Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[moltenfire]

18 million short interest is a whole lot lower than even May 15 (23million short).

 

[joefee]

18 million short interest is a whole lot lower than even May 15 (23million short).

But still a few day’s to cover…or 1 really big one:love:

 

[kenliles]

We'd exepect the SI to drop significantly after the run TSLA had. The good thing (for the longs) is that 18.5mm shares is still a decent amount of SI so any good news would likely send another chunk of the shorts running for cover. Even with the big short squeeze passed us and all the negative articles as of late i'm very impressed with how its performed. You'd think with such a run up like it had it could have easily dropped back in the 80s or even 70s. Consolidating in the 90's is nothing but healthy for the stock so that it has a firm base for the next potential leg up, which could come leading up to the June 20th announcement.

Yep I would agree with that. It's partially credited to the brilliant move by Elon to Cap raise and supply a big support at $92. But correction even to mid high eighties would be a healthy consolidation IMO

 

[Curt Renz]

It's sort of a thing the last few months. Every Tuesday you were essentially guaranteed TSLA would be red for the day, often by fairly large percentages. Some of it possibly had to do with the rolling naked short that was going on. There was often high volume on those days.

Indeed, almost every Tuesday for the last several months we've seen waves of what appeared to be hedge fund shorting. That often triggered a cascade of sales as the price fell through stop limits set by weak longs. That greatly increased the day's trading volume. Today that effect was somewhat muted. It appears those weak longs have already taken their profits, often due to stop limits becoming triggered. Now the shorting attacks are not likely to unhinge the remaining longs who are the strong believers. In addition, they are understandably concerned about not paying the high taxes for significant short term gains. Many of them have purchased protective options to guard against downdrafts, thus allowing peace of mind while retaining the actual shares. That's keeping support at a higher level than what might have otherwise been the case.

The May 31st short interest is still significant and it probably grew today. Any good news or Elon tweets could induce another round of short covering. We know something will be brewing on June 20th, but I would not be surprised if the shorts are thrown a curve a little sooner by our ace pitcher.

 

[DaveT]

Any good news or Elon tweets could induce another round of short covering. We know something will be brewing on June 20th, but I would not be surprised if the shorts are thrown a curve a little sooner by our ace pitcher.

I hope so. I'd love to see a tweet from Elon saying, "5th announcement is the most significant of the trilogy."

 

[anticitizen13.7]

"General Motors just curbed Tesla's momentum with an announcement that it would cut the price of the Chevy Volt. The news came just a day after Barron's said Tesla shares could be worth half their recent price, due to hurdles in getting a lower priced model to market.
General Motors will be offering a $4000 incentive for buyers of its 2013 Chevy Volt model and $5000 to buyers of the 2012 version, according to news reported today. With the competitive threshold thus raised for the new automaker, Tesla shares were immediately impacted with a gap open lower Tuesday. The stock was down 4% deep into the trading day. That followed TSLA's drop of 1.9% on Monday, after Barron's published a high profile report on the company questioning its valuation."
Source: GM Just Curbed Tesla - Seeking Alpha

Clearly the author of that article doesn't drive cars.

Or know much about the auto industry. Offering large incentives is usually a sign of desperation on the part of the manufacturer, and is generally viewed in a very negative light. It means that the Volt as priced is not selling.

There is a large amount of garbage posted on Seeking Alpha. I don't even know why the person who wrote that article thought that the Volt was even remotely comparable to the Model S. This is like saying that a Mercedes E class is in danger because Honda put a $2000 incentive on the Civic Hybrid.

 

[TSLAopt]

But still a few day’s to cover…or 1 really big one:love:

18mm shares short covering would probably be several days worth of huge volume. Today's volume was 7mm shares but probably 50-70% the trading in TSLA these days is high frequency trading algos/bots trading with each other and day traders scalping intraday on quick 50 cent moves. If the majority of shorts did cover in one day i suspect it would be over 50mm shares traded on that day (ie. mostly bots trading and HFTs) and the price would go sky high, 150+. While this scenario is very unlikely, I believe it is even less likely that the stock tanks 50 points+ in a single day.

- - - Updated - - -

Indeed, almost every Tuesday for the last several months we've seen waves of what appeared to be hedge fund shorting. That often triggered a cascade of sales as the price fell through stop limits set by weak longs. That greatly increased the day's trading volume. Today that effect was somewhat muted. It appears those weak longs have already taken their profits, often due to stop limits becoming triggered. Now the shorting attacks are not likely to unhinge the remaining longs who are the strong believers. In addition, they are understandably concerned about not paying the high taxes for significant short term gains. Many of them have purchased protective options to guard against downdrafts, thus allowing peace of mind while retaining the actual shares. That's keeping support at a higher level than what might have otherwise been the case.

The May 31st short interest is still significant and it probably grew today. Any good news or Elon tweets could induce another round of short covering. We know something will be brewing on June 20th, but I would not be surprised if the shorts are thrown a curve a little sooner by our ace pitcher.

Actually, most Funds are not so concerned with short term gains/losses as they use mark to market accounting. It's the retail investors like us that are concerned with short term vs long term capital gains. It's actually been a blessing in disguise for me or I might have gotten out in the 70s or 80s. I just hope it doesn't go back down that far as that will be hard to stomach.

I'm up 2000% on a combination of Leaps and some Sept calls so the difference on long term vs. short term for me is really motivating for me to hold on, I have a feeling there are a lot of us in the same position though so you are right on that.

 

[aznt1217]

I'm waiting for tax, but holy toledo I am NOT up 2000%.... then again I guess level of risk equates to level of success.

18mm shares short covering would probably be several days worth of huge volume. Today's volume was 7mm shares but probably 50-70% the trading in TSLA these days is high frequency trading algos/bots trading with each other and day traders scalping intraday on quick 50 cent moves. If the majority of shorts did cover in one day i suspect it would be over 50mm shares traded on that day (ie. mostly bots trading and HFTs) and the price would go sky high, 150+. While this scenario is very unlikely, I believe it is even less likely that the stock tanks 50 points+ in a single day.

- - - Updated - - -




Actually, most Funds are not so concerned with short term gains/losses as they use mark to market accounting. It's the retail investors like us that are concerned with short term vs long term capital gains. It's actually been a blessing in disguise for me or I might have gotten out in the 70s or 80s. I just hope it doesn't go back down that far as that will be hard to stomach.

I'm up 2000% on a combination of Leaps and some Sept calls so the difference on long term vs. short term for me is really motivating for me to hold on, I have a feeling there are a lot of us in the same position though so you are right on that.

 

[ckessel]

Barrons, the Volt, it's all noise. This is just how TSLA moves all the time. We were at 90 last Wednesday and about the Monday before it too. Go back a week to May 23rd and it was around there again. In between it's spiked to near ~105 (crazy brief 115 spike at one point).

This is just what TSLA does. The movement isn't strongly related to much of anything.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

I'm thinking some more dropping tomorrow until it bounces off the $89-90 area tomorrow or thursday...with a chance I will be pleasantly surprised at an upturn tomorrow...Five and a half percent is a decent drop for one day. I'm trying not to care about the super short term as next week is the announcement and will likely (?) have the most near term type effects, whatever those will end up being.

Oh, and it might rain tomorrow, or it might be sunny.

 

[ShortSlaver]

The May 31st short interest is still significant and it probably grew today. Any good news or Elon tweets could induce another round of short covering. We know something will be brewing on June 20th, but I would not be surprised if the shorts are thrown a curve a little sooner by our ace pitcher.

I'm in the same school of thought here. I sort of feel like there's a setup coming here somewhere. Either way, I'm content. If it falls more I have a price to start buying some more options.

I hope a lot of people have benefited from your thoughts in this forum. I know I have. I made some poor choices at times with TSLA ( eg I could have made more money and didn't always consider taxes, etc) and feel like your posts have had a lot of insight and I've learned a lot. You sit there and take some losses and times and then see some gains, but you have a plan and a strategy and it's OK. It's been nice holding a strong hand and knowing being able to not stress about the very short term movements.

I figure I've made a lot on paper and beyond and I'm best off holding through some negative press and sentiment because my plan is longterm and patience is best.

- - - Updated - - -

I'm thinking some more dropping tomorrow until it bounces off the $89-90 area tomorrow or thursday...with a chance I will be pleasantly surprised at an upturn tomorrow...Five and a half percent is a decent drop for one day. I'm trying not to care about the super short term as next week is the announcement and will likely (?) have the most near term type effects, whatever those will end up being.

Oh, and it might rain tomorrow, or it might be sunny.

Heh, funny you say that because I swear TSLA does great when it rains in NYC - I'm not even kidding. However it's been raining a ton the last couple months and TSLA has done well too.

But yeah, I can see some more selling and if so I have a strategy for that. If we get the pleasant surprise of some kind of green then great.

Buy when everyone is fearful.

 

[twinklejet]

Pre-market is up to $96.70 right now (High of $97.04 @ 06:19)

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Pre-market is up to $96.70 right now (High of $97.04 @ 06:19)

I bought 4 weekly calls yesterday when it was at $96 but then second guessed myself and sold them for a $20 profit while I could. When it plummeted afterwards I felt pretty good about my decision to sell but if this premarket trend continues I will be kicking myself! At least I was able to sleep last night!

 

[twinklejet]

I bought 4 weekly calls yesterday when it was at $96 but then second guessed myself and sold them for a $20 profit while I could. When it plummeted afterwards I felt pretty good about my decision to sell but if this premarket trend continues I will be kicking myself! At least I was able to sleep last night!

Well it's up now to $97.64... (High $97.81 @7:59)

 

[Norse]

Well it's up now to $97.64... (High $97.81 @7:59)

Robert Baird just raised target from 70 to 118, might get some buyers.

 

[deonb]

Robert Baird just raised target from 70 to 118, might get some buyers.

Darn it. Should have sold those $100 puts yesterday.

 

[ShortSlaver]

Darn it. Should have sold those $100 puts yesterday.

If I got a dollar for every time I was a day late in the stock market.

- - - Updated - - -

Robert Baird just raised target from 70 to 118, might get some buyers.

It should help and strengthen the $90-$110 range for sure.

I'm not saying we won't, but I believe TSLA in the $80's is going to become a rather rare event.

 

[toastypasta]

If I got a dollar for every time I was a day late in the stock market.

I'd have 18 dollars

 

[jeffro01]

I got back in this AM... I dunno if it was the right call, I'm learning as I go...

Jeff

 

[Curt Renz]

Tesla Motors is hiring, including swing shift: http://www.indeed.com/q-Tesla-Motors-l-Fremont,-CA-jobs.html