Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[sleepyhead]

Not sure if this was discussed earlier, but thought it's relevant to get some insight into NHTSA's reasoning....

http://www-odi.nhtsa.dot.gov/acms/cs/jaxrs/download/doc/UCM447511/INCLA-PE13010-4601.PDF

based on this, I think this confirms that there should be a high likelihood of the Model S being cleared.


I imagine there are many investors waiting like RobertGrease to get the official NHTSA report. I suspect that will move the stock another 20% up or 30% down. more than likely up. i don't believe a good outcome from NHTSA has already been priced in. the fact that a half-story like the continuation of the 5 star rating moved the stock this much, shows what kind of pent up anticipation there is for this report. if you are sitting on the sidelines now, you will miss out on what will be big movement.

20% to 30% will push TSLA over $200. There is no way that a NHTSA clean bill will push the stock so high.

Like I said in another thread, IMO 90% of a potential NHTSA clean bill is already priced in. I would be more worried about the downside of a not so clean bill.

At this point it is looking pretty clear that the bill will be clean and the market is pricing that in.

The real catalysts that I will be looking out for are:

1. Model X production beginning in Q3, 2014. Unveiling of the production model in Detroit? would be a good start.
2. Battery supply constraints resolved and Tesla producing 800 cars/week. This is the big one.
3. Q1 ER and 2014 guidance. Hopefully close to 40k cars delivered. 35k will be good, but 40k would be great.

Too much focus here a NHTSA report and I don't think it will be a big deal. Unless TSLA is in the midst of a pullback in which case it will help a lot (just like today).

 

[TSLA Siempre]

20% up from here is about 180. i think it could get there with a clean bill of health from nhtsa. agree 200 is not going to happen. a negative report, i'm guessing could send it down 30% which would be around 105. i don't believe a good report is priced in yet. too many people like robertgrease out there. in fact, i'm still nervous about it myself even though i'm long big (for me) on TSLA. the stock trades on momentum. it can go up with same velocity as it has come down.

 

[772]

TSLA took a hit from about $175 before the Q3 earning were announced, then went further south after the 3rd fire. A clean NHTSA report will push TSLA higher, but part of that move up was already captured by the clean German report and now this NHTSA safety rating. I think 165-175 is possible after the report, but we will need more good news to push past that. Although, the effects of a short squeeze should not be ruled out :wink:

 

[DaveT]

Short interest as of 12/13/13 (settled date) was published today (Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest - NASDAQ.com). Since it takes 3 business days to settle, the 12/13/13 settled date is reflective of short interest as the end of trading on 12/10/13.

So as of 12/10/13, 30.34m out of 80.91m shares of the float were short OR 37.5% of the float was short.

Settlement Date	Short Interest	Avg Daily Share Volume	Days To Cover	Stock price (3 days before settlement date)
12/13/2013	30,343,842	11,309,668	2.683000	142.19
11/29/2013	29,155,653	14,276,160	2.042262	120.84
11/15/2013	25,390,455	16,974,121	1.495833	137.80
10/31/2013	21,419,497	9,851,553	2.174225	162.86
10/15/2013	20,813,894	13,356,976	1.558279	172.93
9/30/2013	20,931,318	8,540,203	2.450916	185.24

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Like I said in another thread, IMO 90% of a potential NHTSA clean bill is already priced in. I would be more worried about the downside of a not so clean bill.

At this point it is looking pretty clear that the bill will be clean and the market is pricing that in.

My take is that half of a clean bill is priced in, but that there are still a number of people who won't be convinced until the final report is published.

But yes, a not clean bill downside is much steeper IMO, because fear is a more powerful emotion than greed.

 

[Jack6591]

Christmas Eve was an abbreviated trading day. I imagine (guess), that may traders were not at work.

Any thoughts on what Thursday's trading will look like?

 

[Papafox]

Christmas Eve was an abbreviated trading day. I imagine (guess), that may traders were not at work.

Any thoughts on what Thursday's trading will look like?

Jackl1956,
We've typically seen small, incremental reductions in stock price after a major price increase, and I'd lean in the direction of expecting a small drop on Thursday. This prediction is based upon continuing Thursday's trend after the major price increase. If there's any news, good or bad, then my prediction goes out the window and the stock price responds to the news. In other words, I gave a WAG but there's a high level of uncertainty in what the price will do.

 

[Julian Cox]

Christmas Eve was an abbreviated trading day. I imagine (guess), that many traders were not at work.

Any thoughts on what Thursday's trading will look like?

+1.

Forget about buyouts, it's a distraction. Never going to happen.

NHTSA announcement has one major significance. It is too risky for the media to continue to neg-hype Tesla fires. We are probably looking at a positive news cycle.

In the opposing corner are nagging bear arguments about overvaluation vs supposed peers (no, the big 3 etc are not Tesla's peers on any level - not same technology, business model. IMO F and TSLA don't even appeal to the same shareholders).

In the middle lie confused channel technicals and the weird phenomenon of a CEO that does not really need to fight for the market's approval any more because Tesla does not need the market's cash any longer.

The last point is very interesting (to me at least). One of the clearest indicators of a sustainable valuation is the fact that the founding visionaries (also largest shareholders) have no interest in selling any shares @ c$20bn mkt cap.

 

[Jack6591]

Somewhat of a late start for premarket trading. Maybe we'll see some pent-up buying.

 

[Norse]

Wtf! Already at 156!

 

[vgrinshpun]

This might be giving the stock additional push up today:

"Hundreds of high-end Tesla electric cars have been ordered or pre-ordered in China in the two months since the carmaker opened its first showroom to the public in Beijing in November."

"Our challenge is how to satisfy the high demand in China," she told Chinese web portal 163.com

Will Tesla by another name sell as sweet?|Across America|chinadaily.com.cn

 

[Causalien]

This might be giving the stock additional push up today:

"Hundreds of high-end Tesla electric cars have been ordered or pre-ordered in China in the two months since the carmaker opened its first showroom to the public in Beijing in November."

"Our challenge is how to satisfy the high demand in China," she told Chinese web portal 163.com

Will Tesla by another name sell as sweet?|Across America|chinadaily.com.cn

Anyone know what is the strike price of the Daimler call that they sold and when they sold it? Ditto for the put they bought?

 

[Julian Cox]

Nice support at $155 tracking the high on the 24th. The bulls can probably smell that a squeeze is on the cards. Would be a hoot to see the shorts pay the stock back to $180 after the over-hyped fire bs.

One other thing caught my attention - the sooner one thinks through the intractable structural problems that the concept of a 'GM acquisition' presents - everything from financing to engineering to dealers, the sooner one can comprehensively throw out the bear case that the likes of GM is a member of a Tesla peer group for valuation purposes.

 

[Johan]

Looking good for 2014 guys! Glad I didn't liquidate those Jan2014 calls for salvage value. With the latest data on short interest I guess another squeeze is written in the stars. Will they never learn? 2014 will be the prequel and 2015 will be the years when EVs really take off.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Moderator's Note: I've moved a batch of posts to a new thread: CNBC: Tesla might find a buyer in 2014: Pro

 

[TSLAopt]

Looking good for 2014 guys! Glad I didn't liquidate those Jan2014 calls for salvage value. With the latest data on short interest I guess another squeeze is written in the stars. Will they never learn? 2014 will be the prequel and 2015 will be the years when EVs really take off.

Anyone see this guy from Baird on CNBC today? He seemed to be right on calling the top
‘Bumps in the road’ for Tesla: Analyst

 

[PeterJA]

Anyone see this guy from Baird on CNBC today? He seemed to be right on calling the top
‘Bumps in the road’ for Tesla: Analyst

He forecasts "bumps in the road" that will bring TSLA closer to $100 before $200... without specifying a single one. Pretty cushy job. But I forgive him for the look of utter contempt he wears as Gordon Johnson blathers on about solar in China.

 

[TSLAopt]

He forecasts "bumps in the road" that will bring TSLA closer to $100 before $200... without specifying a single one. Pretty cushy job. But I forgive him for the look of utter contempt he wears as Gordon Johnson blathers on about solar in China.

Yeah, I wonder what any of the ex-analysts think of him here, Ben Kallo. Sleepy,do you have an opinion on his work by any chance?
seems like he is right up your alley with solar stocks and was curious what you thought about his work and how sound it is

 

[bonaire]

Anyone see this guy from Baird on CNBC today? He seemed to be right on calling the top
‘Bumps in the road’ for Tesla: Analyst

Did Baird call the top in the past? He sounded a little strange on that interview. The other analyst spoke of solar in a whole lot more competent manner, citing facts from China directly. The Baird guy was saying he would rather be in SCTY over Tesla. But really didn't give details. Interview didn't give much info.

i see Baird reiterated neutral before the ER in early Nov.

 

[FANGO]

Did Baird call the top in the past? He sounded a little strange on that interview. The other analyst spoke of solar in a whole lot more competent manner, citing facts from China directly. The Baird guy was saying he would rather be in SCTY over Tesla. But really didn't give details. Interview didn't give much info.

i see Baird reiterated neutral before the ER in early Nov.

Baird didn't so much "call the top" as they downgraded the stock earlier the same day as the news of the Seattle incident. Dropped on the downgrade first, and then the media decided to spend the next 2 months reporting about non-issues and we all know how that went.