modifying the feel of the seats is not the same as "introducing a new interior".

What would you define as a new interior then? When Tesla upgrades the seats (which will be more than adjusting the seat cushions) and offers a four seat interior variant. I would classify that as a new interior.

Clearly the 17 center console is not changing. But seat upgrades and some storage (yes, the drop in console is long over due and I have no source that the upgraded interior will have more storage. But it's reasonable to believe). Also, if Tesla is manufacturing a Model S with four seats and AWD, it'd imagine the newer Model S is going to compete with the Panamera Turbo, Mercedes S class, and others in that high-end luxury class (which would require an upgraded interior).

Tesla filed this with the NHTSA in January 2014 for a 2014 release: ftp://ftp.nhtsa.dot.gov/mfrmail/org9130.pdf

Note the restraint systems and the Motor/Drive Unit options.

 

[ecarfan]

Model S 4WD

What would you define as a new interior then? When Tesla upgrades the seats (which will be more than adjusting the seat cushions) and offers a four seat interior variant. I would classify that as a new interior.

To me a "new interior" means that you open the doors and look inside and the interior design looks "new" as in numerous significant changes that are obvious at a glance.

Elon has stated more than once that earlier this year the front seat bases have been internally modified to make them more comfortable. Appearance of the seats hasn't changed. That is not a "new interior" and there have been no other visually apparent interior changes this year that I am aware of. Yes there is now an optional center console, but it's optional.

If Tesla significantly redesigns the front seats so they look obviously different from what we have now and reconfigures the rear seats into a two-seat only arrangement then yes I would call that a "new interior" (though obviously a new two-seat only arrangement would be an option, not the standard arrangement) but I have not seen any evidence presented that this is likely to happen anytime soon, nor do I think it is necessary to do this year to maintain customer demand for the S.

 

[kalikgod]

Actually, it would solve one problem: any unforeseen AWD problems. Tesla should limit the number of potential (new) problems with X. The falcon wing doors and AWD are two very large engineering feats (more with the falcon wing doors than AWD), and it would be best to have S introduce AWD and handle any unforeseen problems because it will not have as large of a potential negative effect on the S than X. If there is a problem with AWD, better to deal with it on the product that has been in production for over two years than X. It could hurt the overall perception of X if AWD has some minor issue.

I think the engineering of a dual electric motor, dual gear ratio AWD system is more of a challenge/risk than the falcon wing doors. There will be a lot of tuning that will need to be done to perfect this system. Other OEMs have had trouble with just accelerator mapping to a single electric motor.

I feel like this will be offered as a high $ option, performance package only. It would give some people a reason to upgrade and get AWD into customers hands to start collecting real world usage data before Model X. It may come as an option to all Model Ss at some point, but that will probably be into the future.

 

[Joel]

I think the engineering of a dual electric motor, dual gear ratio AWD system is more of a challenge/risk than the falcon wing doors. There will be a lot of tuning that will need to be done to perfect this system. Other OEMs have had trouble with just accelerator mapping to a single electric motor.

I feel like this will be offered as a high $ option, performance package only. It would give some people a reason to upgrade and get AWD into customers hands to start collecting real world usage data before Model X. It may come as an option to all Model Ss at some point, but that will probably be into the future.

I agree with this. I believe Tesla would release it before X because they would want to perfect this system on S when all of the systems are refined rather than X. I could be wrong, but we'll find out shortly. I'd imagine Tesla would announce it in September for sometime in Q4 delivery. Just a guess.

 

[tezco]

AWD is ordered on 80% of Audi's. You've got to offer this to remain competitive in the luxury sedan market. Road and Track found that AWD handled better than RWD in most situations, and it would certainly improve handling and acceleration of the S. Tesla has had plenty of time to get AWD ready for the S while they have been trying to get those blinkin' Falcon door to work. I suspect that currently it's just a timing issue being debated in Marketing and Sales.