Repost from: Refugee from SA: Julian Cox now on TMC - Page 6
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A message leading out of Q2. Permission to copy and paste universally granted.
Record of TSLA analysis by Julian Cox: http://www.liionica.com/Julian_Cox_R...A_Analysis.jpg
This is a company disrupting a $2 Trillion industry with the tailwind of history and socioeconomics behind it. The socioeconomics manifests as a deeply felt need for this business to succeed by an economic majority, many of whom are willing to invest hard cash in advance of fundamentals and predict correctly on the willingness of others to do the same.
Why? Because this company and it's product and service road-map breaks the compromise between the near-universally-held concern for the role of automotive in contributing to an unnatural environment and the universally held concerns of consumers to receive superior value for money.
Not only are its products desirable on their merits, it is believable that current and soon-to-be affordable products from this company and those forced to compete with it for survival in the automotive market will be sufficiently widely adopted to change the course of human destiny in which short-term greed and self-destruction are not mutually exclusive.
The jury is in, when it comes to cars and oil. Not even the most ardent Christian can be sold on the idea of buying a Nissan Leaf for rewards in the hereafter despite the ice caps rolling into the sea for their kids to deal with when they are gone. Not even when massive jet-stream anomalies set the Bible Belt on fire in the here and now. An attractive sports sedan or the electric equivalent to a Porsche Cayenne super-sports SUV, an affordable electric equivalent of a BMW M3 with a F150 equivalent to follow and made in Texas USA? Now that's the kind of blessing for which the good Lord can be truly thanked. Note, nobody is talking about taking on Tesla with a superior ICE vehicle, that battle is conceded by default and this alone is entirely indicative of the economic outcome. Arguing against and betting against this business and its valuation is both financially irresponsible and it is also a disservice to the interests of people the world over save only the fact that the endeavor is ever increasingly futile. Note well the fact that the reputation of the New York Times was damaged in the attempt to discredit Tesla, and not Tesla. That is how strongly people feel.
The overall result thus far is an unprecedented spectacle in the history of capitalism. A long and growing line of customers out of the door thrusting cash-up-front upon the company in chunks of circa $100K (each). An automotive startup that is instantly profitable on the first two quarters of mass production despite aggressive infrastructure spending on free charging stations, stores and service centers and shows no credible signs of burning through cash in any meaningful quantity or turning in a real-world loss ever again.
GAAP and Lease Accounting loss in the case of Tesla is Absolutely inapplicable to a right-understanding of reality. Besides providing a residual guarantee, the company is not in any other way genuinely a party to the lease of any vehicle. That would be the partnering banks to its lease program. All cash is received up front by Tesla (read the shareholder's letter). Find another business on Earth that can bank 100% cash up front with profits (and a finance referral commission) and nevertheless be forced by FASB GAAP rules to enjoy a tax loophole that demands the artificially deferred recognition of real and actual profits that are in the bank. ZEV credits in the Non-GAAP, prognosis irrelevant, they are in Q3 now and as reported they can already see that can make gross margins of 25% ex ZEV in Q4.
Tesla is 5 years ahead of any credible competition. All would-be competition to date is a failure, Audi eTron (program cancelled), Nissan Infiniti (program set back) both effectively citing Tesla Model S. BMW literally a financial analyst's laughing stock (on the earnings call), all the rest actually including BMW are range-hobbled econoboxes and pointless hybrids predicated on the idea that someone is willing to give up convenience (and value for money) to be seen to be "green". They are not, people want desirable cars and then if possible to be green as well. That's Tesla.
In order to tout or to accept the notion that Tesla as a tech stock is not worth a profit multiple enormously greater than the purely illusory value of Amazon, Facebook, Google, Twitter, eBay (including PayPal) or any other website or talking-shop floating around in cyberspace (or indeed any of the design houses of Internet content-creation and viewing devices), then with no disrespect to the evident utility of the former to help come to an understanding of what we need to be doing, that decision having been made in the form of Tesla, one would have to have become completely divorced from the realities of what actually matters in the form economic value in manufactured goods and energy that determines the actual quality of real lives down on the surface of planet Earth.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A message leading out of Q2. Permission to copy and paste universally granted.
Record of TSLA analysis by Julian Cox: http://www.liionica.com/Julian_Cox_R...A_Analysis.jpg
This is a company disrupting a $2 Trillion industry with the tailwind of history and socioeconomics behind it. The socioeconomics manifests as a deeply felt need for this business to succeed by an economic majority, many of whom are willing to invest hard cash in advance of fundamentals and predict correctly on the willingness of others to do the same.
Why? Because this company and it's product and service road-map breaks the compromise between the near-universally-held concern for the role of automotive in contributing to an unnatural environment and the universally held concerns of consumers to receive superior value for money.
Not only are its products desirable on their merits, it is believable that current and soon-to-be affordable products from this company and those forced to compete with it for survival in the automotive market will be sufficiently widely adopted to change the course of human destiny in which short-term greed and self-destruction are not mutually exclusive.
The jury is in, when it comes to cars and oil. Not even the most ardent Christian can be sold on the idea of buying a Nissan Leaf for rewards in the hereafter despite the ice caps rolling into the sea for their kids to deal with when they are gone. Not even when massive jet-stream anomalies set the Bible Belt on fire in the here and now. An attractive sports sedan or the electric equivalent to a Porsche Cayenne super-sports SUV, an affordable electric equivalent of a BMW M3 with a F150 equivalent to follow and made in Texas USA? Now that's the kind of blessing for which the good Lord can be truly thanked. Note, nobody is talking about taking on Tesla with a superior ICE vehicle, that battle is conceded by default and this alone is entirely indicative of the economic outcome. Arguing against and betting against this business and its valuation is both financially irresponsible and it is also a disservice to the interests of people the world over save only the fact that the endeavor is ever increasingly futile. Note well the fact that the reputation of the New York Times was damaged in the attempt to discredit Tesla, and not Tesla. That is how strongly people feel.
The overall result thus far is an unprecedented spectacle in the history of capitalism. A long and growing line of customers out of the door thrusting cash-up-front upon the company in chunks of circa $100K (each). An automotive startup that is instantly profitable on the first two quarters of mass production despite aggressive infrastructure spending on free charging stations, stores and service centers and shows no credible signs of burning through cash in any meaningful quantity or turning in a real-world loss ever again.
GAAP and Lease Accounting loss in the case of Tesla is Absolutely inapplicable to a right-understanding of reality. Besides providing a residual guarantee, the company is not in any other way genuinely a party to the lease of any vehicle. That would be the partnering banks to its lease program. All cash is received up front by Tesla (read the shareholder's letter). Find another business on Earth that can bank 100% cash up front with profits (and a finance referral commission) and nevertheless be forced by FASB GAAP rules to enjoy a tax loophole that demands the artificially deferred recognition of real and actual profits that are in the bank. ZEV credits in the Non-GAAP, prognosis irrelevant, they are in Q3 now and as reported they can already see that can make gross margins of 25% ex ZEV in Q4.
Tesla is 5 years ahead of any credible competition. All would-be competition to date is a failure, Audi eTron (program cancelled), Nissan Infiniti (program set back) both effectively citing Tesla Model S. BMW literally a financial analyst's laughing stock (on the earnings call), all the rest actually including BMW are range-hobbled econoboxes and pointless hybrids predicated on the idea that someone is willing to give up convenience (and value for money) to be seen to be "green". They are not, people want desirable cars and then if possible to be green as well. That's Tesla.
In order to tout or to accept the notion that Tesla as a tech stock is not worth a profit multiple enormously greater than the purely illusory value of Amazon, Facebook, Google, Twitter, eBay (including PayPal) or any other website or talking-shop floating around in cyberspace (or indeed any of the design houses of Internet content-creation and viewing devices), then with no disrespect to the evident utility of the former to help come to an understanding of what we need to be doing, that decision having been made in the form of Tesla, one would have to have become completely divorced from the realities of what actually matters in the form economic value in manufactured goods and energy that determines the actual quality of real lives down on the surface of planet Earth.
Less stress over the weekend as well. Congrats.
