RWD this year, or hold out for Performance in a year...

[Gwgan]

Deliveries to the northeast might coincide with the availability of AWD early next year anyway. An expiring ICE lease figures and our timing and I would be more likely to lease the 3 if we had to jump for the RWD.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

My circumstances have changed since Reservation Day. I can hold out for a Performance model, even if it means my tax credit is reduced or even gone.

I'll be optimistic though, and hope I'll have the car in hand by this time next year, which would likely still net me the full credit.

 

[Garlan Garner]

That's not what he said yesterday

I don't believe it.

Hey - Question for you......Whats Elons track record on timing? Especially when he predicts something 6 months out. Anyone?

Anyone?


Lastly. If Tesla is producing 5K Model 3's per week. ( 20K ) per month....that's 1/4 of their reservations this year alone. And that's assuming that Tesla is going to stay at the 5K mark. What if they reach their 10K mark? That's 100K to 140K Model 3's made this year alone. They might run out of single motor customers by then. Who knows.

I believe Tesla will be able to fulfill all of the Model 3's Model S's and Model X's that their customers want NEXT YEAR.

 

[JeffK]

I think he's trying to scare people into thinking they might not get the full credit so they jump on a Model S purchase.

 

[ohmman]

Hey - Question for you......Whats Elons track record on timing? Especially when he predicts something 6 months out. Anyone?

He's always far too aggressive. So if you're using his history as a guide, we won't see it until mid or late 2018. He's not really a "deliver early" kind of tweeter.

 

[Garlan Garner]

He's always far too aggressive. So if you're using his history as a guide, we won't see it until mid or late 2018. He's not really a "deliver early" kind of tweeter.

Elon has mis timed early in Space X and Solar City. Those roof panels are here much earlier than stated. Falcon 9 has had more missions than stated. Its Teslas turn.

 

[Jason Bourne]

Lastly. If Tesla is producing 5K Model 3's per week. ( 20K ) per month....that's 1/4 of their reservations this year alone. And that's assuming that Tesla is going to stay at the 5K mark. What if they reach their 10K mark? That's 100K to 140K Model 3's made this year alone. They might run out of single motor customers by then. Who knows.

I believe Tesla will be able to fulfill all of the Model 3's Model S's and Model X's that their customers want NEXT YEAR.

I don't agree with these calculations. Yes, Tesla's goal by the end of 2017 is to be at a run-rate of 5k units per week, but when production starts they'll be nowhere near that. Last I heard, they were looking for 1k units per week in July, 2k units/week in August, 3k units/week in September, etc. Maybe it'll go faster, maybe slower. But I think it's really unlikely that the run-rate will be at 5k before November.

Same with ramping up to a run-rate of 10k units/week. They can't jump magically, easily and instantly jump from 5k to 10k. It'll be a progression that may have missteps. So will they be running at 10k units/week by June? Probably. April? Maybe. January or February? Doubtful.

So this is relevant to the question of how quickly we think they'll deliver the ~400k or more cars that are currently reserved. I think they probably can deliver 400k Model3s by EOY 2018.

 

[Garlan Garner]

I don't agree with these calculations. Yes, Tesla's goal by the end of 2017 is to be at a run-rate of 5k units per week, but when production starts they'll be nowhere near that. Last I heard, they were looking for 1k units per week in July, 2k units/week in August, 3k units/week in September, etc. Maybe it'll go faster, maybe slower. But I think it's really unlikely that the run-rate will be at 5k before November.

Same with ramping up to a run-rate of 10k units/week. They can't jump magically, easily and instantly jump from 5k to 10k. It'll be a progression that may have missteps. So will they be running at 10k units/week by June? Probably. April? Maybe. January or February? Doubtful.

So this is relevant to the question of how quickly we think they'll deliver the ~400k or more cars that are currently reserved. I think they probably can deliver 400k Model3s by EOY 2018.

Elon stated that they will be producing 10K per week by the end of 2017. My calculations left it at 5k per week for the rest of the year to be safe. I think 5k per week is a nice average for the rest of this year as they are supposed to be at 10K per week by 2018.

I don't get how I stated anything about magically or jumping or non-progression model or anything of the kind.

This forum is amazing. Its almost like if I were to state that there isn't a cloud in the sky. Someone would quote me as saying "Garlan...you said it has never rained".

 

[ModelNforNerd]

I don't get how I stated anything about magically or jumping or non-progression model or anything of the kind. This forum is amazing.

That part wasn't based on what you said, it was based on Elon claiming that they will be working their way up to 10K per week....and everyone seems to gloss over the fact that to get from 5K/week in September-ish timeframe, you have to do 6, 7, 8, and 9K/week at some point.

They're not going to do 5K the last week of October, then magically flip a switch and DOUBLE the output the following week.

 

[Garlan Garner]

That part wasn't based on what you said, it was based on Elon claiming that they will be working their way up to 10K per week....and everyone seems to gloss over the fact that to get from 5K/week in September-ish timeframe, you have to do 6, 7, 8, and 9K/week at some point.

They're not going to do 5K the last week of October, then magically flip a switch and DOUBLE the output the following week.

Really folks?

Who said that they would magically flip a switch and double anything?

I said that they would produce 5K per week and end the year at 10K per week.


Where are you guys getting your numbers from....or are you speculating?

My apology. I still can't get over that insulting photo.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Really folks?

Who said that they would magically flip a switch and double anything?

I said that they would produce 5K per week and end the year at 10K per week.


Where are you guys getting your numbers from....or are you speculating?

My apology. I still can't get over that insulting photo.

Dave Chappelle is making a comeback these days. You've been the only one to react negatively to the photo.



Anyway, speculation? On this site? NAAAHHH. LOL

 

[Garlan Garner]

Dave Chappelle is making a comeback these days. You've been the only one to react negatively to the photo.



Anyway, speculation? On this site? NAAAHHH. LOL

LOL.

I wish there were are way to find out why I might be the only one reacting negatively to this photo.... but that might violate what folks might suggest is an ethnical forum violation.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

LOL.

I wish there were are way to find out why I might be the only one reacting negatively to this photo.... but that might violate what folks might suggest is an ethnical forum violation.

Everyone else can recognize it as a parody of the fictional comedic character it represents, because it's not as if it's pointing directly at YOU and making remarks....?

Just a WAG.

 

[dsvick]

Elon stated that they will be producing 10K per week by the end of 2017. My calculations left it at 5k per week for the rest of the year to be safe. I think 5k per week is a nice average for the rest of this year as they are supposed to be at 10K per week by 2018.

Can you provide a link to where Elon said that? The last I had seen was Tesla saying 5K per week sometime this year and 10K per week at some point next year.

And the production volume has nothing to do with when they'll produce AWD cars. They aren't basing it on a set number of RWD before they build any AWD, they start with dual motors when they feel that they've built enough single motor vehicles to be comfortable in their processes and in how the line works. At that point they'll start with the AWD. Right now Elon is estimating that that will happen early next year, it might be sooner it might be later.

 

[FloridaJohn]

That part wasn't based on what you said, it was based on Elon claiming that they will be working their way up to 10K per week....and everyone seems to gloss over the fact that to get from 5K/week in September-ish timeframe, you have to do 6, 7, 8, and 9K/week at some point.

They're not going to do 5K the last week of October, then magically flip a switch and DOUBLE the output the following week.

Well, there is one way to do that. That's to have a second production line ready to turn on. If the first production line maxes out at 5k/week, and they incorporate all the changes into the second line made to the first production line as they ramped it up, then there is a pretty good chance just turning on the second line will get you to a total of 10k/week. It may not be that instantaneous (the second line may have it's own unique problems), but the ramp from 1k/week to 5k/week could be significantly quicker than the ramp for the first production line was.

 

[McHoffa]

Elon stated that they will be producing 10K per week by the end of 2017.

Elon never said that. The only thing he said was that sometime in 2018 they would be at 10k per week. Sometime in 2018 could be all the way in December of next year.

I don't believe it.

So you think that even though he just said customers won't see AWD until next year that they'll somehow start delivering them this year? Most of the time, things come LATER than he says. I definitely wouldn't bet money that AWD will be available this year. I wish it would, but I'm not holding my breath!

 

[JeffK]

Relevant quotes:

Q4 2016 Earnings Call:

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla Motors, Inc.
Well, I feel pretty confident that we should get there by the end of this year, to 5,000 a week.

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla Motors, Inc.
So, when we place parts orders with our suppliers, we've told them 1,000 a week in July, 2,000 a week in August, and 4,000 a week in September. These are parts orders. Then the parts need to arrive. They need to be turned into a car. And the car needs to be delivered to customers.

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla Motors, Inc.
But the 1,000, 2,000, 4,000, those are the deadlines we've set out for our suppliers for parts delivery and then parts get made into cars, cars need to get delivered. Those are three separate steps.

Q1 2017 Earnings Call

Deepak Ahuja - Tesla Motors, Inc.
I don't think we have indicated the – we've just said in the letter we'd achieve 5,000 per week at some point this year, and 10,000 at some point next year. So we haven't clarified on that.

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla Motors, Inc.
Yeah, the trick is that when you got a whole new product and a whole new factory, trying to predict exactly what that initial S-curve, the initial portion of the S-curve looks like is extremely difficult. Inevitably, the production starts off slowly and then you gradually eliminate the constraints and eventually it starts taking off exponentially. But because of that, sort of initial slow ramp that then grows exponentially, a small change in where that lands in the quarter can have quite a big impact on total volume. It's a lot easier to predict where the upper flat portion of the S-curve is likely to be, but predicting the rapidly changing portions of the S-curve is I think not within the ability of anyone to predict with accuracy.

This should clear up any confusion.

 

[schonelucht]

Elon has mis timed early in Space X and Solar City. Those roof panels are here much earlier than stated. Falcon 9 has had more missions than stated. Its Teslas turn.

Roof panels are there? Let's be serious. They aren't.

 

[EV-lutioin]

I agree 100%. It will happen this year. We have about 5-7 months left.

So you are saying Musk will deliver a car ahead of schedule and you are 100% sure.

 

[JeffK]

So you are saying Musk will deliver a car ahead of schedule and you are 100% sure.

Hey now, this is already delayed from launch which is scheduled to be on time. There's nothing ahead of schedule about that.