Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[ShortSlaver]

I just sold half my shares for $111 - bought at $27.50. Only held them for 9 months in my taxable account so the taxes are going to be horrible. But I am not financially savvy at all, and all I know is that the stock is where I dreamed it would be a year from now, and it's time to take some profits. Will probably be kicking myself in 3 months when it would have been a long term gain, but I'm not smart enough or have enough time to sit and watch TSLA and try to time it. Happy with what I've made so far!

Congrats for hanging on to everything this long! I know many of us dumped portions weeks ago and since. I've rebought some positions, to be sure. Sometimes you have to take the money and run and although the taxes will be awful, you have quite a few months before you need to figure that out. Being so close to capital gains, I'm sure you did the math and saw where TSLA would have to be to make it a wash.

Most of my profits have come from options so I too will be experiencing tax hell next year too. However, it's a great problem to have.

 

[Johan]

Your US short term/long term taxation issue adds another dimension of complexity to the timing decisions. Here in Norway we just have one capital gains tax - 28% - short term or long term.

 

[toastypasta]

Congrats for hanging on to everything this long! I know many of us dumped portions weeks ago and since. I've rebought some positions, to be sure. Sometimes you have to take the money and run and although the taxes will be awful, you have quite a few months before you need to figure that out. Being so close to capital gains, I'm sure you did the math and saw where TSLA would have to be to make it a wash.

Most of my profits have come from options so I too will be experiencing tax hell next year too. However, it's a great problem to have.

Sames.
Going to be a horrible tax year.

 

[Royal TS(LA)]

@ Shortslaver:

Just being curious.. how many % deductions are you talking here? Where I live, there is a fixed 25% tax on stock trades.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Most of my profits have come from options so I too will be experiencing tax hell next year too. However, it's a great problem to have.

I realized this weekend that selling about half my options (enough to pay for half a Model S almost) will create a tax burden for me close to the $7500 federal rebate. I'd still have all my stock and the other half of the options. Good way or bad way to take care of my tax problem? I'm only half kidding

 

[Norse]

Sorry to go off topic! But man I am looking forward to see the epic first day when(if ever) SpaceX Stocks comes available. 3 times the first day? Dont think there will be that many Shorters thou

 

[Jcmason]

I don't believe any kind of charting applies to TSLA right now but then again I know little about it overall - especially this kind. I do, however, agree with that short term price exactly. The pushes up on higher volume are almost always great indicators. People want this stock and it's a self fulling prophecy. For now.

I'm not a fan of it used in isolation, but I think this is actually quite a good time to complement a solid understanding of the fundamentals (which, unlike lots of so-called experts, most of us on here actually have) with technical analysis, which is basically just visualizing and attempting to predict behavior based on market sentiment. This stock, more than just about any I can remember since the late 90's, is being driven (in the short term) by an incredible emotional tug of war. When there's a really clear signal like this one, at least it's another tool to support our short-term decision-making. It's helped me, at least, so thought it was worth sharing in case others found it useful. Again, your mileage may vary...

 

[ShortSlaver]

@ Shortslaver:

Just being curious.. how many % deductions are you talking here? Where I live, there is a fixed 25% tax on stock trades.

In the USA, this type of financial transaction is taxed at your income tax rate. I live in NYC so I may have other taxes associated with it too. But, I plan on seeing about 35% of my gains taken from me. Fair enough, it's how it works. But it will hurt. IF you hold a stock for 1 year, then the tax rate is fixed at 18% (20% now?) and is known as a "long term capital gain". Everything I've made is short term so it's considered income.

I might have my company start to take a bit more out of my check so I will have covered more for taxes. Or possibly just calculate the tax money and put it in US Treasuries for a year. I could also pay off some student loan interest to balance it out - will need an accountant to see the best route for me.

Like I said, good problem to have.

 

[Royal TS(LA)]

@ Shortslaver:

Thanx a lot for your explanation, good Sir. And yes.. good problems to have .

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

In the USA, this type of financial transaction is taxed at your income tax rate. I live in NYC so I may have other taxes associated with it too. But, I plan on seeing about 35% of my gains taken from me. Fair enough, it's how it works. But it will hurt. IF you hold a stock for 1 year, then the tax rate is fixed at 18% (20% now?) and is known as a "long term capital gain". Everything I've made is short term so it's considered income.

Long term matters on tax bracket as well. My marginal tax rate is 25% for my "normal income" so I pay 25% on short term gains but my long term rate is 15%.

 

[kenliles]

you idiots should have put money in AAPL, so you'd have tons of losses to counter these gains for your taxes, like I did. Can't believe you guys were dumb enough not to (un)capitalize on that opportunity...

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Something is really wrong. I am very bullish and my own models predict a fundamental basis for TSLA to trade between $80 - $130. This is over the entire year though. This current run up in price has me astonished. I am not convinced it is sustainable. All I can say is that new investors at this price should be wary. However the long term basis for TSLA at this price is totally fine. If your horizon is 2 - 3 years, $110 for a share of TSLA is a bargain. I am not sure this will last over the next month though.

The run up in price does seem irrational. I think it's a perfect storm of new investors (or speculators) wanting to get in on TSLA before it's too late, short sellers being crushed by margin calls, and intense media attention acting as a catalyst.

 

[mitch672]

you idiots should have put money in AAPL, so you'd have tons of losses to counter these gains for your taxes, like I did. Can't believe you guys were dumb enough not to (un)capitalize on that opportunity...

rotflol I was looking at AAPL last week when it was in the $450 area as a possible investment, it does pay about. $12/year for a dividend, then common sense prevailed

 

[Russell]

you idiots should have put money in AAPL, so you'd have tons of losses to counter these gains for your taxes, like I did. Can't believe you guys were dumb enough not to (un)capitalize on that opportunity...

I'm so glad I sold my aapl in Jan and put it in tsla and scty. I've tripled my money.

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

That might take sales away from the X, not sure they'd announce them together.
As to G3 technology, as I posted on SA, Tesla could do around a 45kWh pack today using the 3.4ah Panasonic cells already available. With a smaller frontal area and if they get an even better coefficient of drag than the S it could hit 225 wh/mi to just maybe squeak out a 200 mile range, but definitely 180 miles. (Roadster hit 220 wh/mi for the 240 mile range). Smaller motor, smaller inverter, lighter battery pack, shorter and narrower wheelbase would all add up to a much lighter and less expensive vehicle. Using Musk Math the stripped down base model could be priced around $45K and come in the $30K's after rebates.
I don't think they are going to move the G3 up by much but I don't think technology is the barrier.

As usual, I've been letting this thread slide for the past week, so sorry for the late reply.

Been doing a lot of research on battery technology recently and I agree 100%. Tesla could do, or come close to doing a credible Gen III right now, so I am getting to the point of just assuming that we'll see Gen III in 2016.

Their recent hires, and the time needed for a credible development program (along with the need to strike while the iron is hot) lead me to expect an Alpha reveal of a Gen III prototype within 12 months, and possibly before 2013 is out.

 

[moltenfire]

you idiots should have put money in AAPL, so you'd have tons of losses to counter these gains for your taxes, like I did. Can't believe you guys were dumb enough not to (un)capitalize on that opportunity...

Heh, I'm an AAPL refugee too I was trying to delay my AAPL sale to 2013 so I don't have to pay as much in taxes, but you know what, in the first half of 2013 AAPL dropped WAY more than if I had sold in Nov/Dec 2012. So, the lesson here is DO NOT LET TAX CONSIDERATIONS DICTATE WHEN YOU NEED TO SELL.

Now, I have a six-figure loss for 2013 and I don't have to worry about capital gains for a LONG time.

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

"Honest, it's all over. Come on out. It's safe, honest. There see, dip your toe back in, the water is fine."

"AAAUGGGGH! Tsunami shark!"

Ok, yeah, reading this a week late, but, LOL.

 

[aznt1217]

It's a matter of level of profitability. At this point, they need to pour a ton of money to scale production and ensure a stable level of quality. Furthermore, perception needs to change even more so then now. There are a lot of people who don't believe in the EV revolution yet (ignorance). When 2017 rolls around the cost will have come down a lot on batteries/tech due to Moore's Law, factory would be expanded, Tesla's brand presence increased, it'll make sense then.

As usual, I've been letting this thread slide for the past week, so sorry for the late reply.

Been doing a lot of research on battery technology recently and I agree 100%. Tesla could do, or come close to doing a credible Gen III right now, so I am getting to the point of just assuming that we'll see Gen III in 2016.

Their recent hires, and the time needed for a credible development program (along with the need to strike while the iron is hot) lead me to expect an Alpha reveal of a Gen III prototype within 12 months, and possibly before 2013 is out.

 

[nursebee]

Interesting price action. I recall someone saying that the price could move up once all the short term price followers got out.

 

[eddiequest]

The "corner"

Not sure how many already believe profitability is around the corner.

13.65% in one day.... The corner is here.