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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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gg_got_a_tesla
Model S: VIN 65513, Model 3: VIN 1913
The thinking seems to be that although Tesla has the potential to sustain these levels in the long term with fundamentals to back that up (probably in the Gen 3 time horizon in 3-4 years), this short term uptick is fueled quite a bit by shorts leaving; a pullback of some kind is expected.
ShortSlaver
Member
It's extremely volatile right now obviously. Some of it has been shorts covering but there's also a lot of new buy-in's. I would expect TSLA to continue to rise and then eventually pull-back some. However, we don't know if we're above pullback levels or not right now. The earnings call and guidance next week is likely to be a catalyst of some sort I imagine. If the news is better than hinted at a month ago then we could see a dramatic rise. If it's about what we expected perhaps we see a slight pullback. It's unlikely to be worse as they've given guidance and "at least" limits - but the future guidance could contribute a lot to investor feelings about the company.
deonb
Active Member
How to get a panic attack:
Accidentally type in 'TSL' instead of 'TSLA' when looking up the stock price. :scared:
Accidentally type in 'TSL' instead of 'TSLA' when looking up the stock price. :scared:
I do not think we are even close to the bubble territory. The roadmap for real value of the company is actually given by the 2012 CEO Incentive Grant that was included in Proxy Statement Form Def 14A. It is attached below. I've marked market capitalization milestones next to each production milestone and added dates for some of the production milestones. I believe that current intrinsic value of the company is equal to the first market capitalization milestone ($7.2B) and will be equal to second milestone (11.2B) towards the end of this year.
Having said that, market perception/valuation and intrinsic value of the company do not necessarily match in real time.
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Norbert
TSLA will win
At around 11 am it was about 50%. The shorts, as a larger group, don't go away that quickly (except probably for pauses due to the stock going up extremely quickly this morning). It bounced upwards, and now it bounces downwards. I think there'll be a big a bigger squeeze than that.
Shorts regaining their breathe. With this pattern stock will open up down tomorrow. I got out of my "play position" and am waiting for a lower entry point.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Today was crazy. This is definitely not a stock I would trade
I will however root for it like I do my favorite sports teams:smile:
ShortSlaver
Member
It's the stock market - logic doesn't generally apply.
It shot up, the feelings are it was a squeeze, a lot of people took profits ( I can't blame anyone for taking profits ) and after such a fast, large surge and drop due to selling it took air out of things, creating more sellers. It sort of found a stable place and started to even off creating some buyers again and raising the price but that might have triggered more selling from people who bought really high today, creating a depressed market value.
Really high volume day and that creates volatility. I was a bit surprised it finished down on the day and thought $55.50 was going to be a good place to settle, but that's how it goes.
Tomorrow is another day and we'll see if the bull got its feet back. The pattern on companies on the rise are still up's and downs with the up's being larger than the dows over a period of time. I think it's a great time to buy right now - but that's just based on my thoughts.
deonb
Active Member
Funny how close the pattern for today matches last Tuesday's (4/23).
Makes you wonder if there is more to Moe & Larry Tuesday's than just what's going on in the options market...
Makes you wonder if there is more to Moe & Larry Tuesday's than just what's going on in the options market...
It may have shot up at the opening due to wider circulation of the Longboard presentation promoting TSLA: http://www.slideshare.net/LongboardAM/tesla-41513-18932945
Then we saw the profit takers step in. Some of the weaker hands may have developed acrophobia. They place stop limits not far under record highs. Then a big short seller triggers an avalanche that takes out the stops. The victims are range traders who often have a hard time recognizing a true outlier. They end up having to chase a previously held stock when it starts running away to the upside.
This was the last day of a fiscal quarter for many mutual funds. Often money managers do “window dressing” late in a quarter, so stocks that appear in their quarterly reports are largely winners. One might think that was a reason for them to buy TSLA today. Actually, most of that window dressing is done a few days before the end of a fiscal quarter. However, many of those funds are required to invest in companies highly rated by a number of analysts. Firms that have never had profits are not followed by many analysts. Some funds may have moved TSLA out of their portfolios today, but plan to put it back soon, perhaps after TSLA's earnings report, maybe even tomorrow. If TSLA reports a profit and decent outlook next week, the dearth of coverage by analysts may end. Then the sky's the limit.
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I was getting worried about this recent run up and have sold most of my call positions, following Citizen-T's advice to sell on the way up. The crazy part is that the positions that I have remaining are still worth twice my original investment, and it's entirely with "free" money.
Anyway, I just watched a segment on Tesla on "In the Loop" on Bloomberg TV (no online video link yet). They had a guest from Edmunds saying that the market is just reacting to the first profitable quarter. And then they started talking about Fisker and the still small size of the "hybrid and electric" market segment and how the transition to electric vehicles is still a long way ahead. They still don't get it. Betty Liu has interviewed Elon so many times now, I couldn't believe she would mention Fisker and Coda in the same sentence with Tesla.
So, to anyone worried that they missed the golden opportunity in Tesla - you didn't. The golden opportunity is still here. I don't even think that 20K Model S sales in 2013 is fully priced in. Let alone any expansion in 2014, let alone Model X success, let alone Gen III.
I now firmly expect a pullback after earnings. No story about Supercharger deployment, great service, or outselling large luxury cars will save the stock. The market just doesn't get how important these are. The only thing that could prevent a pullback would be if they raise their guidance to 25K+ sales for 2013, and I can't see a reason why they would announce it this early. I also fear that the guidance for Q2 would be seen as corroborating the idea that Q1 profitability was a one time event - European cars made in June will not be booked as Q2 revenue.
Anyway, I just watched a segment on Tesla on "In the Loop" on Bloomberg TV (no online video link yet). They had a guest from Edmunds saying that the market is just reacting to the first profitable quarter. And then they started talking about Fisker and the still small size of the "hybrid and electric" market segment and how the transition to electric vehicles is still a long way ahead. They still don't get it. Betty Liu has interviewed Elon so many times now, I couldn't believe she would mention Fisker and Coda in the same sentence with Tesla.
So, to anyone worried that they missed the golden opportunity in Tesla - you didn't. The golden opportunity is still here. I don't even think that 20K Model S sales in 2013 is fully priced in. Let alone any expansion in 2014, let alone Model X success, let alone Gen III.
I now firmly expect a pullback after earnings. No story about Supercharger deployment, great service, or outselling large luxury cars will save the stock. The market just doesn't get how important these are. The only thing that could prevent a pullback would be if they raise their guidance to 25K+ sales for 2013, and I can't see a reason why they would announce it this early. I also fear that the guidance for Q2 would be seen as corroborating the idea that Q1 profitability was a one time event - European cars made in June will not be booked as Q2 revenue.
ShortSlaver
Member
Citizen-T
Active Member
Makes me happy. FYI, we say "playing with the House's money," but it's a good feeling no matter what you call it, isn't it?
Agreed, I was reading the comments on the Market Watch piece yesterday and there's still a huge amount of doubt, negativity, and misunderstanding out there. I hope Elon stays off Twitter long enough to let things cool down here so that you and I can put our profits back to work before the next leg.
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