Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[aznt1217]

Very nice run up. Have cash ready. It's going to probably end flat/slightly red today. I expect a lot of downward pressure on Monday. Need to feed the bull with shorts.

Any thoughts on options plays I had ideas that I really should've executed but I am going to reassess over this weekend. I didn't expect a DB PT increase and the run we had the past few days.

 

[sleepyhead]

I was debating on the Dec 2013 200 Call's. The premiums are way too crazy though it's like ~$15-16. I'm waiting for the next dip which will probably come some time next week with a new round (and probably increased) number of shorts. When these options are at about <$10 I'll be buying in.

I bought these exact same options on Tuesday at $8.10

I also posted on here what I was doing, so I hope that at least some people took the same steps.

The only thing I am upset about is that I had a meeting yesterday from 9am - 10am EST, so I missed the market open. Had I known that TSLA would open at $169 yesterday I would have put in a boatload of market price orders for market open for the TSLA $170 weeklies. It was the easiest money you could have made. Other than that, there is not much to complain about TSLA's movement in the past two days.

I have already created a few (basically) risk free spreads with my TSLA options by selling higher calls; although I still have my Dec 200s uncovered. I now have some capital back and I will be looking for another entry point in the next few weeks.

BTW - We have already passed my 10% target on the DB upgrade, so I don't think that we will see $190s any time soon without another catalyst. I expect consolidation in the high $170s coming next week. But if we get a good catalyst then we are going past $200 very soon. Maybe Tesla preannounces earnings in early October? Maybe something like: "At least 6,000 cars delivered and gross margin ex ZEV above 20%."

 

[Jhall118]

I bought December 200's after listening to you. Keep thinking out loud so I can get my Model S early

 

[Mario Kadastik]

I also posted on here what I was doing, so I hope that at least some people took the same steps.

Well I bought the Dec 180 call on Tuesday based on your post. Then yesterday when it was flatlining around 179.5 I sold the 200 call to make it close ($1.4 left in diff) to risk free (could have made it risk free today but I thought there'd be a pullback today). So yeah, followed your advice. What's your next one

 

[borat99]

I bought these exact same options on Tuesday at $8.10

I also posted on here what I was doing, so I hope that at least some people took the same steps.

The only thing I am upset about is that I had a meeting yesterday from 9am - 10am EST, so I missed the market open. Had I known that TSLA would open at $169 yesterday I would have put in a boatload of market price orders for market open for the TSLA $170 weeklies. It was the easiest money you could have made. Other than that, there is not much to complain about TSLA's movement in the past two days.

I have already created a few (basically) risk free spreads with my TSLA options by selling higher calls; although I still have my Dec 200s uncovered. I now have some capital back and I will be looking for another entry point in the next few weeks.

BTW - We have already passed my 10% target on the DB upgrade, so I don't think that we will see $190s any time soon without another catalyst. I expect consolidation in the high $170s coming next week. But if we get a good catalyst then we are going past $200 very soon. Maybe Tesla preannounces earnings in early October? Maybe something like: "At least 6,000 cars delivered and gross margin ex ZEV above 20%."

I'm definitely buying Dec 200 calls when the next dip comes. I'd also like to see a substantial announcement from Tesla between now the next earnings call. Something like what you said + China reservation #.

 

[bonaire]

Stuck at 184 - what is the deal now with the Goldman Sachs warrants, priced at $184?

 

[bhuwan]

I bought these exact same options on Tuesday at $8.10

I also posted on here what I was doing, so I hope that at least some people took the same steps.

The only thing I am upset about is that I had a meeting yesterday from 9am - 10am EST, so I missed the market open. Had I known that TSLA would open at $169 yesterday I would have put in a boatload of market price orders for market open for the TSLA $170 weeklies. It was the easiest money you could have made. Other than that, there is not much to complain about TSLA's movement in the past two days.

I have already created a few (basically) risk free spreads with my TSLA options by selling higher calls; although I still have my Dec 200s uncovered. I now have some capital back and I will be looking for another entry point in the next few weeks.

BTW - We have already passed my 10% target on the DB upgrade, so I don't think that we will see $190s any time soon without another catalyst. I expect consolidation in the high $170s coming next week. But if we get a good catalyst then we are going past $200 very soon. Maybe Tesla preannounces earnings in early October? Maybe something like: "At least 6,000 cars delivered and gross margin ex ZEV above 20%."

Thank you =)

 

[Cameron]

When/will we get November options?

 

[sleepyhead]

Well I bought the Dec 180 call on Tuesday based on your post. Then yesterday when it was flatlining around 179.5 I sold the 200 call to make it close ($1.4 left in diff) to risk free (could have made it risk free today but I thought there'd be a pullback today). So yeah, followed your advice. What's your next one

Well I also said yesterday that I would not be selling because TSLA has more room to go up :wink:

I started buying some Dec $190's last week, then as the price went down I got some $180s. The as the price went down more I got the $200s. On Tuesday I got some March $250s; and btw these have already doubled in value today, so that is why you might consider buying some ridiculously OTM options; I actually think these will end up ITM before they expire.

Yesterday I hedged my $180s for risk free status with the $195s, and today I hedged my $190s risk free with the $205s. I still have my $200s unhedged and my March $250s unhedged.

If TSLA goes up I am happy and will hedge the $200s. If TSLA goes down I am happy and will find another entry point to buy more options. If TSLa goes down and stays down then I might have to bet the farm on a Q3 blowout.

I still find it amuzing that many people here have held on to TSLA through the three week consolidation period and as soon as the stock broke up 5% to ~$174 everyone is selling. This is the exact opposite of what you should be doing. This is a bullish breakout trade above $173.80 on high volume and this is a great entry point to buy.

We might hit resistance at $174 next week and that is another great buying opportunity to buy STOCK, since options IV may be very high and might not be the best play even if there is a pullback.

- - - Updated - - -

Stuck at 184 - what is the deal now with the Goldman Sachs warrants, priced at $184?

This is actually a very good sign. The longer it stays in this range the better the chance that we see the stock go even higher. I was thinking TSLA would hit $185 and trade in the low $180s the rest of the day. It is showing remarkable strength and there is a small chance we see $190. I am not betting on it though, but do have some exposure via naked calls.

I would like to warn you gus on buying options on the next "dip". Implied volitility will be very high, so the best time to buy is during a consolidation. Unless of course you get a 20% - 25% Goldman like dip, then you buy as much as you can.

 

[emupilot]

BTW - We have already passed my 10% target on the DB upgrade, so I don't think that we will see $190s any time soon without another catalyst. I expect consolidation in the high $170s coming next week. But if we get a good catalyst then we are going past $200 very soon. Maybe Tesla preannounces earnings in early October? Maybe something like: "At least 6,000 cars delivered and gross margin ex ZEV above 20%."

When sleepyhead is short-term bearish, I take notice! ;-) I am a bigger short-term bear than sleepy - I even violated my never bet against Tesla rule and bought some 9/27 175 puts.

 

[bhuwan]

Well I also said yesterday that I would not be selling because TSLA has more room to go up :wink:

I started buying some Dec $190's last week, then as the price went down I got some $180s. The as the price went down more I got the $200s. On Tuesday I got some March $250s; and btw these have already doubled in value today, so that is why you might consider buying some ridiculously OTM options; I actually think these will end up ITM before they expire.

Yesterday I hedged my $180s for risk free status with the $195s, and today I hedged my $190s risk free with the $205s. I still have my $200s unhedged and my March $250s unhedged.

If TSLA goes up I am happy and will hedge the $200s. If TSLA goes down I am happy and will find another entry point to buy more options. If TSLa goes down and stays down then I might have to bet the farm on a Q3 blowout.

I still find it amuzing that many people here have held on to TSLA through the three week consolidation period and as soon as the stock broke up 5% to ~$174 everyone is selling. This is the exact opposite of what you should be doing. This is a bullish breakout trade above $173.80 on high volume and this is a great entry point to buy.

We might hit resistance at $174 next week and that is another great buying opportunity to buy STOCK, since options IV may be very high and might not be the best play even if there is a pullback.

- - - Updated - - -



This is actually a very good sign. The longer it stays in this range the better the chance that we see the stock go even higher. I was thinking TSLA would hit $185 and trade in the low $180s the rest of the day. It is showing remarkable strength and there is a small chance we see $190. I am not betting on it though, but do have some exposure via naked calls.

I would like to warn you gus on buying options on the next "dip". Implied volitility will be very high, so the best time to buy is during a consolidation. Unless of course you get a 20% - 25% Goldman like dip, then you buy as much as you can.

Dumb question but how are you hedging?

 

[sleepyhead]

When sleepyhead is short-term bearish, I take notice! ;-) I am a bigger short-term bear than sleepy - I even violated my never bet against Tesla rule and bought some 9/27 175 puts.

I am not really short term bearish. That is how I trade options: I buy a bunch and hedge a little at a time. I only hedged 60% of my options, so I am still bullish. If I was bearish, I would have hedged all of them and would be buying puts. I really think that this stock has a chance of breaking $200 very soon, maybe even next week. But that is only a small probability and the most likely scenario is a short consolidation in the high $170s/low $180s.

Dumb question but how are you hedging?

I buy Dec $180 calls for $14. TSLA goes up and I sell Dec $195 calls for $14. Risk free delayed construct bull call spread (learned this thanks to ongba). I get my capital back and that allows me to place a new bet when conditions are right. My BCS is worth about $5, but it can go to $15 at expiry if TSLA closes above $195. Rinse and repeat. Technically, you can recycle your capital and infinite amount of times this way. In reality, it requires magnificent market timing and is not as easy as it looks.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Agree, I think I've only done a delayed call spread construct twice in such a way that I got the two legs for about the same price. Once with Apple and once with Tesla But it's a neat method for options that are longer out (not weekly or this month ones) unless of course there's a major run up, then indeed might also do it with short term ones.

 

[sleepyhead]

Important Note on TSLA

This has gone virtually completely unnoticed but the entire media as well as most posters on this board:

Yesterday as DB increased their price target to $200, while getting all of their Q3 assumptions wrong (way too conservative), Northland Capital Markets came out with their note that reiterated their PT of $230 and they got it right saying that Tesla will exceed 6,000 deliveries, and gross margin is a lot higher than expected.

Nobody really cares about Northland Capital Markets, so this was not discussed (even DaveT omitted this info in his great mega post) much by anyone but the market did take notice. This whole TSLA rally is not because of DB exclusively. Northland played a big roll in this.

If Goldman, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, etc. came out with something like this then the stock would be at $200.

 

[Citizen-T]

I still find it amuzing that many people here have held on to TSLA through the three week consolidation period and as soon as the stock broke up 5% to ~$174 everyone is selling. This is the exact opposite of what you should be doing. This is a bullish breakout trade above $173.80 on high volume and this is a great entry point to buy.

To be fair, I think a lot of us are selling things that are expiring today because we don't have the capital to actually take delivery of the shares. I have every intention of rolling up/out. Already it has cooled off a bit and I'm going to start looking.

 

[Convert2013]

This has gone virtually completely unnoticed but the entire media as well as most posters on this board:

Yesterday as DB increased their price target to $200, while getting all of their Q3 assumptions wrong (way too conservative), Northland Capital Markets came out with their note that reiterated their PT of $230 and they got it right saying that Tesla will exceed 6,000 deliveries, and gross margin is a lot higher than expected.

Nobody really cares about Northland Capital Markets, so this was not discussed (even DaveT omitted this info in his great mega post) much by anyone but the market did take notice. This whole TSLA rally is not because of DB exclusively. Northland played a big roll in this.

If Goldman, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, etc. came out with something like this then the stock would be at $200.

Agree. Yes I saw Northland Capital's call right after DB's. Northland's got ignored similar to Dougherty's. Investors still listening to the big guys... DB may revise higher after earnings or at that point more of the small guys will likely reiterate their $220 + targets and we go higher.

 

[fjm9898]

So sleepy (and Dave when he makes his day ending post) What do you think price action will be like monday? If we hold this ~184 level today or fall back to 180 today what do you see? I am holding a few of my Deep OTM calls but i want to dump them soon. not sure if i should do it now or wait till monday morning and hope for another spike up that will bring up the IV so i can sell the Calls for a bit more.

 

[FredTMC]

All I can say is that just in my little town in Southern California (newer community with home prices $250k to $ 4 million), Model S cars are growing explosively. When 3 of my friends- all in the same town- had just purchased or ordered them back in December 2012, I jumped into the stock. Now I see many many more 60s and 85s in the whole range of colors. That is what gives me confidence in continuing to purchase TSLA...

yep. I have many friends interested and/or buying the car. Very reassuring. Also, I'm confident these folks, like me, will never buy an ICE again. Tesla is building a very strong brand with many customers turning into loyal repeat buyers over time.

 

[ongba]

I would like to warn you gus on buying options on the next "dip". Implied volitility will be very high, so the best time to buy is during a consolidation. Unless of course you get a 20% - 25% Goldman like dip, then you buy as much as you can.

on a pullback and if IV remains high, the better play in my opinion is to initiate an intact bull call spread and to sell half once it doubles to obtain a risk free play.

 

[AlMc]

on a pullback and if IV remains high, the better play in my opinion is to initiate an intact bull call spread and to sell half once it doubles to obtain a risk free play.

Give me an example. Say EOD is $185 and we have a pull back to 170. We are convinced Q3ER will cause stock to hit $200 before Jan 1st 2014.

PM me if you would rather my Delaware friend:wink: