I've been scratching my head wondering the same exact thing. There's really no reason for a sell off. Debating on trimming my position.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
- Start date
- Status
I've been scratching my head wondering the same exact thing. There's really no reason for a sell off. Debating on trimming my position.
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
The only news I see is the yet another law firm seeking if they can sue Tesla for class action because of SEC rules violation because they showed non-GAAP primarily. Talk about vultures...
Gtoffo
Member
People trimming their positions could be a reason
---
Edit: Gtoffo beat me to it.
No time to think, just trimmed it by half. Need more share accumulation. This actually works out well for my taxes too.
We broke a few support levels so I think there's a chance I can get 10% more shares really soon.
Gtoffo
Member
If I could afford it I would actually bet on a big TLR (Tesla Lunchtime Reversal) around 11AM.
Think this is most likely pure psychology.
There's been a piling on of pot stirring articles the past few weeks, regurgitating either the one issue I think is a legitimate long term concern/opportunity ("giga" battery factory in a few years), the one possible short-term issue that may not even be an issue (fires), and several fabricated issues (lawsuits, articles about "missing production goals", articles about accounting, conflating long-term battery supply concern with short-term, which has been addressed and is set for increase in next 6 months).
I think there's a lot of retail investors who do not research their individual stocks to the point they can determine real from fabricated in mainstream media reporting.
My gut feeling is that as all the positives led to some nice Monday rises in past months, the barrage of negative articles has the opposite effect on a day like today. Guess people talk and make decisions more on weekends.
Plus side, somewhere in 120s, I think we'll start to see articles about, is selling overdone in mainstream media. That, and response due any day from company (Elon mentioned blog), may be start of reversal back to positive sentiment.
I think there's plenty of people who think the company is a buy here waiting on sidelines for sentiment to change.
There's been a piling on of pot stirring articles the past few weeks, regurgitating either the one issue I think is a legitimate long term concern/opportunity ("giga" battery factory in a few years), the one possible short-term issue that may not even be an issue (fires), and several fabricated issues (lawsuits, articles about "missing production goals", articles about accounting, conflating long-term battery supply concern with short-term, which has been addressed and is set for increase in next 6 months).
I think there's a lot of retail investors who do not research their individual stocks to the point they can determine real from fabricated in mainstream media reporting.
My gut feeling is that as all the positives led to some nice Monday rises in past months, the barrage of negative articles has the opposite effect on a day like today. Guess people talk and make decisions more on weekends.
Plus side, somewhere in 120s, I think we'll start to see articles about, is selling overdone in mainstream media. That, and response due any day from company (Elon mentioned blog), may be start of reversal back to positive sentiment.
I think there's plenty of people who think the company is a buy here waiting on sidelines for sentiment to change.
That new law firm notice is really something: it is one thing - smarmy enough but still The Way Of The World - for a law firm to announce it is filing, or looking for lead plaintiffs to file, a suit against a corporation for specific reasons. THIS notice is different, however: "The Law Firm of Wohl & Fruchter LLP Investigates Alleged Violations of Financial Reporting...".
Fer cry-i! There is and can be exactly only one reason for releasing such a statement: to drive share prices down. Someone prove me wrong, please.
Fer cry-i! There is and can be exactly only one reason for releasing such a statement: to drive share prices down. Someone prove me wrong, please.
And on huge volume. 5million shares traded in first hour. Almost half average daily volume. Is this capitulation?
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
If NASDAQ hits 4000 today do you guys think it would trigger a sell-off? Or possibly a small rally?
fwiw, I nibbled here about $129.
nothing happens, I think it could drift to $120 give or take a couple dollars.
short-term upside, I could see Elon's blog could be followed with analyst re-iterations, or raising from neutral to buy...
short-term downside, risk of overall market pulling back, or more fires in a short period of time (in which case I might be holding these shares at $129 for months rather than days or weeks).
nothing happens, I think it could drift to $120 give or take a couple dollars.
short-term upside, I could see Elon's blog could be followed with analyst re-iterations, or raising from neutral to buy...
short-term downside, risk of overall market pulling back, or more fires in a short period of time (in which case I might be holding these shares at $129 for months rather than days or weeks).
Could be capitulation. Worked for me. I'm totally out. Never lost so much in a stock. I had been holding some, but I don't really see the upside here. Elon's interview was horrendous. A previously perfect image now tarnished with a don't care attitude about safety and reliability. The two electric rails of the automotive industry. You can't look like you don't care about safety nor reliability.
I don't see why the stock would move up from here, but can see plenty of reasons for it to continue to collapse.
1) NHTSA investigation. Heck, this time I think its warranted. If Elon/Tesla won't acknowledge a fire risk, someone has to make them deal with it. Once you get NHTSA in your shorts, they'll start tell Tesla how to do all sorts of things. 17" screen that you can surf the web while driving... hmm. What about safety of various charging apparatus. Plug into a 16-50 outlet, even outside. I'm sure there are more rules and regulations we could make up. Once they get involved forget doing anything quickly nor innovative. Best bet it to be an angel so they'll leave you alone. Once the trust is violated, regulators all over your back and it will be many years of perfect behavior before they'll leave you alone.
2) The way they released the 5.8 update. I had said thats what they needed to do, but they did it in the worst possible way. Elon publicly states there's no recall, i.e. no safety issue at all. I had suggested default to no lowering, but display a warning screen and let people accept the risk and re-enable it. Instead Tesla silently slips this out with no option to let it lower at highway speeds. As if they have something to hide or were forced to do it. Pisses off owners who paid for the suspension and makes you worry. Maybe there is a safety issue after all.
3) Another fire is only a matter of time. That won't help the stock.
4) Elon's attitude. Like he's tired of dealing with Tesla. I had always feared they'd be bought or he'd leave. But this is almost worse. For him to stay and try to bring the stock down is almost worse.
Not only do these things not help, they damage the stock long term.
Only 4% of ICE fires are from collision, www.usfa.fema.gov—v13i11.pdf page 6, "Collisions, as a factor contributing to ignition, resulted in 4 percent of all highway vehicle fires". That means one in 25 fires. If you factor that into Elon's risk comparison it makes a Tesla 4x MORE likely to catch on fire than an ICE as a result of a collision. Elon knows this and chose to misrepresent.
I don't see why the stock would move up from here, but can see plenty of reasons for it to continue to collapse.
1) NHTSA investigation. Heck, this time I think its warranted. If Elon/Tesla won't acknowledge a fire risk, someone has to make them deal with it. Once you get NHTSA in your shorts, they'll start tell Tesla how to do all sorts of things. 17" screen that you can surf the web while driving... hmm. What about safety of various charging apparatus. Plug into a 16-50 outlet, even outside. I'm sure there are more rules and regulations we could make up. Once they get involved forget doing anything quickly nor innovative. Best bet it to be an angel so they'll leave you alone. Once the trust is violated, regulators all over your back and it will be many years of perfect behavior before they'll leave you alone.
2) The way they released the 5.8 update. I had said thats what they needed to do, but they did it in the worst possible way. Elon publicly states there's no recall, i.e. no safety issue at all. I had suggested default to no lowering, but display a warning screen and let people accept the risk and re-enable it. Instead Tesla silently slips this out with no option to let it lower at highway speeds. As if they have something to hide or were forced to do it. Pisses off owners who paid for the suspension and makes you worry. Maybe there is a safety issue after all.
3) Another fire is only a matter of time. That won't help the stock.
4) Elon's attitude. Like he's tired of dealing with Tesla. I had always feared they'd be bought or he'd leave. But this is almost worse. For him to stay and try to bring the stock down is almost worse.
Not only do these things not help, they damage the stock long term.
Only 4% of ICE fires are from collision, www.usfa.fema.gov—v13i11.pdf page 6, "Collisions, as a factor contributing to ignition, resulted in 4 percent of all highway vehicle fires". That means one in 25 fires. If you factor that into Elon's risk comparison it makes a Tesla 4x MORE likely to catch on fire than an ICE as a result of a collision. Elon knows this and chose to misrepresent.
This is the short term thread, but once the bleeding finally stops I think we're looking at a really long, slow road to recover to the previous ATHs. NFLX, AAPL, other stocks that had a huge rise, fall, then took 1-2 years to recover. I suspect the short term thread will get a loss less exciting 
Hate to say it DM33 but I think you are getting way too emotional about this. I thought the interviews were quite good and expressly clear. It's not tired of dealing with Tesla, it's tired of dealing with false journalism. Your statistics are totally out of whack as well. It wasn't misrepresentation. Your sample set is only highway vehicle fires from collision and you ignore spontaneous things and road debris. More importantly it's the citation of loss of life.
While I appreciate the post, I'd say you need to re-look at your analysis. If you follow the 5.8 Software release thread, it's looking like a bug in the KPH/MPH conversion which is totally understandable given that Europe is in the cards right now.
While I appreciate the post, I'd say you need to re-look at your analysis. If you follow the 5.8 Software release thread, it's looking like a bug in the KPH/MPH conversion which is totally understandable given that Europe is in the cards right now.
marvinat0rz
Member
Probably a massive amount of margin calls over the last week, followed by people panicking en masse. It's been really interesting following the sentiment on the short-term thread since the earnings call. I am agnostic on the stock short-term, just pointing out that the tone on the forum has become one of all-out panic. This is the perfect recipe for an oversold stock and bargain purchases for the future.
I stopped caring once we were 30% off the all-time high; at this point an additional fall just means a better entry point for a long-term position. Win-win =)
I stopped caring once we were 30% off the all-time high; at this point an additional fall just means a better entry point for a long-term position. Win-win =)
Gtoffo
Member
I think we are already getting the reaction to this.....I think this is the reason for today's sell-off....people are looking at the nasdaq and wondering if we are back to the 2000 bubble....recent news regarding twitter's crazy IPO....the facebook-snapchat 3billion drama, NFLX, FB, as well as TSLA itself have consolidated this idea of a "tech bubble". That's why all of the "momentum" (I hate this definition) stocks are down today.
Okay, just my two cents:
The reason for the drop in price goes a bit deeper than what most analysts/"gurus" have concluded. In my opinion, the price went up due to a very strong output expectations 3-4 years from now, with almost no bumps in the road. Well, now there is a statement by the CEO stating that there are still supply related issues (i.e. limited supply of batteries), which could impact how many vehicles actually get delivered/sold 3-4 years from now. Add on the "flash in the pan" stories about the fires and some of these law suites... you have a perfect opportunity for the shorts to make back some money and the short-term holders of the stock to panic.
Long-term, I think all of this news actually makes for a really strong future growth! In my opinion, I think the statement about the restricted supply of the batteries is a good strategic plan. It's like playing chess and thinking 8 moves ahead. I've argued for a long time that Tesla is not just a auto company... It's a energy management company, which makes great vehicles! With the plans for the super chargers (US and Europe), and with the statements about a potential "giga-factory" to produce the batteries, I'm starting to feel I was quite right! If this is the case, then all of the "competition" from other auto companies could end up being a huge possitive for Tesla in the long term. For example, Toyota and Mercs already have battery pack deals, and BMW just signed a deal with SolarCity for energy deal to their buyers.
My predictions:
Short-term: prices could go down a bit more, but will get to over $150 within 3 months. Potentially far higher or sooner, if the highway department finishes their inspection and they find no reason for recalls or safety concerns.
Long-term: Over $300 within 2 years, and $500 within 4 years.
The reason for the drop in price goes a bit deeper than what most analysts/"gurus" have concluded. In my opinion, the price went up due to a very strong output expectations 3-4 years from now, with almost no bumps in the road. Well, now there is a statement by the CEO stating that there are still supply related issues (i.e. limited supply of batteries), which could impact how many vehicles actually get delivered/sold 3-4 years from now. Add on the "flash in the pan" stories about the fires and some of these law suites... you have a perfect opportunity for the shorts to make back some money and the short-term holders of the stock to panic.
Long-term, I think all of this news actually makes for a really strong future growth! In my opinion, I think the statement about the restricted supply of the batteries is a good strategic plan. It's like playing chess and thinking 8 moves ahead. I've argued for a long time that Tesla is not just a auto company... It's a energy management company, which makes great vehicles! With the plans for the super chargers (US and Europe), and with the statements about a potential "giga-factory" to produce the batteries, I'm starting to feel I was quite right! If this is the case, then all of the "competition" from other auto companies could end up being a huge possitive for Tesla in the long term. For example, Toyota and Mercs already have battery pack deals, and BMW just signed a deal with SolarCity for energy deal to their buyers.
My predictions:
Short-term: prices could go down a bit more, but will get to over $150 within 3 months. Potentially far higher or sooner, if the highway department finishes their inspection and they find no reason for recalls or safety concerns.
Long-term: Over $300 within 2 years, and $500 within 4 years.
For those who are calling that it's a good discount to buy, what good news can you factor in that TSLA will have in the short term? It looks like to me that it will be months until this stock can recover at the current rate of bad news vs good news.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Poll
