Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Fire at Podolsky Mechanical Plant (Manufacturer of Missile Components) in Moscow | 4 hrs ago
Sabot? If the shoe fits...
Cheers!
Sabot? If the shoe fits...
Cheers!
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
Difficult to say if it will have an impact on missile production or not. If there were a lot of hard to replace components there, they might be a long time coming. Best case is the fire hit the part of the warehouse where electronics storage is because they would have a lot of problems replacing that gear.
But... it's not at all clear what sort of components they make or even if missile component manufacture was in the part of the plant that burned.
I haven't checked this myself, but I've seen a report that:
"The rocket crash site in Poland is located at the latitude of Kiev and the longitude of Lvov"
suggesting a programming error of the missile coordinates by RU.
"The rocket crash site in Poland is located at the latitude of Kiev and the longitude of Lvov"
suggesting a programming error of the missile coordinates by RU.
petit_bateau
Active Member
The MLRS that was apparently in use in the video I saw a few weeks back was mounted on an LCT (landing craft, tank) not on a barge. We've seen evidence of LCT-based MLRS previously in the war, also in the riverine and littoral areas near Kherson.
By the way these MLRS are of the unguided variety, not the HIMARs variety. Very difficult for Ukraine to give HIMARs the appropriate level of force protection if they go LCT-mount.
What is happening on Kilburn Spit is unclear
Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App
@ChrisO_wiki: 1/ Interesting things appear to be happening currently on the Kinburn Peninsula (often erroneously called the Kinburn Spit), south-west of Kherson. Although exactly what is still uncertain, it's worth ...…
threadreaderapp.com
There are also rumours regarding other left bank (east bank) locations.
Ahh, I was wondering about a HIMARS on a barge/Landing craft. So they are using something like a bm21 with the improved sighting and distribution adjustments. There is a good video of that somewhere on youtube, Ukraine made modifications to the sighting and launch pattern to achieve much more accurate aim. Well the kinburn spit/peninsula is going to be a place to watch going forward.
It now appears that they evacuation of Kherson is going to be a case study going forward, russia did almost everything right in very difficult circumstances to pull all the best units, insert some mobilized, then pulled even more units. They kept the disinformation campaign in full swing, moved a lot of units and even some heavy weapons before anyone really cottoned on. The post Kherson pullout analysis shows that river barges were running and returning empty which was the real indicator that they were just bugging out, else they would have returned with fuel and ammo and more mobilized as they had been doing just a few weeks earlier.
It is unclear to me that very many russian soldiers were left in Kherson nor that thousands tried to swim the river. I've seen the same pictures of the abandoned helmets and armor but I didn't see all the other stuff that should have been there if they were swimming. Boots, shirts, washing machines, etc. Rather it looked like some folks getting the weight out and taking light skiffs. Also, bodies float..you'd have reams of bodies washing ashore downstream.
It now appears that they evacuation of Kherson is going to be a case study going forward, russia did almost everything right in very difficult circumstances to pull all the best units, insert some mobilized, then pulled even more units. They kept the disinformation campaign in full swing, moved a lot of units and even some heavy weapons before anyone really cottoned on. The post Kherson pullout analysis shows that river barges were running and returning empty which was the real indicator that they were just bugging out, else they would have returned with fuel and ammo and more mobilized as they had been doing just a few weeks earlier.
It is unclear to me that very many russian soldiers were left in Kherson nor that thousands tried to swim the river. I've seen the same pictures of the abandoned helmets and armor but I didn't see all the other stuff that should have been there if they were swimming. Boots, shirts, washing machines, etc. Rather it looked like some folks getting the weight out and taking light skiffs. Also, bodies float..you'd have reams of bodies washing ashore downstream.
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NATO has said the munitions which struck Poland was a Ukrainian S-300 air defense missile. They have decided not to exercise Article 5 against Ukraine (little sarcasm there). Just what it appears on the package. A stray piece of munitions that landed in an awkward place. No boom today.
Since the collapse of Kherson, it's become increasingly clear how completely demoralized, under equipped, and just worthless the Russian troops are. Russian commanders are unwilling to try to exercise even simple battlefield tactics due to fear of friendly fire and miscommunication. As a result they are taking hue losses trying to capture strategically unimportant locations. This has been true for some time, but it's gotten worse and more obvious lately as they've burned through their experience troops and are just throwing mobilized soldiers at the Ukrainian positions.
The fact that we've heard so much noise about multiple beachheads on the left bank of the Dnipro suggests they've been completely ineffective in establishing an effective fallback line. Should be relatively easy to defend against a massive river/ gulf crossing but they can't even do that.
Right now only thing that seems to be keeping Ukraine back is getting a big enough beachhead to secure equipment transfer and supply lines. Once that is done, seems very unlikely Russia will be able to hold anything they currently hold in Kherson and perhaps Crimea.
Since the collapse of Kherson, it's become increasingly clear how completely demoralized, under equipped, and just worthless the Russian troops are. Russian commanders are unwilling to try to exercise even simple battlefield tactics due to fear of friendly fire and miscommunication. As a result they are taking hue losses trying to capture strategically unimportant locations. This has been true for some time, but it's gotten worse and more obvious lately as they've burned through their experience troops and are just throwing mobilized soldiers at the Ukrainian positions.
The fact that we've heard so much noise about multiple beachheads on the left bank of the Dnipro suggests they've been completely ineffective in establishing an effective fallback line. Should be relatively easy to defend against a massive river/ gulf crossing but they can't even do that.
Right now only thing that seems to be keeping Ukraine back is getting a big enough beachhead to secure equipment transfer and supply lines. Once that is done, seems very unlikely Russia will be able to hold anything they currently hold in Kherson and perhaps Crimea.
X Fan
Active Member
"a NATO country diplomat told me: “This is getting ridiculous. "
I don't gamble but I'd put $20 on it being a French or German diplomat.
I don't know why you would have to be any particular nationality to be pissed about the Ukrainian response here.
I am willing to give them the benefit of the doubt and assume that they assumed it was a Russian launched rocket. This is certainly reasonable.
OTOH, if they knew the situation and engaged in such extreme misinformation....
I think the NATO nations bordering Russia should move their missile batteries to the border and shoot down any missiles within range. It would help Ukraine and protect themselves. A purely defensive move.
They should move them to the Russian border and shoot them down over Russia. If anyone's civilians are to be subjected to the side effects of war, it should be the aggressor.
X Fan
Active Member
why, because the French and German support has been pathetic at best.
Stoltenberg was a bit vague today about the incident but NATO should have exact tracking of all missiles close to the borders. It's their job. The statement was probably the best solution in the current situation. IMHO.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
The MLRS that was apparently in use in the video I saw a few weeks back was mounted on an LCT (landing craft, tank) not on a barge. We've seen evidence of LCT-based MLRS previously in the war, also in the riverine and littoral areas near Kherson.
By the way these MLRS are of the unguided variety, not the HIMARs variety. Very difficult for Ukraine to give HIMARs the appropriate level of force protection if they go LCT-mount.
What is happening on Kilburn Spit is unclear
Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App
@ChrisO_wiki: 1/ Interesting things appear to be happening currently on the Kinburn Peninsula (often erroneously called the Kinburn Spit), south-west of Kherson. Although exactly what is still uncertain, it's worth ...…
There are also rumours regarding other left bank (east bank) locations.
Rocket equipped LCTs were a late war US invention in WW II. They were used to keep the enemy's heads down as the Marines disembarked in some of the last invasions of the war. They aren't very effective at destroying enemy positions, but are effective at keeping the enemy from shooting back at the most critical point of an invasion.
I don't see the Kilburn Spit as a great spot to develop a large beachhead to capture the entire left bank of the river. Getting off the spit requires fighting through swampland. It does seal off the Dnipro from any Russian river boats and gives the Ukrainians a spot to place Neptunes that can have a clear shot at anything along the west coast of Crimea.
The rumors about settlements on the left bank upstream being taken are interesting. I have read that the Russians have been pulling most of their troops back 15 Km from the river to get out of HIMARS range. If they are, that is a horrible strategic mistake, but then this is a war full of Russian mistakes. The river stands as their best defensible barrier for the south. If they let the Ukrainians get established in an exploitable spot or spots on the left bank, then their entire defense of the south is compromised.
There are stories the Russians are shifting some of the troops evacuated from Kherson further east expecting the Ukrainians to do an end run around the Dnipro. If so they are probably leaving their most depleted units to defend the area south of Kherson.
If the Ukrainians will end up being allowed to move heavy equipment across the Dnipro with little Russian interference, their next offensive in the south could end up looking like the Battle for France after Operation Cobra in 1944. Once the Allies broke out of the Normandy beachhead it was a race for the German border. At one point the Allies had to stop and refuel and rearm because they were badly outrunning their supply lines. That allowed the Germans to escape across the German border.
I see an opportunity here for Poland to help Ukraine further. They could place NATO air defenses on the border with Ukraine and announce that they will be shooting down any missile within range, even if over Ukraine. That will give the defenses at Kviv some flank support and adds air defenses the Russians can't do anything about. The Polish can leave the air defense radar on all the time because any attack on the Polish air defense systems would be an Article 5 violation.
We have a lot of fog of war going on. Throughout the war these rumors have tended to be fairly accurate, though some have not. We'll see what happens.
As I said above, if the Ukrainians are establishing bridgeheads in exploitable locations on the left bank, this could turn out to be very bad for Russia. All of Kherson Oblast could be in Ukrainian hands within a month. It would also put the Russian forces west of Donbas in a bad spot. Their supply trickle from Crimea would be gone and they would be completely dependent on what the Russians can move by road from Donbas, which isn't much.
A USAF AWACS tracked the missile and NATO knows more than they are saying right now. There is probably a full analysis going on to ensure they have the story completely straight before going public.
It is looking more and more like an accident and was most likely AA missile debris falling across the border. Ultimately it is the Russian's fault even if it was a Ukrainian missile. If the Russians hadn't been attacking civilian targets in Lviv the Ukrainians wouldn't have been firing SAMs at them.
France and grlermany have done quite a lot. Look to Italy or Hungary.
France has been lagging behind, but Germany is the 3rd largest donor nation
Ukraine Support Tracker - A Database of Military, Financial and Humanitarian Aid to Ukraine
Per GDP Eastern European countries are outstripping everyone, including the US.
Ukraine Support Tracker - A Database of Military, Financial and Humanitarian Aid to Ukraine
Per GDP Eastern European countries are outstripping everyone, including the US.
Also worth mentioning that Germany is taking a massive economic hit by supporting sanctions and taking the brunt of Russia's reprisals and the loss of their gas supplies.
Yes, they should have severed those agreements after the first invasion. But that's water under the bridge. Right now they are paying back taxes on their poor decision. The US by contrast isn't bound up tightly in that particular economic train wreck.
