RWD this year, or hold out for Performance in a year...

[happyguy]

I only want a baseline Model 3 RWD. No P or AWD needed.

 

[EVnut]

I like the ability to haul 8'-10' long pieces of lumber and 10' long segments of PVC.

Just for the record... I do all this with my Prius today. I expect to easily be able to do this with the (larger) Model 3. I'll be upset if I can't!

 

[SoCalGuy]

There's always the option to buy the RWD now and keep for a year or so then sell it and get the P/AWD. I doubt they will depreciate that much given all of the pent up demand. Also by then any kinks will have been worked out.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Don't really need AWD since Tesla's RWD traction is excellent, but the chain laws in California are ridiculous, so unfortunately, AWD is mandatory here if you want to drive above 3,000' in the winter.

or learn to put on snow chains/cables? or pay someone to do it for ~$50 a pop. The $7500 tax credit will pay for a quite a few ski trips

 

[Waiting4M3]

There's always the option to buy the RWD now and keep for a year or so then sell it and get the P/AWD. I doubt they will depreciate that much given all of the pent up demand. Also by then any kinks will have been worked out.

I still quite figured out what would be the resale value of a M3 be after the tax credit has expired. My 1st thought is that it would go up since there is less appealing to buy the new M3 without the tax credit, thus boosting used car appeal. So will there be a scenario where someone could buy the M3 in 2017 for $35K, cash in $7.5K credit, then resell it 9-12 months later for >$27.5K, and pocket the change?

A monkey wrench in that strategy could be if Tesla can get good enough margin, they may lower the price on the M3 once the tax credit runs out, thus nullify the profit margin of above strategy.

I'm sure there are other factors that I haven't considered though.

 

[Foxhound199]

they may lower the price on the M3 once the tax credit runs out,

I seriously doubt it. Not only do they have a substantial backlog of demand, they have no real competition that can offer the same thing at a better price. Why automakers didn't time a serious competitor at a comparable price to come on the scene right about the time Tesla's federal credits are set to expire is bewildering to me.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

I seriously doubt it. Not only do they have a substantial backlog of demand, they have no real competition that can offer the same thing at a better price. Why automakers didn't time a serious competitor at a comparable price to come on the scene right about the time Tesla's federal credits are set to expire is bewildering to me.

Probably because, just like Tesla, no one else had any idea the numbers would be that big, causing the tax credit to burn out faster.

They probably all assumed Tesla had at least another year, if not more, before vehicle #200,000.

 

[JeffK]

Not to mention, Tesla's official stance is that they don't price vehicles based on the status of the tax credit.

 

[WileyTheMan]

This is indeed the $7500 question.

Indeed. I'm leaning towards AWD non-P. There's still a chance I can take AWD delivery before the full tax credit runs out, and I'm ok if it get halved. The biggest thing I'm grappling with right now is the instant gratification of getting the RWD version sooner. I think I'll decide when the design studio opens up.

 

[Waiting4M3]

If lowering price is not in the cards, Tesla could also introduce larger batteries or other improvements/features to soften the blow of loss of the tax credit, given they have raised the margin to absorb the cost. Estimating the time line, if the 200K threshold is hit in early Q1, then a mid-2018 update could be likely.

 

[Enadler]

The Tax credit will not start to phase out until Q2 2018 at the earliest. I would expect, with the M3 starting to ship in July of this year and with volumes reaching 5000 per week by the end of 2017, we will see the AWD introduced no later than Q1 of 2018 if not sooner. My expectation is that I will be able to buy an AWD M3 and still receive all of the tax credit.

 

[JeffK]

If lowering price is not in the cards, Tesla could also introduce larger batteries or other improvements/features to soften the blow of loss of the tax credit, given they have raised the margin to absorb the cost. Estimating the time line, if the 200K threshold is hit in early Q1, then a mid-2018 update could be likely.

Lowering the price = lower profits
Increasing battery capacity without increasing price = lower profits.

You can't raise the margin by adding more cost. It's just the opposite.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Lowering the price = lower profits
Increasing battery capacity without increasing price = lower profits.

You can't raise the margin by adding more cost. It's just the opposite.

I said Tesla could lower the price AFTER they have raised the margin to high enough level by mid 2018 to absorb the cost of lowering the price.

 

[SSonnentag]

My driveway requires AWD in the winter.

 

[EV-lutioin]

or learn to put on snow chains/cables? or pay someone to do it for ~$50 a pop. The $7500 tax credit will pay for a quite a few ski trips

Drive with chains??? Surely you jest!!

 

[Snow Drift]

AWD non P, please. STI will be my sports car. Can't, err, don't want RWD. I'm a Subaru guy and it's a requirement.

 

[SageBrush]

I'd like AWD but it is not a requirement. I'm guessing that it will cost $5k, and possibly part of the tax credit.
If it adds up to a $12.5k option, I'll skip
If it is a $5k option I'll grab it
If it is a $8.7k option, I'm not sure but I lean towards no since that is a big chunk of money towards the next generation.

 

[Hank42]

As an early adopter who knew nothing of the "P" or AWD options coming down the line, I know better this time - I can wait a little bit...

 

[22522]

I really want one pedal driving to brake all the wheels.
I really cannot afford to buy a car this expensive.
Only hope is appreciation of Tesla stock to cover the Model 3 purchase price.

So I bought a bunch of stock at today's price (a while ago). If Elon and co move the price up enough to cover the cost of the car, I will be able to afford all wheel drive.

 

[EXOTIC1]

I still quite figured out what would be the resale value of a M3 be after the tax credit has expired. My 1st thought is that it would go up since there is less appealing to buy the new M3 without the tax credit, thus boosting used car appeal. So will there be a scenario where someone could buy the M3 in 2017 for $35K, cash in $7.5K credit, then resell it 9-12 months later for >$27.5K, and pocket the change?

A monkey wrench in that strategy could be if Tesla can get good enough margin, they may lower the price on the M3 once the tax credit runs out, thus nullify the profit margin of above strategy.

I'm sure there are other factors that I haven't considered though.

If you have early res you'll be able to drive this car for a year and i'm willing to bet........ resale will be maybe a few thousand less than you paid overall. They won't be able to keep up with demand for at least 18 months.