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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
Refer to post above by CLprenz...NEVER SELL!
Personally, I am using options profits to fund a purchase of a Model S and have a core stock holding which I plan not touch for at least 3 years...
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
Now that I have my Model S, the stress is all gone. The only TSLA I have to sell in 2014 is enough to cover the minimum distribution for my IRA.
Now I only have to watch and enjoy. If it drops 20 points.. So what? It'll eventually go back up.
Now I only have to watch and enjoy. If it drops 20 points.. So what? It'll eventually go back up.
Norse
Active Member
Benz
Active Member
I'm thinking it's unlikely that we will see a sub-$100 price for TSLA ever again. Recent digestive period is over and Q2 earnings is soon, thus giving stock momentum. As long as Tesla doesn't disappoint with Q2 earnings it's hard to see the stock dipping under $100.
However, the main reason from a bigger picture perspective is that the stock is gaining more long-term holders/believers every week, especially with new cars being shipped to delighted customers. Those customers become huge fans, tell all their friends, and end up buying stock to hold long-term because they believe the long-term story (Gen III and beyond). This ends up shrinking the available number of shares available for short-term traders and gradually inflates the stock price. Basically the "cult of Tesla" is gaining believers everyday and they are buying up stock to keep long-term (more folks like Clprenz who are saying "I am never selling any shares anymore" or AustinEV who says "I will sell some in 2018").
Available shares that are out of the hands of long-term believers start to shrink, thus driving up stock price. It won't happen all at once but I think we'll see this trend gradually continue until at least Gen III release. From now until at least 5 years out the main complaint from people will be "TSLA is priced too high. It's trading at a ridiculous 2xx+ P/E. etc." And it's true to a certain extent. People won't be buying TSLA stock based on current earnings but on very forward earnings which will feel more and more certain to believers as Gen III approaches. In other words, to buy TSLA at any point you'll need to be a believer the mass market story of Tesla. And the main reason why people won't be buying TSLA is because they think the stock price is too pricey and they're not convinced Tesla will sell millions of cars.
We'll have a lot of ups and downs along the way but as long as demand is strong for Tesla's cars we'll likely see a strong uptrend.
ps., as I write this I'm reminded when back in November I posted a comment saying that I didn't think we'd see sub-30s ever again (which turned out to be true), TSLA Investor Discussions - Page 368
However, the main reason from a bigger picture perspective is that the stock is gaining more long-term holders/believers every week, especially with new cars being shipped to delighted customers. Those customers become huge fans, tell all their friends, and end up buying stock to hold long-term because they believe the long-term story (Gen III and beyond). This ends up shrinking the available number of shares available for short-term traders and gradually inflates the stock price. Basically the "cult of Tesla" is gaining believers everyday and they are buying up stock to keep long-term (more folks like Clprenz who are saying "I am never selling any shares anymore" or AustinEV who says "I will sell some in 2018").
Available shares that are out of the hands of long-term believers start to shrink, thus driving up stock price. It won't happen all at once but I think we'll see this trend gradually continue until at least Gen III release. From now until at least 5 years out the main complaint from people will be "TSLA is priced too high. It's trading at a ridiculous 2xx+ P/E. etc." And it's true to a certain extent. People won't be buying TSLA stock based on current earnings but on very forward earnings which will feel more and more certain to believers as Gen III approaches. In other words, to buy TSLA at any point you'll need to be a believer the mass market story of Tesla. And the main reason why people won't be buying TSLA is because they think the stock price is too pricey and they're not convinced Tesla will sell millions of cars.
We'll have a lot of ups and downs along the way but as long as demand is strong for Tesla's cars we'll likely see a strong uptrend.
ps., as I write this I'm reminded when back in November I posted a comment saying that I didn't think we'd see sub-30s ever again (which turned out to be true), TSLA Investor Discussions - Page 368
mitch672
Active Member
Let me tell you a story: I owned 1,000 TSLA, average price was about $28.50.
It flirted with $50, droped down, headed up again, dropped down....
I said "Next time it get near $50, I am selling it all, I'll buyback in at a lower price". Well, I was able to sell the position at $47, made nearly an $18K profit.
a week later, I said "what the hell am I doing?", so I bought back 300 shares @ $52 (1/3 of my position at $5/share higher). The theory was I was only going to put the "gains" into the stock. And this is what the position is as of today, still.
So I have a nice gain of 300 shares from $52 to todays close of $117 or so, but wouldn't I have been better off with 1,000 shares from $28.50 to $117? yup, that would have been a smarter move. Capital gains don't have to be considered because the shares are held in my 401K.
It's the difference between $117K - $28.5K (would have been $88.5K in paper profits)
VS
where I am: $18.5K of booked profit + [$35,100 (300 shares @ 117) - $15,600 (300 shares cost @ 52) or $19,500 paper profit]. $38K total profit currently.
Big difference between $88.5K versus $38K (yup, this bonehead move cost me $50K) My advice, don't do it. It will cost you shares, and your position long term, because you won't get back it, or will miss the opportunity to get back in.
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deonb
Active Member
when you see more people post things like that about TSLA then that's the time to sell...a la AAPL goes to $1000!
AAPL is their own undoing...
Hey Tim, we got this $100 billion dollars sitting in the bank account. Any idea what we can spend it on??
No idea.
How about new sectors? Surely there must be some new and emerging new technologies out there?
Nope.
No new technology? 3D printing? Electric cars? Nano-technology? Materials?
All fads.
How about just using the interest on that to hire 35'000 Engineers perpetually in all random fields of science & engineering and see if someone creates something of value?
We already have Siri.
Ok... I guess we can return it to shareholders.
Sounds good to me!
ShortSlaver
Member
Buy some puts at that level if you're interested in hedging. They're rather cheap for that price and if TSLA did manage to fall that far and beyond you'd be covered.
Also, even if they don't fall at all the options expire worthless you have some capital losses you can use.
There was news of the upgrade by Jeffries. That would have caused some buying pressure, and there are more and more people who won't sell, based on what we're reading here anyway.
QFT. I think APPL is waiting for the next big thing to come to their door looking for the highest bidder instead of them developing it.
smorgasbord
Active Member
Ever?
What did Netflix stock owners think when the stock was pushing $300 that they'd never get below $200 again? Well, it ended up dipping well below $60. Who knows what bad news could come?
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I could definitely be wrong, but I'm just calling it like I see it.
If you read the replies to my comment back in November about stock not going under 30 ever again (TSLA Investor Discussions - Page 368), most people disagreed with me at the time saying that it will dip. But we had already cross a turning point (MT COY) and Tesla was gaining momentum. It never dipped under 30 since.
The way I see the stock is I consider the secondary offering at $92 as what should have been the Tesla IPO. In other words, if Elon had his way that's when he might have IPO'ed. But Tesla was struggling and needed capital and thus IPO'ed in 2010 which wasn't ideal. They didn't have predictable growing revenue and everything was based mostly on promises of a supposedly coming Model S in 2012. And in 2012 they had setbacks like not being able to deliver 5000 cars like they promised. They had to drastically reduce guidance for cars shipped, revenue, etc.
All this led to a drastic undervaluing of TSLA. TSLA at $30 was really just way too low for what TSLA was really worth IMO (esp. after receiving MT COY). People were clouded with disappointing earnings results quarter after quarter and doubting the future of the company. When I bought in in 2012, I remember telling my wife that TSLA is worth $10-15b at that point and we're getting a huge bargain.
So now that TSLA is worth $10-15b, I'm not very surprised at the valuation. I thought it was worth that back in late 2012. Now I think TSLA is currently worth $15-25b, so I still think it's undervalued from my perspective. I just think people are catching on and you have more and more long-term believers of the ridiculously large market cap potential of Tesla over the next several years.
For Tesla to have a Netflix-like dive, there really has to be some very, very significant news that decreases Model S demand in a meaningful way. That could happen, sure. But right now I don't think it's a realistic possibility. It's more of a theoretically possibility.
As long as Tesla can maintain it's greatest strength which is it's phenomenal demand resulting from a phenomenal product, then there's no reason to think we won't see it keep uptrending.
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this is pretty much my sotry....however unfortunately had a much bigger discrepency between selling and buying them back.
hence, i agree completely. hold tight. when car mags, consumer reports and cnn start gushing about the gen 3 then its time to start THINKING of selling...
ShortSlaver
Member
If TSLA is going to take a crap it's mid-next year at the earliest I think as demand for Model S will not wane this year. Next year will be the test to see if they can indeed get past the new factor and still have an audience large enough to buy even more Model S cars than this year. If they start seeing flat or negative gains next year this stock will go down to $60. Until then there is just too much momentum pushing it up as there are no signs of them slowing down.
The stock is priced more and more at a premium as Tesla continues to beat expectations and everyone begins to see that "holy crap, this could actually work!".
I have friends that know nothing about cars and just recently learned about Tesla through me and are amazed at it and joyous that an EV could actually work. Keep in mind so much of the world has no idea what Tesla is and there is so much room to grow.
The stock is priced more and more at a premium as Tesla continues to beat expectations and everyone begins to see that "holy crap, this could actually work!".
I have friends that know nothing about cars and just recently learned about Tesla through me and are amazed at it and joyous that an EV could actually work. Keep in mind so much of the world has no idea what Tesla is and there is so much room to grow.
rolosrevenge
Dr. EVS
I still think that these prices are based on people expecting Tesla to beat expectations. If Tesla merely meets them, the stock will fall, if Tesla doesn't meet them, they will fall a lot. Model S alone doesn't justify this price. Tesla is a growth company so they've got to show serious growth. If Model X has some hangups or is late the stock will adjust I think. We're in a period where, after the short squeeze, lot's of trend followers jumped in because of the press. They don't know what they're into and will panic at bad news. So far, there hasn't been any but we'll see. If I'm wrong, then I'll miss out on a lot of gains, if I'm right, I'll buy back when it drops down.
ShortSlaver
Member
Everyone on this forum needs to listen to Curt Renz's advice on here. Not to put him on the spot or put words in his mouth but patience is key here. Buy your stock and hold it. Patience. Buy options if you want to play around with quick cash. But just buying and holding has been the absolute best strategy to date.
smorgasbord
Active Member
First, props for a gusty call last November - I think even on a down day where Tesla came pretty close to $31.
All kinds of things could happen. A Panasonic battery factory could catch fire. A Republican could win the presidency and kill the Fed Tax rebate. Elon could catch a cold.
Naturally, I hope you're right. As much TSLA as I owned, I bought some more recently at ~$95.
All kinds of things could happen. A Panasonic battery factory could catch fire. A Republican could win the presidency and kill the Fed Tax rebate. Elon could catch a cold.
Naturally, I hope you're right. As much TSLA as I owned, I bought some more recently at ~$95.
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